Ben Keys
@benkeys.bsky.social
I’m not a player I just lurk a lot. Economist and Professor of Real Estate and Finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School
Reposted by Ben Keys
Reposted by Ben Keys
There are several good leading indicators for the economy including housing starts, new home sales, the yield curve, heavy truck sales ... unemployment (Sahm rule) is more coincident as are weekly claims.
However we can't be a slave to any indicator ... but this collapse is ... uh, interesting.
However we can't be a slave to any indicator ... but this collapse is ... uh, interesting.
Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in Q4; Down 32.5% Year-over-year in December
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/heav...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/heav...
Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in Q4; Down 32.5% Year-over-year in December
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
January 7, 2026 at 12:12 AM
There are several good leading indicators for the economy including housing starts, new home sales, the yield curve, heavy truck sales ... unemployment (Sahm rule) is more coincident as are weekly claims.
However we can't be a slave to any indicator ... but this collapse is ... uh, interesting.
However we can't be a slave to any indicator ... but this collapse is ... uh, interesting.
Reposted by Ben Keys
Discussing the distinctive concerns of household finance in relation to other fields of financial economics, and outlining directions for the future growth of the field, from John Y. Campbell and Tarun Ramadorai www.nber.org/papers/w34621
January 6, 2026 at 10:00 PM
Discussing the distinctive concerns of household finance in relation to other fields of financial economics, and outlining directions for the future growth of the field, from John Y. Campbell and Tarun Ramadorai www.nber.org/papers/w34621
New year, new op-ed from me and Vincent Reina on the need for aggressive multifaceted action to address the housing affordability crisis:
It’s not simply a zoning story!
thehill.com/opinion/fina...
It’s not simply a zoning story!
thehill.com/opinion/fina...
Don’t let this housing crisis go to waste
Overly restrictive zoning, cautious lending and anti-development politics created a long freeze in housing production.
thehill.com
January 5, 2026 at 1:39 PM
New year, new op-ed from me and Vincent Reina on the need for aggressive multifaceted action to address the housing affordability crisis:
It’s not simply a zoning story!
thehill.com/opinion/fina...
It’s not simply a zoning story!
thehill.com/opinion/fina...
Reposted by Ben Keys
These are 10 of my favourite #UrbanEconomics & #SpatialEconomics articles published in academic journals in 2025, continuing with a tradition started in 2018 (order is alphabetical by first author, no ranking implied):
January 2, 2026 at 12:30 PM
These are 10 of my favourite #UrbanEconomics & #SpatialEconomics articles published in academic journals in 2025, continuing with a tradition started in 2018 (order is alphabetical by first author, no ranking implied):
Reposted by Ben Keys
Heading to Philadelphia for the #ASSA2026. Presenting research you think our readers would be interested in? Working on something you think I should know about? Reach out here or by any of the ways linked in my bio: www.nytimes.com/by/ben-casse... #EconSky
Ben Casselman
Ben Casselman is the chief economics correspondent for The Times. He has reported on the economy for nearly 20 years.
www.nytimes.com
January 2, 2026 at 7:58 PM
Heading to Philadelphia for the #ASSA2026. Presenting research you think our readers would be interested in? Working on something you think I should know about? Reach out here or by any of the ways linked in my bio: www.nytimes.com/by/ben-casse... #EconSky
Reposted by Ben Keys
Mamdani: For too long, those fluent in the good grammar of civility have deployed decorum to mask agendas of cruelty
January 1, 2026 at 8:00 PM
Mamdani: For too long, those fluent in the good grammar of civility have deployed decorum to mask agendas of cruelty
Reposted by Ben Keys
Trump’s Tangled Web of Deal-Making, Policy and Riches
An illustrated guide of the first year of profiteering.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
An illustrated guide of the first year of profiteering.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Trump’s Tangled Web of Deal-Making, Policy and Riches (Gift Article)
The president, his family and some of their closest associates have engaged in a sprawling campaign of deals that stretches across industries and the globe.
www.nytimes.com
January 1, 2026 at 5:58 PM
Trump’s Tangled Web of Deal-Making, Policy and Riches
An illustrated guide of the first year of profiteering.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
An illustrated guide of the first year of profiteering.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Reposted by Ben Keys
Literally destroying the independence of agencies *created* to be independent
They updated the website today to remove the word "independent"
Before (left), after (right)
Before (left), after (right)
December 17, 2025 at 10:09 PM
Literally destroying the independence of agencies *created* to be independent
Reposted by Ben Keys
JUST RELEASED TODAY: North: The Future of Post-Climate America (Oxford University Press)(Discount Code AUFLY30 for 30% or just email me for a copy) global.oup.com/academic/pro...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Buo2...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Buo2...
North: The Future of Post-Climate America (Oxford University Press, 2025)
YouTube video by Jesse M. Keenan
www.youtube.com
December 17, 2025 at 7:22 PM
JUST RELEASED TODAY: North: The Future of Post-Climate America (Oxford University Press)(Discount Code AUFLY30 for 30% or just email me for a copy) global.oup.com/academic/pro...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Buo2...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Buo2...
Reposted by Ben Keys
The rate of sea-level rise along U.S. coastlines has more than doubled over the past 125 years, according to a new analysis, contrasting the Trump administration's widely criticized assessment of climate science released this summer.
Rebuking a Trump climate report, study shows U.S. sea-level rise is accelerating
“It’s not politics. That’s what the data say,” said the study’s author, who examined 70 tide gauges around the country.
www.washingtonpost.com
December 17, 2025 at 9:30 PM
The rate of sea-level rise along U.S. coastlines has more than doubled over the past 125 years, according to a new analysis, contrasting the Trump administration's widely criticized assessment of climate science released this summer.
Reposted by Ben Keys
A task-level minimum pay standard for gig delivery work did not increase drivers' monthly earnings. Higher pay rates were offset by lower tips and more competition for scarce tasks, from Yuan An, Andrew Garin, and Brian K. Kovak www.nber.org/papers/w34545
December 14, 2025 at 2:01 PM
A task-level minimum pay standard for gig delivery work did not increase drivers' monthly earnings. Higher pay rates were offset by lower tips and more competition for scarce tasks, from Yuan An, Andrew Garin, and Brian K. Kovak www.nber.org/papers/w34545
Reposted by Ben Keys
Climate change is an affordability issue
Households face annual costs of roughly $400–$900 from climate change—mainly from disasters, higher insurance, and energy costs—with lower-income families and certain regions hit disproportionately, from @kclausing.bsky.social, Knittel, and @cwolfram.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34525
December 7, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Climate change is an affordability issue
Reposted by Ben Keys
Households face annual costs of roughly $400–$900 from climate change—mainly from disasters, higher insurance, and energy costs—with lower-income families and certain regions hit disproportionately, from @kclausing.bsky.social, Knittel, and @cwolfram.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34525
December 7, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Households face annual costs of roughly $400–$900 from climate change—mainly from disasters, higher insurance, and energy costs—with lower-income families and certain regions hit disproportionately, from @kclausing.bsky.social, Knittel, and @cwolfram.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34525
Reposted by Ben Keys
Incredibly random, but do I know anyone who can put me in touch with Del The Funky Homosapien?
December 2, 2025 at 12:17 AM
Incredibly random, but do I know anyone who can put me in touch with Del The Funky Homosapien?
Reposted by Ben Keys
Just trying to understand these two news items published within 5 days of each other
November 30, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Just trying to understand these two news items published within 5 days of each other
Reposted by Ben Keys
"Western civilization," the font, the 11 stars - 11 states in the confederacy, for the record.
Why is this never news? Why are we letting our government agencies do this sort of thing while the news agencies report on hallucinated trade deals and act like everything is normal
Why is this never news? Why are we letting our government agencies do this sort of thing while the news agencies report on hallucinated trade deals and act like everything is normal
November 29, 2025 at 5:20 PM
"Western civilization," the font, the 11 stars - 11 states in the confederacy, for the record.
Why is this never news? Why are we letting our government agencies do this sort of thing while the news agencies report on hallucinated trade deals and act like everything is normal
Why is this never news? Why are we letting our government agencies do this sort of thing while the news agencies report on hallucinated trade deals and act like everything is normal
Reposted by Ben Keys
With a win over the Eagles, the Bears move to 9-3 on the season.
That matches their best start since 2010 🤯
That matches their best start since 2010 🤯
November 28, 2025 at 11:31 PM
With a win over the Eagles, the Bears move to 9-3 on the season.
That matches their best start since 2010 🤯
That matches their best start since 2010 🤯
Reposted by Ben Keys
It's Thanksgiving and I'm feeling generous so here's Busta Rhymes and the TMNT
November 27, 2025 at 5:38 PM
It's Thanksgiving and I'm feeling generous so here's Busta Rhymes and the TMNT
Reposted by Ben Keys
"We show that rising insurance premiums, driven by changing reinsurance prices that reflect increasing catastrophic risk, are being capitalized into house prices, and may further reduce demand for properties exposed to increasing disaster risk."
Philip Mulder and I are excited to share a major update to our working paper, "Property Insurance and Disaster Risk: New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data," with NYT coverage and making our data publicly available!
www.nber.org/papers/w32579
(1/n)
www.nber.org/papers/w32579
(1/n)
Property Insurance and Disaster Risk: New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
November 27, 2025 at 5:03 PM
"We show that rising insurance premiums, driven by changing reinsurance prices that reflect increasing catastrophic risk, are being capitalized into house prices, and may further reduce demand for properties exposed to increasing disaster risk."
A very happy Taco Party for Dragons at Robbie’s House to all who celebrate!
November 24, 2025 at 1:00 AM
A very happy Taco Party for Dragons at Robbie’s House to all who celebrate!
Reposted by Ben Keys
"Climate shock." New study shows that rising property insurance premiums caused by growing weather extremes are cascading into the real estate market. Homes in the ZIP codes most exposed to hurricanes and wildfires would sell for an average of $43,900 less than they would otherwise.
November 20, 2025 at 11:12 PM
"Climate shock." New study shows that rising property insurance premiums caused by growing weather extremes are cascading into the real estate market. Homes in the ZIP codes most exposed to hurricanes and wildfires would sell for an average of $43,900 less than they would otherwise.
Reposted by Ben Keys
Home Prices on a Warming Planet
"chaos in the insurance market is starting to eat into the real estate market in some places, a scenario that experts have dreaded for years"...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/c...
"chaos in the insurance market is starting to eat into the real estate market in some places, a scenario that experts have dreaded for years"...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/c...
Home Prices on a Warming Planet
www.nytimes.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Home Prices on a Warming Planet
"chaos in the insurance market is starting to eat into the real estate market in some places, a scenario that experts have dreaded for years"...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/c...
"chaos in the insurance market is starting to eat into the real estate market in some places, a scenario that experts have dreaded for years"...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/c...
Reposted by Ben Keys
A member of Congress just filled out a threat report with the Capitol Police naming the President of the United States as the person making the threat.
Think of where we were on January 7, 2021 when the country overwhelmingly repudiated what had happened.
And think of where we are now.
Think of where we were on January 7, 2021 when the country overwhelmingly repudiated what had happened.
And think of where we are now.
November 21, 2025 at 1:18 PM
A member of Congress just filled out a threat report with the Capitol Police naming the President of the United States as the person making the threat.
Think of where we were on January 7, 2021 when the country overwhelmingly repudiated what had happened.
And think of where we are now.
Think of where we were on January 7, 2021 when the country overwhelmingly repudiated what had happened.
And think of where we are now.
Reposted by Ben Keys
Call for Graduate Student Fellowship Applicants: The NBER is accepting applications for 15 dissertation-writer fellowships on various topics for the 2026-27 academic year. Deadlines are Jan. 4-8, 2026. Further information: www.nber.org/career-resou...
November 20, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Call for Graduate Student Fellowship Applicants: The NBER is accepting applications for 15 dissertation-writer fellowships on various topics for the 2026-27 academic year. Deadlines are Jan. 4-8, 2026. Further information: www.nber.org/career-resou...