Managers predict global rally, warn

by Justin Wolfers Reposted by Timothy D. McBride, Patrick Dunleavy, Joe R. Feagin

Scholar power: 105.0%

Story's scientific field profile

Economics 47%, Business 32%, Computer science 21%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Justin Wolfers	38%	58	86.8%
🎓 Timothy D. McBride	23%	23	11.0%
🎓 Patrick Dunleavy	7%	46	4.7%
🎓 Joe R. Feagin	3%	62	2.4%
Total			105.0%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index + sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

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Recency

Reposts

Scholar power

51.0%

20.7 h

152

105.0%

Ranking score

1.113

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Justin Wolfers

@justinwolfers.bsky.social

Context you rarely hear: global stocks are up about 30% over the past year. U.S. stocks? Around 18%. That means American investors underperformed the world by about 12 percentage points, even while headlines called it a “fantastic year.”

December 27, 2025 at 12:52 PM

by Michael Pettis

41%

Scholar power: 41.6%

Story's scientific field profile

Economics 47%, Business 32%, Computer science 21%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Michael Pettis	49%	8	41.6%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

Ranking score inputs

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Recency

Reposts

Scholar power

45.0%

1.0 h

3

41.6%

Ranking score

0.375

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Michael Pettis

@michaelpettis.bsky.social

5/5
Which will it be? Beijing says it is determined to rebalance the economy, but as long as it sets excessively high GDP growth targets, it cannot allow excess investment in infrastructure and manufacturing to decline. We'll see which path they choose in 2026.

December 28, 2025 at 8:30 AM

by Michael Pettis

41%

Scholar power: 41.6%

Story's scientific field profile

Economics 47%, Business 32%, Computer science 21%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Michael Pettis	49%	8	41.6%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

Ranking score inputs

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Recency

Reposts

Scholar power

50.0%

3.4 h

2

41.6%

Ranking score

0.129

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Michael Pettis

@michaelpettis.bsky.social

1/7
There's a lot of recent talk about a strengthening of the RMB in 2026, and while I expect that there will be some strengthening, its impact will mostly be to reverse part of the real RMB weakening of recent years.
www.wsj.com/finance/curr...

Trump Wants a Weaker Dollar. Some Chinese Say He Has a Point.

A significant weakening of the dollar versus China’s currency didn’t happen in 2025, but some forecasters say it’s a wild card to watch in the new year.

www.wsj.com

December 28, 2025 at 6:10 AM

by Justin Wolfers

86%

Scholar power: 86.8%

Story's scientific field profile

Economics 47%, Business 32%, Computer science 21%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Justin Wolfers	38%	58	86.8%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

Ranking score inputs

Relevance

Recency

Reposts

Scholar power

46.0%

19.7 h

238

86.8%

Ranking score

0.364

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Reposted by Steve Keen

26%

Scholar power: 26.4%

Story's scientific field profile

Economics 47%, Business 32%, Computer science 21%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Steve Keen	49%	29	26.4%

Formula for scholar power: sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

Ranking score inputs

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Recency

Reposts

Scholar power

47.0%

11.0 h

9

26.4%

Ranking score

0.086

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

by Brendan Nyhan Reposted by David Darmofal, David R. Miller

20%

Scholar power: 20.7%

Story's scientific field profile

Economics 47%, Business 32%, Computer science 21%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Brendan Nyhan	2%	51	4.3%
🎓 David Darmofal	33%	11	10.9%
🎓 David R. Miller	12%	21	5.5%
Total			20.7%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index + sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

Ranking score inputs

Relevance

Recency

Reposts

Scholar power

47.0%

8.0 h

0

20.7%

Ranking score

0.08

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Brendan Nyhan

@brendannyhan.bsky.social

Things I remain shocked by:
-People in industries like journalism and education that are going to be turned upside down by AI who barely use or understand it
-People in those industries (often the same ones) who still feel comfortable making sweeping claims about AI's capabilities and limitations

December 28, 2025 at 1:31 AM

by Andrew Scott

37%

Scholar power: 37.9%

Story's scientific field profile

Economics 47%, Business 32%, Computer science 21%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Andrew Scott	35%	13	37.9%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

Ranking score inputs

Relevance

Recency

Reposts

Scholar power

45.0%

23.7 h

29

37.9%

Ranking score

0.054

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Otto English

@ottoenglish.bsky.social

If only everyone had predicted this including me.

Here's something I wrote at the time

bylinetimes.com/2021/05/19/t...

Currently, the only people likely to benefit from
the deal are Australian farmers. For while the rise
in UK exports to Australia will be fairly negligible,
the boost in trade the other way could be as much
as 83%. Australia is the second-largest producer of
beef and lamb in the world and the UK is a ready-
made export market, ripe for exploitation,

December 27, 2025 at 9:47 AM

Reposted by David R. Miller, Brendan Nyhan, Robert C. Richards

7%

Scholar power: 7.5%

Story's scientific field profile

Economics 47%, Business 32%, Computer science 21%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 David R. Miller	12%	21	5.5%
🎓 Brendan Nyhan	2%	51	1.4%
🎓 Robert C. Richards	1%	30	0.5%
Total			7.5%

Formula for scholar power: sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

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Recency

Reposts

Scholar power

49.0%

12.7 h

84

7.5%

Ranking score

0.046

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Bobby Allyn

@bobbyallyn.bsky.social

The Trump administration is rolling out the red carpet for once-besieged prediction apps like Polymarket and Kalshi, with millions pouring into bets on the midterms. The companies wave away concerns about foreign influence and partisan meddling www.npr.org/2025/12/23/n...

Election betting on prediction markets apps is set to boom ahead of midterms

Online prediction markets, like Polymarket and Kalshi, were under intense scrutiny in the Biden administration. But Trump officials are embracing the controversial apps, raising new fears about electi...

www.npr.org

December 27, 2025 at 8:48 PM

Reposted by Steve Keen

26%

Scholar power: 26.4%

Story's scientific field profile

Economics 47%, Business 32%, Computer science 21%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Steve Keen	49%	29	26.4%

Formula for scholar power: sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

Ranking score inputs

Relevance

Recency

Reposts

Scholar power

53.0%

18.4 h

4

26.4%

Ranking score

0.033

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Reposted by David Darmofal

10%

Scholar power: 10.9%

Story's scientific field profile

Economics 47%, Business 32%, Computer science 21%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 David Darmofal	33%	11	10.9%

Formula for scholar power: sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

Ranking score inputs

Relevance

Recency

Reposts

Scholar power

53.0%

19.7 h

20

10.9%

Ranking score

0.022

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Bill Scher

@billscher.bsky.social

“Corporate bankruptcies surged in 2025 …At least 717 companies …the highest tally since 2010…

“…the rise in filings is most apparent among industrials …The sector has been hit hard by President Donald Trump’s ever-fluid tariff policies”

www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Bankruptcies soar as companies grapple with inflation, tariffs

Businesses in vulnerable sectors found themselves caught between rising tariffs and beleaguered consumers.

www.washingtonpost.com

December 27, 2025 at 1:49 PM

by Razelle Kurzrock

14%

Scholar power: 14.1%

Story's scientific field profile

Economics 47%, Business 32%, Computer science 21%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Razelle Kurzrock	4%	139	14.1%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

Ranking score inputs

Relevance

Recency

Reposts

Scholar power

58.0%

17.5 h

0

14.1%

Ranking score

0.019

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

by Frances H. Arnold

17%

Scholar power: 17%

Story's scientific field profile

Economics 47%, Business 32%, Computer science 21%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Frances H. Arnold	-	135	-

Reposted by Bruce D. Baker

3%

Scholar power: 3.1%

Story's scientific field profile

Economics 47%, Business 32%, Computer science 21%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Bruce D. Baker	6%	26	3.1%

Formula for scholar power: sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

Ranking score inputs

Relevance

Recency

Reposts

Scholar power

50.0%

19.1 h

608

3.1%

Ranking score

0.017

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

by Matthew Bodie

14%

Scholar power: 14.4%

Story's scientific field profile

Economics 47%, Business 32%, Computer science 21%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Matthew Bodie	17%	8	14.4%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

Ranking score inputs

Relevance

Recency

Reposts

Scholar power

52.0%

12.5 h

0

14.4%

Ranking score

0.016

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Matt Bodie

@matthewtbodie.bsky.social

And this:

www.rollingstone.com/politics/pol...

The Great American Bubble Machine

Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression -- and they're about to d

www.rollingstone.com

December 27, 2025 at 9:02 PM

Reposted by Randa Slim

0%

Scholar power: 0.7%

Story's scientific field profile

Economics 47%, Business 32%, Computer science 21%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Randa Slim	3%	6	0.7%

Formula for scholar power: sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

Ranking score inputs

Relevance

Recency

Reposts

Scholar power

50.0%

17.7 h

2203

0.7%

Ranking score

0.011

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Reposted by Scott A. Imberman

4%

Scholar power: 4.8%

Story's scientific field profile

Economics 47%, Business 32%, Computer science 21%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Scott A. Imberman	10%	23	4.8%

Formula for scholar power: sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

Ranking score inputs

Relevance

Recency

Reposts

Scholar power

47.0%

23.4 h

65

4.8%

Ranking score

0.008

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

NPR

@npr.org

Online prediction markets, like Polymarket and Kalshi, were under intense scrutiny in the Biden administration. But Trump officials are embracing the controversial apps, raising new fears about election interference ahead of the midterms. n.pr/4sfSvX5

Election betting on prediction markets apps is set to boom ahead of midterms

Online prediction markets, like Polymarket and Kalshi, were under intense scrutiny in the Biden administration. But Trump officials are embracing the controversial apps, raising new fears about election interference ahead of the midterms.

n.pr

December 27, 2025 at 10:06 AM

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Managers predict global rally, warn

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Managers predict global rally, warn

Scholar power: 105.0%

Scholar power: 41.6%

Scholar power: 41.6%

Scholar power: 86.8%

Scholar power: 26.4%

Scholar power: 20.7%

Scholar power: 37.9%

Scholar power: 7.5%

Scholar power: 26.4%

Scholar power: 10.9%

Scholar power: 14.1%

Scholar power: 17%

Scholar power: 3.1%

Scholar power: 14.4%

Scholar power: 0.7%

Scholar power: 4.8%

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