Patrick English
@patrick-pme.bsky.social
YouGov guy earning paychecks by researching public opinion, projecting elections, doing MRPs, running campaign and comms testing and development, figuring out how AI can help measure public opinion, and being a talking head in the media.
Reposted by Patrick English
I would say this…
But this podcast is a must-listen to understand what happened at Conservative Party conference and whether Kemi Badenoch’s stamp duty plan adds up
Properly insightful analysis from ace @instituteforgovernment.org.uk colleagues and @patrick-pme.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk
But this podcast is a must-listen to understand what happened at Conservative Party conference and whether Kemi Badenoch’s stamp duty plan adds up
Properly insightful analysis from ace @instituteforgovernment.org.uk colleagues and @patrick-pme.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk
PODCAST 🎙️ Lessons in Kemistry
@patrick-pme.bsky.social joins @drhannahwhite.bsky.social @alexgathomas.bsky.social @tompope.bsky.social in Manchester to assess the state of the official opposition at the Conservative Party Conference #CPC25 www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/podcast/insi...
@patrick-pme.bsky.social joins @drhannahwhite.bsky.social @alexgathomas.bsky.social @tompope.bsky.social in Manchester to assess the state of the official opposition at the Conservative Party Conference #CPC25 www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/podcast/insi...
Lessons in Kemistry | Institute for Government
YouGov's Patrick English joined the Inside Briefing team in Manchester to assess the state of the official opposition.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
October 9, 2025 at 7:57 AM
I would say this…
But this podcast is a must-listen to understand what happened at Conservative Party conference and whether Kemi Badenoch’s stamp duty plan adds up
Properly insightful analysis from ace @instituteforgovernment.org.uk colleagues and @patrick-pme.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk
But this podcast is a must-listen to understand what happened at Conservative Party conference and whether Kemi Badenoch’s stamp duty plan adds up
Properly insightful analysis from ace @instituteforgovernment.org.uk colleagues and @patrick-pme.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk
Reposted by Patrick English
Look out for a #CPC25 Inside Briefing special podcast - the IfG team @drhannahwhite.bsky.social @alexgathomas.bsky.social @tompope.bsky.social are joined by guest @patrick-pme.bsky.social.
Landing in your podcast feeds tomorrow. 🎧👀
Landing in your podcast feeds tomorrow. 🎧👀
October 7, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Look out for a #CPC25 Inside Briefing special podcast - the IfG team @drhannahwhite.bsky.social @alexgathomas.bsky.social @tompope.bsky.social are joined by guest @patrick-pme.bsky.social.
Landing in your podcast feeds tomorrow. 🎧👀
Landing in your podcast feeds tomorrow. 🎧👀
Reposted by Patrick English
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
September 16, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
It’s been a bit of a week or so in British politics, right?
Eyes are now naturally turning back toward Labour Party members as an electorate.
But it’s important to think about *who* the members are, these days. There’s been a lot of churn since Corbyn and even Starmer elections
Eyes are now naturally turning back toward Labour Party members as an electorate.
But it’s important to think about *who* the members are, these days. There’s been a lot of churn since Corbyn and even Starmer elections
September 14, 2025 at 2:10 PM
It’s been a bit of a week or so in British politics, right?
Eyes are now naturally turning back toward Labour Party members as an electorate.
But it’s important to think about *who* the members are, these days. There’s been a lot of churn since Corbyn and even Starmer elections
Eyes are now naturally turning back toward Labour Party members as an electorate.
But it’s important to think about *who* the members are, these days. There’s been a lot of churn since Corbyn and even Starmer elections
Phillipson and Powell seem pretty well set to get to 80 from here, you'd think.
There are still over 250 MPs left to declare. Easily enough for more candidates to make it, theoretically...
You'd think most likely third option is Bell Ribeiro-Addy mustering Labour left support but who knows?
There are still over 250 MPs left to declare. Easily enough for more candidates to make it, theoretically...
You'd think most likely third option is Bell Ribeiro-Addy mustering Labour left support but who knows?
Allies of Bridget Phillipson think she will comfortably sail past 80 nominations today, making her very much the front runner.
A two horse race looks likely with Phillipson versus Lucy Powell.
Many of those dissatisfied with Labour’s direction now lining up with Powell.
A two horse race looks likely with Phillipson versus Lucy Powell.
Many of those dissatisfied with Labour’s direction now lining up with Powell.
September 10, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Phillipson and Powell seem pretty well set to get to 80 from here, you'd think.
There are still over 250 MPs left to declare. Easily enough for more candidates to make it, theoretically...
You'd think most likely third option is Bell Ribeiro-Addy mustering Labour left support but who knows?
There are still over 250 MPs left to declare. Easily enough for more candidates to make it, theoretically...
You'd think most likely third option is Bell Ribeiro-Addy mustering Labour left support but who knows?
Some polling nuggets on Angela Rayner, now that the Deputy Prime Minister has resigned.
First, the British public believed that Angela Rayner should resign even *before* Sir Laurie Magnus released his findings today.
This included 36% of those who voted Labour in 2024.
First, the British public believed that Angela Rayner should resign even *before* Sir Laurie Magnus released his findings today.
This included 36% of those who voted Labour in 2024.
September 5, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Some polling nuggets on Angela Rayner, now that the Deputy Prime Minister has resigned.
First, the British public believed that Angela Rayner should resign even *before* Sir Laurie Magnus released his findings today.
This included 36% of those who voted Labour in 2024.
First, the British public believed that Angela Rayner should resign even *before* Sir Laurie Magnus released his findings today.
This included 36% of those who voted Labour in 2024.
🚨🔔 NEW, from me!
I’ve taken some time to review the evidence and try to give answers on…
🤔 Are Reform popular with young voters?
🌹 How much ground have Labour with the British youth?
⬇️ Who will benefit most from ‘Votes at 16’, Starmer or Farage?
patrickenglish.substack.com/p/reform-and...
I’ve taken some time to review the evidence and try to give answers on…
🤔 Are Reform popular with young voters?
🌹 How much ground have Labour with the British youth?
⬇️ Who will benefit most from ‘Votes at 16’, Starmer or Farage?
patrickenglish.substack.com/p/reform-and...
Reform and young people in the context of votes at 16
Anecdotes may claim rising support for the right among the British youth, but is that so?
patrickenglish.substack.com
July 20, 2025 at 8:35 PM
🚨🔔 NEW, from me!
I’ve taken some time to review the evidence and try to give answers on…
🤔 Are Reform popular with young voters?
🌹 How much ground have Labour with the British youth?
⬇️ Who will benefit most from ‘Votes at 16’, Starmer or Farage?
patrickenglish.substack.com/p/reform-and...
I’ve taken some time to review the evidence and try to give answers on…
🤔 Are Reform popular with young voters?
🌹 How much ground have Labour with the British youth?
⬇️ Who will benefit most from ‘Votes at 16’, Starmer or Farage?
patrickenglish.substack.com/p/reform-and...
This article is very strong on the potential polling and electoral consequences of lowering the voting age to 16.
Parties of the left are absolutely dominant among young voters. Labour are most popular. We hear a lot about “young people and Reform” but it’s only a really small minority, in reality.
Parties of the left are absolutely dominant among young voters. Labour are most popular. We hear a lot about “young people and Reform” but it’s only a really small minority, in reality.
Read the latest analysis from @danieljdunford.bsky.social and me for @news.sky.com on votes at 16 👇
Will extending the vote to 16-year-olds benefit Labour at the next general election?
Labour have said they will extend the right to vote to 16-year-olds in time for the next general election. Sky's Data and Forensics unit assesses whether it will help them at the ballot box, and how m...
news.sky.com
July 18, 2025 at 4:18 PM
This article is very strong on the potential polling and electoral consequences of lowering the voting age to 16.
Parties of the left are absolutely dominant among young voters. Labour are most popular. We hear a lot about “young people and Reform” but it’s only a really small minority, in reality.
Parties of the left are absolutely dominant among young voters. Labour are most popular. We hear a lot about “young people and Reform” but it’s only a really small minority, in reality.
Reposted by Patrick English
First @yougov.co.uk MRP since 2024 election shows a hung parliament with Reform UK as largest party.
(@patrick-pme.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250626
(@patrick-pme.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250626
June 26, 2025 at 9:19 PM
First @yougov.co.uk MRP since 2024 election shows a hung parliament with Reform UK as largest party.
(@patrick-pme.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250626
(@patrick-pme.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250626
🚨NEW 🚨 @YouGov have released our first MRP since #GE2024
If an election were being held right now...
➡️ Reform would be the largest party in a hung parliament
🌹Labour would be reduced to 176 seats
🌳Tories would become 4th party
⏫ Gains for Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, and Greens
If an election were being held right now...
➡️ Reform would be the largest party in a hung parliament
🌹Labour would be reduced to 176 seats
🌳Tories would become 4th party
⏫ Gains for Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, and Greens
June 26, 2025 at 5:21 AM
🚨NEW 🚨 @YouGov have released our first MRP since #GE2024
If an election were being held right now...
➡️ Reform would be the largest party in a hung parliament
🌹Labour would be reduced to 176 seats
🌳Tories would become 4th party
⏫ Gains for Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, and Greens
If an election were being held right now...
➡️ Reform would be the largest party in a hung parliament
🌹Labour would be reduced to 176 seats
🌳Tories would become 4th party
⏫ Gains for Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, and Greens
Reposted by Patrick English
Political volatility has been taking us by surprise for a while now. Here’s little exercise to illustrate. Rewind two years and take a look at where the polls were, what people expected, and what they failed to anticipate. You have to go back a while before politics is predictable even 2 yrs out 1/
A reminder of how volatile politics is now: Reform UK, who lead the current polls, won the most recent by-election and swept the board in the recent local elections, failed to retain their deposit or finish above third in any by-election from Old Bexley (Dec 21) to Tamworth (Oct 23)
June 11, 2025 at 6:48 AM
Political volatility has been taking us by surprise for a while now. Here’s little exercise to illustrate. Rewind two years and take a look at where the polls were, what people expected, and what they failed to anticipate. You have to go back a while before politics is predictable even 2 yrs out 1/
Reposted by Patrick English
Winter fuel payments are set to be restored to all pensioners with an income of £35,000 or less
Our poll found a plurality of Britons wanted to see more pensioners be eligible for WFPs (44%) rather than a return to all pensioners getting it (33%)
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
Our poll found a plurality of Britons wanted to see more pensioners be eligible for WFPs (44%) rather than a return to all pensioners getting it (33%)
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
June 9, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Winter fuel payments are set to be restored to all pensioners with an income of £35,000 or less
Our poll found a plurality of Britons wanted to see more pensioners be eligible for WFPs (44%) rather than a return to all pensioners getting it (33%)
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
Our poll found a plurality of Britons wanted to see more pensioners be eligible for WFPs (44%) rather than a return to all pensioners getting it (33%)
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
What is happening between Musk and Trump is of course dominating the headlines.
But the ongoing struggles that Reform are having keeping their own band together is worth tracking.
Reform Chair Zia Yusuf quit today in the third acrimonious party ‘falling out’ in 8 months.
But the ongoing struggles that Reform are having keeping their own band together is worth tracking.
Reform Chair Zia Yusuf quit today in the third acrimonious party ‘falling out’ in 8 months.
June 5, 2025 at 10:36 PM
What is happening between Musk and Trump is of course dominating the headlines.
But the ongoing struggles that Reform are having keeping their own band together is worth tracking.
Reform Chair Zia Yusuf quit today in the third acrimonious party ‘falling out’ in 8 months.
But the ongoing struggles that Reform are having keeping their own band together is worth tracking.
Reform Chair Zia Yusuf quit today in the third acrimonious party ‘falling out’ in 8 months.
Yes: Reform are leading the polls
Yes: Farage is popular among many voters
Yes: Reform did very well in the local elections
Also yes: Farage is a hugely divisive figure, and will unite voter coalitions *against* him, as well as for
He does not win a single @yougov.co.uk Best PM matchup 👇
Yes: Farage is popular among many voters
Yes: Reform did very well in the local elections
Also yes: Farage is a hugely divisive figure, and will unite voter coalitions *against* him, as well as for
He does not win a single @yougov.co.uk Best PM matchup 👇
May 27, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Yes: Reform are leading the polls
Yes: Farage is popular among many voters
Yes: Reform did very well in the local elections
Also yes: Farage is a hugely divisive figure, and will unite voter coalitions *against* him, as well as for
He does not win a single @yougov.co.uk Best PM matchup 👇
Yes: Farage is popular among many voters
Yes: Reform did very well in the local elections
Also yes: Farage is a hugely divisive figure, and will unite voter coalitions *against* him, as well as for
He does not win a single @yougov.co.uk Best PM matchup 👇
Reposted by Patrick English
NEW: Who are the voters Labour risks losing to Reform?
How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over?
Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇
How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over?
Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇
Getting to know 'Reform curious Labour voters'
exploring the attitudes, demography and values of Reform curious Labour voters and the coalitional dilemmas they lose
persuasionuk.org
April 28, 2025 at 7:22 AM
NEW: Who are the voters Labour risks losing to Reform?
How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over?
Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇
How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over?
Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇
Hard to express just how close the Liberals came to winning a majority.
This *one vote win* on the recount flips another seat into their column.
Liberals now *two seats* short of a majority.
They could get as close as *one seat* if the recount in Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore turns it their way.
This *one vote win* on the recount flips another seat into their column.
Liberals now *two seats* short of a majority.
They could get as close as *one seat* if the recount in Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore turns it their way.
Political scientists: the moment you have all been waiting for.
The governing party wins a parliamentary seat by 1 vote (23,352 votes to 23,351).
That brings their tally to 170 seats, two short of a majority.
The governing party wins a parliamentary seat by 1 vote (23,352 votes to 23,351).
That brings their tally to 170 seats, two short of a majority.
Quebec riding of Terrebonne flips to Liberals after recount shows candidate won by single vote | CBC News
After a judicial recount, sources tell CBC News the Quebec riding of Terrebonne has flipped to the Liberals, who have beaten the Bloc Québécois by one vote. The result means the Liberals have 170 seat...
www.cbc.ca
May 12, 2025 at 7:13 PM
Hard to express just how close the Liberals came to winning a majority.
This *one vote win* on the recount flips another seat into their column.
Liberals now *two seats* short of a majority.
They could get as close as *one seat* if the recount in Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore turns it their way.
This *one vote win* on the recount flips another seat into their column.
Liberals now *two seats* short of a majority.
They could get as close as *one seat* if the recount in Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore turns it their way.
Reposted by Patrick English
This chart is from @britishelectionstudy.com @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social, me and Ed Fieldhouse. You can see that 2024 Reform voters mainly came from the Conservatives or UKIP in 2015.
This has been a story on the right for *ten years* now, unless something very different happened last week.
This has been a story on the right for *ten years* now, unless something very different happened last week.
May 8, 2025 at 10:47 AM
This chart is from @britishelectionstudy.com @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social, me and Ed Fieldhouse. You can see that 2024 Reform voters mainly came from the Conservatives or UKIP in 2015.
This has been a story on the right for *ten years* now, unless something very different happened last week.
This has been a story on the right for *ten years* now, unless something very different happened last week.
A reminder of the final @yougov.co.uk MRP projection of the Australian federal election.
We expected an increased Labor majority, while other models pointed to a hung parliament.
But Labor are outperforming even our expectations at the minute.
We expected an increased Labor majority, while other models pointed to a hung parliament.
But Labor are outperforming even our expectations at the minute.
May 3, 2025 at 1:27 PM
A reminder of the final @yougov.co.uk MRP projection of the Australian federal election.
We expected an increased Labor majority, while other models pointed to a hung parliament.
But Labor are outperforming even our expectations at the minute.
We expected an increased Labor majority, while other models pointed to a hung parliament.
But Labor are outperforming even our expectations at the minute.
Here's another.
This graph shows the relationship between estimated 2016 Leave share and party performance from 2021-25.
There's no real relationship for any party *apart* from Reform UK, where we see a pretty clear uptick in Reform share increase as estimated Leave goes up.
This graph shows the relationship between estimated 2016 Leave share and party performance from 2021-25.
There's no real relationship for any party *apart* from Reform UK, where we see a pretty clear uptick in Reform share increase as estimated Leave goes up.
May 2, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Here's another.
This graph shows the relationship between estimated 2016 Leave share and party performance from 2021-25.
There's no real relationship for any party *apart* from Reform UK, where we see a pretty clear uptick in Reform share increase as estimated Leave goes up.
This graph shows the relationship between estimated 2016 Leave share and party performance from 2021-25.
There's no real relationship for any party *apart* from Reform UK, where we see a pretty clear uptick in Reform share increase as estimated Leave goes up.
Reposted by Patrick English
An illustration of how FPP goes from sandbag to springboard - Reform votes and seats in different councils:
Oxfordshire: 18% vote, 2% seats
Cambridgeshire: 23% vote, 16% seats
Devon: 27% vote, 30% seats
Leicestershire: 33% vote, 46% seats
Derbyshire: 37% vote, 66% seats
Oxfordshire: 18% vote, 2% seats
Cambridgeshire: 23% vote, 16% seats
Devon: 27% vote, 30% seats
Leicestershire: 33% vote, 46% seats
Derbyshire: 37% vote, 66% seats
May 2, 2025 at 5:07 PM
An illustration of how FPP goes from sandbag to springboard - Reform votes and seats in different councils:
Oxfordshire: 18% vote, 2% seats
Cambridgeshire: 23% vote, 16% seats
Devon: 27% vote, 30% seats
Leicestershire: 33% vote, 46% seats
Derbyshire: 37% vote, 66% seats
Oxfordshire: 18% vote, 2% seats
Cambridgeshire: 23% vote, 16% seats
Devon: 27% vote, 30% seats
Leicestershire: 33% vote, 46% seats
Derbyshire: 37% vote, 66% seats
As you have just heard from Laura on the BBC elections coverage, we are now proejcting that the Conservatives will win the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough combined authority mayoral position, taking it from Labour.
We await the final numbers from Cambridge to confirm.
We await the final numbers from Cambridge to confirm.
May 2, 2025 at 12:27 PM
As you have just heard from Laura on the BBC elections coverage, we are now proejcting that the Conservatives will win the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough combined authority mayoral position, taking it from Labour.
We await the final numbers from Cambridge to confirm.
We await the final numbers from Cambridge to confirm.
This is what we mean when we say it’s actually difficult for Labour to have a ‘really bad night’ tonight, by usual standards.
They’re defending about 1/3 of the seats that the Conservatives are.
Mayoral contests (esp. WoE and Cambs) offer more obvious areas of political pain for the government.
They’re defending about 1/3 of the seats that the Conservatives are.
Mayoral contests (esp. WoE and Cambs) offer more obvious areas of political pain for the government.
May 1, 2025 at 8:04 PM
This is what we mean when we say it’s actually difficult for Labour to have a ‘really bad night’ tonight, by usual standards.
They’re defending about 1/3 of the seats that the Conservatives are.
Mayoral contests (esp. WoE and Cambs) offer more obvious areas of political pain for the government.
They’re defending about 1/3 of the seats that the Conservatives are.
Mayoral contests (esp. WoE and Cambs) offer more obvious areas of political pain for the government.
Reposted by Patrick English
Another solid performance for the YouGov MRP in Canada. The central estimates were a little high for the Liberals and a little low for the Conservatives - but the result was within the distribution of modelled outcomes.
Interestingly, the vote share of both parties was slightly under-estimated.
Interestingly, the vote share of both parties was slightly under-estimated.
We at @yougov.co.uk have released our projection of the 2025 Canadian election. 🇨🇦🍁🗳️
Our central expectation is that the Liberals win a majority.
Overall vote share looks close: our median projection is 42% for the Liberals, 39% for the Conservatives.
The NDP look set for their worst ever result.
Our central expectation is that the Liberals win a majority.
Overall vote share looks close: our median projection is 42% for the Liberals, 39% for the Conservatives.
The NDP look set for their worst ever result.
April 29, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Another solid performance for the YouGov MRP in Canada. The central estimates were a little high for the Liberals and a little low for the Conservatives - but the result was within the distribution of modelled outcomes.
Interestingly, the vote share of both parties was slightly under-estimated.
Interestingly, the vote share of both parties was slightly under-estimated.
We at @yougov.co.uk have released our projection of the 2025 Canadian election. 🇨🇦🍁🗳️
Our central expectation is that the Liberals win a majority.
Overall vote share looks close: our median projection is 42% for the Liberals, 39% for the Conservatives.
The NDP look set for their worst ever result.
Our central expectation is that the Liberals win a majority.
Overall vote share looks close: our median projection is 42% for the Liberals, 39% for the Conservatives.
The NDP look set for their worst ever result.
April 25, 2025 at 9:35 PM
We at @yougov.co.uk have released our projection of the 2025 Canadian election. 🇨🇦🍁🗳️
Our central expectation is that the Liberals win a majority.
Overall vote share looks close: our median projection is 42% for the Liberals, 39% for the Conservatives.
The NDP look set for their worst ever result.
Our central expectation is that the Liberals win a majority.
Overall vote share looks close: our median projection is 42% for the Liberals, 39% for the Conservatives.
The NDP look set for their worst ever result.
Canada’s 2025 federal election could be one of the first in a new era of global instability and uncertainty where it *pays* to be the incumbent, after a 2024 which saw incumbents get *trashed* in elections worldwide.
But: many of the economic problems which led to those 2024 routs remain.
But: many of the economic problems which led to those 2024 routs remain.
April 18, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Canada’s 2025 federal election could be one of the first in a new era of global instability and uncertainty where it *pays* to be the incumbent, after a 2024 which saw incumbents get *trashed* in elections worldwide.
But: many of the economic problems which led to those 2024 routs remain.
But: many of the economic problems which led to those 2024 routs remain.