Aaron Schatz
@aaronschatz.com
Chief Analytics Officer, FTN Fantasy. ESPN NFL writer. Former radio DJ. Founder of Football Outsiders, creator of DVOA, All-Pro/MVP voter.
New DVOA commentary looks at the upcoming DVOA Bowl between the Rams and the Seahawks; why the Patriots don't rank high; and units that have turned things around since Week 6 both good (Bengals offense, Bucs defense) and bad (Commanders on both sides).
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-10-...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-10-...
Week 10 DVOA Ratings: Rising Rams Set Up DVOA Bowl with Seahawks
The Rams moved into the No. 2 spot to set up a DVOA Bowl with the Seahawks: No. 1 against No. 2 on Sunday afternoon.
ftnfantasy.com
November 11, 2025 at 4:59 PM
New DVOA commentary looks at the upcoming DVOA Bowl between the Rams and the Seahawks; why the Patriots don't rank high; and units that have turned things around since Week 6 both good (Bengals offense, Bucs defense) and bad (Commanders on both sides).
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-10-...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-10-...
Thought: Bills at Patriots, Colts at Seahawks, Chargers at Chiefs and Lions at Rams all Week 15. Flex alert. Sunday night is currently Vikings-Cowboys. Monday night is currently Dolphins-Steelers. Would the NFL move the Cowboys or Steelers out of prime time for a better game?
November 11, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Thought: Bills at Patriots, Colts at Seahawks, Chargers at Chiefs and Lions at Rams all Week 15. Flex alert. Sunday night is currently Vikings-Cowboys. Monday night is currently Dolphins-Steelers. Would the NFL move the Cowboys or Steelers out of prime time for a better game?
Sunday will be the DVOA BOWL! No. 1 vs. No. 2 as the Seahawks play the Rams. Here's a look at all the regular-season matchups of 1 and 2 since 2000. No. 2 often wins and remember, the Rams are the home team on Sunday.
November 11, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Sunday will be the DVOA BOWL! No. 1 vs. No. 2 as the Seahawks play the Rams. Here's a look at all the regular-season matchups of 1 and 2 since 2000. No. 2 often wins and remember, the Rams are the home team on Sunday.
DVOA Playoff Odds now updated.
Some Super Bowl odds:
Matt Hasselbeck Classic (SEA-IND) 8.6%
Gunther Cunningham Classic (DET-KC) 3.8%
Super Bowls XXXVI-LIII Rematch (LAR-NE) 1.8%
The Delaware Tollbooth Traffic Jam (PHI-BAL) 1.5%
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
Some Super Bowl odds:
Matt Hasselbeck Classic (SEA-IND) 8.6%
Gunther Cunningham Classic (DET-KC) 3.8%
Super Bowls XXXVI-LIII Rematch (LAR-NE) 1.8%
The Delaware Tollbooth Traffic Jam (PHI-BAL) 1.5%
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LX
NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LIX based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.
ftnfantasy.com
November 11, 2025 at 3:11 PM
DVOA Playoff Odds now updated.
Some Super Bowl odds:
Matt Hasselbeck Classic (SEA-IND) 8.6%
Gunther Cunningham Classic (DET-KC) 3.8%
Super Bowls XXXVI-LIII Rematch (LAR-NE) 1.8%
The Delaware Tollbooth Traffic Jam (PHI-BAL) 1.5%
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
Some Super Bowl odds:
Matt Hasselbeck Classic (SEA-IND) 8.6%
Gunther Cunningham Classic (DET-KC) 3.8%
Super Bowls XXXVI-LIII Rematch (LAR-NE) 1.8%
The Delaware Tollbooth Traffic Jam (PHI-BAL) 1.5%
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
Deleted my Colts-Eagles post. Totally forgot about the head coaches! (smacks self in forehead)
November 11, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Deleted my Colts-Eagles post. Totally forgot about the head coaches! (smacks self in forehead)
I would love to write a nuanced discussion of my preseason NFC East projections and where they were right and wrong, and what we can learn from that.
I don't think Eagles fans want nuanced so instead I offer this thread for them to enjoy the schadenfreude. Get it out of your system, it's boring me.
I don't think Eagles fans want nuanced so instead I offer this thread for them to enjoy the schadenfreude. Get it out of your system, it's boring me.
November 11, 2025 at 4:27 AM
I would love to write a nuanced discussion of my preseason NFC East projections and where they were right and wrong, and what we can learn from that.
I don't think Eagles fans want nuanced so instead I offer this thread for them to enjoy the schadenfreude. Get it out of your system, it's boring me.
I don't think Eagles fans want nuanced so instead I offer this thread for them to enjoy the schadenfreude. Get it out of your system, it's boring me.
I thought ESPN Analytics never said to punt?
November 11, 2025 at 4:19 AM
I thought ESPN Analytics never said to punt?
Middle of the Packers line, with the backup center, completely gives way.
November 11, 2025 at 4:15 AM
Middle of the Packers line, with the backup center, completely gives way.
Eagles will now be 6-1 in one-score games.
As we know from the Kansas City Chiefs of the last two years, success in one-score games is incredibly consistent over time.
(I kid. They did make the big plays when it counted tonight.)
As we know from the Kansas City Chiefs of the last two years, success in one-score games is incredibly consistent over time.
(I kid. They did make the big plays when it counted tonight.)
November 11, 2025 at 4:11 AM
Eagles will now be 6-1 in one-score games.
As we know from the Kansas City Chiefs of the last two years, success in one-score games is incredibly consistent over time.
(I kid. They did make the big plays when it counted tonight.)
As we know from the Kansas City Chiefs of the last two years, success in one-score games is incredibly consistent over time.
(I kid. They did make the big plays when it counted tonight.)
Play action on third-and-10 from your own 10? Sure, I suppose.
November 11, 2025 at 4:05 AM
Play action on third-and-10 from your own 10? Sure, I suppose.
Illegal formation penalties make me want to pull my hair out.
November 11, 2025 at 3:28 AM
Illegal formation penalties make me want to pull my hair out.
The Eagles were only 17th in DVOA on defense coming into this game. Maybe Jaelen Phillips is the MVP?
November 11, 2025 at 2:39 AM
The Eagles were only 17th in DVOA on defense coming into this game. Maybe Jaelen Phillips is the MVP?
Good halftime read.
How Elon Musk’s Changes to X Made Our Discourse Far Stupider by Dave Weigel talkingpointsmemo.com/tpm-25/how-e... talkingpointsmemo.com/tpm-25/how-e...
How Elon Musk’s Changes to X Made Our Discourse Far Stupider
We don’t know the minute when X started throttling links to news,...
talkingpointsmemo.com
November 11, 2025 at 2:37 AM
Good halftime read.
They blocked Parsons pretty well on that third-and-long but it didn't matter.
November 11, 2025 at 2:21 AM
They blocked Parsons pretty well on that third-and-long but it didn't matter.
If you're the defender, though, why are you hooking the receiver's arm when the pass is SIX FEET OVER HIS HEAD?
That ball was six feet over Dallas Geodert's head.
November 11, 2025 at 2:17 AM
If you're the defender, though, why are you hooking the receiver's arm when the pass is SIX FEET OVER HIS HEAD?
That ball was six feet over Dallas Geodert's head.
November 11, 2025 at 2:16 AM
That ball was six feet over Dallas Geodert's head.
The most alpha book from 1870 to 1930 was Edwin Abbott's Flatland, of course.
*maximum alpha at 1.25x speed* continuously lives on in my head, unfortunately.
November 11, 2025 at 2:11 AM
The most alpha book from 1870 to 1930 was Edwin Abbott's Flatland, of course.
If you combined TreVeyon Henderson with Packers tight end John FitzPatrick you would have TrEVeYon FitZPaTriCK.
November 11, 2025 at 2:10 AM
If you combined TreVeyon Henderson with Packers tight end John FitzPatrick you would have TrEVeYon FitZPaTriCK.
Note: I may be slightly bitter because I'm losing in a fantasy league where Love is my bye week backup to Mahomes.
Alright baby, let's go run run incomplete again!
November 11, 2025 at 2:08 AM
Note: I may be slightly bitter because I'm losing in a fantasy league where Love is my bye week backup to Mahomes.
Alright baby, let's go run run incomplete again!
November 11, 2025 at 2:06 AM
Alright baby, let's go run run incomplete again!
Oh no did we make the coaches' jobs harder by making them have to make strategic decisions? The horror.
November 11, 2025 at 1:59 AM
Oh no did we make the coaches' jobs harder by making them have to make strategic decisions? The horror.
Man, the Packers really decided they wanted to run the ball tonight, huh?
November 11, 2025 at 1:57 AM
Man, the Packers really decided they wanted to run the ball tonight, huh?
They don't show "PUNT" when it is fourth-and-12 because they assume you are not a moron.
Do ESPN Analytics ever suggest anything but GO on fourth down?
November 11, 2025 at 1:55 AM
They don't show "PUNT" when it is fourth-and-12 because they assume you are not a moron.
I would like it if Microsoft had a commerical that explained how to turn their new AI off. Stop bothering me.
November 11, 2025 at 1:45 AM
I would like it if Microsoft had a commerical that explained how to turn their new AI off. Stop bothering me.