Peter Fallesen
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pfallesen.bsky.social
Peter Fallesen
@pfallesen.bsky.social

Research Professor. I study bad stuff in families. ROCKWOOL Foundation and Stockholm University. AE at EJP and ESR. President of the Danish Demographic Society.
Florence-based (together with Ann and Augusta).
www.peterfallesen.com .. more

Psychology 26%
Political science 20%

Stadig for tidligt til helt at være sikker på hvorvidt vi ser udligning nu, men ja lige nu går det op. Bliver spændende når vi til februar begynder at kunne se de aldersspecifikke fødselsrater for 2025

Reposted by Peter Fallesen

In an interesting turn of events, US and Danish government came up with the same to help with the affordability crisis: longer mortgages!

That has sparked some backlash. But in the US, it seems the discussion is focusing on the wrong stuff.

Well, let’s try to learn from 🇩🇰.

Do you know year of Fire Horse? And do you know the total fertility rate dropped 26% in the last fire horse year in Japan?

My new blog post explains how the superstition changed fertility pattern in the last Fire Horse Years (1906, 1966) in Japan.

2026 will be Fire Horse...
New WP: We study how minimum wage increases affect poverty and food hardship in the U.S from 1981-2019. Different from recent work, we study the Supplemental Poverty Measure + two measures of food hardship, factor in cost-of-living differences, and more. www.iza.org/publications...
🚀✨The Editorial Board of ESR is growing!

We’re happy to welcome PeterFallesen @pfallesen.bsky.social

( ROCKWOOL Foundation, Denmark) as a new Associate Editor!!

We are thrilled to welcome Peter to the Editorial Board and look forward to working together!

academic.oup.com/esr/pages/Ed...
Do you know year of Fire Horse? And do you know the total fertility rate dropped 26% in the last fire horse year in Japan?

My new blog post explains how the superstition changed fertility pattern in the last Fire Horse Years (1906, 1966) in Japan.

2026 will be Fire Horse...

I’ll be at the pre-conference workshop on Tuesday
🚨Job Offer🚨PhD Student Position
The @lshtm.bsky.social, in partnership with the @mpidr.bsky.social is opening an 18-month Research Assistant position, with the successful candidate embarking on a PhD program at LSHTM.
www.demogr.mpg.de/en/career_61...
@ezagheni.bsky.social #phd #jobs #demography

Reposted by Peter Fallesen

Bologna is calling
EAPS.nl | Call for Submissions
EAPS.nl
www.eaps.nl

Reposted by Peter Fallesen

PhD studentship with quantitative focus: su.varbi.com/en/what:job/...
su.varbi.com
🚨 New Job Alert! 🚨

Join Dr @ewabatyra.bsky.social as a Postdoc Researcher in Demography!

Contribute to a global study on disparities in reproductive behaviour, focusing on childbearing age & fertility levels 👨‍👩‍👦‍👦

Apply now 👉 www.sociology.ox.ac.uk/event/postdo...
Soon to open offer for a *funded* PhD to study child poverty dynamics at @demosocupf.bsky.social @upf.edu If you have an interest in quantitative methods, social policy and child poverty this may be for you! Feel free to reach out for enquiries

Helt enig

Nok for tidligt at konkludere, men vi må forvente en stigning inden for en årrække når den del af faldet, der skyldes udsættelse pga øget uddannelsesoptag blandt yngre kvinder, begynder at blive indhentet
This is a fabulous response by my colleague Kevin Munger to "that" Economist piece about the EUI.

Perhaps @spignal.bsky.social and @jhooper.bsky.social might be interested!

kevinmunger.substack.com/p/i-guess-th...
I guess that makes me...Horace Slughorn?
or maybe the centaur named "Firenze"
kevinmunger.substack.com

New albums from The Armed and from Alex G both been in high rotation in my headphones
[New finding!]

Ryohei Mogi, Ryota Mugiyama, & Alyce Raybould (@alyceraybould.bsky.social ) has shown that individuals without a romantic partner are more likely to revise their fertility desires downward.‪

Gambetta and Herzog wrote a book that indirectly tried to parse out the mechanisms by looking at Islamic extremism press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
Engineers of Jihad
A groundbreaking investigation into why so many Islamic radicals are engineers
press.princeton.edu
Want to know why demographers aren't panicking over low birth rates? @lesja.bsky.social, @shelleydclark.bsky.social, & I have a new piece in @theconversation.com explaining the faulty logic that underlies the low birth rate-induced population panic than fuels the pronatalism movement. 1/n
Fears that falling birth rates in US could lead to population collapse are based on faulty assumptions
While the changes in population structure that accompany low birth rates are real, the impact of these changes has been dramatically overstated.
theconversation.com
A Nazi owns Twitter, right wing billionaires own the Wall Street Journal and the LA Times, and CBS is run by a right wing nepo baby who just fired one of the network’s biggest stars for criticizing Donald Trump. Here’s why America has a left-wing media bias problem.

Implications: when studying how events (disasters, policy changes, etc.) affect birth outcomes, we must account for conception rate changes. What looks like changing health might result simply from parts of the population changing conceptive behavior. 4/4

More generally, underlying baseline risk matters for magnitudes. We find that temporal variation in conceptions explains around 8% of preterm birth fluctuations for White mothers, and 12-15% for Black mothers. 3/4

Using US birth data (2010-2019), we show that a conception "shock" creates a wave pattern: fewer conceptions → fewer preterm births beginning from 5 months later → but more from 9 months before rates normalize. 2/4

🔴New working paper with @marcocozzani.bsky.social and @juhoharkonen.bsky.social. We describe the temporal link between conception timing and preterm birth rates. When conception rates fluctuate, preterm birth proportions shift predictably but with different magnitudes depending on baseline risk. 1/4
labdisia.disia.unifi.it

Congrats Zach!

but no difference across post-dissolution living arrangements, including for joint living and parents' subsequent partner status. With M.N. Nielsen and M. Gähler. [2/2]

Our article on parental union dissolution and children’s emotional and behavioral problems appears in the most recent issue of @sfjournal.bsky.social. We find a longterm increase in SDQ score following parental union dissolution [1/2]

academic.oup.com/sf/article/1...

Reposted by Peter Fallesen

Much of that distortion can be traced back to a few hyperactive users
-Just 10% of users produce 97% of political tweets
-A mere 0.1% of users share 80% of fake news
This leads us to believe that society is more polarized, angry, & deluded than it really is. www.theguardian.com/books/2025/j...
Are a few people ruining the internet for the rest of us?
Why does the online world seem so toxic compared with normal life? Our research shows that a small number of divisive accounts could be responsible – and offers a way out
www.theguardian.com
Despite living in wealthy societies, too many children still grow up in poverty.

What can be done—nationally and locally—to change this?

Read our latest Policy Brief for the #Mapineq project by @janierola.net & @mjantti.bsky.social and find it out!

🔗 tinyurl.com/54bwznh9