Stephan Poppe
@stephanpoppe.bsky.social
Moved emotionally by Statistics - 24 HRs. Statistical Services:
Lecturer of Statistics @UniLeipzig, Crowd Counter, Former Theoretical Physicist
Lecturer of Statistics @UniLeipzig, Crowd Counter, Former Theoretical Physicist
Reposted by Stephan Poppe
I kind of want to go
April 4, 2025 at 9:42 PM
I kind of want to go
Reposted by Stephan Poppe
Sonntagsfrage zur Bundestagswahl • INSA/BamS: CDU/CSU 24 % | AfD 24 % | SPD 16 % | GRÜNE 11 % | DIE LINKE 11 % | BSW 4 % | FDP 4 % | Sonstige 6 %
➤ Übersicht: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ins...
➤ Übersicht: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ins...
April 5, 2025 at 7:18 AM
Sonntagsfrage zur Bundestagswahl • INSA/BamS: CDU/CSU 24 % | AfD 24 % | SPD 16 % | GRÜNE 11 % | DIE LINKE 11 % | BSW 4 % | FDP 4 % | Sonstige 6 %
➤ Übersicht: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ins...
➤ Übersicht: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ins...
Während Elon Musk seine Reichweite gezielt nutzt, um vieles im Sinne einer möglichen Regierung Trump II zu befördern, verliert er auffällig kein Wort zur Zollpolitik. Manchmal sagen die Dinge, die nicht ausgesprochen werden, mehr als jene, die laut verkündet werden.
April 4, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Während Elon Musk seine Reichweite gezielt nutzt, um vieles im Sinne einer möglichen Regierung Trump II zu befördern, verliert er auffällig kein Wort zur Zollpolitik. Manchmal sagen die Dinge, die nicht ausgesprochen werden, mehr als jene, die laut verkündet werden.
The bitter Irony: While the subjective Bayesian proudly proclaims in public that all probability is purely epistemic, they nonetheless must secretly entertain an ontological notion of randomness when running their Monte Carlo simulations in Stan to make the thing operational.
March 25, 2025 at 9:58 PM
The bitter Irony: While the subjective Bayesian proudly proclaims in public that all probability is purely epistemic, they nonetheless must secretly entertain an ontological notion of randomness when running their Monte Carlo simulations in Stan to make the thing operational.
Reposted by Stephan Poppe
Der Schaden durch Cum-Ex- und Cum-Cum-Geschäfte beträgt etwa 40000 Millionen Euro.
Bei Cum-Cum-Geschäften hat der Staat bisher nur etwa 200 Millionen Euro zurückgefordert, nicht einmal 1 Prozent.
www.zdf.de/nachrichten/...
Bei Cum-Cum-Geschäften hat der Staat bisher nur etwa 200 Millionen Euro zurückgefordert, nicht einmal 1 Prozent.
www.zdf.de/nachrichten/...
Cum-Ex-Skandal: Versagt der Staat beim Zurückholen der Milliarden?
Rund 40 Milliarden sind dem Staat durch die Cum-Ex- und Cum-Cum-Geschäfte entgangen. Wieso Aufarbeitung und Ermittlungen so schleppend verlaufen.
www.zdf.de
March 23, 2025 at 10:23 PM
Der Schaden durch Cum-Ex- und Cum-Cum-Geschäfte beträgt etwa 40000 Millionen Euro.
Bei Cum-Cum-Geschäften hat der Staat bisher nur etwa 200 Millionen Euro zurückgefordert, nicht einmal 1 Prozent.
www.zdf.de/nachrichten/...
Bei Cum-Cum-Geschäften hat der Staat bisher nur etwa 200 Millionen Euro zurückgefordert, nicht einmal 1 Prozent.
www.zdf.de/nachrichten/...
Reposted by Stephan Poppe
We offer a 3-year postdoc to join our LeipzigLab on climate discourses 🌍🔍
We bridge #NLP, social science, and environmental research to explore how climate change, public discourse & political action interact. t1p.de/wfzrv Together with: @marckeuschnigg.bsky.social @mdebrito.bsky.social
We bridge #NLP, social science, and environmental research to explore how climate change, public discourse & political action interact. t1p.de/wfzrv Together with: @marckeuschnigg.bsky.social @mdebrito.bsky.social
March 20, 2025 at 2:27 PM
We offer a 3-year postdoc to join our LeipzigLab on climate discourses 🌍🔍
We bridge #NLP, social science, and environmental research to explore how climate change, public discourse & political action interact. t1p.de/wfzrv Together with: @marckeuschnigg.bsky.social @mdebrito.bsky.social
We bridge #NLP, social science, and environmental research to explore how climate change, public discourse & political action interact. t1p.de/wfzrv Together with: @marckeuschnigg.bsky.social @mdebrito.bsky.social
Reposted by Stephan Poppe
Here's a piece I wrote for @aeon.co!
You, like all animals, are designed for action. Your perspective on reality is fundamentally that of an active participant–– it's a 'POINT OF DO'.
As a *human* animal, your general, shared-across-species causal understanding of
1/
You, like all animals, are designed for action. Your perspective on reality is fundamentally that of an active participant–– it's a 'POINT OF DO'.
As a *human* animal, your general, shared-across-species causal understanding of
1/
No other animal thinks about cause-and-effect in the hyper-objective, hyper-general way that we do, and this is a superpower @marielgoddu.bsky.social
Causal understanding is not a point of view, it’s a point of do | Aeon Essays
Humans have a superpower that makes us uniquely capable of controlling the world: our ability to understand cause and effect
aeon.co
March 21, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Here's a piece I wrote for @aeon.co!
You, like all animals, are designed for action. Your perspective on reality is fundamentally that of an active participant–– it's a 'POINT OF DO'.
As a *human* animal, your general, shared-across-species causal understanding of
1/
You, like all animals, are designed for action. Your perspective on reality is fundamentally that of an active participant–– it's a 'POINT OF DO'.
As a *human* animal, your general, shared-across-species causal understanding of
1/
Reposted by Stephan Poppe
Hiring again! Lecturer in Sociology. We're looking for someone strongly anchored in sociology through high-profile contributions, and with the ability to appeal to students and colleagues of various methodological orientations.
www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...
www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...
UCL – University College London
UCL is consistently ranked as one of the top ten universities in the world (QS World University Rankings 2010-2022) and is No.2 in the UK for research power (Research Excellence Framework 2021).
www.ucl.ac.uk
March 21, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Hiring again! Lecturer in Sociology. We're looking for someone strongly anchored in sociology through high-profile contributions, and with the ability to appeal to students and colleagues of various methodological orientations.
www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...
www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...
Reposted by Stephan Poppe
New blog post! In which I explain the issue with mediation analysis and sketch out one way to deal with the underlying causal inference problem -- in just a bit over 1,000 words!
If you have never found the time to read up on this, now is your chance.
www.the100.ci/2025/03/20/r...
If you have never found the time to read up on this, now is your chance.
www.the100.ci/2025/03/20/r...
Reviewer notes: That’s a very nice mediation analysis you have there. It would be a shame if something happened to it.
Mediation analysis has gotten a lot of flak, including classic titles such as “Yes, but what’s the mechanism? (Don’t expect an easy answer)” (Bullock et al., 2010), “What mediation analysis can (not) ...
www.the100.ci
March 20, 2025 at 1:40 PM
New blog post! In which I explain the issue with mediation analysis and sketch out one way to deal with the underlying causal inference problem -- in just a bit over 1,000 words!
If you have never found the time to read up on this, now is your chance.
www.the100.ci/2025/03/20/r...
If you have never found the time to read up on this, now is your chance.
www.the100.ci/2025/03/20/r...
Reposted by Stephan Poppe
Want to make nice graphs with me, starting this summer? I am hiring for two PhD positions at the University of Witten/Herdecke.
March 18, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Want to make nice graphs with me, starting this summer? I am hiring for two PhD positions at the University of Witten/Herdecke.
Starke These: das war kein politisches Treffen in Washington, sondern eine knallharte Geschäftsverhandlung um den mineral dea Zelensky hat auf unbedingte Sicherheitsgarantien abgezielt, etwas was Trump als Geschäftsmann so nicht macht, weil er eben kein Politiker ist.
bbc.com/news/articles/…
bbc.com/news/articles/…
https://bbc.com/news/articles/…
February 28, 2025 at 10:38 PM
Starke These: das war kein politisches Treffen in Washington, sondern eine knallharte Geschäftsverhandlung um den mineral dea Zelensky hat auf unbedingte Sicherheitsgarantien abgezielt, etwas was Trump als Geschäftsmann so nicht macht, weil er eben kein Politiker ist.
bbc.com/news/articles/…
bbc.com/news/articles/…
Reposted by Stephan Poppe
As expected, the APC talk for the sociologists was a lot of fun! In case you're curious, you can find the slides here: osf.io/mvqkx
January 16, 2025 at 1:54 PM
As expected, the APC talk for the sociologists was a lot of fun! In case you're curious, you can find the slides here: osf.io/mvqkx
I recently stumbled across the field of socio-hydrology.
It may provide some useful causal explanatory models and ideas for better policymaking, particularly in understanding the PROCESS behind disastrous EVENTS like the Californian wildfires in urban settings.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socio-h...
It may provide some useful causal explanatory models and ideas for better policymaking, particularly in understanding the PROCESS behind disastrous EVENTS like the Californian wildfires in urban settings.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socio-h...
January 13, 2025 at 1:10 PM
I recently stumbled across the field of socio-hydrology.
It may provide some useful causal explanatory models and ideas for better policymaking, particularly in understanding the PROCESS behind disastrous EVENTS like the Californian wildfires in urban settings.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socio-h...
It may provide some useful causal explanatory models and ideas for better policymaking, particularly in understanding the PROCESS behind disastrous EVENTS like the Californian wildfires in urban settings.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socio-h...
Spartipp für Weihnachten: deutsche Dubai-Schokolade
December 19, 2024 at 7:40 PM
Spartipp für Weihnachten: deutsche Dubai-Schokolade
Reposted by Stephan Poppe
R on Mac M1 showing strange behavior when sampling binary data!
Tried to demonstrate the distribution of means from repeated 10-trial samples of an equally distributed binary variable. Expected a normal distribution around 0.5, but got right-skewed results instead. 🤨 #RStats
Tried to demonstrate the distribution of means from repeated 10-trial samples of an equally distributed binary variable. Expected a normal distribution around 0.5, but got right-skewed results instead. 🤨 #RStats
December 6, 2024 at 5:17 PM
R on Mac M1 showing strange behavior when sampling binary data!
Tried to demonstrate the distribution of means from repeated 10-trial samples of an equally distributed binary variable. Expected a normal distribution around 0.5, but got right-skewed results instead. 🤨 #RStats
Tried to demonstrate the distribution of means from repeated 10-trial samples of an equally distributed binary variable. Expected a normal distribution around 0.5, but got right-skewed results instead. 🤨 #RStats
Reposted by Stephan Poppe
Myth 1: Re-iterating this point over and over again improves psychologists' understanding of statistics in a practically relevant manner.
December 3, 2024 at 8:12 AM
Myth 1: Re-iterating this point over and over again improves psychologists' understanding of statistics in a practically relevant manner.
Nach dem Ampel-Aus: Dr. Angela Merkel zurückholen als Expertin für Zerfallsprozesse nach Bindungsbruch?
December 3, 2024 at 4:55 PM
Nach dem Ampel-Aus: Dr. Angela Merkel zurückholen als Expertin für Zerfallsprozesse nach Bindungsbruch?
Reposted by Stephan Poppe
Germany has fallen.
November 26, 2024 at 12:58 PM
Germany has fallen.
Invertierte y-Achse, damit etwas sprichwörtlich abstürzt – sieht man auch nicht alle Tage.
November 27, 2024 at 4:09 PM
Invertierte y-Achse, damit etwas sprichwörtlich abstürzt – sieht man auch nicht alle Tage.
Ein reges Kommen und Gehen in der @stadtleipzig.bsky.social:
Die Statistik zeigt schön, wie Studium und Ausbildung die jungen Alterskohorten der Stadt prägen.
Die Statistik zeigt schön, wie Studium und Ausbildung die jungen Alterskohorten der Stadt prägen.
November 22, 2024 at 4:04 PM
Ein reges Kommen und Gehen in der @stadtleipzig.bsky.social:
Die Statistik zeigt schön, wie Studium und Ausbildung die jungen Alterskohorten der Stadt prägen.
Die Statistik zeigt schön, wie Studium und Ausbildung die jungen Alterskohorten der Stadt prägen.
Reposted by Stephan Poppe
New stroop task just dropped
Another one that I show to demonstrate the perils of improper color usage.
November 20, 2024 at 3:49 PM
New stroop task just dropped
Reposted by Stephan Poppe
NEW RESEARCH 🙉 Spreading of misinformation: People don’t pretend, they *sincerely believe in fake news*
doi.org/10.1093/pnas...
The misinformation policy challenge is less about inducing good behavior but one of correcting false beliefs
doi.org/10.1093/pnas...
The misinformation policy challenge is less about inducing good behavior but one of correcting false beliefs
doi.org
November 19, 2024 at 4:06 PM
NEW RESEARCH 🙉 Spreading of misinformation: People don’t pretend, they *sincerely believe in fake news*
doi.org/10.1093/pnas...
The misinformation policy challenge is less about inducing good behavior but one of correcting false beliefs
doi.org/10.1093/pnas...
The misinformation policy challenge is less about inducing good behavior but one of correcting false beliefs
Reposted by Stephan Poppe
Theorist bridge trolls barking at you to formally connect theory to data? Wondering how, without troll magic? We can help! "Bridging theory and data: A computational workflow for cultural evolution" With @dominikdeffner.bsky.social @natyfedorova.bsky.social Jeff Andrews. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
November 19, 2024 at 7:59 AM
Theorist bridge trolls barking at you to formally connect theory to data? Wondering how, without troll magic? We can help! "Bridging theory and data: A computational workflow for cultural evolution" With @dominikdeffner.bsky.social @natyfedorova.bsky.social Jeff Andrews. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Reposted by Stephan Poppe
🧵 New paper uses AI to map global production networks & study recent shifts in global trade: "AI-Generated Production Networks" by @trfetzer.com @econopete.bsky.social @prashantgarg.bsky.social and Bennet Feld.
November 18, 2024 at 4:22 PM
🧵 New paper uses AI to map global production networks & study recent shifts in global trade: "AI-Generated Production Networks" by @trfetzer.com @econopete.bsky.social @prashantgarg.bsky.social and Bennet Feld.
Reposted by Stephan Poppe
Wir haben im #linksdrehenden ne Sondersendung zum Thema #Wahlumfragen gemacht, wie kommen sie zustande, was sind sie & was auch nicht, wie sollte der*die Rezipientin damit umgehen. Mit den Zahlen- & Statistik-Königen @stephanpoppe.bsky.social & Tilman Loos
www.linksdrehendes.de/2024/01/ldr4...
www.linksdrehendes.de/2024/01/ldr4...
January 23, 2024 at 8:43 PM
Wir haben im #linksdrehenden ne Sondersendung zum Thema #Wahlumfragen gemacht, wie kommen sie zustande, was sind sie & was auch nicht, wie sollte der*die Rezipientin damit umgehen. Mit den Zahlen- & Statistik-Königen @stephanpoppe.bsky.social & Tilman Loos
www.linksdrehendes.de/2024/01/ldr4...
www.linksdrehendes.de/2024/01/ldr4...