Charlotte Swasey
@charlotteeffect.bsky.social
Data witch for good causes and bad datasets
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
In the 1990s, cable news networks discovered that viewers were less likely to click away from coverage of culture war issues than coverage of economic matters.
TV news started giving social issues greater priority - and caused voters to do the same, a new study suggests www.vox.com/politics/475...
TV news started giving social issues greater priority - and caused voters to do the same, a new study suggests www.vox.com/politics/475...
January 20, 2026 at 6:01 PM
In the 1990s, cable news networks discovered that viewers were less likely to click away from coverage of culture war issues than coverage of economic matters.
TV news started giving social issues greater priority - and caused voters to do the same, a new study suggests www.vox.com/politics/475...
TV news started giving social issues greater priority - and caused voters to do the same, a new study suggests www.vox.com/politics/475...
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
extremely cool info environment to tweet something and a half hour later once it’s riled everyone up to be like “no haha jk it’s the opposite actually”
January 16, 2026 at 8:27 PM
extremely cool info environment to tweet something and a half hour later once it’s riled everyone up to be like “no haha jk it’s the opposite actually”
All of these fucking careless guys and the people responsible for their deployment should be fired
His 6 month old stopped breathing!
HIS SIX MONTH OLD STOPPED BREATHING!
A father was getting his kids out of the neighborhood because it was unsafe & ICE threw flash bangs & tear gas at his car with children & a baby inside!
His 6 month old stopped breathing & all the children were hospitalized!
HIS SIX MONTH OLD STOPPED BREATHING!
A father was getting his kids out of the neighborhood because it was unsafe & ICE threw flash bangs & tear gas at his car with children & a baby inside!
His 6 month old stopped breathing & all the children were hospitalized!
January 15, 2026 at 7:50 PM
All of these fucking careless guys and the people responsible for their deployment should be fired
Ritchie adding "getting phished by a bad QR code" to the list of risks of interacting with ICE
I don’t even necessarily think this is a bad idea but it is hitting Levels of Ritchie Torresing that we previously couldn’t have conceived of.
I am introducing the Quick Recognition (QR) Act, which requires ICE and CBP officers to wear uniforms featuring QR codes. When scanned, the code would generate a digital ID displaying the officer’s name, badge number, and law enforcement agency.
ICE should be unmasked both physically and digitally.
ICE should be unmasked both physically and digitally.
January 15, 2026 at 1:20 AM
Ritchie adding "getting phished by a bad QR code" to the list of risks of interacting with ICE
Imo the important part here is "say what you mean". If you mean "abolish" as "shunt immigration enforcement to another agency", say that. If you mean "stop enforcing immigration law", say that (although you'll be way out of step with voters)
SCOOP: A new memo circulating on Capitol Hill urges Democratic lawmakers to instead embrace reforming the agency. New from @lauren-egan.bsky.social: lnk.thebulwark.com/4bzT7kh
Dems Are Begging Their Own to Drop ‘Abolish ICE’
A new memo circulating on Capitol Hill urges Democratic lawmakers to instead embrace reforming the agency.
lnk.thebulwark.com
January 14, 2026 at 8:12 PM
Imo the important part here is "say what you mean". If you mean "abolish" as "shunt immigration enforcement to another agency", say that. If you mean "stop enforcing immigration law", say that (although you'll be way out of step with voters)
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
It's impossible to comply with these goons, they tell her to go, she starts to go....and then the guy runs up and smashes the window and they all surround her and drag her out. Criminals doing carjackings are more organized than this
Today at 34 & Park in Minneapolis, a woman tried to drive down the street where a protest had broken out in front of a home ICE was raiding, saying she had a doctor apt to get to. ICE agents busted out her windows, cut off her seatbelt, and pulled her out before arresting her.
January 13, 2026 at 7:31 PM
It's impossible to comply with these goons, they tell her to go, she starts to go....and then the guy runs up and smashes the window and they all surround her and drag her out. Criminals doing carjackings are more organized than this
Why is so much of modern American politics about people allegedly drawing/writing/failing to write things on coffee cups.
January 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM
Why is so much of modern American politics about people allegedly drawing/writing/failing to write things on coffee cups.
I would really love to see the distribution of responses here, since I think the median numbers are obscuring a lot. Generally when I look at data like this it's all peaks at various round numbers.
This got lost in a comment, so going to put it back up here, because I think its super interesting. There was this Axios article that got some discourse play last year based on a survey where people were asked how much you have to earn to be financially successful. Gen Z says they need 587k
January 11, 2026 at 7:14 PM
I would really love to see the distribution of responses here, since I think the median numbers are obscuring a lot. Generally when I look at data like this it's all peaks at various round numbers.
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
A WSJ visual investigation found that the Minneapolis ICE killing is one of 13 times federal immigration agents have used deadly force against civilians in vehicles since July.
Videos Show How ICE Vehicle Stops Can Escalate to Shootings
A WSJ visual investigation found that the Minneapolis ICE killing is one of 13 incidents where federal immigration agents have used deadly force against civilians in vehicles since July.
on.wsj.com
January 11, 2026 at 4:19 PM
A WSJ visual investigation found that the Minneapolis ICE killing is one of 13 times federal immigration agents have used deadly force against civilians in vehicles since July.
I kind of thought we were past this sort of thing but Bowen Yang posted an apology about his (correct!!) comments on Jasmine Crockett. He was right and should say it, etc
January 10, 2026 at 11:58 PM
I kind of thought we were past this sort of thing but Bowen Yang posted an apology about his (correct!!) comments on Jasmine Crockett. He was right and should say it, etc
Damn Canadian pollsters are cooler than us
One of the lesser known facts about Canada is that most Friday and Saturday nights the country’s leading pollster gets drunk and posts new findings. He will also yell at people and share chumbawamba songs.
January 10, 2026 at 1:11 PM
Damn Canadian pollsters are cooler than us
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
Here’s a comment for the people who are upset that MN hasn’t charged Jonathan Ross already:
If you just Leeeroy Jenkins this shit you will lose and you will empower fascism and murder.
It is indescribably hard to prosecute cops for murder. It is even hard when the murder is ON VIDEO.
/1
If you just Leeeroy Jenkins this shit you will lose and you will empower fascism and murder.
It is indescribably hard to prosecute cops for murder. It is even hard when the murder is ON VIDEO.
/1
January 9, 2026 at 6:42 PM
Here’s a comment for the people who are upset that MN hasn’t charged Jonathan Ross already:
If you just Leeeroy Jenkins this shit you will lose and you will empower fascism and murder.
It is indescribably hard to prosecute cops for murder. It is even hard when the murder is ON VIDEO.
/1
If you just Leeeroy Jenkins this shit you will lose and you will empower fascism and murder.
It is indescribably hard to prosecute cops for murder. It is even hard when the murder is ON VIDEO.
/1
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
FREY: “.. the administration is sending a message to the entire country: If you show up for your immigrant neighbors, or even are simply present when those neighbors are taken, your rights will not be protected by the law and your life will be at risk.”
@nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/o...
@nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/o...
January 9, 2026 at 12:33 AM
FREY: “.. the administration is sending a message to the entire country: If you show up for your immigrant neighbors, or even are simply present when those neighbors are taken, your rights will not be protected by the law and your life will be at risk.”
@nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/o...
@nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/o...
absolutely horrific
the front passenger's seat and glove compartment are filled with a little kid's stuffed animals. i am shaking with anger
ICE officer fatally shoots driver through car window in Minneapolis
minnesotareformer.com/2026/01/07/i...
minnesotareformer.com/2026/01/07/i...
January 7, 2026 at 7:42 PM
absolutely horrific
the flip side of this is if you try to do "soft popularism" and talk about what the public wants/thinks and how to work around where it diverges from your beliefs, people immediately accuse you of secretly wanting whatever you think the public wants
popularism usually translating to "whatever i *think* the public wants, which very conveniently lines up with all my preexisting beliefs about the world"
January 7, 2026 at 5:31 PM
the flip side of this is if you try to do "soft popularism" and talk about what the public wants/thinks and how to work around where it diverges from your beliefs, people immediately accuse you of secretly wanting whatever you think the public wants
it is very, very important to believe true things, even if false things are better evidence for what you want to be true
why I've become against 'directionally correct' lies. you can't control where this shit goes. here the misapprehension that defense is half the budget is being used (not by OP) to partially *justify* invasion and imperialism. I know it kinda sucks to be the 'actually' guy, but the truth does matter
I had an old post on Twitter about this. The US spends about 18% of its GDP on the social safety net and 3.5% on military. Germany spends about 24-25% of its GDP on the social safety net and 2% on the military.
Our military spending is not why they can have nice things or why we don't.
Our military spending is not why they can have nice things or why we don't.
January 6, 2026 at 7:47 PM
it is very, very important to believe true things, even if false things are better evidence for what you want to be true
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
Feels like a narrative violation but nationally however you slice it, asking rents nationally have grown less than wages and less than non-shelter parts of CPI since the pandemic, basically averaging 2.5% per year
January 6, 2026 at 4:04 PM
Feels like a narrative violation but nationally however you slice it, asking rents nationally have grown less than wages and less than non-shelter parts of CPI since the pandemic, basically averaging 2.5% per year
They've got tinfoil hats for your junk now, oh my god
January 6, 2026 at 4:02 PM
They've got tinfoil hats for your junk now, oh my god
Omg new Isabel Kim story this is a great day
you should read @isabel.kim's WIRE MOTHER
and also probably follow them
clarkesworldmagazine.com/kim_10_25/
and also probably follow them
clarkesworldmagazine.com/kim_10_25/
Wire Mother by Isabel J. Kim
Clarkesworld Science Fiction and Fantasy Magazine and Podcast.
clarkesworldmagazine.com
January 6, 2026 at 3:57 AM
Omg new Isabel Kim story this is a great day
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
There are barely enough Bsky users for a crosstab but from what data we have we gotta keep in mind what a weird place it is ideologically. If understanding politics matters to you, please remember you are currently on a platform with ~zero people who hold America's most popular political label.
January 5, 2026 at 10:49 PM
There are barely enough Bsky users for a crosstab but from what data we have we gotta keep in mind what a weird place it is ideologically. If understanding politics matters to you, please remember you are currently on a platform with ~zero people who hold America's most popular political label.
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
So I strongly disagree with the notion floating around here that Democrats retaking Congress (or even just the House) would have little effect on the war that Trump just started unlawfully. That is pretty much the only meaningful move on the table and war opponents should pursue it relentlessly.
January 3, 2026 at 4:50 PM
So I strongly disagree with the notion floating around here that Democrats retaking Congress (or even just the House) would have little effect on the war that Trump just started unlawfully. That is pretty much the only meaningful move on the table and war opponents should pursue it relentlessly.
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
Just as a practical matter, how is the United States going to “run Venezuela” after the overnight abduction raid. Do US forces currently control an airport? A television station? A major road?
January 3, 2026 at 5:02 PM
Just as a practical matter, how is the United States going to “run Venezuela” after the overnight abduction raid. Do US forces currently control an airport? A television station? A major road?
I cannot *believe* we are arguing about WAR scores again. I am so tired. This does not matter to the underlying point, and I'm more interested in arguing about Casten's substantive point, with which I also disagree
December 20, 2025 at 11:01 PM
I cannot *believe* we are arguing about WAR scores again. I am so tired. This does not matter to the underlying point, and I'm more interested in arguing about Casten's substantive point, with which I also disagree
What's an incumbency effect, we've never heard of that, that definitely couldn't impact the difference between raw overperformance and WAR scores.
Casten won with 54% in a district Harris won 51% in 2024. The problem is with the Split Ticket WAR scores, not Casten.
December 20, 2025 at 10:58 PM
What's an incumbency effect, we've never heard of that, that definitely couldn't impact the difference between raw overperformance and WAR scores.
Texas is very obviously a red state, that isn't an insult, and I hate the way candidates talk in primaries- today on the blog
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
On Primaryslop
Is Texas a red state?
open.substack.com
December 19, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Texas is very obviously a red state, that isn't an insult, and I hate the way candidates talk in primaries- today on the blog
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...