John Voorheis
@johnvoorheis.bsky.social
Principal Economist, US Census Bureau
I study people, places, businesses and the environment
Opinions are not my employer's, my coauthors nor mine (in expectation)
I study people, places, businesses and the environment
Opinions are not my employer's, my coauthors nor mine (in expectation)
Any issues with groupthink in academia are because we select too much on rule following nerds who never made a mistake and got high SAT scores and don't have enough fuck ups and dirtbags, not because we don't pay enough attention to standardized tests.
This article advocates for the “Faculty Merit Act” that would — get this — require all faculty applicants to submit their *SAT* scores. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 Holy shirts that’s hilarious.
January 2, 2026 at 6:47 PM
Any issues with groupthink in academia are because we select too much on rule following nerds who never made a mistake and got high SAT scores and don't have enough fuck ups and dirtbags, not because we don't pay enough attention to standardized tests.
It brings me no pleasure to see an Ohio state university lose to the only worse state in the union (Florida)
January 1, 2026 at 3:47 AM
It brings me no pleasure to see an Ohio state university lose to the only worse state in the union (Florida)
Journalists, like doctors and lawyers, are members of a skilled trade who are in denial about this fact. Their work is vital, but also in many ways repetitive boring and unfulfilling. That's the gig!
Real "oh my god, she admit it" moment here. Trump is treated as an uninteresting figure without agency so we can dump endless criticism on liberals for how they react to his "natural disaster." He "doesn't participate in moral frameworks" lmfao
December 30, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Journalists, like doctors and lawyers, are members of a skilled trade who are in denial about this fact. Their work is vital, but also in many ways repetitive boring and unfulfilling. That's the gig!
If you think of "hiring in entry level positions" as "procuring labor to do the tasks entry level people do" then you probably do think AI is a magical headcount reduction machine.
But the point of hiring in entry level positions is to produce mid-career employees.
But the point of hiring in entry level positions is to produce mid-career employees.
December 29, 2025 at 5:47 PM
If you think of "hiring in entry level positions" as "procuring labor to do the tasks entry level people do" then you probably do think AI is a magical headcount reduction machine.
But the point of hiring in entry level positions is to produce mid-career employees.
But the point of hiring in entry level positions is to produce mid-career employees.
Type of guy who talks about heritage Americans unitonically but also thinks the check boxes for SPD-15 race and ethnicity are too complicated for white people
December 27, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Type of guy who talks about heritage Americans unitonically but also thinks the check boxes for SPD-15 race and ethnicity are too complicated for white people
Trying to convince my niece and nephew the monster cookies I made are healthy because the oats + peanut butter make a complete protein
December 24, 2025 at 11:28 PM
Trying to convince my niece and nephew the monster cookies I made are healthy because the oats + peanut butter make a complete protein
A whole season of the Pitt, but each hour the ER staff needs to treat a new set of victims of Kevin McAllister's booby traps
December 22, 2025 at 12:37 AM
A whole season of the Pitt, but each hour the ER staff needs to treat a new set of victims of Kevin McAllister's booby traps
Die Hard 2 rules supreme among all the Die Hard movies because what do you mean the forests of Northern Michigan and Colorado are inexplicably in walking distance from Dulles?
December 21, 2025 at 1:29 AM
Die Hard 2 rules supreme among all the Die Hard movies because what do you mean the forests of Northern Michigan and Colorado are inexplicably in walking distance from Dulles?
Reposted by John Voorheis
New CES Working Paper: "Gifted Identification Across the Distribution of Family Income" by Ainsworth, Ainsworth, Cleveland, Clark, Brummet, Penner, Hibel, Saultz, Spiegel, Hanselman, and Penner
www.census.gov/library/work...
www.census.gov/library/work...
Gifted Identification Across the Distribution of Family Income
Students from families in the top income percentile are more than 5 times as likely to be identified for gifted programs as students from the bottom percentile.
www.census.gov
December 20, 2025 at 3:50 PM
New CES Working Paper: "Gifted Identification Across the Distribution of Family Income" by Ainsworth, Ainsworth, Cleveland, Clark, Brummet, Penner, Hibel, Saultz, Spiegel, Hanselman, and Penner
www.census.gov/library/work...
www.census.gov/library/work...
The counterpoint to this take (which is true when considering incomes and labor market outcomes and becomes less true when you expand from there) is this graph, but of course I would say that:
December 20, 2025 at 2:26 PM
The counterpoint to this take (which is true when considering incomes and labor market outcomes and becomes less true when you expand from there) is this graph, but of course I would say that:
war is bad, you shouldn't do war, the quakers and anabaptists were right about this
December 17, 2025 at 1:44 AM
war is bad, you shouldn't do war, the quakers and anabaptists were right about this
Reposted by John Voorheis
New CES Working Paper: "Parental Death, Inheritance, and Labor Supply in the United States" by Elif Tasar and John Voorheis www.census.gov/library/work...
Parental Death, Inheritance, and Labor Supply in the United States
Using linked administrative records, this paper finds that parental death decreases labor supply via an inheritance channel.
www.census.gov
December 16, 2025 at 2:47 PM
New CES Working Paper: "Parental Death, Inheritance, and Labor Supply in the United States" by Elif Tasar and John Voorheis www.census.gov/library/work...
In retrospect not actually doing the cancel culture that exists in a kind of guy's head was a mistake, intense social stigma is an important, load bearing bit of social infrastructure
December 13, 2025 at 6:44 PM
In retrospect not actually doing the cancel culture that exists in a kind of guy's head was a mistake, intense social stigma is an important, load bearing bit of social infrastructure
Note that the take relies on plentiful and stable employment opportunities in the federal government, which, uhhhhhh
If you want to do something like this, why not buy a $150k home in a small town in Italy, France, Spain, or Mexico, instead of having nine people share one bathroom after they eat at a restaurant called "Stinky's?"
December 13, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Note that the take relies on plentiful and stable employment opportunities in the federal government, which, uhhhhhh
In the presence of unequal baseline distribution of resources, any roughly equally distributed shock has larger relative impacts on low income people -- this is just Kolm (1970) -- which means that a large array of shocks are "regressive" in a relative sense.
December 12, 2025 at 5:56 PM
In the presence of unequal baseline distribution of resources, any roughly equally distributed shock has larger relative impacts on low income people -- this is just Kolm (1970) -- which means that a large array of shocks are "regressive" in a relative sense.
I would say this of course but: RAs/predocs who have experience working in physical FSRDCs will have outsized success, not necessarily because of data access, but because it's one of the few environments that forces you to code from scratch without AI tools
Some closing thoughts for my students this semester on LLMs and learning #rstats datavizf25.classes.andrewheiss.com/news/2025-12...
December 10, 2025 at 12:52 AM
I would say this of course but: RAs/predocs who have experience working in physical FSRDCs will have outsized success, not necessarily because of data access, but because it's one of the few environments that forces you to code from scratch without AI tools
Reposted by John Voorheis
I'm super skeptical of the result/magnitude here:
• gradual change doesn't match traffic responses, which were sharp
• confidence intervals are tiny (PM has high variance!)
• This is not a standard DiD
• Cook et al. use synthetic control + more monitors and find no change
[1/3]
• gradual change doesn't match traffic responses, which were sharp
• confidence intervals are tiny (PM has high variance!)
• This is not a standard DiD
• Cook et al. use synthetic control + more monitors and find no change
[1/3]
December 9, 2025 at 11:31 PM
I'm super skeptical of the result/magnitude here:
• gradual change doesn't match traffic responses, which were sharp
• confidence intervals are tiny (PM has high variance!)
• This is not a standard DiD
• Cook et al. use synthetic control + more monitors and find no change
[1/3]
• gradual change doesn't match traffic responses, which were sharp
• confidence intervals are tiny (PM has high variance!)
• This is not a standard DiD
• Cook et al. use synthetic control + more monitors and find no change
[1/3]
There's updated data on PM2.5 exposure through 2024 from the famous van Donkelaar (2021) series, so we can check on trends in exposure; and it turns out we still haven't made any progress on air pollution since 2016 (trends are still moving in the wrong direction)
December 7, 2025 at 12:36 AM
There's updated data on PM2.5 exposure through 2024 from the famous van Donkelaar (2021) series, so we can check on trends in exposure; and it turns out we still haven't made any progress on air pollution since 2016 (trends are still moving in the wrong direction)
A fun fact is that the guillotine was originally invented as a, you might say, "woke" reaction to gruesome execution methods by the masculine leadership of the Valois and Bourbon kings of France
A Palantir billionaire just called for public hangings.
“It's time to bring back masculine leadership to protect our most vulnerable,” writes Joe Lonsdale.
This is where Silicon Valley authoritarianism is heading:
www.thenerdreich.com/joe-lonsdale...
“It's time to bring back masculine leadership to protect our most vulnerable,” writes Joe Lonsdale.
This is where Silicon Valley authoritarianism is heading:
www.thenerdreich.com/joe-lonsdale...
Joe Lonsdale Calls For Public Hangings
Silicon Valley radicalization escalates
www.thenerdreich.com
December 6, 2025 at 10:40 PM
A fun fact is that the guillotine was originally invented as a, you might say, "woke" reaction to gruesome execution methods by the masculine leadership of the Valois and Bourbon kings of France
Letting the economy get swallowed by scams is bad and people who let that happen need to suffer consequences
Fuckin people watching Netflix making prop bets on what minute of the episode we’re first gonna see Vecna. People betting on whether it’s gonna be a Toyotathon commercial or an Activia commercial. Just a little QR code in the bottom corner of every show asking you to bet on everything.
December 5, 2025 at 2:06 AM
Letting the economy get swallowed by scams is bad and people who let that happen need to suffer consequences
scams all the way down
After becoming a congressional leader, a politician’s stock portfolio beats out those of peers by 47 (!!!) percentage points a year through trades timed around bills and firms that later get government contracts
www.nber.org/papers/w34524
via @florianederer.bsky.social
www.nber.org/papers/w34524
via @florianederer.bsky.social
December 3, 2025 at 2:00 AM
scams all the way down
Unpopular opinion, but we should be meaner about scam-adjacent stuff across the board -- crypto, gambling, car dealerships, legacy admissions and high SES parents weaponizing disability accomodations are all bad and shameful
December 2, 2025 at 7:21 PM
Unpopular opinion, but we should be meaner about scam-adjacent stuff across the board -- crypto, gambling, car dealerships, legacy admissions and high SES parents weaponizing disability accomodations are all bad and shameful
The whole fitness ecosystem is in many ways a good analogy for how AI fits in the current economy. You have guys who desperately want gains (CEOs who want higher profits) who maybe should know that they need diet, exercise and discipline (actually doing something useful people want to buy)
November 28, 2025 at 10:34 PM
The whole fitness ecosystem is in many ways a good analogy for how AI fits in the current economy. You have guys who desperately want gains (CEOs who want higher profits) who maybe should know that they need diet, exercise and discipline (actually doing something useful people want to buy)
Reposted by John Voorheis
A recent essay claims the poverty line for a family of four should be $140,000. I disagree:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/11/26/t...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/11/26/t...
The Poverty Line is Not $140,000
A recent essay by Michael W. Green makes a very bold claim that the poverty line should not be where it is currently set — about $31,200 for a family of four — but should be much higher…
economistwritingeveryday.com
November 26, 2025 at 5:19 PM
A recent essay claims the poverty line for a family of four should be $140,000. I disagree:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/11/26/t...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/11/26/t...
alright, I'm making pies, you guys figure out the poverty measurement discourse mess you've made without me
November 26, 2025 at 2:02 PM
alright, I'm making pies, you guys figure out the poverty measurement discourse mess you've made without me