Josh Busby
@busbyj2.bsky.social
Professor at the University of Texas-Austin. Former Senior Climate Advisor DOD. Climate security, climate governance, clean energy, global health, US foreign policy. Author of States and Nature: The Effects of Climate Change on Security (Cambridge, 2022).
Why would you do that?
US may subsidize an effort by oil companies to rebuild Venezuela's energy infrastructure, President Trump tells NBC News. www.nbcnews.com/politics/dona...
Trump says the U.S. is not at war with Venezuela
In an exclusive interview with NBC News, Trump discussed the path forward in Venezuela, including when there will be elections, the opportunities for oil companies and Congress' role.
www.nbcnews.com
January 5, 2026 at 11:18 PM
Why would you do that?
Reposted by Josh Busby
This is so unbelievably reckless and dangerous, I just can't with these people.
Breaking news with @lenasun.bsky.social U.S. overhauls childhood vaccine schedule, recommends fewer shots:
www.washingtonpost.com/health/2026/...
www.washingtonpost.com/health/2026/...
U.S. overhauls childhood vaccine schedule, recommends fewer shots
The new strategy would no longer broadly recommend vaccines for flu, hepatitis A and B, rotavirus and meningitis. The Trump administration says this aligns the U.S. with peer countries.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 5, 2026 at 7:11 PM
This is so unbelievably reckless and dangerous, I just can't with these people.
Reposted by Josh Busby
Worth a read, but tl;dr Kelly ain't having it
NEW: Sen. Mark Kelly RESPONDS to Pete Hegseth for censuring him, cutting his military pension, threatening to demote his rank, and warning of possible criminal prosecution for telling soldiers to obey their oath.
January 5, 2026 at 6:23 PM
Worth a read, but tl;dr Kelly ain't having it
I wrote up a little something about the flood of requests I've gotten to review articles this past year and whether this is idiosyncratic to me or a broader problem in peer review and publishing.
Is Peer Review Broken? Should Reviewers Be Paid?
My New Year's resolution for 2026 is to somehow make peace with reviewing for journals. Something is amiss, at least for me, but perhaps it reveals a larger problem related to journal and book publishing. I kept a running tally of review requests…
My New Year's resolution for 2026 is to somehow make peace with reviewing for journals. Something is amiss, at least for me, but perhaps it reveals a larger problem related to journal and book publishing. I kept a running tally of review requests…
Is Peer Review Broken? Should Reviewers Be Paid?
My New Year's resolution for 2026 is to somehow make peace with reviewing for journals. Something is amiss, at least for me, but perhaps it reveals a larger problem related to journal and book publishing. I kept a running tally of review requests for 2025. Give or take some error, I had 79 review requests, which includes some R&Rs, book proposals, and a several full books.
www.duckofminerva.com
January 5, 2026 at 5:43 PM
I wrote up a little something about the flood of requests I've gotten to review articles this past year and whether this is idiosyncratic to me or a broader problem in peer review and publishing.
Deeply stupid.
Deep budget cuts and massive firing sprees shrank emergency response agencies, including the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), considered a global crown jewel for climate science.
‘The perfect storm’: Trump has left the US less prepared for natural disasters, experts say
Emergency managers say the US president has presided over a dangerous erosion in US capacity to prepare for and respond to natural disasters
www.theguardian.com
January 5, 2026 at 5:00 AM
Deeply stupid.
Reposted by Josh Busby
What (and I can’t stress this enough)
THE FUCK.
THE FUCK.
WH sources say Venezuela's opposition leader committed the "ultimate sin": She accepted the Nobel Peace prize.
“If she had turned it down and said, ‘I can’t accept it because it’s Donald Trump’s,’ she’d be the president of Venezuela today,” one said.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
“If she had turned it down and said, ‘I can’t accept it because it’s Donald Trump’s,’ she’d be the president of Venezuela today,” one said.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
January 5, 2026 at 3:27 AM
What (and I can’t stress this enough)
THE FUCK.
THE FUCK.
Terrific overview of the situation on Venezuela from Nick Kristof who has been there more than once. Maduro was terrible but things could get worse. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/o...
Opinion | What I Learned in Venezuela
www.nytimes.com
January 4, 2026 at 10:38 PM
Terrific overview of the situation on Venezuela from Nick Kristof who has been there more than once. Maduro was terrible but things could get worse. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/o...
Reposted by Josh Busby
Operation Absolute Resolve, that resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro, echoes the 1990 U.S. invasion of Panama that brought down Manuel Noriega. But big differences abound.
A tale of two U.S. interventions and why Venezuela is not Panama 2.0
Operation Absolute Resolve, that resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro, echoes the 1990 U.S. invasion of Panama that brought down Manuel Noriega. But big differences abound.
n.pr
January 4, 2026 at 7:36 PM
Operation Absolute Resolve, that resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro, echoes the 1990 U.S. invasion of Panama that brought down Manuel Noriega. But big differences abound.
Seems like an overlooked issue in Venezuela at the moment. There is a legitimately elected leader who won the 2024 election, and it isn't the opposition leader Machado. Is he still in exile in Spain? Presumably, it would require far more involvement from US to install him in to power.
Remember that there is a legitimately elected president of Venezuela: Edmundo Gonzalez. He won the election in 2024.
January 4, 2026 at 6:02 PM
Seems like an overlooked issue in Venezuela at the moment. There is a legitimately elected leader who won the 2024 election, and it isn't the opposition leader Machado. Is he still in exile in Spain? Presumably, it would require far more involvement from US to install him in to power.
Thread.
So the emerging picture seems to be: Trump Admin imagines it struck a deal with elements of Maduro's regime to hand him over and stay in power, in exchange (presumably) for inviting US oil companies back and stopping oil supplies to Cuba ....
January 4, 2026 at 2:26 PM
Thread.
Reposted by Josh Busby
It’s been clear for many hours now that Trump isn’t and won’t be “running” Venezuela. But because he said it, the elite media headlines it anyway.
How long before Trump aides start walking this back?
Don’t print lies in the newspaper
January 4, 2026 at 3:34 AM
It’s been clear for many hours now that Trump isn’t and won’t be “running” Venezuela. But because he said it, the elite media headlines it anyway.
Reposted by Josh Busby
A CBS News staffer told me this after Tony Dokoupil kicked off his CBS Evening News tenure tonight with a lengthy Pete Hegseth interview:
"If this is what Bari and Tony’s CBS Evening News is going to look like, then the we may as well just call ourselves Trump Administration State TV. Pathetic."
"If this is what Bari and Tony’s CBS Evening News is going to look like, then the we may as well just call ourselves Trump Administration State TV. Pathetic."
January 4, 2026 at 1:52 AM
A CBS News staffer told me this after Tony Dokoupil kicked off his CBS Evening News tenure tonight with a lengthy Pete Hegseth interview:
"If this is what Bari and Tony’s CBS Evening News is going to look like, then the we may as well just call ourselves Trump Administration State TV. Pathetic."
"If this is what Bari and Tony’s CBS Evening News is going to look like, then the we may as well just call ourselves Trump Administration State TV. Pathetic."
Reposted by Josh Busby
Good discussion here with @oonahathaway.bsky.social.
January 4, 2026 at 1:35 AM
Good discussion here with @oonahathaway.bsky.social.
Reposted by Josh Busby
Fascinating
1. Admin may not have informed Congress but has been talking regime change w US oil industry
2. Oil at $60, US firms not excited about major capex to get VZ heavy sour crude
3. Sounds like WH wants to prod oil firms to make their vision happen, more than WH doing US oil's bidding
1. Admin may not have informed Congress but has been talking regime change w US oil industry
2. Oil at $60, US firms not excited about major capex to get VZ heavy sour crude
3. Sounds like WH wants to prod oil firms to make their vision happen, more than WH doing US oil's bidding
a lot of interesting revelations between the lines of this story www.politico.com/news/2026/01...
January 4, 2026 at 1:07 AM
Fascinating
1. Admin may not have informed Congress but has been talking regime change w US oil industry
2. Oil at $60, US firms not excited about major capex to get VZ heavy sour crude
3. Sounds like WH wants to prod oil firms to make their vision happen, more than WH doing US oil's bidding
1. Admin may not have informed Congress but has been talking regime change w US oil industry
2. Oil at $60, US firms not excited about major capex to get VZ heavy sour crude
3. Sounds like WH wants to prod oil firms to make their vision happen, more than WH doing US oil's bidding
Reposted by Josh Busby
Venezuela may seem like a tactical loss for Russia, but in fact it's a strategic win for Putin's vision of the world. new essay:
hegemon.substack.com/p/venezuela-...
hegemon.substack.com/p/venezuela-...
Venezuela Is a Gift to Putin
and a harbinger of more Russian aggression in Europe
hegemon.substack.com
January 3, 2026 at 6:52 PM
Venezuela may seem like a tactical loss for Russia, but in fact it's a strategic win for Putin's vision of the world. new essay:
hegemon.substack.com/p/venezuela-...
hegemon.substack.com/p/venezuela-...
Reposted by Josh Busby
Always a good idea to read @profsaunders.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/what-ha...
What happens now in Venezuela – and the world?
What happens now in Venezuela – and the world? Trump’s no-guardrails foreign policy raises big questions about the global order, not just about who will run Venezuela.
goodauthority.org
January 3, 2026 at 11:56 PM
Always a good idea to read @profsaunders.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/what-ha...
Reposted by Josh Busby
Reposted by Josh Busby
Exactly. These are not the same thing. Either this was a highly kinetic police operation or the US now runs Venezuela. If it's a policing operation, sovereign power of Venezuela doesn't come in as a package deal.
Either it was a limited operation merely to arrest Maduro and move on, or, it is an ongoing major regime change committment that will open up a transition including international and private sector partners. It really can't be both
January 3, 2026 at 10:51 PM
Exactly. These are not the same thing. Either this was a highly kinetic police operation or the US now runs Venezuela. If it's a policing operation, sovereign power of Venezuela doesn't come in as a package deal.
I wish @davidfrenchjag.bsky.social were more active over here. Good post at the other place on today's events.
January 3, 2026 at 9:12 PM
I wish @davidfrenchjag.bsky.social were more active over here. Good post at the other place on today's events.
Cosmetic regime change?
January 3, 2026 at 9:08 PM
Cosmetic regime change?
It’s not clear the Trump administration has thought much about what comes next. Magical thinking may best describe their aspirations for what comes next but maybe they will get lucky.
Read @busbyj2.bsky.social "Washington’s capacity to manage and support a transition in Venezuela is suspect given the downscaling of diplomacy and development assets at State, the dissolution of USAID, and the reorientation of the Department of Defense"
globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
What Trump’s Attack on Venezuela Means for the Region and the World
The US military captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro during a large-scale strike. Experts assess what the unprecedented US intervention means for Venezuela, US foreign policy, and regional and...
globalaffairs.org
January 3, 2026 at 8:38 PM
It’s not clear the Trump administration has thought much about what comes next. Magical thinking may best describe their aspirations for what comes next but maybe they will get lucky.
My contribution to this discussion was just added. I worry about regime change aftermath and the explicit efforts to link this to access to oil and what this means for norms against territorial conquest.
Read commentary by @global-affairs.bsky.social experts at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Lord Jim O'Neill, @dandrezner.bsky.social, Paul Heer, and more. On Venezuela, Trump, and what to expect.
globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
What Trump’s Attack on Venezuela Means for the Region and the World
The US military captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro during a large-scale strike. Experts assess what the unprecedented US intervention means for Venezuela, US foreign policy, and regional and...
globalaffairs.org
January 3, 2026 at 7:42 PM
My contribution to this discussion was just added. I worry about regime change aftermath and the explicit efforts to link this to access to oil and what this means for norms against territorial conquest.