Ruben C. Arslan
@ruben.the100.ci
Bayescurious evidence enthusiast at the100.ci
Topics: evolution, ovulation, mutation, intelligence, personality, sexuality, R, open science & source tools. https://rubenarslan.github.io/
Topics: evolution, ovulation, mutation, intelligence, personality, sexuality, R, open science & source tools. https://rubenarslan.github.io/
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
Moral: Be careful what you ask for.
November 15, 2025 at 10:14 PM
Moral: Be careful what you ask for.
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
A delightful detail about this is that some time ago we gifted Saloni an engraved cleaver with a chart depicting the number of stabbings in the UK over time.
Kinda unbelievable that you can get age ID'ed for buying ... butter knives ... in the UK, as I just did.
November 15, 2025 at 3:57 PM
A delightful detail about this is that some time ago we gifted Saloni an engraved cleaver with a chart depicting the number of stabbings in the UK over time.
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
📣 Digital Research Community!
The new UK Adolescent Health Study will follow 100k young people (8–18yrs) for 10+ years. Please share what digital technology measures you think it should include.
Please complete this survey (by 24th November 2025 @ 9AM): cambridge.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
The new UK Adolescent Health Study will follow 100k young people (8–18yrs) for 10+ years. Please share what digital technology measures you think it should include.
Please complete this survey (by 24th November 2025 @ 9AM): cambridge.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
Adolescent Health Survey - Digital Media
Expert guidance shaping digital media questions in upcoming Adolescent Health Study.
cambridge.eu.qualtrics.com
November 14, 2025 at 3:33 PM
📣 Digital Research Community!
The new UK Adolescent Health Study will follow 100k young people (8–18yrs) for 10+ years. Please share what digital technology measures you think it should include.
Please complete this survey (by 24th November 2025 @ 9AM): cambridge.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
The new UK Adolescent Health Study will follow 100k young people (8–18yrs) for 10+ years. Please share what digital technology measures you think it should include.
Please complete this survey (by 24th November 2025 @ 9AM): cambridge.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
Synchronous Robustness Reports could explore implications of different analytical choices – but they could still suffer from bias. Hardwicke argues that preregistration is crucial to prevent it.
@tomhardwicke.bsky.social
@tomhardwicke.bsky.social
Risk of bias in robustness reports: https://osf.io/wj26e
November 14, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Synchronous Robustness Reports could explore implications of different analytical choices – but they could still suffer from bias. Hardwicke argues that preregistration is crucial to prevent it.
@tomhardwicke.bsky.social
@tomhardwicke.bsky.social
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
Are methodological and causal inference errors creating a false impression that the gut microbiome causes autism? In this strong analysis, Mitchell, Dahly, and Bishop question the evidence.
They show that triangulation in science requires multiple robust lines of research.
They show that triangulation in science requires multiple robust lines of research.
The link between the gut #microbiome and autism is not backed by science, researchers say.
Read the full opinion piece in @cp-neuron.bsky.social: spkl.io/63322AbxpA
@wiringthebrain.bsky.social, @statsepi.bsky.social, & @deevybee.bsky.social
Read the full opinion piece in @cp-neuron.bsky.social: spkl.io/63322AbxpA
@wiringthebrain.bsky.social, @statsepi.bsky.social, & @deevybee.bsky.social
November 14, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Are methodological and causal inference errors creating a false impression that the gut microbiome causes autism? In this strong analysis, Mitchell, Dahly, and Bishop question the evidence.
They show that triangulation in science requires multiple robust lines of research.
They show that triangulation in science requires multiple robust lines of research.
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
Yes, like a Netflix documentary included IN EVERY SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY TEXTBOOK
I think many people don't realise that "When Prophecy Fails" is not an experimental study, but a work of history. Its like finding out that a popular Netflix documentary is fake. Bad but does not change science. Social psychology is not based on this book in any way.
There’s growing evidence that something was going seriously wrong in the classic early work on cognitive dissonance
Latest revelation: The story in When Prophecy Fails seems to have been fabricated in the most egregious way
But this is not the only one…
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Latest revelation: The story in When Prophecy Fails seems to have been fabricated in the most egregious way
But this is not the only one…
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
November 13, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Yes, like a Netflix documentary included IN EVERY SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY TEXTBOOK
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
The print edition of Works in Progress is now available in:
• Canada 🇨🇦
• Australia 🇦🇺
• the European Union 🇪🇺 🇮🇪 🇩🇪
Subscribe today for 6 beautiful issues a year. The first edition ships in 2 weeks! 🥳
worksinprogress.co/print/
• Canada 🇨🇦
• Australia 🇦🇺
• the European Union 🇪🇺 🇮🇪 🇩🇪
Subscribe today for 6 beautiful issues a year. The first edition ships in 2 weeks! 🥳
worksinprogress.co/print/
Print - Works in Progress Magazine
worksinprogress.co
November 4, 2025 at 12:38 PM
The print edition of Works in Progress is now available in:
• Canada 🇨🇦
• Australia 🇦🇺
• the European Union 🇪🇺 🇮🇪 🇩🇪
Subscribe today for 6 beautiful issues a year. The first edition ships in 2 weeks! 🥳
worksinprogress.co/print/
• Canada 🇨🇦
• Australia 🇦🇺
• the European Union 🇪🇺 🇮🇪 🇩🇪
Subscribe today for 6 beautiful issues a year. The first edition ships in 2 weeks! 🥳
worksinprogress.co/print/
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
"For instance, randomized controlled trials could explicitly manipulate multilingualism"
November 11, 2025 at 8:28 AM
"For instance, randomized controlled trials could explicitly manipulate multilingualism"
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
This one surely has something on offer for every one: In this cross-sectional mediation analysis, the "effects" of soft drink consumption on depression were "mediated" by abundance of Eggerthela in the gut microbiome.
This was sent to me via dm and now you all got to suffer as well.
This was sent to me via dm and now you all got to suffer as well.
Soft Drink Consumption and Depression Mediated by Gut Microbiome Alterations
This cohort study examines the association between soft drink consumption and major depressive disorder diagnosis and severity and whether this association is mediated by changes in the gut microbiota...
jamanetwork.com
November 9, 2025 at 7:19 AM
This one surely has something on offer for every one: In this cross-sectional mediation analysis, the "effects" of soft drink consumption on depression were "mediated" by abundance of Eggerthela in the gut microbiome.
This was sent to me via dm and now you all got to suffer as well.
This was sent to me via dm and now you all got to suffer as well.
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
I feel like psychometrics is uniquely bad at naming things. Parallel, congeneric, tau-equivalent, essentially tau-equivalent measures? Configural, metric, scalar, residual invariance? Item difficulty defined so that the higher the difficulty, the easier the item???
November 7, 2025 at 5:45 PM
I feel like psychometrics is uniquely bad at naming things. Parallel, congeneric, tau-equivalent, essentially tau-equivalent measures? Configural, metric, scalar, residual invariance? Item difficulty defined so that the higher the difficulty, the easier the item???
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
Oops. Ooooooooooooops.
I do hope that nobody has been given or denied a job/promotion based on their SpringerNature citation counts in the past 15 years.
arxiv.org/pdf/2511.01675
h/t @nathlarigaldie.bsky.social
I do hope that nobody has been given or denied a job/promotion based on their SpringerNature citation counts in the past 15 years.
arxiv.org/pdf/2511.01675
h/t @nathlarigaldie.bsky.social
November 7, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Oops. Ooooooooooooops.
I do hope that nobody has been given or denied a job/promotion based on their SpringerNature citation counts in the past 15 years.
arxiv.org/pdf/2511.01675
h/t @nathlarigaldie.bsky.social
I do hope that nobody has been given or denied a job/promotion based on their SpringerNature citation counts in the past 15 years.
arxiv.org/pdf/2511.01675
h/t @nathlarigaldie.bsky.social
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
Do you teach #rstats? Do your students complain about how lame and old-fashioned dplyr is? Don't worry: I have the solution for you: github.com/hadley/genzp....
genzplyr is dplyr, but bussin fr fr no cap.
genzplyr is dplyr, but bussin fr fr no cap.
GitHub - hadley/genzplyr: dplyr but make it bussin fr fr no cap
dplyr but make it bussin fr fr no cap. Contribute to hadley/genzplyr development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com
November 6, 2025 at 11:25 PM
Do you teach #rstats? Do your students complain about how lame and old-fashioned dplyr is? Don't worry: I have the solution for you: github.com/hadley/genzp....
genzplyr is dplyr, but bussin fr fr no cap.
genzplyr is dplyr, but bussin fr fr no cap.
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
A recent redesign of OSF by @cos.io led to widespread access failures. What began as a few broken download links became for me a total disappearance of eight years of DOI-registered work. What happened, how was it resolved, and what it reveals about trust and infrastructure in open science
Open Science needs reliable infrastructure – Ven Popov
After OSF’s October 2025 redesign, I discovered that eight years of DOI-linked preprints and materials were silently hidden by an automated spam flag. What happened, how it was resolved, and what it r...
venpopov.com
November 6, 2025 at 6:13 PM
A recent redesign of OSF by @cos.io led to widespread access failures. What began as a few broken download links became for me a total disappearance of eight years of DOI-registered work. What happened, how was it resolved, and what it reveals about trust and infrastructure in open science
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
Don't know if it's related, but in my case "not found" turned out to be the result of a silent SPAM flag on my account that delisted 8 years worth of preprints... bsky.app/profile/venp...
A recent redesign of OSF by @cos.io led to widespread access failures. What began as a few broken download links became for me a total disappearance of eight years of DOI-registered work. What happened, how was it resolved, and what it reveals about trust and infrastructure in open science
Open Science needs reliable infrastructure – Ven Popov
After OSF’s October 2025 redesign, I discovered that eight years of DOI-linked preprints and materials were silently hidden by an automated spam flag. What happened, how it was resolved, and what it r...
venpopov.com
November 6, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Don't know if it's related, but in my case "not found" turned out to be the result of a silent SPAM flag on my account that delisted 8 years worth of preprints... bsky.app/profile/venp...
I strongly recommend @hugoreasoning.bsky.social's book "Not Born Yesterday" if you've been exposed to too much social psychology about irrationality in your youth. press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
November 6, 2025 at 12:39 PM
I strongly recommend @hugoreasoning.bsky.social's book "Not Born Yesterday" if you've been exposed to too much social psychology about irrationality in your youth. press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
I successfully defended my Habilitation today, and was honoured by the committee’s positive feedback. I am very grateful for my colleagues, collaborators and students at the University of Bern who made this a very rewarding journey.
November 3, 2025 at 9:54 PM
I successfully defended my Habilitation today, and was honoured by the committee’s positive feedback. I am very grateful for my colleagues, collaborators and students at the University of Bern who made this a very rewarding journey.
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
We love a good 'association as as fluid' metaphor, but this guy takes it to the next level.
12/10 for the reminder that conditioning on a collider doesn't just mess with your identification; it can also flood your basement.
12/10 for the reminder that conditioning on a collider doesn't just mess with your identification; it can also flood your basement.
I built a DAG diagram with garden hoses for teaching.
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).
October 31, 2025 at 9:47 AM
We love a good 'association as as fluid' metaphor, but this guy takes it to the next level.
12/10 for the reminder that conditioning on a collider doesn't just mess with your identification; it can also flood your basement.
12/10 for the reminder that conditioning on a collider doesn't just mess with your identification; it can also flood your basement.
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
Really cool study: a fully recombinant antivenom made not from horse serum but from nanobodies i.e. tiny, single-chain antibodies derived from alpacas and llamas. These molecules are smaller, more stable, cheaper to produce, and less likely to trigger immune reactions.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Nanobody-based recombinant antivenom for cobra, mamba and rinkhals bites - Nature
A recombinant antivenom composed of eight nanobodies provides broad protection against venom-induced lethality and dermonecrosis in mice challenged with venoms from cobras, mambas and rinkha...
www.nature.com
October 31, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Really cool study: a fully recombinant antivenom made not from horse serum but from nanobodies i.e. tiny, single-chain antibodies derived from alpacas and llamas. These molecules are smaller, more stable, cheaper to produce, and less likely to trigger immune reactions.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
In short, the ANES data shows:
📉 Social media use is shrinking
💥 Twitter/X posting has moved ~50 points to the right
🧩 Platforms are splintering
🔊 Fewer people are talking — but those still talking are more politically extreme
📉 Social media use is shrinking
💥 Twitter/X posting has moved ~50 points to the right
🧩 Platforms are splintering
🔊 Fewer people are talking — but those still talking are more politically extreme
October 30, 2025 at 8:09 AM
In short, the ANES data shows:
📉 Social media use is shrinking
💥 Twitter/X posting has moved ~50 points to the right
🧩 Platforms are splintering
🔊 Fewer people are talking — but those still talking are more politically extreme
📉 Social media use is shrinking
💥 Twitter/X posting has moved ~50 points to the right
🧩 Platforms are splintering
🔊 Fewer people are talking — but those still talking are more politically extreme
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
There still seems to be a lot of confusion about significance testing in psych. No, p-values *don’t* become useless at large N. This flawed point also used to be framed as "too much power". But power isn't the problem – it's 1) unbalanced error rates and 2) the (lack of a) SESOI. 1/ >
But here's, the thing, p values and significance become useless at such large sample sizes. When you're dividing the coefficient by the SE and the sample size is in the tens of thousands, EVERYTHING IS SIGNIFICANT. All you're testing is whether the coefficient is different than zero.
October 31, 2025 at 8:13 AM
There still seems to be a lot of confusion about significance testing in psych. No, p-values *don’t* become useless at large N. This flawed point also used to be framed as "too much power". But power isn't the problem – it's 1) unbalanced error rates and 2) the (lack of a) SESOI. 1/ >
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
I built a DAG diagram with garden hoses for teaching.
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).
October 28, 2025 at 5:50 PM
I built a DAG diagram with garden hoses for teaching.
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
New blog post: Why we should stop using statistical techniques that have not been adequately vetted by experts in psychology daniellakens.blogspot.com/2025/10/why-... where I reflect on how we should check the quality of novel statistical techniques.
October 29, 2025 at 7:39 AM
New blog post: Why we should stop using statistical techniques that have not been adequately vetted by experts in psychology daniellakens.blogspot.com/2025/10/why-... where I reflect on how we should check the quality of novel statistical techniques.
I built a DAG diagram with garden hoses for teaching.
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).
October 28, 2025 at 5:50 PM
I built a DAG diagram with garden hoses for teaching.
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslan
When researchers bring up confounders without ever having declared the actual analysis goal
October 28, 2025 at 10:24 AM
When researchers bring up confounders without ever having declared the actual analysis goal