Ruben C. Arslan
@ruben.the100.ci
Bayescurious evidence enthusiast at the100.ci
Topics: evolution, ovulation, mutation, intelligence, personality, sexuality, R, open science & source tools. https://rubenarslan.github.io/
Topics: evolution, ovulation, mutation, intelligence, personality, sexuality, R, open science & source tools. https://rubenarslan.github.io/
Now I'm imagining a comedy horror movie showing your elongated shadow with the cleaver before it reveals you chopping leek.
November 16, 2025 at 8:33 AM
Now I'm imagining a comedy horror movie showing your elongated shadow with the cleaver before it reveals you chopping leek.
I have a pic, but there's no menacing looking Saloni in it, so what's even the point.
November 15, 2025 at 7:25 PM
I have a pic, but there's no menacing looking Saloni in it, so what's even the point.
did you get IDed when the cleaver was delivered??
November 15, 2025 at 7:12 PM
did you get IDed when the cleaver was delivered??
not sure what standardizing beta is good for since income is log scaled, but .10 doesn't seem much worse than .085 which is what you get by assuming 1% per IQ point.
November 13, 2025 at 10:39 PM
not sure what standardizing beta is good for since income is log scaled, but .10 doesn't seem much worse than .085 which is what you get by assuming 1% per IQ point.
yeah, I doubt these numbers would make many go for IVF who don't have to (certainly not us), but many do IVF anyway, apparently 1-2% US, 10% ish in denmark
November 13, 2025 at 10:37 PM
yeah, I doubt these numbers would make many go for IVF who don't have to (certainly not us), but many do IVF anyway, apparently 1-2% US, 10% ish in denmark
no, they actually report prediction of family income in the paper, std.beta of .10.
November 13, 2025 at 10:34 PM
no, they actually report prediction of family income in the paper, std.beta of .10.
in germany, you can create up to 3 embryos and have to implant all, which is IMO bad. US, there can be some 'quality' assessment already ranging from visual inspection to PGT-A/M. I'm just saying, if you have 10 embryos, you have to choose some, somehow. That choice can be random, or PGT-A/M/P or or
November 13, 2025 at 10:24 PM
in germany, you can create up to 3 embryos and have to implant all, which is IMO bad. US, there can be some 'quality' assessment already ranging from visual inspection to PGT-A/M. I'm just saying, if you have 10 embryos, you have to choose some, somehow. That choice can be random, or PGT-A/M/P or or
Sorry, we're deep in the thread here. I did understand that you want uncertainty to be included (though I doubt it'll put as many people off as you think). I did not understand that these later tweets about society/population were a rephrasal of that desire. bsky.app/profile/tkai...
…to compete with one another and thus don't want to optimize "society" as a whole by bumping the average IQ ~4 points higher, but rather their own families to have an advantage. And I'm pretty sure that these companies know this.
November 13, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Sorry, we're deep in the thread here. I did understand that you want uncertainty to be included (though I doubt it'll put as many people off as you think). I did not understand that these later tweets about society/population were a rephrasal of that desire. bsky.app/profile/tkai...
"so we abstain" is a choice to choose randomly, you mean? or not to have kids? or to implant 10 embryos lol?
November 13, 2025 at 10:08 PM
"so we abstain" is a choice to choose randomly, you mean? or not to have kids? or to implant 10 embryos lol?
you mean they should give parents uncertainty bounds/scenarios in their advertising, instead of focusing on EV? I don't disagree with that, just didn't get that from your first tweet.
November 13, 2025 at 9:49 PM
you mean they should give parents uncertainty bounds/scenarios in their advertising, instead of focusing on EV? I don't disagree with that, just didn't get that from your first tweet.
practically pays for itself ;-) should probably load the dice by starting life as a US citizen though.
November 13, 2025 at 9:45 PM
practically pays for itself ;-) should probably load the dice by starting life as a US citizen though.
Absolutely. And I think there is a lot for watchdogs to watch. I prefer to separate the moral debate from the "can it work" debate for clarity reasons, but both need to be had.
November 13, 2025 at 9:32 PM
Absolutely. And I think there is a lot for watchdogs to watch. I prefer to separate the moral debate from the "can it work" debate for clarity reasons, but both need to be had.
I'd be curious to read more about this, because this was the biggest surprise in their paper. I agree there's different ways to calculate it, but one is correct for their decision problem and others aren't. So which did they do? too late to rabbithole now
November 13, 2025 at 9:29 PM
I'd be curious to read more about this, because this was the biggest surprise in their paper. I agree there's different ways to calculate it, but one is correct for their decision problem and others aren't. So which did they do? too late to rabbithole now
maybe we're talking past each other. with this minimal sim, the pgi-top-ranked is worse than a random pick 30% of the time. is this what you mean? I don't disagree with that. But you have to choose somehow, and random picking clearly does worse more often.
November 13, 2025 at 9:27 PM
maybe we're talking past each other. with this minimal sim, the pgi-top-ranked is worse than a random pick 30% of the time. is this what you mean? I don't disagree with that. But you have to choose somehow, and random picking clearly does worse more often.
I expect everyone to cherry pick, not just companies. But in the past I've not known Tobias to bias his estimates. No, I can't really tell, I just wanted to write that sentence.
November 13, 2025 at 9:19 PM
I expect everyone to cherry pick, not just companies. But in the past I've not known Tobias to bias his estimates. No, I can't really tell, I just wanted to write that sentence.
it's not either/or is it? I mainly care about monogenic disorders, because my son has one, but I guess they're not wrong about what their target audience is willing to pay for.
November 13, 2025 at 9:19 PM
it's not either/or is it? I mainly care about monogenic disorders, because my son has one, but I guess they're not wrong about what their target audience is willing to pay for.
I agree the most surprising thing is how high the value is for within-family, given EA4s performance.
November 13, 2025 at 9:15 PM
I agree the most surprising thing is how high the value is for within-family, given EA4s performance.
In principle, I think it's fair to disattenuate the measurement error in such predictions, we're not trying to optimize scores on a shitty fluid IQ test. I did read results for latent g in UKB didn't improve as much as one would have forecast.
November 13, 2025 at 9:14 PM
In principle, I think it's fair to disattenuate the measurement error in such predictions, we're not trying to optimize scores on a shitty fluid IQ test. I did read results for latent g in UKB didn't improve as much as one would have forecast.
sounds reasonable to me (this being at average incomes, probably not true for users of this technology, but let's not overthink).
November 13, 2025 at 9:12 PM
sounds reasonable to me (this being at average incomes, probably not true for users of this technology, but let's not overthink).
how is this not putting the decision problem on the family level?
November 13, 2025 at 9:10 PM
how is this not putting the decision problem on the family level?