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triforcecap.bsky.social
TriCap
@triforcecap.bsky.social
170 followers 100 following 1.4K posts
Chief Algo Supervisor. Friendly to most.
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fintwitter.bsky.social
META PLATFORMS IS EXPLORING BILLIONS IN SPENDING ON GOOGLE TPUs, INCLUDING FOR ITS OWN DATA CENTERS — THE INFORMATION
November 24, 2025 at 10:47 PM
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roqueig.bsky.social
Good @wsj.com piece on the rarity of today's Trump-Xi phone call ...

"The only instance in recent decades when a Chinese leader initiated contact with an American president was on Sept. 11, 2001, when then-President Jiang Zemin sent a telegram of condolence to then-President George W. Bush... "
China’s Xi Calls Trump in Unusual Move to Discuss Taiwan, Ukraine
The two leaders spoke as Washington, Kyiv and Moscow try to hammer out a plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war.
www.wsj.com
November 24, 2025 at 8:38 PM
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fintwitter.bsky.social
ACA ENROLLMENT DROPPING IN SOME STATE-RUN MARKETPLACES; CALIFORNIA REPORTS A 33% Y/Y DECLINE
November 24, 2025 at 7:21 PM
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mikezaccardi.bsky.social
BofA: Gold has hit a series of record highs and has been overbought, but remains underinvested.

Path to $5,000/oz
November 24, 2025 at 4:01 PM
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rajakorman.bsky.social
But the really important point (even if you think the numbers are too high) is that every problematic issue (childcare, housing, healthcare, higher education) IS A NONTRADEABLE, and yet we are subjected to endless blah-blah about trade as the problem. Below is from Bessent’s WSJ op-ed).
November 24, 2025 at 4:00 PM
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jael.bsky.social
there are now without a doubt house members realizing there really is no King in charge and there’s no circumstance in which the will of the voters could easily be pushed aside

and so of course more resignations are coming

the movie’s done
November 24, 2025 at 3:45 PM
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pauljdavies.bsky.social
Given that Meta has supposedly guaranteed returns for even the equity in the vehicle that owns the data center, then it's hard to see how all of it is not a definite liability of Meta. Unless, owl is being somehow disingenuous with their description.

Excerpt from OWL Q3 earnings call >>
Q - Craig Siegenthaler Hey, good morning, Marc, Alan. Hope everyone's doing well. My question is on the digital infra business. So we've seen these large deals recently, like the $27 billion deal with Meta to develop the Hyperion data center. And I'm sorry, I'm losing my voice a little bit here, but I believe the underlying leases have maturities of about 15 to 20 years. So my question is, under what scenarios can Meta terminate or walk away from the lease earlier than 15 years? And if they do that, what compensation would they owe Blue Owl's funds? And how would that impact the IRR for Blue Owl's LPs on that investment? Thank you. A - Marc Lipschultz Yeah. So the leases, first of all, let's step back. The leases are designed to function for 20-plus years. So just to start to level set to your point, there is a -- it is -- and this is part of the skill and art that both Meta and I think we brought to it. They're designed in a very bespoke way to create elements of flexibility for Meta. Of course, as you know, they're actually -- just yesterday, we were talking about how they're actually rapidly accelerating their spend. So I think this is more about having a flexibility, which I give them full credit for, than having anything that's likely to be used. But just to cut through it all, and I don't want to lose the forest for the trees. If there were an early termination, there is a perfectly mathematical make whole where we make -- the debt makes all its money, we make a spectacular equity return under every circumstance. So it is -- really doesn't, we expect it'll end up being a 20-plus year undertaking, but it actually doesn't matter. If it terminated anywhere along where they have the options to do it, there is a value guarantee on the assets. So we make a great return under any one of those conditions.
November 24, 2025 at 3:50 PM
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peark.es
Dallas Fed Manufacturing comments for November
www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey Chemical manufacturing The business of chemicals is arguably in its worst decline since 2008-09. Computer and electronic product manufacturing Our business activity has increased. We are seeing more activity with urgency from our defense customers, but we are not yet sure how we will manage this if all of the programs become firm orders. Machinery manufacturing Our labor pool is readily accessible. If we were to need to expand, we can find help as necessary. Paper manufacturing The decline in business activity correlates with the government shutdown. Primary metal manufacturing We will reduce hours and do our best to not lay off employees, especially with the holidays approaching. We have a small portion of our workforce that starts out as temporary labor through an outside agency. Those jobs will be cut first. Increased employment is driven by the addition of a new product line. Beverage and tobacco product manufacturing Concerns about the economy, the independence of the Fed and tariffs continue to cause uncertainty. We are not certain that [uncertainty] has actually increased as much as it has remained at an uncomfortably elevated level. Computer and electronic product manufacturing We don't know if it's the shutdown or just that demand has dropped, but our orders have dropped in half. Fabricated metal product manufacturing There is a continued weakness in the retail consumer market. Interest rates and inflation are certainly factors, but there is a general level of uncertainty in the consumer market that is tied to both political and economic uncertainty. Have not been able to initiate work due to a slowdown with our contractor and owner base. We now are hearing that work has been delayed until 2026. Food manufacturing We are shifting volume to higher-priced products that reflect demand for our organic products. This is a consumer shift that we are seeing due to increased demand for minimally processed foods. This is a positive shift for our company. We’re currently facing challenging business conditions on several fronts, including rising raw material costs from national suppliers; supply disruptions and higher prices from international vendors; the loss of a few key distributors that have gone out of business; difficulties in collecting outstanding payments; increased labor costs; and a shortage of qualified candidates. Machinery manufacturing Looking forward to a tax rebate for the month of government shutdown. November was our most profitable month this year. We are seeing increased business activity and many new projects. It seems even the modest decrease in interest rates has assuaged fears of inflation and provided comfort that we are indeed headed in the right direction. Tariff revenue has not dramatically impacted opportunity to grow in our industry, and it has seemingly improved our overall economy. We remain hopeful of continu… Primary metal manufacturing In addition to the double-invoicing issue we reported last month—still ongoing, with importers paying tariffs only on the raw material cost rather than the full value of the finished product—auto, truck and aircraft parts have now been temporarily excluded from Section 232 aluminum and steel tariffs. This has led to a surge in imported components and is contributing to job losses across U.S. aluminum manufacturing. Expecting 3 percent wage increases going into year 2026. New product line is bolstering business outlook. Printing and related support activities We continue to see soft incoming orders, with poor general activity in our industry. It's as if all the chaos in Washington is creating a lot of wait-and-see attitude among our customers' customers. We are very hopeful that things will improve in the next 6 months. Transportation equipment manufacturing Signs indicate business activity is improving, i.e. lowering of interest rate, improving economy and consumer confidence for major purchases. We are seeing commercial vehicle production continue to decline. Many of our original equipment manufacturer (OEM) customers have open production slots in November and December. Business is as delicate today as it was under the previous administration. Small, established businesses have nowhere to turn for help when suddenly paying new tariffs. We purchase raw materials from [Asian nations] and manufacture in the U.S., only to see [those nations’] governments subsidize manufacturing.
November 24, 2025 at 3:37 PM
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peark.es
FDIC QBP just dropped, may post some charts later but some notable headlines

*NET INCOME AT US BANKS ROSE 13.5% IN 3Q, PER FDIC REPORT
*US BANKING INDUSTRY UNREALIZED LOSSES FALL 14.7% SEQUENTIALLY
November 24, 2025 at 3:03 PM
triforcecap.bsky.social
Happening before midterms?
fintwitter.bsky.social FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · 10h
XI TELLS TRUMP RETURN OF TAIWAN TO CHINA AN IMPORTANT PART OF POST-WAR INTERNATIONAL ORDER- XINHUA
November 24, 2025 at 2:56 PM
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jc-econ.bsky.social
Please join us shortly for:

The supply side of inflation: How shocks affect the outlook www.brookings.edu/events/the-s...
The supply side of inflation: How shocks affect the outlook | Brookings
www.brookings.edu
November 24, 2025 at 2:43 PM
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ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social
NATO and Google Cloud Sign Multi-Million Dollar Deal for AI-Enabled Sovereign Cloud
Powering NATO's digital modernization and protecting alliance data with Google Distributed Cloud air-gapped BRUSSELS and SUNNYVALE, Calif., Nov. 24, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Google Cloud today...
www.googlecloudpresscorner.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:56 PM
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timmarchman.bsky.social
While you do not want the WSJ generally writing that about you, you specifically do not want Jonathan Weil writing that about you.
Jonathan started with the Journal in 1997 as a reporter for its Texas regional edition and moved to New York in 2000, where he covered the accounting beat for five years. Jonathan has been credited by Columbia Journalism Review, Barron’s and the New Yorker magazine, among others, as the first reporter to challenge Enron’s accounting practices during the dot-com bubble for his Sept. 20, 2000, article “Energy Traders Cite Gains, But Some Math Is Missing.”
November 24, 2025 at 1:27 PM
triforcecap.bsky.social
Oh I love this one. Governor Waller has an anecdata stream that forecasts employment expansion.
fintwitter.bsky.social FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · 12h
Fed's Waller: There is no anecdotal evidence that firms are about to go on a hiring spree.
November 24, 2025 at 1:31 PM
triforcecap.bsky.social
‘As a result, private credit now accounts for about 35 percent of the investment portfolios of North American insurance companies, according to the new IMF report.’
November 24, 2025 at 1:19 PM
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ohnohedidnt24.bsky.social
Oh yeah
November 24, 2025 at 2:00 AM
triforcecap.bsky.social
If you exclude the sectors that added jobs…we lost jobs.
fintwitter.bsky.social FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · 1d
US JOB MARKET WEAKENING BENEATH THE SURFACE: PRIVATE PAYROLLS (EX-LEISURE, HOSPITALITY, EDUCATION, HEALTHCARE) FELL BY 9K IN SEPTEMBER
November 24, 2025 at 4:11 AM
triforcecap.bsky.social
“Nahh, it’s what everyone knows for sure that suddenly becomes important that gets you.”

-Mark Twain’s Friend
November 23, 2025 at 11:01 PM
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rajakorman.bsky.social
It’s not going to find many adherents in the US, though there will certainly be some (more GOPs than Dems I suspect), but one way to think about a possible intersection of interests between US and RoW is framing a shared agenda to Make America Dispensable Again. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Carney Says World Can Move on Without The US, Stresses New Ties
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the world can make progress on a range of issues without the US, and that consensus reached at a Group of 20 leaders’ meeting in Johannesburg this weekend carr...
www.bloomberg.com
November 23, 2025 at 10:22 PM
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carlquintanilla.bsky.social
#Charlotte

@nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/22/u...
November 23, 2025 at 10:10 PM
triforcecap.bsky.social
Would a lower cost of capital help? Cause that’s all that’s on offer in DC.
texasobserver.org Texas Observer @texasobserver.org · 1d
Enrollment by international students from China dropped by 3 percent, from India by 4 percent, and enrollment from students from Mexico has flatlined. Here are the likely consequences for Texas' education and economy:
The High Cost of Targeting International Students in Texas
The Trump administration’s bans and airport detentions are derailing the academic dreams of students who carry out important research—and sometimes pay hefty tuition—to attend Texas institutions.
www.texasobserver.org
November 23, 2025 at 7:45 PM
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sadbusdriver.bsky.social
I think this is mostly San Francisco finally shrugging off the pandemic, but it is *really* funny that rent prices in San Francisco shot up *immediately* after the city banned RealPage and other algorithmic price setting software.

My pre trends are incredible!
November 22, 2025 at 5:29 PM
triforcecap.bsky.social
These dicta step downs in total employment mean a financialized economy’s FFR should be lower?

Pretending it can protect the economy from the fiscal policy of a confederate congress/president can destroy this Fed. The best time to get real was April; now is second best.
crampell.bsky.social Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 5d
Over 700,000 TPS recipients lose legal status by the end of 2025, including 550,000 who are legally working. TPS recipients contribute over $36B in annual GDP. Withdrawing their work authorization could add to labor shortages in construction, cleaning, and hospitality, especially in FL, TX, NY
550,000 Workers Lose Status by End of 2025: Potential Impact by State and Industry — Penn Wharton Budget Model
Over 700,000 Temporary Protected Status (TPS) recipients lose legal status by the end of 2025, including 550,000 who are legally working. We estimate that TPS recipients contribute over $36 billion in...
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
November 23, 2025 at 6:34 PM
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coloradotravis.bsky.social
The Socratic agony of reading something so offensively wrong you start reorganizing your day around arguing against it.
November 23, 2025 at 4:45 PM
triforcecap.bsky.social
Commercialization of disinformation should be illegal, regardless of what country it originates from.
tradersclub.bsky.social 🚨 Live Stock Market News @tradersclub.bsky.social · 1d
The Fed should hike rates 50 basis points in December. Inflation has been running at over 2x their target level (2%) for 5+ years now. The stock market and home prices are at record highs. Stop pursuing policies that will only create more inflation and worsen affordability.
November 23, 2025 at 4:36 PM