Stephan Poppe
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stephanpoppe.bsky.social
Stephan Poppe
@stephanpoppe.bsky.social
Moved emotionally by Statistics - 24 HRs. Statistical Services:

Lecturer of Statistics @UniLeipzig, Crowd Counter, Former Theoretical Physicist
March 21, 2025 at 11:48 PM
Do not use any packages. For sensitive data, you must control every step of the simulation to guarantee confidentiality for the data givers in order to agree on synthesizing data.
March 21, 2025 at 11:34 PM
Draw a DAG, not necessarily causal, just capturing the essential conditional independencies.

Fit a Bayesian Network (e.g., random forest for each CPD).

Add slight random noise to the marginals of the exogenous variables, if some categories are too sparse.

Sample from that Bayesian Network.
March 21, 2025 at 11:25 PM
Zur Einordnung: auch Politik ist damit beschäftigt Ressourcen zu organisieren und allokisieren, um Ziele zu erreichen. Was Politik universeller und wichtiger macht, sind sowohl der Begriff was überhaupt die Ressourcen und die Ziele sind. Die Regierung Trump verengt all das zur Logik einer USA Inc.
February 28, 2025 at 10:39 PM
I concur. A single realized confidence interval has no true meaning at all - only the reference class of all such intervals does: 5% are wrong, but you can’t tell which.

As John Wanamaker put it: "Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; I just don’t know which half."
December 3, 2024 at 8:23 PM