John Voorheis
@johnvoorheis.bsky.social
Principal Economist, US Census Bureau
I study people, places, businesses and the environment
Opinions are not my employer's, my coauthors nor mine (in expectation)
I study people, places, businesses and the environment
Opinions are not my employer's, my coauthors nor mine (in expectation)
Like this just doesn't make me super confident, you know? Maybe that's ambient anxiety, but its not good for data quality, even if the weights still work.
November 3, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Like this just doesn't make me super confident, you know? Maybe that's ambient anxiety, but its not good for data quality, even if the weights still work.
A lot of current discourse is basically looking at this graph and concluding that the solid red line is correct and also way too low.
October 31, 2025 at 3:29 PM
A lot of current discourse is basically looking at this graph and concluding that the solid red line is correct and also way too low.
Here's a new one I haven't done before: income ranks by tenure for adults 25-34. Homeowners are about 3-4 rank points richer in 2025 vs. 1976. Renters are more like 8 rank points poorer. This gap opened up in the 1980s-1990s, and has been relatively stable after 2000.
October 16, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Here's a new one I haven't done before: income ranks by tenure for adults 25-34. Homeowners are about 3-4 rank points richer in 2025 vs. 1976. Renters are more like 8 rank points poorer. This gap opened up in the 1980s-1990s, and has been relatively stable after 2000.
Homeownership rates for 45-64 continue recent trends, however, as do 65+ homeownership rates.
October 16, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Homeownership rates for 45-64 continue recent trends, however, as do 65+ homeownership rates.
Similar trends for the 35-44 age group
October 16, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Similar trends for the 35-44 age group
Updated with 2025 CPS-ASEC public use data: young adult homeownership has now given up most of its post-2016 improvements, and the person-level definition is now below 30%
October 16, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Updated with 2025 CPS-ASEC public use data: young adult homeownership has now given up most of its post-2016 improvements, and the person-level definition is now below 30%
So a deer jumped over my fence into my yard, and then just like... Aimlessly shuffled about for a while, wouldn't go out the gate I opened for it and then jumped over my fence into my neighbor's yard. Suburban entertainment, I guess?
October 10, 2025 at 9:10 PM
So a deer jumped over my fence into my yard, and then just like... Aimlessly shuffled about for a while, wouldn't go out the gate I opened for it and then jumped over my fence into my neighbor's yard. Suburban entertainment, I guess?
We ain't got no place to go, etc
October 3, 2025 at 12:47 AM
We ain't got no place to go, etc
The last thing we do is to provide some (suggestive but I think compelling) evidence on determinants: we show that local housing supply elasticity has a substantial impact on intergenerational housing persistence, with the largest effects coming from the most inelastic places (like SF, LA, etc)
August 26, 2025 at 8:46 PM
The last thing we do is to provide some (suggestive but I think compelling) evidence on determinants: we show that local housing supply elasticity has a substantial impact on intergenerational housing persistence, with the largest effects coming from the most inelastic places (like SF, LA, etc)
There are also big geographic differences in intergenerational housing wealth mobility that differ in important ways from the well known opportunity maps from Chetty et al (2014 and 2020)
August 26, 2025 at 8:46 PM
There are also big geographic differences in intergenerational housing wealth mobility that differ in important ways from the well known opportunity maps from Chetty et al (2014 and 2020)
There are also big racial differences in housing wealth transmission: housing is less persistent for Black vs. White families, and Black children hold less housing wealth than White children conditional on parents with the same housing wealth rank.
August 26, 2025 at 8:46 PM
There are also big racial differences in housing wealth transmission: housing is less persistent for Black vs. White families, and Black children hold less housing wealth than White children conditional on parents with the same housing wealth rank.
First, Housing wealth is more intergenerationally persistent than income -- we find a rank-rank slope of 0.427 for housing, compared to 0.347 for income.
August 26, 2025 at 8:46 PM
First, Housing wealth is more intergenerationally persistent than income -- we find a rank-rank slope of 0.427 for housing, compared to 0.347 for income.
Do we still do sirens for new working papers?
If so then 🚨Working Paper Alert🚨-- "Housing Capital and Intergenerational Mobility in the United States", joint with Ari Binder and Max Risch
Read it here: www.census.gov/library/work...
If so then 🚨Working Paper Alert🚨-- "Housing Capital and Intergenerational Mobility in the United States", joint with Ari Binder and Max Risch
Read it here: www.census.gov/library/work...
August 26, 2025 at 8:46 PM
Do we still do sirens for new working papers?
If so then 🚨Working Paper Alert🚨-- "Housing Capital and Intergenerational Mobility in the United States", joint with Ari Binder and Max Risch
Read it here: www.census.gov/library/work...
If so then 🚨Working Paper Alert🚨-- "Housing Capital and Intergenerational Mobility in the United States", joint with Ari Binder and Max Risch
Read it here: www.census.gov/library/work...
The GFS model is absolutely sure that the current tropical wave developing behind Erin is going to be a thing -- predicting a Hurricane Sandy situation in the 18z run
(This far out the global models are dogshit is my understanding, this is mostly just a curiosity)
(This far out the global models are dogshit is my understanding, this is mostly just a curiosity)
August 19, 2025 at 12:32 AM
The GFS model is absolutely sure that the current tropical wave developing behind Erin is going to be a thing -- predicting a Hurricane Sandy situation in the 18z run
(This far out the global models are dogshit is my understanding, this is mostly just a curiosity)
(This far out the global models are dogshit is my understanding, this is mostly just a curiosity)
The (probably wrong this far out) current GFS run has this wave forming into a hurricane, hitting PR/USVI, making landfall in southern FL, then side swiping the rest of the Atlantic coast before making another landfall in NC and heading north through the research triangle and towards the DC area.
August 18, 2025 at 6:08 PM
The (probably wrong this far out) current GFS run has this wave forming into a hurricane, hitting PR/USVI, making landfall in southern FL, then side swiping the rest of the Atlantic coast before making another landfall in NC and heading north through the research triangle and towards the DC area.
In northern Michigan, taking advantage of southerly winds to send some smoke back Canada's way
August 9, 2025 at 10:35 PM
In northern Michigan, taking advantage of southerly winds to send some smoke back Canada's way
There are 34 EPA AirNow monitors which have measured an PM2.5 AQI above 100 for more than 50% of the hourly readings in the last week. The monitor in Potawatomi, WI has not had a single 24 hour period with AQI below 100.
August 5, 2025 at 1:29 AM
There are 34 EPA AirNow monitors which have measured an PM2.5 AQI above 100 for more than 50% of the hourly readings in the last week. The monitor in Potawatomi, WI has not had a single 24 hour period with AQI below 100.
Have been working on some rapid response stuff related to the last couple days of poor air quality -- here's an animated gif that shows how the smoke plume spread over the Midwest Wednesday through yesterday
August 1, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Have been working on some rapid response stuff related to the last couple days of poor air quality -- here's an animated gif that shows how the smoke plume spread over the Midwest Wednesday through yesterday
Good morning to everyone except out of control Canadian wildfires, who can eat a dick
July 31, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Good morning to everyone except out of control Canadian wildfires, who can eat a dick
A reminder that as far as we can tell, literally everyone who was born in, e.g. 1971 (really anytime in the 1970s) was lead poisoned as a child (via the great McFarland, Hauer and Reuben PNAS paper)
July 12, 2025 at 2:36 PM
A reminder that as far as we can tell, literally everyone who was born in, e.g. 1971 (really anytime in the 1970s) was lead poisoned as a child (via the great McFarland, Hauer and Reuben PNAS paper)
Canadian wildfire smoke is smoking again, looks like
July 12, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Canadian wildfire smoke is smoking again, looks like
And here's a fun gif that shows the evolution of the underlying hourly air quality over the night.
July 5, 2025 at 9:31 PM
And here's a fun gif that shows the evolution of the underlying hourly air quality over the night.
Here's what the map of maximum AQI looks like (for CONUS only)
July 5, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Here's what the map of maximum AQI looks like (for CONUS only)