Vasil Lazarov
@vlazarov.bsky.social
PhD candidate at Royal Holloway University of London | Researching affective polarisation in the UK & Europe | Pollster at Survation
he/him
he/him
I’d love to see gov’t officials try to define the British ‘middle class’ after the enormous struggle to come up with a usable definition for ‘working people’
Could someone explain to me what is meant when a British person refers to "the middle class" ? Like, in the US, as I hear it, it basically just means a person who makes a certain amount of money, not too far below and not wildly above the median. Seems like a complex concept when UK writers use it?
November 11, 2025 at 12:14 AM
I’d love to see gov’t officials try to define the British ‘middle class’ after the enormous struggle to come up with a usable definition for ‘working people’
Next Labour Deputy Leader is likely to be to the right of the party on economic issues.
Based on our estimates with @chanret.bsky.social and @ukandeu.bsky.social
You can play around with it on www.mpsleftright.co.uk
Based on our estimates with @chanret.bsky.social and @ukandeu.bsky.social
You can play around with it on www.mpsleftright.co.uk
September 11, 2025 at 12:53 PM
Next Labour Deputy Leader is likely to be to the right of the party on economic issues.
Based on our estimates with @chanret.bsky.social and @ukandeu.bsky.social
You can play around with it on www.mpsleftright.co.uk
Based on our estimates with @chanret.bsky.social and @ukandeu.bsky.social
You can play around with it on www.mpsleftright.co.uk
Reposted by Vasil Lazarov
Radical right accommodation really does not work.
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
September 5, 2025 at 6:50 AM
Radical right accommodation really does not work.
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
Reposted by Vasil Lazarov
Latest @thehousemag.bsky.social piece - on how to rank MPs, inc one of my fave academic studies, which put Diane Abbott to the right of Giles Radice.
Also includes Rush reference.
Also includes Rush reference.
The Professor Will See You Now: Ranking MPs' politics
Professor Philip Cowley offers a political science lesson for The House’s readers. This week: ranking the politics of MPs
www.politicshome.com
July 8, 2025 at 10:07 AM
Latest @thehousemag.bsky.social piece - on how to rank MPs, inc one of my fave academic studies, which put Diane Abbott to the right of Giles Radice.
Also includes Rush reference.
Also includes Rush reference.
Reposted by Vasil Lazarov
NEW: Our latest poll of full- and part-time workers found only a third think their organisation is ready to take advantage of AI.
However, this jumps to 58% of those in tech, media, or communications.
@chrisrsurvation.bsky.social analyses the results below
Read more: wp.me/p1cU9i-7jF
🧵 1/5
However, this jumps to 58% of those in tech, media, or communications.
@chrisrsurvation.bsky.social analyses the results below
Read more: wp.me/p1cU9i-7jF
🧵 1/5
July 10, 2025 at 9:34 AM
NEW: Our latest poll of full- and part-time workers found only a third think their organisation is ready to take advantage of AI.
However, this jumps to 58% of those in tech, media, or communications.
@chrisrsurvation.bsky.social analyses the results below
Read more: wp.me/p1cU9i-7jF
🧵 1/5
However, this jumps to 58% of those in tech, media, or communications.
@chrisrsurvation.bsky.social analyses the results below
Read more: wp.me/p1cU9i-7jF
🧵 1/5
Reposted by Vasil Lazarov
Labour will certainly be pleased to win this one, but that's a pretty close result; if you run these as uniform swings versus 2021, it only secures a total of 8 Labour constituency MSPs versus 51 for the SNP.
As I've said before, this was must-win for Labour, but margin matters, and it's not huge!
As I've said before, this was must-win for Labour, but margin matters, and it's not huge!
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse (Scottish Parliament) by-election:
Lab: 8539 (31.5%, -2)
SNP: 7957 (29.4%, -16.8)
RUK: 7088 (26.2%, new)
Con: 1621 (6%, -11.5)
Grn: 695 (2.6%, new)
LD: 533 (2%, -0.8)
SSP: 278 (1%, new)
Family: 219 (0.8%, new)
Ind: 109 (0.4%, new)
UKIP: 50 (0.2%, new)
Lab: 8539 (31.5%, -2)
SNP: 7957 (29.4%, -16.8)
RUK: 7088 (26.2%, new)
Con: 1621 (6%, -11.5)
Grn: 695 (2.6%, new)
LD: 533 (2%, -0.8)
SSP: 278 (1%, new)
Family: 219 (0.8%, new)
Ind: 109 (0.4%, new)
UKIP: 50 (0.2%, new)
June 6, 2025 at 12:36 AM
Labour will certainly be pleased to win this one, but that's a pretty close result; if you run these as uniform swings versus 2021, it only secures a total of 8 Labour constituency MSPs versus 51 for the SNP.
As I've said before, this was must-win for Labour, but margin matters, and it's not huge!
As I've said before, this was must-win for Labour, but margin matters, and it's not huge!
Who would make the best prime minister by age groups?
This and more from my colleague @chrisrsurvation.bsky.social below 👇
This and more from my colleague @chrisrsurvation.bsky.social below 👇
Starmer’s lead is notably stronger amongst younger voters, with the PM considered the best candidate for the job by 33% of 18-24 year olds and 49% of 25-34 year olds.
However, Farage takes over pole position amongst 45-54 year olds and those aged over 65.
See more below 👇
However, Farage takes over pole position amongst 45-54 year olds and those aged over 65.
See more below 👇
June 6, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Who would make the best prime minister by age groups?
This and more from my colleague @chrisrsurvation.bsky.social below 👇
This and more from my colleague @chrisrsurvation.bsky.social below 👇
Reposted by Vasil Lazarov
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
RFM 27 (-3)
LAB 24 (-1)
CON 20 (+2)
LD 13 (-)
GRN 8 (+1)
OTH 7 (-)
F/w 30th May - 2nd June 2025. Changes vs 5th May.
🧵1/7
RFM 27 (-3)
LAB 24 (-1)
CON 20 (+2)
LD 13 (-)
GRN 8 (+1)
OTH 7 (-)
F/w 30th May - 2nd June 2025. Changes vs 5th May.
🧵1/7
June 6, 2025 at 4:21 PM
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
RFM 27 (-3)
LAB 24 (-1)
CON 20 (+2)
LD 13 (-)
GRN 8 (+1)
OTH 7 (-)
F/w 30th May - 2nd June 2025. Changes vs 5th May.
🧵1/7
RFM 27 (-3)
LAB 24 (-1)
CON 20 (+2)
LD 13 (-)
GRN 8 (+1)
OTH 7 (-)
F/w 30th May - 2nd June 2025. Changes vs 5th May.
🧵1/7
Reposted by Vasil Lazarov
I’ve never understood the irrational opposition to universal ID in this country so very happy to see this in my inbox today
June 6, 2025 at 10:41 AM
I’ve never understood the irrational opposition to universal ID in this country so very happy to see this in my inbox today
Reposted by Vasil Lazarov
This chart is from @britishelectionstudy.com @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social, me and Ed Fieldhouse. You can see that 2024 Reform voters mainly came from the Conservatives or UKIP in 2015.
This has been a story on the right for *ten years* now, unless something very different happened last week.
This has been a story on the right for *ten years* now, unless something very different happened last week.
May 8, 2025 at 10:47 AM
This chart is from @britishelectionstudy.com @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social, me and Ed Fieldhouse. You can see that 2024 Reform voters mainly came from the Conservatives or UKIP in 2015.
This has been a story on the right for *ten years* now, unless something very different happened last week.
This has been a story on the right for *ten years* now, unless something very different happened last week.
Some reflections on Runcorn
"For the first time ever, a Farage-led party has demonstrated that it can win a parliamentary by-election through the front door, not via defection or protest alone".
Damian Lyons Lowe and Vasil Lazarov of @survation.bsky.social on Reform's Runcorn win:
labourlist.org/2025/05/runc...
Damian Lyons Lowe and Vasil Lazarov of @survation.bsky.social on Reform's Runcorn win:
labourlist.org/2025/05/runc...
'Reform's narrow Runcorn win makes 60-100 Labour seats targets' - LabourList
For Labour, the danger isn’t just losing votes at the margins – it is that Reform has shown it can win outright.
labourlist.org
May 2, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Some reflections on Runcorn
Reposted by Vasil Lazarov
New Senedd polling shows Labour in the lead but with Reform and Plaid close behind.
LAB 27%
REF 24%
PC 24%
CON 15%
LD 5%
GRE 5%
OTH 1%
F/w 10th March - 3rd April.
@jackpeacock1.bsky.social explores the findings here: www.survation.com/senedd-polli...
LAB 27%
REF 24%
PC 24%
CON 15%
LD 5%
GRE 5%
OTH 1%
F/w 10th March - 3rd April.
@jackpeacock1.bsky.social explores the findings here: www.survation.com/senedd-polli...
April 7, 2025 at 1:32 PM
New Senedd polling shows Labour in the lead but with Reform and Plaid close behind.
LAB 27%
REF 24%
PC 24%
CON 15%
LD 5%
GRE 5%
OTH 1%
F/w 10th March - 3rd April.
@jackpeacock1.bsky.social explores the findings here: www.survation.com/senedd-polli...
LAB 27%
REF 24%
PC 24%
CON 15%
LD 5%
GRE 5%
OTH 1%
F/w 10th March - 3rd April.
@jackpeacock1.bsky.social explores the findings here: www.survation.com/senedd-polli...
Reposted by Vasil Lazarov
A big shift in mood among Labour members after the spring statement.
Support for the leadership has dropped sharply, welfare reforms are seen as damaging, and next month's local elections are expected to go very badly.
More below👇
Support for the leadership has dropped sharply, welfare reforms are seen as damaging, and next month's local elections are expected to go very badly.
More below👇
NEW: How did Labour members react to the Spring Statement?
Our latest poll with @labourlist.bsky.social shows:
- Sharp drops in cabinet favourability
- Disapproval of welfare reforms
- Pessimism ahead of May’s elections
@vlazarov.bsky.social breaks down the findings 🧵
Read more: wp.me/p1cU9i-7f0
Our latest poll with @labourlist.bsky.social shows:
- Sharp drops in cabinet favourability
- Disapproval of welfare reforms
- Pessimism ahead of May’s elections
@vlazarov.bsky.social breaks down the findings 🧵
Read more: wp.me/p1cU9i-7f0
Labour Members React to Spring Statement with Pessimism on Policies and Electoral Prospects | Survation
Survation’s second Labour members’ poll in partnership with LabourList conducted immediately following Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement shows sharp declines in leadership favourability, stro...
www.survation.com
April 3, 2025 at 7:58 AM
A big shift in mood among Labour members after the spring statement.
Support for the leadership has dropped sharply, welfare reforms are seen as damaging, and next month's local elections are expected to go very badly.
More below👇
Support for the leadership has dropped sharply, welfare reforms are seen as damaging, and next month's local elections are expected to go very badly.
More below👇
Reposted by Vasil Lazarov
I’m just a girl standing in front of a boy telling him it’s not true he has become more right-wing… it is me who has become more left-wing 🫠
March 24, 2025 at 8:24 PM
I’m just a girl standing in front of a boy telling him it’s not true he has become more right-wing… it is me who has become more left-wing 🫠
Reposted by Vasil Lazarov
I’ve long used FiveThirtyEight’s interactive “Hack Your Way To Scientific Glory” to illustrate the idea of p-hacking when I teach statistics. But ABC/Disney killed the site earlier this month :(
So I made my own with #rstats and Observable and #QuartoPub ! stats.andrewheiss.com/hack-your-way/
So I made my own with #rstats and Observable and #QuartoPub ! stats.andrewheiss.com/hack-your-way/
March 20, 2025 at 6:30 PM
I’ve long used FiveThirtyEight’s interactive “Hack Your Way To Scientific Glory” to illustrate the idea of p-hacking when I teach statistics. But ABC/Disney killed the site earlier this month :(
So I made my own with #rstats and Observable and #QuartoPub ! stats.andrewheiss.com/hack-your-way/
So I made my own with #rstats and Observable and #QuartoPub ! stats.andrewheiss.com/hack-your-way/
We (@survation.bsky.social) have launched an exciting new partnership with @labourlist.bsky.social to provide regular polling of Labour Party members on their views of cabinet, leadership, policies and external threats.
Findings from our first poll below 👇
Findings from our first poll below 👇
NEW: Survation has launched a new polling partnership with @labourlist.bsky.social to track the views of Labour members over time.
Our first poll finds a membership supportive of Cabinet figures, yet divided on the party’s direction, leadership, and external threats.
Read more: wp.me/p1cU9i-7ef
Our first poll finds a membership supportive of Cabinet figures, yet divided on the party’s direction, leadership, and external threats.
Read more: wp.me/p1cU9i-7ef
Labour Members’ Poll: Cabinet Favourites, Directional Doubts, and Reform Fears | Survation
Survation has launched a new polling partnership with LabourList, which will provide regular insights into the views of Labour Party members. This polling series will...
wp.me
March 21, 2025 at 12:11 PM
We (@survation.bsky.social) have launched an exciting new partnership with @labourlist.bsky.social to provide regular polling of Labour Party members on their views of cabinet, leadership, policies and external threats.
Findings from our first poll below 👇
Findings from our first poll below 👇
Highest support we have ever recorded for Reform UK in a Scottish poll, while the SNP maintains an 11-point lead over Labour
NEW: Reform Records Highest Support Ever in a Scottish Poll
Constituency vote share:
SNP: 34% (-1)
Labour: 23% (+1)
Reform UK: 17% (+4)
Conservatives: 12% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 8% (n/c)
Green: 4% (-2)
Alba: 1% (n/c)
Fwk: 6-13 March 2025
(Changes vs January 2025)
Constituency vote share:
SNP: 34% (-1)
Labour: 23% (+1)
Reform UK: 17% (+4)
Conservatives: 12% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 8% (n/c)
Green: 4% (-2)
Alba: 1% (n/c)
Fwk: 6-13 March 2025
(Changes vs January 2025)
March 19, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Highest support we have ever recorded for Reform UK in a Scottish poll, while the SNP maintains an 11-point lead over Labour
Reposted by Vasil Lazarov
A British election factoid I hadn't noticed until I was updating my lecture slides - in 2024 only 15% of constituencies were won by a majority of votes. That is less than half the previous low of 34% recorded in 2010.
March 5, 2025 at 5:11 PM
A British election factoid I hadn't noticed until I was updating my lecture slides - in 2024 only 15% of constituencies were won by a majority of votes. That is less than half the previous low of 34% recorded in 2010.
Reposted by Vasil Lazarov
We are hiring!
Survation is looking for a Trainee Research Executive to join our team. If you are passionate about polling, data analysis, and public opinion research, apply now!
Deadline: 24th March 2024
More details: www.survation.com/survation-is...
Survation is looking for a Trainee Research Executive to join our team. If you are passionate about polling, data analysis, and public opinion research, apply now!
Deadline: 24th March 2024
More details: www.survation.com/survation-is...
Survation is recruiting a Trainee Research Executive | Survation
Job Title: Trainee Research Executive Location: London Salary: £26,250 (initial) Contract Type: Permanent About Survation Survation is a leading market research and political polling...
www.survation.com
February 25, 2025 at 4:41 PM
We are hiring!
Survation is looking for a Trainee Research Executive to join our team. If you are passionate about polling, data analysis, and public opinion research, apply now!
Deadline: 24th March 2024
More details: www.survation.com/survation-is...
Survation is looking for a Trainee Research Executive to join our team. If you are passionate about polling, data analysis, and public opinion research, apply now!
Deadline: 24th March 2024
More details: www.survation.com/survation-is...
Reposted by Vasil Lazarov
Are you an U/G in the social sciences looking for a Masters programme? Have you considered @rhulpir.bsky.social ? You can find a list of our programmes at www.royalholloway.ac.uk/research-and... <- MSc Elections, Campaigns and Democracy w/ Adv. Quant Methods taught by @caprosser.com wd be my pick
Postgraduate taught
Innovative degree programmes with superb teaching and excellent research credentials
www.royalholloway.ac.uk
February 14, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Are you an U/G in the social sciences looking for a Masters programme? Have you considered @rhulpir.bsky.social ? You can find a list of our programmes at www.royalholloway.ac.uk/research-and... <- MSc Elections, Campaigns and Democracy w/ Adv. Quant Methods taught by @caprosser.com wd be my pick
Reposted by Vasil Lazarov
I have a new article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social 🎉
It uses conjoint experiment in the UK to test how important the culture war (statues, LGBT+ representation in pop culture, DEI, transwomen athletes, curriculum diversity, and university free speech) is to voters
Link👇 & results 🧵
It uses conjoint experiment in the UK to test how important the culture war (statues, LGBT+ representation in pop culture, DEI, transwomen athletes, curriculum diversity, and university free speech) is to voters
Link👇 & results 🧵
February 3, 2025 at 10:03 AM
I have a new article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social 🎉
It uses conjoint experiment in the UK to test how important the culture war (statues, LGBT+ representation in pop culture, DEI, transwomen athletes, curriculum diversity, and university free speech) is to voters
Link👇 & results 🧵
It uses conjoint experiment in the UK to test how important the culture war (statues, LGBT+ representation in pop culture, DEI, transwomen athletes, curriculum diversity, and university free speech) is to voters
Link👇 & results 🧵
Reposted by Vasil Lazarov
Fascinating insights fon where MPs stand rom @chanret.bsky.social and Vasil Lazarov ukandeu.ac.uk/placing-mps-...
Placing MPs from left to right - UK in a changing Europe
Chris Hanretty and Vasil Lazarov discuss their recent research estimating the left-right position of UK Members of Parliament, outlining how these estimates...
ukandeu.ac.uk
January 26, 2025 at 9:17 AM
Fascinating insights fon where MPs stand rom @chanret.bsky.social and Vasil Lazarov ukandeu.ac.uk/placing-mps-...