Charlotte Swasey
@charlotteeffect.bsky.social
Data witch for good causes and bad datasets
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
virgin bsky poster: all that really matters is vibes and fighting for something, poll-testing is the death of campaigns
chad zohran mamdani: let's spend lots of money fine-tuning the exact language we use to talk about affordability and bring up affordability in response to every question
chad zohran mamdani: let's spend lots of money fine-tuning the exact language we use to talk about affordability and bring up affordability in response to every question
November 5, 2025 at 7:02 PM
virgin bsky poster: all that really matters is vibes and fighting for something, poll-testing is the death of campaigns
chad zohran mamdani: let's spend lots of money fine-tuning the exact language we use to talk about affordability and bring up affordability in response to every question
chad zohran mamdani: let's spend lots of money fine-tuning the exact language we use to talk about affordability and bring up affordability in response to every question
Quick, someone do a sentiment analysis on Matt Stoller's tweets about Mamdani before and after this announcement
November 5, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Quick, someone do a sentiment analysis on Matt Stoller's tweets about Mamdani before and after this announcement
"oh my gosh, what explains this shift" probably that it was an off year and also that the "shift" is at least half an exit poll mirage
November 5, 2025 at 6:47 PM
"oh my gosh, what explains this shift" probably that it was an off year and also that the "shift" is at least half an exit poll mirage
I'm really pleased with this poll and media analysis, full results on our website. (there's a lot more in the toplines that I just didn't get to- maybe more on this soon?)
www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
How Zohran Mamdani Won
By avoiding ‘crowding out,’ Mamdani drove a focus on the cost of living.
www.searchlightinstitute.org
November 5, 2025 at 5:20 PM
I'm really pleased with this poll and media analysis, full results on our website. (there's a lot more in the toplines that I just didn't get to- maybe more on this soon?)
www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
Now he's got to get things done. Voters support some of his policies, like free childcare and a rent freeze, but they're not entirely convinced they'll actually happen.
November 5, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Now he's got to get things done. Voters support some of his policies, like free childcare and a rent freeze, but they're not entirely convinced they'll actually happen.
And it worked! Voters understood that he was focused on their wallets, and saw him as more in line with their top priorities than national democrats. He dodged the "crowding out" problem that dilutes Democratic focus on pocketbook issues.
November 5, 2025 at 5:20 PM
And it worked! Voters understood that he was focused on their wallets, and saw him as more in line with their top priorities than national democrats. He dodged the "crowding out" problem that dilutes Democratic focus on pocketbook issues.
In his content, Mamdani stayed very on message- focusing on his core issues of affordability, housing, and transit. He barely mentioned issues like climate change and avoided getting dragged into topics he wasn't running on.
November 5, 2025 at 5:20 PM
In his content, Mamdani stayed very on message- focusing on his core issues of affordability, housing, and transit. He barely mentioned issues like climate change and avoided getting dragged into topics he wasn't running on.
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
See our AAPOR report on 2024 poll accuracy that was released last week!
It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report.
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
aapor.org
November 4, 2025 at 2:51 PM
See our AAPOR report on 2024 poll accuracy that was released last week!
You can also place requests for type of book or genre, I make absolutely no guarantees that it will be good
October 31, 2025 at 12:10 AM
You can also place requests for type of book or genre, I make absolutely no guarantees that it will be good
October 31, 2025 at 12:10 AM
Do not even get me started on Neal Stephenson. There's something interesting to be written there but even contemplating it made me have to go lay down
October 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM
Do not even get me started on Neal Stephenson. There's something interesting to be written there but even contemplating it made me have to go lay down
He's around the right age, but I couldn't actually find any evidence of it. I think it's likely enough that someone involved in starting up the venture did, though
October 30, 2025 at 10:55 PM
He's around the right age, but I couldn't actually find any evidence of it. I think it's likely enough that someone involved in starting up the venture did, though