Will Cubbison וויל קביסון
@wccubbison.bsky.social
Campaign professional. Political Scientist (Experiments & Voter Behavior mostly). Baker.
North Carolina, Israel, other
North Carolina, Israel, other
It is based on an algorithm that we know is purposefully manipulated by a foreign actor closely tied to a government that is objectively opposed to US interests. Compelling case to be made that Biden banning it pre-election would have helped politically
not sure if this really supports Shor’s “TikTok makes users Republican” takeaway so much as it means “low info voters tend toward the right these days” (which, like, duh), but it does seem pretty conclusive evidence that it is, in fact, bad for left-wing causes
March 18, 2025 at 8:18 PM
It is based on an algorithm that we know is purposefully manipulated by a foreign actor closely tied to a government that is objectively opposed to US interests. Compelling case to be made that Biden banning it pre-election would have helped politically
Reposted by Will Cubbison וויל קביסון
Not new! In The Political Beliefs of Americans (1967) Cantril & Free found that Americans were "ideological conservatives" opposed to abstract "big government", but "operational liberals" for lots of specific spending. It doesn't help that they have no clue re distribution of spending.
March 2, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Not new! In The Political Beliefs of Americans (1967) Cantril & Free found that Americans were "ideological conservatives" opposed to abstract "big government", but "operational liberals" for lots of specific spending. It doesn't help that they have no clue re distribution of spending.
Reposted by Will Cubbison וויל קביסון
Back to the AfD: This is asking people if the AfD being in government would be in good thing.
Just 16% of the conservative CDU/CSU voters (marked as “Union”) say yes. Obviously a lot less for left voters.
(Again h/t @mathieugallard.bsky.social)
Just 16% of the conservative CDU/CSU voters (marked as “Union”) say yes. Obviously a lot less for left voters.
(Again h/t @mathieugallard.bsky.social)
February 23, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Back to the AfD: This is asking people if the AfD being in government would be in good thing.
Just 16% of the conservative CDU/CSU voters (marked as “Union”) say yes. Obviously a lot less for left voters.
(Again h/t @mathieugallard.bsky.social)
Just 16% of the conservative CDU/CSU voters (marked as “Union”) say yes. Obviously a lot less for left voters.
(Again h/t @mathieugallard.bsky.social)
Has he considered giving the asthma what it demands and see if that fixes things?
ROME (AP) — Vatican says Pope Francis in critical condition, suffered a long asthmatic respiratory crisis in the morning.
February 22, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Has he considered giving the asthma what it demands and see if that fixes things?
Reposted by Will Cubbison וויל קביסון
The main arguments made against intervention in Syria to protect Syrians from Assad in 2013 were:
1 - Regime change will lead to a million dead and a 10 year civil war.
2 - It will lead to a wider global conflict between the west and Iran & Russia.
3 - Assad may be replaced by an Islamist.
1 - Regime change will lead to a million dead and a 10 year civil war.
2 - It will lead to a wider global conflict between the west and Iran & Russia.
3 - Assad may be replaced by an Islamist.
February 20, 2025 at 8:18 AM
The main arguments made against intervention in Syria to protect Syrians from Assad in 2013 were:
1 - Regime change will lead to a million dead and a 10 year civil war.
2 - It will lead to a wider global conflict between the west and Iran & Russia.
3 - Assad may be replaced by an Islamist.
1 - Regime change will lead to a million dead and a 10 year civil war.
2 - It will lead to a wider global conflict between the west and Iran & Russia.
3 - Assad may be replaced by an Islamist.
With reports today that the Bibas family may be coming home in caskets on Thursday I would like to remind everyone that Hamas is directly responsible for every child who has died since the 7th. I will never forgive nor forget people like Mehdi and the other enablers.
February 18, 2025 at 5:49 PM
With reports today that the Bibas family may be coming home in caskets on Thursday I would like to remind everyone that Hamas is directly responsible for every child who has died since the 7th. I will never forgive nor forget people like Mehdi and the other enablers.
People were talking about the threat to democracy from Trump and it turns out almost no one is prepared for it. And the attacks on democracy around the world are still treated as abnormal, but this is where we are
We are three weeks into this presidency, the spending power of Congress has already basically been abolished and now the Vice President is explaining that court orders are optional.
They are absolutely getting ready to defy court orders, and probably soon.
They are absolutely getting ready to defy court orders, and probably soon.
February 9, 2025 at 6:51 PM
People were talking about the threat to democracy from Trump and it turns out almost no one is prepared for it. And the attacks on democracy around the world are still treated as abnormal, but this is where we are
Reposted by Will Cubbison וויל קביסון
The reflexive "it's just anti-Zionism" retort to a poll explicitly asking whether people have "unfavorable views of Jews" gives away the game. For far too many people, "anti-Zionism" isn't a careful intellectual position, it's a get-out-of-prejudice-free card to derail discussion of antisemitism.
Extraordinary watching people do “anti-Zionism isn’t anti-Semitism!” about a poll literally asking people if they dislike Jews
This tracks with everything I've covered for years. It's not in people's heads: America is getting more antisemitic, and that starts with the young. When people focus on antisemitic politicians, they need to grasp that in a democracy, those politicians are downstream from voters.
February 9, 2025 at 4:15 PM
The reflexive "it's just anti-Zionism" retort to a poll explicitly asking whether people have "unfavorable views of Jews" gives away the game. For far too many people, "anti-Zionism" isn't a careful intellectual position, it's a get-out-of-prejudice-free card to derail discussion of antisemitism.
Meanwhile the BBC is worried about Israel "weaponizing" these images, which are war crimes by the way
They murdered their families and held them hostage, starving them.
Institutions like the Red Cross and UNRWA collaborated. I feel sick.
Institutions like the Red Cross and UNRWA collaborated. I feel sick.
February 8, 2025 at 7:28 PM
Meanwhile the BBC is worried about Israel "weaponizing" these images, which are war crimes by the way
Reposted by Will Cubbison וויל קביסון
Explicit antisemitic attitudes are now much more common among young voters - 18 year old registered voters are now ~5x more likely to say that they have an unfavorable view of the Jewish people than 65 year olds.
February 8, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Explicit antisemitic attitudes are now much more common among young voters - 18 year old registered voters are now ~5x more likely to say that they have an unfavorable view of the Jewish people than 65 year olds.
To be clear, he isn't a fringe conspiracy theorist. He is an outright neo-Nazi. A Klan member without a hood. And now a friend of the FBI Director. Should be terrifying.
And its getting a tiny fraction of the coverage that Musk's maybe Nazi salute got.
And its getting a tiny fraction of the coverage that Musk's maybe Nazi salute got.
January 31, 2025 at 12:57 PM
To be clear, he isn't a fringe conspiracy theorist. He is an outright neo-Nazi. A Klan member without a hood. And now a friend of the FBI Director. Should be terrifying.
And its getting a tiny fraction of the coverage that Musk's maybe Nazi salute got.
And its getting a tiny fraction of the coverage that Musk's maybe Nazi salute got.
Reposted by Will Cubbison וויל קביסון
LIVE UPDATES: Family of Agam Berger celebrates her release from Hamas captivity as Red Cross en route to transfer her to IDF in Gaza
www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...
www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...
January 30, 2025 at 8:19 AM
LIVE UPDATES: Family of Agam Berger celebrates her release from Hamas captivity as Red Cross en route to transfer her to IDF in Gaza
www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...
www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...
Reposted by Will Cubbison וויל קביסון
Incumbent parties globally are losing. The claim that if Biden hadn't run Dems would've won isn't well-founded. Harris was still the likely nominee, maybe after attacks. Also, parties with unpopular Presidents running a candidate not close to them (McCain, Stevenson, Bryan) still lost. 1)
Lots of great people served in the Biden administration and did good work.
But Biden and his family landed us in this mess with selfish decisions and deceptive behavior and I’m mad about it.
I want to vote for someone in 2028 who’ll say that.
www.slowboring.com/p/throw-bide...
But Biden and his family landed us in this mess with selfish decisions and deceptive behavior and I’m mad about it.
I want to vote for someone in 2028 who’ll say that.
www.slowboring.com/p/throw-bide...
Throw Biden under the bus
Sleepy Joe landed us in this mess with bad, selfish decisions
www.slowboring.com
January 30, 2025 at 2:59 AM
Incumbent parties globally are losing. The claim that if Biden hadn't run Dems would've won isn't well-founded. Harris was still the likely nominee, maybe after attacks. Also, parties with unpopular Presidents running a candidate not close to them (McCain, Stevenson, Bryan) still lost. 1)
Every day there are some of the most horrific stories that come out as more people get the personal strength to share. Reposting from twitter because the video has good subtitles
x.com/AviMayer/sta...
x.com/AviMayer/sta...
x.com
x.com
January 29, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Every day there are some of the most horrific stories that come out as more people get the personal strength to share. Reposting from twitter because the video has good subtitles
x.com/AviMayer/sta...
x.com/AviMayer/sta...
Even if all atheists were Democrats (they aren't), an explicitly anti-religious candidate wouldn't even win the Democratic primary.
Well past time to stop giving air to people who seem determined to make the McGovern map an every election occurrence
Well past time to stop giving air to people who seem determined to make the McGovern map an every election occurrence
An incredibly hot take that I have is that liberal/progressive leaders invoking Christian language because that is what they truly believe is actually a good thing because letting the conservative right have a monopoly on Christianity is catastrophically stupid
I would sincerely recommend that everyone (especially white folks) who feels the urge to dunk on that Hakeem Jeffries “God is still on the throne” tweet take a moment to stop and consider the role of the Black church in US progressive & resistance movements, and how that context applies here.
January 27, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Even if all atheists were Democrats (they aren't), an explicitly anti-religious candidate wouldn't even win the Democratic primary.
Well past time to stop giving air to people who seem determined to make the McGovern map an every election occurrence
Well past time to stop giving air to people who seem determined to make the McGovern map an every election occurrence
Musk is a Lega but not a Lega Nord voter
It is remarkable that for all the edgelord shit they still talk in these euphemisms. It’s so incredibly cowardly. Also Italy was famously unified in the 19th century after being conquered and reconquered, italian is the opposite of a timeless ethnic identity bsky.app/profile/thes...
Elon Musk: "race mixing is bad. Italy for Italians!"
*woman next to him moves as far away as possible*
*woman next to him moves as far away as possible*
January 27, 2025 at 8:19 AM
Musk is a Lega but not a Lega Nord voter
Feeling a desire to repost this once a week.
Also - there is a great paper showing "experts" are pretty bad at picking which ad will move people
Also - there is a great paper showing "experts" are pretty bad at picking which ad will move people
Always amazing to me how many political scientists/economists who set a high bar for making causal claims in the seminar room nonetheless seem 100% confident that they know what anti-Trump messaging would be most effective based on...introspection?
January 27, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Feeling a desire to repost this once a week.
Also - there is a great paper showing "experts" are pretty bad at picking which ad will move people
Also - there is a great paper showing "experts" are pretty bad at picking which ad will move people
Reposted by Will Cubbison וויל קביסון
We know that Jeremy Corbyn loves talking about Cable Street, but does he actually know his history?
Speaking yesterday he stated that ‘all of them stood for the right to protest’. Excuse me?! No they didn’t - London’s East End communities tried to get the fascist march banned!
Speaking yesterday he stated that ‘all of them stood for the right to protest’. Excuse me?! No they didn’t - London’s East End communities tried to get the fascist march banned!
January 27, 2025 at 7:47 AM
We know that Jeremy Corbyn loves talking about Cable Street, but does he actually know his history?
Speaking yesterday he stated that ‘all of them stood for the right to protest’. Excuse me?! No they didn’t - London’s East End communities tried to get the fascist march banned!
Speaking yesterday he stated that ‘all of them stood for the right to protest’. Excuse me?! No they didn’t - London’s East End communities tried to get the fascist march banned!
Reposted by Will Cubbison וויל קביסון
Mel Gibson is completely right here; Trump being back in power is exactly like the physically violent and emotionally crippled father, who you hate and grow up to hate and disrespect even more, showing back up, beating his family members because of his pathological insecurities.
No notes.
No notes.
Mel Gibson: I’m glad Trump is here. It’s like daddy arrived and he’s taking his belt off
January 26, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Mel Gibson is completely right here; Trump being back in power is exactly like the physically violent and emotionally crippled father, who you hate and grow up to hate and disrespect even more, showing back up, beating his family members because of his pathological insecurities.
No notes.
No notes.
Hahahahahahaha
No. She won't. She hasn't.
No. She won't. She hasn't.
One thing about me is that I will fight Nazis until I’m six feet in the ground.
January 24, 2025 at 6:02 AM
Hahahahahahaha
No. She won't. She hasn't.
No. She won't. She hasn't.
And after a decade of warning most are entirely unprepared.
Americans are getting a crash course on what things look like when autocrats consolidate power and why it’s hard to beat them in the ballot box when every organization controlling speech is aligned with the ruling party.
January 23, 2025 at 12:38 PM
And after a decade of warning most are entirely unprepared.
Reposted by Will Cubbison וויל קביסון
Striking stat from the British Election Study: Labour's vote share fell 18 percentage points among voters who said their sympathies were "much more" with Palestine than Israel, while rising 6 points with everyone else.
January 23, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Striking stat from the British Election Study: Labour's vote share fell 18 percentage points among voters who said their sympathies were "much more" with Palestine than Israel, while rising 6 points with everyone else.
Update, Columbia University is now posting security guards outside of a classroom. Great stuff, not at all a concern
A group of people claiming to be pro-Palestinian broke into classes at Columbia University handing out fliers like this. Video is all over social media, but for some reason my feed here which is mostly academics and was all over Musk's "Nazi salute" have nothing to say about this
January 23, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Update, Columbia University is now posting security guards outside of a classroom. Great stuff, not at all a concern