Ambarish Karmalkar
@ambarish.bsky.social
Climate Scientist | Studying how global warming affects us locally | Assistant Professor @ University of Rhode Island | https://web.uri.edu/geo/ambarish-karmalkar/
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
We had a paper ourselves debunking the original argument that a weaker gradient leads to a wavier jet and more cold extremes.
doi.org/10.1029/2024...
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doi.org/10.1029/2024...
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January 31, 2026 at 3:29 AM
We had a paper ourselves debunking the original argument that a weaker gradient leads to a wavier jet and more cold extremes.
doi.org/10.1029/2024...
4/
doi.org/10.1029/2024...
4/
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
I've seen several Big Climate Accounts™ post about how the recent winter storm was made worse by climate change. It's a convenient narrative.
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But what is "worse"? Colder temperatures? More snow? More freezing rain? Is there any primary literature supporting the idea of worse snowstorms?
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But what is "worse"? Colder temperatures? More snow? More freezing rain? Is there any primary literature supporting the idea of worse snowstorms?
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January 31, 2026 at 3:29 AM
I've seen several Big Climate Accounts™ post about how the recent winter storm was made worse by climate change. It's a convenient narrative.
s
But what is "worse"? Colder temperatures? More snow? More freezing rain? Is there any primary literature supporting the idea of worse snowstorms?
1/
s
But what is "worse"? Colder temperatures? More snow? More freezing rain? Is there any primary literature supporting the idea of worse snowstorms?
1/
"why there is no straightforward answer and proposes clear and reasoned ways forward."
I shall read this ... someday #verylongread #preprint
I shall read this ... someday #verylongread #preprint
New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.
How well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded?
Abstract. Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement agreed to limit the long-term increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 °C relative to p...
essd.copernicus.org
January 31, 2026 at 1:56 PM
"why there is no straightforward answer and proposes clear and reasoned ways forward."
I shall read this ... someday #verylongread #preprint
I shall read this ... someday #verylongread #preprint
Every new gadget should ship with this image. www.nationalgeographic.com/history/arti...
What the archaeologists of the future will discover about us
Earth is covered with technofossils, or man-made materials, that will last for centuries and maybe even longer.
www.nationalgeographic.com
January 30, 2026 at 4:34 PM
Every new gadget should ship with this image. www.nationalgeographic.com/history/arti...
We are not even remotely ready to fight this.
AI technologies now enable coordinated "swarms" of inauthentic social media activity that can manipulate public opinion at scale by mimicking human behavior, generating convincing falsehoods, and fabricating false consensus.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
How malicious AI swarms can threaten democracy
The fusion of agentic AI and LLMs marks a new frontier in information warfare
www.science.org
January 26, 2026 at 3:03 PM
We are not even remotely ready to fight this.
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
I love how this graphic is totally unhelpful for determining whether you're going to get 30 inches of snow or half an inch of ice.
January 23, 2026 at 8:57 PM
I love how this graphic is totally unhelpful for determining whether you're going to get 30 inches of snow or half an inch of ice.
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
In a warming climate, extreme cold can still occur.
The occurrence of an extreme cold event does not mean that climate change caused it, nor does it mean climate change isn't real.
But on sufficiently long timescales, extreme cold events are occurring less often.
doi.org/10.1126/scia...
The occurrence of an extreme cold event does not mean that climate change caused it, nor does it mean climate change isn't real.
But on sufficiently long timescales, extreme cold events are occurring less often.
doi.org/10.1126/scia...
Models and observations agree on fewer and milder midlatitude cold extremes even over recent decades of rapid Arctic warming
Midlatitude extreme cold events have decreased in severity and frequency over recent decades, in agreement with models.
doi.org
January 22, 2026 at 4:14 PM
In a warming climate, extreme cold can still occur.
The occurrence of an extreme cold event does not mean that climate change caused it, nor does it mean climate change isn't real.
But on sufficiently long timescales, extreme cold events are occurring less often.
doi.org/10.1126/scia...
The occurrence of an extreme cold event does not mean that climate change caused it, nor does it mean climate change isn't real.
But on sufficiently long timescales, extreme cold events are occurring less often.
doi.org/10.1126/scia...
AI folks inventing shiny “tools” for issues that already have low-tech, tried&tested solutions.
"[AI agents] could be more creative, like an artificial flower or tree. This “smart” classroom plant could change colour based on the collective mood of the class" 😒
macleans.ca/the-year-ahe...
"[AI agents] could be more creative, like an artificial flower or tree. This “smart” classroom plant could change colour based on the collective mood of the class" 😒
macleans.ca/the-year-ahe...
Robots in the Classroom - Macleans.ca
In 2026, AI will teach students—and students will teach AI
macleans.ca
January 23, 2026 at 12:03 AM
AI folks inventing shiny “tools” for issues that already have low-tech, tried&tested solutions.
"[AI agents] could be more creative, like an artificial flower or tree. This “smart” classroom plant could change colour based on the collective mood of the class" 😒
macleans.ca/the-year-ahe...
"[AI agents] could be more creative, like an artificial flower or tree. This “smart” classroom plant could change colour based on the collective mood of the class" 😒
macleans.ca/the-year-ahe...
Does anyone know of a Python code to create this beautiful dataviz?
Globally, no single day in 2025 was cooler than its 1991-2020 average.
climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...
climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...
January 14, 2026 at 2:49 PM
Does anyone know of a Python code to create this beautiful dataviz?
I honestly thought December was way colder in the Northeast than what the numbers indicate. Seven mild Decembers in a row really messes up your perception...
January 14, 2026 at 3:27 AM
I honestly thought December was way colder in the Northeast than what the numbers indicate. Seven mild Decembers in a row really messes up your perception...
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
2025 goes down as the ~3rd-warmest year on record (based on ERA5).
Like in 2024, every single day this past year was warmer than the average of even the most recent reference period (1991-2020).
Like in 2024, every single day this past year was warmer than the average of even the most recent reference period (1991-2020).
January 4, 2026 at 5:38 PM
2025 goes down as the ~3rd-warmest year on record (based on ERA5).
Like in 2024, every single day this past year was warmer than the average of even the most recent reference period (1991-2020).
Like in 2024, every single day this past year was warmer than the average of even the most recent reference period (1991-2020).
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
Paleoclimatologist Jessica Tierney recently published a global temperature record covering almost the past half-billion years. According to her model, 50 million years ago, inland temperatures approached 122 degrees Fahrenheit. www.quantamagazine.org/climate-extr...
December 29, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Paleoclimatologist Jessica Tierney recently published a global temperature record covering almost the past half-billion years. According to her model, 50 million years ago, inland temperatures approached 122 degrees Fahrenheit. www.quantamagazine.org/climate-extr...
Rates of coastal #sealevelrise in the US have doubled in the past 125 years, and that present-day rates are well above the historical average. Paper by Chris Piecuch: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
The Rate of U.S. Coastal Sea‐Level Rise Doubled in the Past Century
Tide-gauge records are used to quantify relative sea-level (RSL) acceleration along the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during the past century Average CONUS RSL rates doubled from 2 mm yr−1 ${\text{yr}}...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
December 23, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Rates of coastal #sealevelrise in the US have doubled in the past 125 years, and that present-day rates are well above the historical average. Paper by Chris Piecuch: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
Scientists are supposed to be happy when their predictions are skillful, right?
Why do I not feel happy?
Why do I not feel happy?
December 19, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Scientists are supposed to be happy when their predictions are skillful, right?
Why do I not feel happy?
Why do I not feel happy?
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
Do not cite an academic paper unless you’ve read it
AI Is Inventing Academic Papers That Don't Exist -- And They're Being Cited in Real Journals
Academic articles from authors using large language model are creating an ecosystem of fake research that threatens human knowledge itself.
www.rollingstone.com
December 19, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Do not cite an academic paper unless you’ve read it
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
I've put together my predictions for 2026 and 2027 temperatures over at The Climate Brink. I expect 2026 will likely end up similar to 2023 and 2025 at ~1.4C, while 2027 will likely be considerably warmer (conditional on El Nino): www.theclimatebrink....
December 20, 2025 at 5:43 PM
I've put together my predictions for 2026 and 2027 temperatures over at The Climate Brink. I expect 2026 will likely end up similar to 2023 and 2025 at ~1.4C, while 2027 will likely be considerably warmer (conditional on El Nino): www.theclimatebrink....
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
Western Washington is currently experiencing record flooding from a series of strong atmospheric rivers. 12 rivers are at major flood stage. 100,000 people await evacuation orders.
Will some places see less severe climate impacts than others? Yes. Does anywhere promise safe haven? Absolutely not.
Will some places see less severe climate impacts than others? Yes. Does anywhere promise safe haven? Absolutely not.
Climate migration is difficult to study, and even harder to predict, because a complex constellation of factors guides the decision to pick up and move. But some experts say a historic population shift has already begun, and Western Washington should start preparing now to become a “climate haven.”
Is the Pacific Northwest ready for a wave of climate migration?
www.kuow.org
December 11, 2025 at 1:35 AM
Western Washington is currently experiencing record flooding from a series of strong atmospheric rivers. 12 rivers are at major flood stage. 100,000 people await evacuation orders.
Will some places see less severe climate impacts than others? Yes. Does anywhere promise safe haven? Absolutely not.
Will some places see less severe climate impacts than others? Yes. Does anywhere promise safe haven? Absolutely not.
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
This is a staggering cool JWST image of one of the most terrifying star systems I have ever seen. Apep is a monster… *three* monsters, actually, and blasting out radiation and dust and junk at speeds to freeze the soul.
Read all about it!
badastronomy.beehiiv.com/p/a-ridiculo...
🔭 🧪
Read all about it!
badastronomy.beehiiv.com/p/a-ridiculo...
🔭 🧪
A ridiculously jaw-dropping JWST image of a fantastically terrifying star system
Apep consists of three immense and immensely powerful stars blasting out a fierce dusty wind
badastronomy.beehiiv.com
December 1, 2025 at 4:08 PM
This is a staggering cool JWST image of one of the most terrifying star systems I have ever seen. Apep is a monster… *three* monsters, actually, and blasting out radiation and dust and junk at speeds to freeze the soul.
Read all about it!
badastronomy.beehiiv.com/p/a-ridiculo...
🔭 🧪
Read all about it!
badastronomy.beehiiv.com/p/a-ridiculo...
🔭 🧪
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
"They're trying to change our habits, because all of the projections rely on people becoming truly dependent on the technology. Whether or not it's actually a good thing for society isn't considered to be a factor."
Analysis: OpenAI is a loss-making machine, how can it survive?
Don't call it a bubble! Loss-making monster OpenAI is on the hook for $1.4 trillion (with a T) in compute commitments. How can this go on?
www.windowscentral.com
November 29, 2025 at 11:30 PM
"They're trying to change our habits, because all of the projections rely on people becoming truly dependent on the technology. Whether or not it's actually a good thing for society isn't considered to be a factor."
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
Realtors know that, in many parts of the country, if you educate people about climate risk, the housing market will collapse.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...
Zillow Removes Climate Risk Scores From Home Listings
www.nytimes.com
November 30, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Realtors know that, in many parts of the country, if you educate people about climate risk, the housing market will collapse.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...
Kicking off the morning with a fresh dose of pseudoscience in my inbox:
"Global Warming is not anthropogenic, it's a direct result of increasing proximity to the center of the Milky Way."
"Global Warming is not anthropogenic, it's a direct result of increasing proximity to the center of the Milky Way."
November 30, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Kicking off the morning with a fresh dose of pseudoscience in my inbox:
"Global Warming is not anthropogenic, it's a direct result of increasing proximity to the center of the Milky Way."
"Global Warming is not anthropogenic, it's a direct result of increasing proximity to the center of the Milky Way."
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
It's unavoidable that mid-career scientists are (a) (currently) better known by editors and (b) are slammed for time with proposals/bureaucracy. Timely recommendation of relevant younger scientists as reviewers is one key to breaking this deadlock (instead of guiltily letting it sit in your inbox).
I have recently been quite successful, rarely invite more than 4-5 for two reviews. It pays out to invest time in searching for possible reviewers, I focus on late stage PhDs and postdocs that are likely to have time and write them why I believe they are a good fit for this manuscript.
November 29, 2025 at 9:16 AM
It's unavoidable that mid-career scientists are (a) (currently) better known by editors and (b) are slammed for time with proposals/bureaucracy. Timely recommendation of relevant younger scientists as reviewers is one key to breaking this deadlock (instead of guiltily letting it sit in your inbox).
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
If I had a euro for every meeting in which someone asked if we'd thought about using AI to fill gaps in data, I'd have enough euros to fill them with actual weather stations.
November 29, 2025 at 10:08 AM
If I had a euro for every meeting in which someone asked if we'd thought about using AI to fill gaps in data, I'd have enough euros to fill them with actual weather stations.
Saw a fair bit of this at AGU last year and it just didn't sit well with me. With the AGU season upon us, a friendly reminder that your **cool** graphic might turn people off.
I don’t know if anyone else notices or cares, but when I see a presentation in which the speaker uses obviously generated-AI images to illustrate their slides, it makes me immediately less confident in whatever other content they’re presenting.
November 28, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Saw a fair bit of this at AGU last year and it just didn't sit well with me. With the AGU season upon us, a friendly reminder that your **cool** graphic might turn people off.
"recycling rates of 10% are ineffective against annual plastic production of >460 million tonnes."
Recycling alone cannot end the plastic pollution crisis
www.cell.com/cell-reports...
#plasticpollution
#recycling is ineffective
#reduce
#reuse
www.cell.com/cell-reports...
#plasticpollution
#recycling is ineffective
#reduce
#reuse
Recycling alone cannot end the plastic pollution crisis
Recycling has been touted as a solution to combat the global plastic pollution crisis,
but recycling rates of 10% are ineffective against annual plastic production of >460
million tonnes. Solutions be...
www.cell.com
November 27, 2025 at 1:19 PM
"recycling rates of 10% are ineffective against annual plastic production of >460 million tonnes."