Charlotte Swasey
@charlotteeffect.bsky.social
Data witch for good causes and bad datasets
Super interesting thread! This accounting of what's likely to happen doesn't quiiiite match up with voter perceptions of what's likely to happen. Which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.
November 5, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Super interesting thread! This accounting of what's likely to happen doesn't quiiiite match up with voter perceptions of what's likely to happen. Which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.
Now he's got to get things done. Voters support some of his policies, like free childcare and a rent freeze, but they're not entirely convinced they'll actually happen.
November 5, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Now he's got to get things done. Voters support some of his policies, like free childcare and a rent freeze, but they're not entirely convinced they'll actually happen.
And it worked! Voters understood that he was focused on their wallets, and saw him as more in line with their top priorities than national democrats. He dodged the "crowding out" problem that dilutes Democratic focus on pocketbook issues.
November 5, 2025 at 5:20 PM
And it worked! Voters understood that he was focused on their wallets, and saw him as more in line with their top priorities than national democrats. He dodged the "crowding out" problem that dilutes Democratic focus on pocketbook issues.
In his content, Mamdani stayed very on message- focusing on his core issues of affordability, housing, and transit. He barely mentioned issues like climate change and avoided getting dragged into topics he wasn't running on.
November 5, 2025 at 5:20 PM
In his content, Mamdani stayed very on message- focusing on his core issues of affordability, housing, and transit. He barely mentioned issues like climate change and avoided getting dragged into topics he wasn't running on.
October 27, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Huge day for the WAR/overperformance nerds. This piece gets into the weeds.
October 20, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Huge day for the WAR/overperformance nerds. This piece gets into the weeds.
If money in politics skews government , shouldn't we see evidence in my favorite no campaign finance limits state, Virginia? And do we? I tried using VA as a test case, and looked for potential impacts of unlimited spending on taxes, social spending, labor laws, and more.
October 17, 2025 at 3:51 PM
If money in politics skews government , shouldn't we see evidence in my favorite no campaign finance limits state, Virginia? And do we? I tried using VA as a test case, and looked for potential impacts of unlimited spending on taxes, social spending, labor laws, and more.
Also made some new viz that I'm pleased with
October 16, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Also made some new viz that I'm pleased with
There's skepticism that *either* party wants you to have the markers of a good life, but it's worse for Democrats (even among Democratic voters)
October 9, 2025 at 2:41 PM
There's skepticism that *either* party wants you to have the markers of a good life, but it's worse for Democrats (even among Democratic voters)
People don't believe that Democrats want them to have a good life
October 9, 2025 at 2:41 PM
People don't believe that Democrats want them to have a good life
Today: arguing that Sherrill might lose in NJ, and also why you probably shouldn't put too much faith in that guess (or any guess). Come stare at graphs, on the blog
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
October 3, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Today: arguing that Sherrill might lose in NJ, and also why you probably shouldn't put too much faith in that guess (or any guess). Come stare at graphs, on the blog
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
3. Clean energy/new energy sources/cheap energy is more appealing to voters and less polarizing than "climate change"
September 22, 2025 at 3:52 PM
3. Clean energy/new energy sources/cheap energy is more appealing to voters and less polarizing than "climate change"
1. Searchlight has a new poll out this morning, on battleground voters and climate change. The topline finding is that voters just really do not prioritize fixing climate change, especially compared to other issues 🧵
September 22, 2025 at 3:52 PM
1. Searchlight has a new poll out this morning, on battleground voters and climate change. The topline finding is that voters just really do not prioritize fixing climate change, especially compared to other issues 🧵
3. On my personal blog (which yes, I am still trying to keep up with), some real earnest-posting about survey research and understanding the public
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
September 19, 2025 at 2:54 PM
3. On my personal blog (which yes, I am still trying to keep up with), some real earnest-posting about survey research and understanding the public
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
2. On the Searchlight blog, a short note about our first poll and what I'm doing to try and ensure we are writing fair and unbiased surveys
open.substack.com/pub/searchli...
open.substack.com/pub/searchli...
September 19, 2025 at 2:54 PM
2. On the Searchlight blog, a short note about our first poll and what I'm doing to try and ensure we are writing fair and unbiased surveys
open.substack.com/pub/searchli...
open.substack.com/pub/searchli...
The sign, the sign, tapping the sign
September 17, 2025 at 4:56 PM
The sign, the sign, tapping the sign
Tapping the sign yet again. We want you to understand where you stand with the public so you can make your own moral and strategic decisions.
September 17, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Tapping the sign yet again. We want you to understand where you stand with the public so you can make your own moral and strategic decisions.
He wrote this in our mission statement so yup
September 17, 2025 at 3:01 PM
He wrote this in our mission statement so yup
One of my core beliefs is that you should try understand truths about the world, and it's a joy and a privilege to be running analytics with that explicit commitment at @searchlightinst.bsky.social (also, new job alert)
September 17, 2025 at 1:39 PM
One of my core beliefs is that you should try understand truths about the world, and it's a joy and a privilege to be running analytics with that explicit commitment at @searchlightinst.bsky.social (also, new job alert)
Especially this Adam Bonica thing where he's (again) going beyond what his evidence supports. So irritating.
August 29, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Especially this Adam Bonica thing where he's (again) going beyond what his evidence supports. So irritating.
Today's post is about how I try to separate bad from annoying, and some things that fall in the mushy middle
August 29, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Today's post is about how I try to separate bad from annoying, and some things that fall in the mushy middle
Some groups are straight up scamming, but many more are engaging in shady practices in an attempt to keep up with a funding mechanism that rewards national brands and splashy content
August 15, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Some groups are straight up scamming, but many more are engaging in shady practices in an attempt to keep up with a funding mechanism that rewards national brands and splashy content
It just isn't true that non WAR methods show no moderation effects- they do
August 14, 2025 at 11:01 PM
It just isn't true that non WAR methods show no moderation effects- they do
I've got a spend more time on the rest of this once I've had coffee, but this section from the end is exactly my theory of politics. Well chosen district fitting heterodox views that diverge from the party as a whole!
August 13, 2025 at 1:14 PM
I've got a spend more time on the rest of this once I've had coffee, but this section from the end is exactly my theory of politics. Well chosen district fitting heterodox views that diverge from the party as a whole!
I really hate it when people blame "polling" for the behavior of people they find annoying online
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
August 7, 2025 at 2:14 PM
I really hate it when people blame "polling" for the behavior of people they find annoying online
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...