Anchorage Man
@sethpartnow.bsky.social
Current: Staff Product Scientist @ Teamworks
Author: “The Midrange Theory”
Prev: Director of Basketball Research @
Milwaukee Bucks. Dir. N. American Sports @ StatsBomb. NBA analysis @ The Athletic. NBA DS @ Penn Entertainment.
Author: “The Midrange Theory”
Prev: Director of Basketball Research @
Milwaukee Bucks. Dir. N. American Sports @ StatsBomb. NBA analysis @ The Athletic. NBA DS @ Penn Entertainment.
This is a great proof of something I’ve long suspected: the rise of threes doesn’t have has much impact on game-to-game variance in results as is commonly understood.
open.substack.com/pub/binomial...
open.substack.com/pub/binomial...
The NBA's 3-point Variance Lie
Does shooting more 3's increase your variance?
open.substack.com
February 14, 2026 at 4:19 PM
This is a great proof of something I’ve long suspected: the rise of threes doesn’t have has much impact on game-to-game variance in results as is commonly understood.
open.substack.com/pub/binomial...
open.substack.com/pub/binomial...
Maybe setting a specific max has such a strong anchoring effect that it induced overpayments but it’s hard to see how that wouldn’t be a worse problem WITHOUT an individual max.
I will say that the supermax really didn't do as advertised. Instead of every team using it to keep their star players, it seemed to incentivize trading that player, or being stuck not able to build around them. (Outside of a few cases where the player was top 5ish)
February 14, 2026 at 4:14 PM
Maybe setting a specific max has such a strong anchoring effect that it induced overpayments but it’s hard to see how that wouldn’t be a worse problem WITHOUT an individual max.
The last 3 were all bad decisions under the old system too. The 2nd Apron just made this blindingly obvious because of the mechanical penalties.
I think all of these:
Trae Young (Aug., 2021)
Zach LaVine (July, 2022)
Damian Lillard (July, 2022) and even Anthony Davis (April, 2023) to a degree were done without knowing or truly understanding how the rules changing would impact those teams.
Trae Young (Aug., 2021)
Zach LaVine (July, 2022)
Damian Lillard (July, 2022) and even Anthony Davis (April, 2023) to a degree were done without knowing or truly understanding how the rules changing would impact those teams.
February 14, 2026 at 4:12 PM
The last 3 were all bad decisions under the old system too. The 2nd Apron just made this blindingly obvious because of the mechanical penalties.
Fortune favors the bold, or so I’m told.
I think it has driven some teams crazy when Dallas followed that by winning the lottery. That’ll rattle your sense of justice for sure.
February 14, 2026 at 1:21 PM
Fortune favors the bold, or so I’m told.
Miami has the advantage of nearly unique stability which among other things has enabled them to set up and maintain a pretty darn good player identification and talent pipeline. Which is quite useful in team building!
Except Miami’s leadership. They’ve way settled for exactly that. Took miracles from Butler to push. And the fans kind of switch off because no promise or not having a real chance sux
February 14, 2026 at 1:21 PM
Miami has the advantage of nearly unique stability which among other things has enabled them to set up and maintain a pretty darn good player identification and talent pipeline. Which is quite useful in team building!
Who would do such a thing?
(To be fair, the AD to Wash trade taken on its own is probably fine)
(To be fair, the AD to Wash trade taken on its own is probably fine)
Is "trade top three player for an injured old guy then trade that old guy for a bunch of garbage" one of the examples?
February 14, 2026 at 1:19 PM
Who would do such a thing?
(To be fair, the AD to Wash trade taken on its own is probably fine)
(To be fair, the AD to Wash trade taken on its own is probably fine)
Not to revisit the continued flogging of a dead horse but Dallas deciding “nah we’re good” after a Finals and a WCF in 3 years remains wild to me.
But AI had the luck of accomplishing what every "David" is supposed to do: throw his team on his back and go down valiantly swinging.
Making the Finals is so hard and requires so much luck.
Celebrating Conf finals appearances should be cool and not treating losing as a final 4 team as failure
Making the Finals is so hard and requires so much luck.
Celebrating Conf finals appearances should be cool and not treating losing as a final 4 team as failure
February 14, 2026 at 1:15 PM
Not to revisit the continued flogging of a dead horse but Dallas deciding “nah we’re good” after a Finals and a WCF in 3 years remains wild to me.
Counterpoint is there are only a few examples of any strategy aside from “draft/sign top 3 player” resulting in a championship.
It’s hard and teams starting from the bottom have to choose amongst a bunch of low probability of ultimate success options.
It’s hard and teams starting from the bottom have to choose amongst a bunch of low probability of ultimate success options.
Yeah if you look historically, there’s only a few examples of tanking actually leading to a championship, and those usually require some pretty special circumstances (Cleveland tanking to get Kyrie, but then LeBron comes back, etc.)
Most teams are tanking just to sell fans on the idea of a plan.
Most teams are tanking just to sell fans on the idea of a plan.
February 14, 2026 at 1:14 PM
Counterpoint is there are only a few examples of any strategy aside from “draft/sign top 3 player” resulting in a championship.
It’s hard and teams starting from the bottom have to choose amongst a bunch of low probability of ultimate success options.
It’s hard and teams starting from the bottom have to choose amongst a bunch of low probability of ultimate success options.
I’ve come to the point of sort of feeling like teams that just abjectly tank have only read the first line of the team building recipe and are just sort of hoping the rest of the ingredients happen to be in the pantry.
I get that is a different conversation to the holding players out but I feel like every team feeling like you have to bottom all the way out is because no one really values being a competitive but not threatening middle class tough out anymore. And maybe rightly.
February 14, 2026 at 12:12 PM
I’ve come to the point of sort of feeling like teams that just abjectly tank have only read the first line of the team building recipe and are just sort of hoping the rest of the ingredients happen to be in the pantry.
Rangzzzzz culture is/was a scourge it’s true.
You can't really put the toothpaste back in the bottle but I do think a lot of this is downstream of the widespread adoption of title or bust thinking. And it's not wrong, the whole point is to win. But teams historically didn't really operate like 5-8 seed with no chance to win was the worst.
February 14, 2026 at 12:10 PM
Rangzzzzz culture is/was a scourge it’s true.
Reposted by Anchorage Man
are people really trying to restart the reserve clause from general principles, curt flood rollin in his grave
February 14, 2026 at 11:48 AM
are people really trying to restart the reserve clause from general principles, curt flood rollin in his grave
The issue isn’t “Bad Team Stays Bad Forever” rather its that a large chunk of the league is not only ok with a “developmental” season but also holding healthy players out and doing weird minute stuff. Also not calling timeouts during 17-0 opponent runs in games where losing might be…convenient.
my take is that tanking isn't actually a problem. Every tanking team, minus the Kings, eventually gets good enough to at least TRY after a couple years. Everybody takes their turn in the dregs. Detroit went from historically bad to best in the East! It sorts itself out.
February 14, 2026 at 11:50 AM
The issue isn’t “Bad Team Stays Bad Forever” rather its that a large chunk of the league is not only ok with a “developmental” season but also holding healthy players out and doing weird minute stuff. Also not calling timeouts during 17-0 opponent runs in games where losing might be…convenient.
Have fun assembling that jigsaw. There are inherently tradeoffs in the system. We may or may not like the ones currently in use, but pretending that there’s a single system that solves them all gets in the way of actually improving the whole.
Nothing to do with kinder rules if the players are getting paid the same. Nobody wants a situation where LeBron is stuck in Cleveland but similarly nobody wants a situation where a team needs to be broken up because they aren’t allowed to be together anymore either
February 14, 2026 at 11:47 AM
Have fun assembling that jigsaw. There are inherently tradeoffs in the system. We may or may not like the ones currently in use, but pretending that there’s a single system that solves them all gets in the way of actually improving the whole.
“Homegrown players” getting some kind of favorable treatment under the salary cap is being argued by the same people other where in this same convo.
Is the second part of this a thing? I don't understand what you're referring to.
February 14, 2026 at 11:46 AM
“Homegrown players” getting some kind of favorable treatment under the salary cap is being argued by the same people other where in this same convo.
I can assure you 100% it’s not just a social media thing.
I replied in another thread here, but I think this is all just a social media thing. There’s a dad who bought tickets who missed Luka on a back to back complaining and then the pundits talk about it.
I don’t actually know a real hardcore fan who doesn’t get tanking and the need for tanking.
I don’t actually know a real hardcore fan who doesn’t get tanking and the need for tanking.
February 14, 2026 at 11:44 AM
I can assure you 100% it’s not just a social media thing.
Not sure about the second part but yes to the first.
I can’t for the life of me understand how the ‘give home grown players salary cap exemptions’ proposal wouldn’t result in even more tanking. You would end up with teams 6-7 years in the lottery. And Josh Giddey making 50 million a year.
February 14, 2026 at 11:42 AM
Not sure about the second part but yes to the first.
Hyoooge difference between not understanding how the incentives induce tanking and thinking tanking is not great for the league.
I replied in another thread here, but I think this is all just a social media thing. There’s a dad who bought tickets who missed Luka on a back to back complaining and then the pundits talk about it.
I don’t actually know a real hardcore fan who doesn’t get tanking and the need for tanking.
I don’t actually know a real hardcore fan who doesn’t get tanking and the need for tanking.
February 14, 2026 at 6:25 AM
Hyoooge difference between not understanding how the incentives induce tanking and thinking tanking is not great for the league.
Is now the time to drop my hot take Giannis theory?
Even in the case of a player like Giannis he gave them his entire prime and a championship. I get the feelings involved but honestly you couldn’t ask for more.
It’s worth noting that you’d be hard-pressed to think of a star player that forced their way out who wasn’t at least well into his 2nd contract.
At some point a player has earned a say in where they work, especially in cases where the team that drafted them largely failed to build with/around them.
At some point a player has earned a say in where they work, especially in cases where the team that drafted them largely failed to build with/around them.
February 14, 2026 at 6:00 AM
Is now the time to drop my hot take Giannis theory?
For sure. There are competing interests that need to get balanced and we can’t forget that players are people too.
This is absolutely true, and I don't begrudge players their right to find better situations. I'm just saying it's harder to root for as a fan, even when it's your team that benefits.
February 14, 2026 at 5:59 AM
For sure. There are competing interests that need to get balanced and we can’t forget that players are people too.
A near constant feature of these kind of systemic reform discussions is that people tend to focus nearly exclusively on one particular problem and ignore the extent to which their proposed solution creates or escalates other, perhaps more damaging, ones.
It also ignores the fact that the main point of the salary cap is to reduce competitive imbalances - if teams like okc had ways of reducing the cap impact of their superstars salaries it means they can hoard talent for longer with less penalty
February 14, 2026 at 5:58 AM
A near constant feature of these kind of systemic reform discussions is that people tend to focus nearly exclusively on one particular problem and ignore the extent to which their proposed solution creates or escalates other, perhaps more damaging, ones.
To be fair, that sounds a lot like Murica in general
It’s also funny that the most vocally anti tanking fanbases are the ones who have built good teams through multiple years of lottery picks. They want o have their cake, eat it too, and then make it harder for anyone else to ever get cake.
February 14, 2026 at 5:51 AM
To be fair, that sounds a lot like Murica in general
It’s worth noting that you’d be hard-pressed to think of a star player that forced their way out who wasn’t at least well into his 2nd contract.
At some point a player has earned a say in where they work, especially in cases where the team that drafted them largely failed to build with/around them.
At some point a player has earned a say in where they work, especially in cases where the team that drafted them largely failed to build with/around them.
When people talking about the home grown thing, I think they’re really talking about a way to make it easier for less desirable free agent/forced trade destinations to build around their guys. And people should be more straight forward and say that.
February 14, 2026 at 5:50 AM
It’s worth noting that you’d be hard-pressed to think of a star player that forced their way out who wasn’t at least well into his 2nd contract.
At some point a player has earned a say in where they work, especially in cases where the team that drafted them largely failed to build with/around them.
At some point a player has earned a say in where they work, especially in cases where the team that drafted them largely failed to build with/around them.
It’s funny that people decry tanking for draft purposes on one hand and then argue for special and more favorable treatment for players still with the team that drafted them on the other.
February 14, 2026 at 5:37 AM
It’s funny that people decry tanking for draft purposes on one hand and then argue for special and more favorable treatment for players still with the team that drafted them on the other.
So the fans who watched OKC when they were developing SGA into a star don’t deserve a similar reward?
Perhaps, but it also rewards fans who pay the money. So that seems mildly important, no?
February 14, 2026 at 5:34 AM
So the fans who watched OKC when they were developing SGA into a star don’t deserve a similar reward?
The Spurs basically shuffled everyone else, even guys they drafted, around TD, Manu and Parker.
You CAN keep a core together just fine, you just can’t make a lot of big contract mistakes and do so.
You CAN keep a core together just fine, you just can’t make a lot of big contract mistakes and do so.
I’m spoiled because I grew up in SA and we had Robinson and Duncan, but I’d rather be ‘married’ to players than have a series of relationships.
February 14, 2026 at 5:33 AM
The Spurs basically shuffled everyone else, even guys they drafted, around TD, Manu and Parker.
You CAN keep a core together just fine, you just can’t make a lot of big contract mistakes and do so.
You CAN keep a core together just fine, you just can’t make a lot of big contract mistakes and do so.