John
@roqueig.bsky.social
Brewery Enthusiast. Stetson Collector. Hedge Fund Manager. Philly Sports Optimist…
Pinned
John
@roqueig.bsky.social
· Oct 6
it will be interesting to see how much pressure if applied on OpenAI if their capabilities, revenue, and platform base continue to grow. The incentive for OpenAI to succeed aligns with NVDA, AMD, and AVGO as much as it doesn't align with the hyperscalers (despite one of them owning 49% of OpenAI)
I really think this is something to monitor moving fwd - it's becoming increasingly worse for the large tech companies the way that OpenAI is growing / financing deals. The hyperscalers would be better off in a world where OpenAI cannot unlock funding / scale compute to meet revenue growth
This seems to be gaining more traction …
Rieder would be very interesting here btw
January 18, 2026 at 5:46 PM
This seems to be gaining more traction …
Great write up by Alex, incredible few days of drama at Thinking Machines …
As I first reported earlier today, more Thinking Machines employees are in talks to join the 3 founding members who just rejoined OpenAI
Sources say TM lacks a clear product/business strategy and has been struggling to raise a new round of financing sources.news/p/thinking-m...
Sources say TM lacks a clear product/business strategy and has been struggling to raise a new round of financing sources.news/p/thinking-m...
Thinking Machines is nothing without its people
More Thinking Machines employees are in talks to join OpenAI. Also: Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe on ACCESS and the Sources Live @ Davos lineup.
sources.news
January 16, 2026 at 12:22 AM
Great write up by Alex, incredible few days of drama at Thinking Machines …
Reposted by John
January 15, 2026 at 10:13 PM
tested and through
MSFT continues to test the 2024 summer high which coincidentally was also a FWD PE high prior to the big Azure reacceleration we saw in the first half of 2025 ...
January 15, 2026 at 8:44 PM
tested and through
Restaurants and fast casual looking strong today (again) - #$SBUX and #$TXRH specifically outperforming.
#$SBUX retesting the mid-90s for the first time since last summer. Important Investor Day coming up there for Brian Niccol as a turnaround in comp sales is clearly being priced in
#$SBUX retesting the mid-90s for the first time since last summer. Important Investor Day coming up there for Brian Niccol as a turnaround in comp sales is clearly being priced in
January 15, 2026 at 8:42 PM
Of note, during the GS call this morning, Solomon flagged that IPO activity, which still remains well below averages, should jump this year. Few comments from him:
"...a lot of big, big companies in the pipe..."
"...a bunch of IPOs, this year and next year, of very, very large companies..."
"...a lot of big, big companies in the pipe..."
"...a bunch of IPOs, this year and next year, of very, very large companies..."
January 15, 2026 at 5:23 PM
Of note, during the GS call this morning, Solomon flagged that IPO activity, which still remains well below averages, should jump this year. Few comments from him:
"...a lot of big, big companies in the pipe..."
"...a bunch of IPOs, this year and next year, of very, very large companies..."
"...a lot of big, big companies in the pipe..."
"...a bunch of IPOs, this year and next year, of very, very large companies..."
Hyperscalers underperforming today
TSMC's big Capex beat flags that sustained spending will come from the group
Hyperscalers -> Semis -> TSMC
I expect cloud growth acceleration to continue and be a key highlight of earnings calls later this month
TSMC's big Capex beat flags that sustained spending will come from the group
Hyperscalers -> Semis -> TSMC
I expect cloud growth acceleration to continue and be a key highlight of earnings calls later this month
January 15, 2026 at 2:52 PM
Hyperscalers underperforming today
TSMC's big Capex beat flags that sustained spending will come from the group
Hyperscalers -> Semis -> TSMC
I expect cloud growth acceleration to continue and be a key highlight of earnings calls later this month
TSMC's big Capex beat flags that sustained spending will come from the group
Hyperscalers -> Semis -> TSMC
I expect cloud growth acceleration to continue and be a key highlight of earnings calls later this month
Goolsbee now back to sounding more dovish, hinting at multiple cuts to come this year assuming the current inflation trajectory remains - again, interesting that he was the one to dissent
Based on this morning's interview with @steveliesman.bsky.social I feel like my thought from Wednesday is likely true. Goolsbee put his name behind the dissent despite being one of the more dovish people on the Fed. Really interesting situation and intriguing that he was the one to dissent
Very interesting seeing Goolsbee being the one to put his name next to Schmid with a dissent
January 15, 2026 at 1:42 PM
Goolsbee now back to sounding more dovish, hinting at multiple cuts to come this year assuming the current inflation trajectory remains - again, interesting that he was the one to dissent
GS raising quarterly dividend again ...
Went from $3 per share (announced in the July release) to $4 and now to $4.50 (announced today)
50% raise in ~6 months
Went from $3 per share (announced in the July release) to $4 and now to $4.50 (announced today)
50% raise in ~6 months
January 15, 2026 at 1:09 PM
GS raising quarterly dividend again ...
Went from $3 per share (announced in the July release) to $4 and now to $4.50 (announced today)
50% raise in ~6 months
Went from $3 per share (announced in the July release) to $4 and now to $4.50 (announced today)
50% raise in ~6 months
Very interesting to watch the continued rerating from a multiple perspective of the large cap techs ... META trading under 20x F27 earnings is
January 14, 2026 at 9:05 PM
Very interesting to watch the continued rerating from a multiple perspective of the large cap techs ... META trading under 20x F27 earnings is
Interesting recovery in the credit card exposed names (especially SYF and COF) over the last 45 minutes
January 14, 2026 at 5:45 PM
Interesting recovery in the credit card exposed names (especially SYF and COF) over the last 45 minutes
Reposted by John
Current Mag 7+ drawdowns from 52wk highs @finviz_com :
$NVDA -14%
$GOOGL -2%
$MSFT -16%
$AAPL -10%
$AMZN -8%
$META -22%
$TSLA -12%
$AVGO -18%
$ORCL -44%
$NFLX -34%
$AMD -16%
$PLTR -15%
$CRM -35%
$NVDA -14%
$GOOGL -2%
$MSFT -16%
$AAPL -10%
$AMZN -8%
$META -22%
$TSLA -12%
$AVGO -18%
$ORCL -44%
$NFLX -34%
$AMD -16%
$PLTR -15%
$CRM -35%
January 14, 2026 at 3:40 PM
Current Mag 7+ drawdowns from 52wk highs @finviz_com :
$NVDA -14%
$GOOGL -2%
$MSFT -16%
$AAPL -10%
$AMZN -8%
$META -22%
$TSLA -12%
$AVGO -18%
$ORCL -44%
$NFLX -34%
$AMD -16%
$PLTR -15%
$CRM -35%
$NVDA -14%
$GOOGL -2%
$MSFT -16%
$AAPL -10%
$AMZN -8%
$META -22%
$TSLA -12%
$AVGO -18%
$ORCL -44%
$NFLX -34%
$AMD -16%
$PLTR -15%
$CRM -35%
Interesting to see the market rally back a bit after no SCOTUS decision today ... Q's bottomed right at 10am
January 14, 2026 at 3:16 PM
Interesting to see the market rally back a bit after no SCOTUS decision today ... Q's bottomed right at 10am
Reposted by John
I like to think that me going and getting new tires at COST a few weeks back put to the bottom into the stock
up 9%+ to the start the year
up 9%+ to the start the year
January 12, 2026 at 7:55 PM
I like to think that me going and getting new tires at COST a few weeks back put to the bottom into the stock
up 9%+ to the start the year
up 9%+ to the start the year
FWIW, this is likely what a Rubio 2028 campaign will point to as his successes, while he can still deflect on his involvement in conflicts in Europe / Asia - this is also what Rubio wanted to do from the beginning
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
U.S. Blows Up China’s Latin America Ambitions With Maduro Ouster
Beijing is recalculating its policy of making inroads in Washington’s backyard after its top ally there was deposed
www.wsj.com
January 14, 2026 at 1:17 PM
FWIW, this is likely what a Rubio 2028 campaign will point to as his successes, while he can still deflect on his involvement in conflicts in Europe / Asia - this is also what Rubio wanted to do from the beginning
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
Software getting absolutely hammered today -
CRM, ADBE, SNOW all down ~4-6%
CRM, ADBE, SNOW all down ~4-6%
January 13, 2026 at 6:00 PM
Software getting absolutely hammered today -
CRM, ADBE, SNOW all down ~4-6%
CRM, ADBE, SNOW all down ~4-6%
New DeepSeek paper beginning to make the rounds - their "Engram" paper suggests disaggregated memory is the future - a potential hit to the HBM companies
NVDA’s ’25 bets (Enfabrica, Groq, Rubin CPX) seemed to be built for this shift. Something to monitor as the paper becomes more mainstream
NVDA’s ’25 bets (Enfabrica, Groq, Rubin CPX) seemed to be built for this shift. Something to monitor as the paper becomes more mainstream
January 13, 2026 at 5:25 PM
New DeepSeek paper beginning to make the rounds - their "Engram" paper suggests disaggregated memory is the future - a potential hit to the HBM companies
NVDA’s ’25 bets (Enfabrica, Groq, Rubin CPX) seemed to be built for this shift. Something to monitor as the paper becomes more mainstream
NVDA’s ’25 bets (Enfabrica, Groq, Rubin CPX) seemed to be built for this shift. Something to monitor as the paper becomes more mainstream
Sticking with the megas, I am also surprised META has been weak on what you would think are two positive headlines .. 1) reduction in workforce (and ultimately expenses) tied to Metaverse / reality labs and 2) potential necessity to double capacity in its wearables business unit
January 13, 2026 at 3:35 PM
Sticking with the megas, I am also surprised META has been weak on what you would think are two positive headlines .. 1) reduction in workforce (and ultimately expenses) tied to Metaverse / reality labs and 2) potential necessity to double capacity in its wearables business unit
MSFT continues to test the 2024 summer high which coincidentally was also a FWD PE high prior to the big Azure reacceleration we saw in the first half of 2025 ...
January 13, 2026 at 3:31 PM
MSFT continues to test the 2024 summer high which coincidentally was also a FWD PE high prior to the big Azure reacceleration we saw in the first half of 2025 ...
despite a dovish CPI print, equities continue to remain somewhat heavy
Keep in mind Q's have still not retested the high from October with many of the leaders (AAPL, AVGO, NVDA, META, MSFT) still off 10% from the highs
Keep in mind Q's have still not retested the high from October with many of the leaders (AAPL, AVGO, NVDA, META, MSFT) still off 10% from the highs
January 13, 2026 at 3:10 PM
despite a dovish CPI print, equities continue to remain somewhat heavy
Keep in mind Q's have still not retested the high from October with many of the leaders (AAPL, AVGO, NVDA, META, MSFT) still off 10% from the highs
Keep in mind Q's have still not retested the high from October with many of the leaders (AAPL, AVGO, NVDA, META, MSFT) still off 10% from the highs
Enterprise push at Anthropic continues, this time not focused on coders though ...
Introducing Cowork | Claude | Claude
Claude Code's agentic capabilities, now for everyone. Give Claude access to your files and let it organize, create, and edit documents while you focus on what matters.
claude.com
January 12, 2026 at 9:04 PM
Enterprise push at Anthropic continues, this time not focused on coders though ...