Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
Emeritus Professor of Economics, Oxford University.
New post: Labour’s Brexit stance is as untenable as their tax pledge
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/labo...
As public perception and econometric estimates of the damage caused by Brexit rise, Labour's refusal to discuss rejoining the EU's customs union or single market means more self harm.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/labo...
As public perception and econometric estimates of the damage caused by Brexit rise, Labour's refusal to discuss rejoining the EU's customs union or single market means more self harm.
Labour’s Brexit stance is as untenable as their tax pledge
In my last post about the prospect of Labour breaking its tax pledge, I did something I don’t often do, which is indulge in some ‘I told y...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 11, 2025 at 9:07 AM
New post: Labour’s Brexit stance is as untenable as their tax pledge
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/labo...
As public perception and econometric estimates of the damage caused by Brexit rise, Labour's refusal to discuss rejoining the EU's customs union or single market means more self harm.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/labo...
As public perception and econometric estimates of the damage caused by Brexit rise, Labour's refusal to discuss rejoining the EU's customs union or single market means more self harm.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
Robbie Gibb issue is just one case where Labour has left in place people appointed by the Tories : Arif Ahmed at OfS, Kishwer and Reindorf at EHRC. Real self-sabotage.
November 11, 2025 at 8:45 AM
Robbie Gibb issue is just one case where Labour has left in place people appointed by the Tories : Arif Ahmed at OfS, Kishwer and Reindorf at EHRC. Real self-sabotage.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
The Panorama edit was poor journalism, not sure how it happened (more than 15 yo when I worked there we all had to go on a course because someone made the Queen look grumpy about something in the wrong order). But of all of it, this is the only piece I’ve read that properly nails the issue…
The reaction to the Panorama edit has been nothing short of hysterical. Yes the BBC has some impartiality problems. But its biggest isn't the one you think.
New piece from me.
open.substack.com/pub/goodalla...
New piece from me.
open.substack.com/pub/goodalla...
The truth about impartiality at the BBC
And the hysteria of the current "crisis"
open.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 7:49 AM
The Panorama edit was poor journalism, not sure how it happened (more than 15 yo when I worked there we all had to go on a course because someone made the Queen look grumpy about something in the wrong order). But of all of it, this is the only piece I’ve read that properly nails the issue…
The current crisis gives the government a useful excuse to conduct major reform, to make among other things the BBC more robust to right wing media/political attacks. Does Labour have the good sense to take up this opportunity?
What you’re witnessing is a populist assault on the BBC.
This is not an institutional scandal in any meaningful sense of the word. It is an attack on public service broadcasting.
iandunt.substack.com/p/extra-edit...
This is not an institutional scandal in any meaningful sense of the word. It is an attack on public service broadcasting.
iandunt.substack.com/p/extra-edit...
November 10, 2025 at 1:06 PM
The current crisis gives the government a useful excuse to conduct major reform, to make among other things the BBC more robust to right wing media/political attacks. Does Labour have the good sense to take up this opportunity?
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
It’s ironic but predictable that the BBC duo -who tried so hard to please the right wing papers-are removed by the right wing papers.
November 9, 2025 at 6:46 PM
It’s ironic but predictable that the BBC duo -who tried so hard to please the right wing papers-are removed by the right wing papers.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
Headline from a serious and long working paper on the economic impact of Brexit. Possible that this has been feeding into OBR and HMT discussions?
November 10, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Headline from a serious and long working paper on the economic impact of Brexit. Possible that this has been feeding into OBR and HMT discussions?
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
From June 2033. Worked out well.
November 8, 2025 at 7:20 AM
From June 2033. Worked out well.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
Contrast this with Trump's infamous mocking of a disabled journalist
This is disability visibility.
Mamdani listened. He didn’t pander or talk over the disabled journalist.
He acknowledged his concerns and gave real responses about how he plans to fix them.
1 in 4 Americans has a disability, it’s a huge number of voters.
Don’t ignore us!
Mamdani listened. He didn’t pander or talk over the disabled journalist.
He acknowledged his concerns and gave real responses about how he plans to fix them.
1 in 4 Americans has a disability, it’s a huge number of voters.
Don’t ignore us!
November 7, 2025 at 10:44 AM
Contrast this with Trump's infamous mocking of a disabled journalist
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
This weeks post: UK Productivity and the Budget mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
if the Chancellor is going to break her tax pledge, she should do so in a big rather than small way. What she wants to avoid at all costs is finding herself in the same situation in a year or two years time.
if the Chancellor is going to break her tax pledge, she should do so in a big rather than small way. What she wants to avoid at all costs is finding herself in the same situation in a year or two years time.
UK Productivity and the Budget
Most people reading this will know that one of the Chancellor’s big problems that she will have to tackle in the November Budget is a down...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 6, 2025 at 9:02 AM
This weeks post: UK Productivity and the Budget mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
if the Chancellor is going to break her tax pledge, she should do so in a big rather than small way. What she wants to avoid at all costs is finding herself in the same situation in a year or two years time.
if the Chancellor is going to break her tax pledge, she should do so in a big rather than small way. What she wants to avoid at all costs is finding herself in the same situation in a year or two years time.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
"Far from draining our welfare system, migrants are supporting the British state’s solvency."
New analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
New analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
November 7, 2025 at 8:17 AM
"Far from draining our welfare system, migrants are supporting the British state’s solvency."
New analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
New analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
This weeks post: UK Productivity and the Budget mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
if the Chancellor is going to break her tax pledge, she should do so in a big rather than small way. What she wants to avoid at all costs is finding herself in the same situation in a year or two years time.
if the Chancellor is going to break her tax pledge, she should do so in a big rather than small way. What she wants to avoid at all costs is finding herself in the same situation in a year or two years time.
UK Productivity and the Budget
Most people reading this will know that one of the Chancellor’s big problems that she will have to tackle in the November Budget is a down...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 6, 2025 at 9:02 AM
This weeks post: UK Productivity and the Budget mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
if the Chancellor is going to break her tax pledge, she should do so in a big rather than small way. What she wants to avoid at all costs is finding herself in the same situation in a year or two years time.
if the Chancellor is going to break her tax pledge, she should do so in a big rather than small way. What she wants to avoid at all costs is finding herself in the same situation in a year or two years time.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
Vital piece of investigative reporting from Sky. They've uncovered the X algorithm which feeds users extremist right wing material from the moment they join the site. It is a far-right radicalisation engine, by design.
news.sky.com/story/the-x-...
news.sky.com/story/the-x-...
Elon Musk is boosting the British right - and this shows how
Elon Musk is boosting the British right - and this shows how
news.sky.com
November 6, 2025 at 7:23 AM
Vital piece of investigative reporting from Sky. They've uncovered the X algorithm which feeds users extremist right wing material from the moment they join the site. It is a far-right radicalisation engine, by design.
news.sky.com/story/the-x-...
news.sky.com/story/the-x-...
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
“When it comes to breaking a tax pledge, the phrase ‘better late than never’ applies. Far better to break the tax pledge now than in a budget nearer the election”
The Chancellor’s tax pledge cannot override her commitment to meet the fiscal rule involving the current deficit.
The Chancellor’s tax pledge cannot override her commitment to meet the fiscal rule involving the current deficit.
Y'days post: UK Productivity and the Budget mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
From a political point of view, one way to soften the damage caused by breaking their tax pledge is for the government to both increase and reduce some of the big three taxes.
From a political point of view, one way to soften the damage caused by breaking their tax pledge is for the government to both increase and reduce some of the big three taxes.
UK Productivity and the Budget
Most people reading this will know that one of the Chancellor’s big problems that she will have to tackle in the November Budget is a down...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 5, 2025 at 12:45 PM
“When it comes to breaking a tax pledge, the phrase ‘better late than never’ applies. Far better to break the tax pledge now than in a budget nearer the election”
The Chancellor’s tax pledge cannot override her commitment to meet the fiscal rule involving the current deficit.
The Chancellor’s tax pledge cannot override her commitment to meet the fiscal rule involving the current deficit.
Y'days post: UK Productivity and the Budget mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
From a political point of view, one way to soften the damage caused by breaking their tax pledge is for the government to both increase and reduce some of the big three taxes.
From a political point of view, one way to soften the damage caused by breaking their tax pledge is for the government to both increase and reduce some of the big three taxes.
UK Productivity and the Budget
Most people reading this will know that one of the Chancellor’s big problems that she will have to tackle in the November Budget is a down...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 5, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Y'days post: UK Productivity and the Budget mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
From a political point of view, one way to soften the damage caused by breaking their tax pledge is for the government to both increase and reduce some of the big three taxes.
From a political point of view, one way to soften the damage caused by breaking their tax pledge is for the government to both increase and reduce some of the big three taxes.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
Good article here by @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social. If the facts change, why then should anyone continue following the previously announced course. It can be argued that Reeves should have done this earlier, but as stated in article: better late than never.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
UK Productivity and the Budget
Most people reading this will know that one of the Chancellor’s big problems that she will have to tackle in the November Budget is a down...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 4, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Good article here by @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social. If the facts change, why then should anyone continue following the previously announced course. It can be argued that Reeves should have done this earlier, but as stated in article: better late than never.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
On the UK need to raise taxes:
"...it may well be that the OBR’s previous assumption of an eventual 4% hit to the level of productivity from Brexit may be too low".
To justify tax raises the rationale is easy: UK voted for Brexit and thus to become poorer.
"...it may well be that the OBR’s previous assumption of an eventual 4% hit to the level of productivity from Brexit may be too low".
To justify tax raises the rationale is easy: UK voted for Brexit and thus to become poorer.
New post: UK Productivity and the Budget
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
When it comes to breaking their tax pledge, the phrase ‘better late than never’ applies. Better now than in a budget nearer the election, both from a political and economic point of view.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
When it comes to breaking their tax pledge, the phrase ‘better late than never’ applies. Better now than in a budget nearer the election, both from a political and economic point of view.
UK Productivity and the Budget
Most people reading this will know that one of the Chancellor’s big problems that she will have to tackle in the November Budget is a down...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 4, 2025 at 10:44 AM
On the UK need to raise taxes:
"...it may well be that the OBR’s previous assumption of an eventual 4% hit to the level of productivity from Brexit may be too low".
To justify tax raises the rationale is easy: UK voted for Brexit and thus to become poorer.
"...it may well be that the OBR’s previous assumption of an eventual 4% hit to the level of productivity from Brexit may be too low".
To justify tax raises the rationale is easy: UK voted for Brexit and thus to become poorer.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
The case for tax rises is stronger & clearer than Reeves pretends. It's that, given our lack of productive capacity, we have an inflation problem, which means that the alternative to tax rises is either infeasible cuts in public spending or higher mortgage rates.
November 4, 2025 at 1:19 PM
The case for tax rises is stronger & clearer than Reeves pretends. It's that, given our lack of productive capacity, we have an inflation problem, which means that the alternative to tax rises is either infeasible cuts in public spending or higher mortgage rates.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
"Labour will be attacked for breaking its pledge whether it does so in a big or small way, or to use economic jargon, there is a large fixed cost element in breaking the pledge. What she wants to avoid at all costs is finding herself in the same situation in a year or two years time."
New post: UK Productivity and the Budget
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
When it comes to breaking their tax pledge, the phrase ‘better late than never’ applies. Better now than in a budget nearer the election, both from a political and economic point of view.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
When it comes to breaking their tax pledge, the phrase ‘better late than never’ applies. Better now than in a budget nearer the election, both from a political and economic point of view.
UK Productivity and the Budget
Most people reading this will know that one of the Chancellor’s big problems that she will have to tackle in the November Budget is a down...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 4, 2025 at 9:41 AM
"Labour will be attacked for breaking its pledge whether it does so in a big or small way, or to use economic jargon, there is a large fixed cost element in breaking the pledge. What she wants to avoid at all costs is finding herself in the same situation in a year or two years time."
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
"What also seems clear from a political point of view is that if the Chancellor is going to break her tax pledge, she should do so in a big rather than small way." 👇
New post: UK Productivity and the Budget
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
When it comes to breaking their tax pledge, the phrase ‘better late than never’ applies. Better now than in a budget nearer the election, both from a political and economic point of view.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
When it comes to breaking their tax pledge, the phrase ‘better late than never’ applies. Better now than in a budget nearer the election, both from a political and economic point of view.
UK Productivity and the Budget
Most people reading this will know that one of the Chancellor’s big problems that she will have to tackle in the November Budget is a down...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 4, 2025 at 9:19 AM
"What also seems clear from a political point of view is that if the Chancellor is going to break her tax pledge, she should do so in a big rather than small way." 👇
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
After a video seemed to show Israeli soldiers abusing a Palestinian prisoner, Israel has... arrested the lawyer who authorised the release of the video www.ft.com/content/0456...
Israeli military’s former top lawyer arrested over leaked prisoner video
Surveillance footage showed alleged abuse of Palestinian inmate at notorious Israeli prison
www.ft.com
November 3, 2025 at 2:21 PM
After a video seemed to show Israeli soldiers abusing a Palestinian prisoner, Israel has... arrested the lawyer who authorised the release of the video www.ft.com/content/0456...
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
And yes, one decisive budget now - to push markets into right direction - rather than attempting tax rises closer to a General Election.
bsky.app/profile/sjwr...
bsky.app/profile/sjwr...
New post: UK Productivity and the Budget
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
When it comes to breaking their tax pledge, the phrase ‘better late than never’ applies. Better now than in a budget nearer the election, both from a political and economic point of view.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
When it comes to breaking their tax pledge, the phrase ‘better late than never’ applies. Better now than in a budget nearer the election, both from a political and economic point of view.
UK Productivity and the Budget
Most people reading this will know that one of the Chancellor’s big problems that she will have to tackle in the November Budget is a down...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 4, 2025 at 9:06 AM
And yes, one decisive budget now - to push markets into right direction - rather than attempting tax rises closer to a General Election.
bsky.app/profile/sjwr...
bsky.app/profile/sjwr...
New post: UK Productivity and the Budget
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
When it comes to breaking their tax pledge, the phrase ‘better late than never’ applies. Better now than in a budget nearer the election, both from a political and economic point of view.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
When it comes to breaking their tax pledge, the phrase ‘better late than never’ applies. Better now than in a budget nearer the election, both from a political and economic point of view.
UK Productivity and the Budget
Most people reading this will know that one of the Chancellor’s big problems that she will have to tackle in the November Budget is a down...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 4, 2025 at 8:47 AM
New post: UK Productivity and the Budget
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
When it comes to breaking their tax pledge, the phrase ‘better late than never’ applies. Better now than in a budget nearer the election, both from a political and economic point of view.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/uk-p...
When it comes to breaking their tax pledge, the phrase ‘better late than never’ applies. Better now than in a budget nearer the election, both from a political and economic point of view.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
It's really notable how the govt, and the rest, rushed to condemn this policing decision as antisemitic (either without reading the details, or ignoring and burying them)...but take ages to respond to outright racism and incitement from the British herrenvolk crew and the MechaHitler guy 🤔
This weeks post: How the reaction to a football ban showed how our politicians and media have become trapped in right wing Islamophobic narratives and detached from the majority of voters mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/how-...
Within 5 hours leaders of the 4 main parties had condemned the ban.
Within 5 hours leaders of the 4 main parties had condemned the ban.
How the reaction to a football ban showed how our politicians and media have become trapped in right wing Islamophobic narratives and detached from the majority of voters
In the weeks before the Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters ban was announced, Conservative party leader-in-waiting Robert Jenrick declared that ...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
October 31, 2025 at 9:46 AM
It's really notable how the govt, and the rest, rushed to condemn this policing decision as antisemitic (either without reading the details, or ignoring and burying them)...but take ages to respond to outright racism and incitement from the British herrenvolk crew and the MechaHitler guy 🤔
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
Very poor from the government: it won't review suitability of X for its communications, and insists on keeping secret its previous review.
October 31, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Very poor from the government: it won't review suitability of X for its communications, and insists on keeping secret its previous review.
This weeks post: How the reaction to a football ban showed how our politicians and media have become trapped in right wing Islamophobic narratives and detached from the majority of voters mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/how-...
Within 5 hours leaders of the 4 main parties had condemned the ban.
Within 5 hours leaders of the 4 main parties had condemned the ban.
How the reaction to a football ban showed how our politicians and media have become trapped in right wing Islamophobic narratives and detached from the majority of voters
In the weeks before the Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters ban was announced, Conservative party leader-in-waiting Robert Jenrick declared that ...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
October 31, 2025 at 9:11 AM
This weeks post: How the reaction to a football ban showed how our politicians and media have become trapped in right wing Islamophobic narratives and detached from the majority of voters mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/how-...
Within 5 hours leaders of the 4 main parties had condemned the ban.
Within 5 hours leaders of the 4 main parties had condemned the ban.