Patrick English
@patrick-pme.bsky.social
YouGov guy earning paychecks by researching public opinion, projecting elections, doing MRPs, running campaign and comms testing and development, figuring out how AI can help measure public opinion, and being a talking head in the media.
It’s been a bit of a week or so in British politics, right?
Eyes are now naturally turning back toward Labour Party members as an electorate.
But it’s important to think about *who* the members are, these days. There’s been a lot of churn since Corbyn and even Starmer elections
Eyes are now naturally turning back toward Labour Party members as an electorate.
But it’s important to think about *who* the members are, these days. There’s been a lot of churn since Corbyn and even Starmer elections
September 14, 2025 at 2:10 PM
It’s been a bit of a week or so in British politics, right?
Eyes are now naturally turning back toward Labour Party members as an electorate.
But it’s important to think about *who* the members are, these days. There’s been a lot of churn since Corbyn and even Starmer elections
Eyes are now naturally turning back toward Labour Party members as an electorate.
But it’s important to think about *who* the members are, these days. There’s been a lot of churn since Corbyn and even Starmer elections
Finally, while the public do prefer to have Keir Starmer over Labour's current top adversary Nigel Farage as their prime minister, back in May they were totally split on whether Rayner would make a better prime minister than the Reform leader.
September 5, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Finally, while the public do prefer to have Keir Starmer over Labour's current top adversary Nigel Farage as their prime minister, back in May they were totally split on whether Rayner would make a better prime minister than the Reform leader.
Brits are not convinced Rayner would make a good prime minister
11% of Brtis told us last month that they thought she would make a 'good' or 'great' PM, but 46% thought she would be 'poor' or 'terrible'
Her net score of -35 compares to -28 for Farage, -32 for Corbyn, and -35 for Badenoch
11% of Brtis told us last month that they thought she would make a 'good' or 'great' PM, but 46% thought she would be 'poor' or 'terrible'
Her net score of -35 compares to -28 for Farage, -32 for Corbyn, and -35 for Badenoch
September 5, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Brits are not convinced Rayner would make a good prime minister
11% of Brtis told us last month that they thought she would make a 'good' or 'great' PM, but 46% thought she would be 'poor' or 'terrible'
Her net score of -35 compares to -28 for Farage, -32 for Corbyn, and -35 for Badenoch
11% of Brtis told us last month that they thought she would make a 'good' or 'great' PM, but 46% thought she would be 'poor' or 'terrible'
Her net score of -35 compares to -28 for Farage, -32 for Corbyn, and -35 for Badenoch
Rayner's latest favourability numbers in our regular tracking were 21% favourable, 53% unfavourable.
Her net score of -32 was significantly better than Reeves (-47) and Starmer (-44), about the same as Farage (-29) and Badenoch (-31), and slightly better than Corbyn (-35).
Her net score of -32 was significantly better than Reeves (-47) and Starmer (-44), about the same as Farage (-29) and Badenoch (-31), and slightly better than Corbyn (-35).
September 5, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Rayner's latest favourability numbers in our regular tracking were 21% favourable, 53% unfavourable.
Her net score of -32 was significantly better than Reeves (-47) and Starmer (-44), about the same as Farage (-29) and Badenoch (-31), and slightly better than Corbyn (-35).
Her net score of -32 was significantly better than Reeves (-47) and Starmer (-44), about the same as Farage (-29) and Badenoch (-31), and slightly better than Corbyn (-35).
Some polling nuggets on Angela Rayner, now that the Deputy Prime Minister has resigned.
First, the British public believed that Angela Rayner should resign even *before* Sir Laurie Magnus released his findings today.
This included 36% of those who voted Labour in 2024.
First, the British public believed that Angela Rayner should resign even *before* Sir Laurie Magnus released his findings today.
This included 36% of those who voted Labour in 2024.
September 5, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Some polling nuggets on Angela Rayner, now that the Deputy Prime Minister has resigned.
First, the British public believed that Angela Rayner should resign even *before* Sir Laurie Magnus released his findings today.
This included 36% of those who voted Labour in 2024.
First, the British public believed that Angela Rayner should resign even *before* Sir Laurie Magnus released his findings today.
This included 36% of those who voted Labour in 2024.
🚨NEW 🚨 @YouGov have released our first MRP since #GE2024
If an election were being held right now...
➡️ Reform would be the largest party in a hung parliament
🌹Labour would be reduced to 176 seats
🌳Tories would become 4th party
⏫ Gains for Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, and Greens
If an election were being held right now...
➡️ Reform would be the largest party in a hung parliament
🌹Labour would be reduced to 176 seats
🌳Tories would become 4th party
⏫ Gains for Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, and Greens
June 26, 2025 at 5:21 AM
🚨NEW 🚨 @YouGov have released our first MRP since #GE2024
If an election were being held right now...
➡️ Reform would be the largest party in a hung parliament
🌹Labour would be reduced to 176 seats
🌳Tories would become 4th party
⏫ Gains for Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, and Greens
If an election were being held right now...
➡️ Reform would be the largest party in a hung parliament
🌹Labour would be reduced to 176 seats
🌳Tories would become 4th party
⏫ Gains for Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, and Greens
Yes: Reform are leading the polls
Yes: Farage is popular among many voters
Yes: Reform did very well in the local elections
Also yes: Farage is a hugely divisive figure, and will unite voter coalitions *against* him, as well as for
He does not win a single @yougov.co.uk Best PM matchup 👇
Yes: Farage is popular among many voters
Yes: Reform did very well in the local elections
Also yes: Farage is a hugely divisive figure, and will unite voter coalitions *against* him, as well as for
He does not win a single @yougov.co.uk Best PM matchup 👇
May 27, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Yes: Reform are leading the polls
Yes: Farage is popular among many voters
Yes: Reform did very well in the local elections
Also yes: Farage is a hugely divisive figure, and will unite voter coalitions *against* him, as well as for
He does not win a single @yougov.co.uk Best PM matchup 👇
Yes: Farage is popular among many voters
Yes: Reform did very well in the local elections
Also yes: Farage is a hugely divisive figure, and will unite voter coalitions *against* him, as well as for
He does not win a single @yougov.co.uk Best PM matchup 👇
A reminder of the final @yougov.co.uk MRP projection of the Australian federal election.
We expected an increased Labor majority, while other models pointed to a hung parliament.
But Labor are outperforming even our expectations at the minute.
We expected an increased Labor majority, while other models pointed to a hung parliament.
But Labor are outperforming even our expectations at the minute.
May 3, 2025 at 1:27 PM
A reminder of the final @yougov.co.uk MRP projection of the Australian federal election.
We expected an increased Labor majority, while other models pointed to a hung parliament.
But Labor are outperforming even our expectations at the minute.
We expected an increased Labor majority, while other models pointed to a hung parliament.
But Labor are outperforming even our expectations at the minute.
Here's another.
This graph shows the relationship between estimated 2016 Leave share and party performance from 2021-25.
There's no real relationship for any party *apart* from Reform UK, where we see a pretty clear uptick in Reform share increase as estimated Leave goes up.
This graph shows the relationship between estimated 2016 Leave share and party performance from 2021-25.
There's no real relationship for any party *apart* from Reform UK, where we see a pretty clear uptick in Reform share increase as estimated Leave goes up.
May 2, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Here's another.
This graph shows the relationship between estimated 2016 Leave share and party performance from 2021-25.
There's no real relationship for any party *apart* from Reform UK, where we see a pretty clear uptick in Reform share increase as estimated Leave goes up.
This graph shows the relationship between estimated 2016 Leave share and party performance from 2021-25.
There's no real relationship for any party *apart* from Reform UK, where we see a pretty clear uptick in Reform share increase as estimated Leave goes up.
We at @yougov.co.uk have released our projection of the 2025 Canadian election. 🇨🇦🍁🗳️
Our central expectation is that the Liberals win a majority.
Overall vote share looks close: our median projection is 42% for the Liberals, 39% for the Conservatives.
The NDP look set for their worst ever result.
Our central expectation is that the Liberals win a majority.
Overall vote share looks close: our median projection is 42% for the Liberals, 39% for the Conservatives.
The NDP look set for their worst ever result.
April 25, 2025 at 9:35 PM
We at @yougov.co.uk have released our projection of the 2025 Canadian election. 🇨🇦🍁🗳️
Our central expectation is that the Liberals win a majority.
Overall vote share looks close: our median projection is 42% for the Liberals, 39% for the Conservatives.
The NDP look set for their worst ever result.
Our central expectation is that the Liberals win a majority.
Overall vote share looks close: our median projection is 42% for the Liberals, 39% for the Conservatives.
The NDP look set for their worst ever result.
Something I wanted to share which really brought home the nature of this Canadian election contest to me.
Last night, I headed to the Toronto v Portland basketball game.
As usual, both the US and Canadian anthems were sang pre-game.
The US anthem got booed. Big time.
Last night, I headed to the Toronto v Portland basketball game.
As usual, both the US and Canadian anthems were sang pre-game.
The US anthem got booed. Big time.
April 4, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Something I wanted to share which really brought home the nature of this Canadian election contest to me.
Last night, I headed to the Toronto v Portland basketball game.
As usual, both the US and Canadian anthems were sang pre-game.
The US anthem got booed. Big time.
Last night, I headed to the Toronto v Portland basketball game.
As usual, both the US and Canadian anthems were sang pre-game.
The US anthem got booed. Big time.
As you may have seen, @YouGov were the *most accurate* pollster at the 2025 German election.
This result means so much to me: I took up leadership of the DE Political team as one of my first big responsibilities when I joined YouGov
We were just two people at the 2021 election!
This result means so much to me: I took up leadership of the DE Political team as one of my first big responsibilities when I joined YouGov
We were just two people at the 2021 election!
February 27, 2025 at 6:46 PM
As you may have seen, @YouGov were the *most accurate* pollster at the 2025 German election.
This result means so much to me: I took up leadership of the DE Political team as one of my first big responsibilities when I joined YouGov
We were just two people at the 2021 election!
This result means so much to me: I took up leadership of the DE Political team as one of my first big responsibilities when I joined YouGov
We were just two people at the 2021 election!
It’s official - YouGov were the most accurate pollster of the 2025 German federal election 😊
Our MRP model called 91% of constituency races correct, too.
#BTW25
Our MRP model called 91% of constituency races correct, too.
#BTW25
February 24, 2025 at 9:01 AM
It’s official - YouGov were the most accurate pollster of the 2025 German federal election 😊
Our MRP model called 91% of constituency races correct, too.
#BTW25
Our MRP model called 91% of constituency races correct, too.
#BTW25
A reminder of YouGov’s final call for the 2025 German federal election.
February 23, 2025 at 5:24 PM
A reminder of YouGov’s final call for the 2025 German federal election.
“The old Iron Curtain is now a barrier against a blue tide”
“The AfD have been winning support from [former voters of] the SPD, the FDP, smaller (non-Bundestag) parties, and even the Union”
Link to my article summarising the German election and expected results tonight substack.com/home/post/p-...
“The AfD have been winning support from [former voters of] the SPD, the FDP, smaller (non-Bundestag) parties, and even the Union”
Link to my article summarising the German election and expected results tonight substack.com/home/post/p-...
February 23, 2025 at 4:04 PM
“The old Iron Curtain is now a barrier against a blue tide”
“The AfD have been winning support from [former voters of] the SPD, the FDP, smaller (non-Bundestag) parties, and even the Union”
Link to my article summarising the German election and expected results tonight substack.com/home/post/p-...
“The AfD have been winning support from [former voters of] the SPD, the FDP, smaller (non-Bundestag) parties, and even the Union”
Link to my article summarising the German election and expected results tonight substack.com/home/post/p-...
Why is this important? Because sampling theory - the statistical mechanism which gives us confidence that we can speak to 2000 people to gauge the opinions of millions, assumes that everyone has an equal probability of being in that 2000 sample.
When they don’t, that creates challenges and biases.
When they don’t, that creates challenges and biases.
February 18, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Why is this important? Because sampling theory - the statistical mechanism which gives us confidence that we can speak to 2000 people to gauge the opinions of millions, assumes that everyone has an equal probability of being in that 2000 sample.
When they don’t, that creates challenges and biases.
When they don’t, that creates challenges and biases.
Here’s what our @yougov.co.uk MRP of Germany’s 299 constituencies (paging @mattchorley.bsky.social!) is suggesting will happen in February’s snap general election.
A blue AfD wave rides across from the east, while a black CDU/CSU tide sweeps up from the south
Huge consequences for German politics
A blue AfD wave rides across from the east, while a black CDU/CSU tide sweeps up from the south
Huge consequences for German politics
January 17, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Here’s what our @yougov.co.uk MRP of Germany’s 299 constituencies (paging @mattchorley.bsky.social!) is suggesting will happen in February’s snap general election.
A blue AfD wave rides across from the east, while a black CDU/CSU tide sweeps up from the south
Huge consequences for German politics
A blue AfD wave rides across from the east, while a black CDU/CSU tide sweeps up from the south
Huge consequences for German politics
A major moment could be on the cards for the far-right AfD: this would be their best-ever result.
A grand Union + SPD coalition could be the only viable route for parties wanting to keep the AfD out of government.
Note: our “high” intervals for both FDP and Linke have them inside the parliament
A grand Union + SPD coalition could be the only viable route for parties wanting to keep the AfD out of government.
Note: our “high” intervals for both FDP and Linke have them inside the parliament
January 17, 2025 at 11:38 AM
A major moment could be on the cards for the far-right AfD: this would be their best-ever result.
A grand Union + SPD coalition could be the only viable route for parties wanting to keep the AfD out of government.
Note: our “high” intervals for both FDP and Linke have them inside the parliament
A grand Union + SPD coalition could be the only viable route for parties wanting to keep the AfD out of government.
Note: our “high” intervals for both FDP and Linke have them inside the parliament
The @yougov.co.uk 2025 German election MRP model is now LIVE!
CDU/CSU (Union): 222 seats
AfD: 146
SPD: 115
Greens: 101
BSW: 45
FDP: 0
Linke: 0
Others: 1
Both the Union and the AfD up vs 2021. The governing coalition leader SPD are down. Both FDP and Die Linke fail to make the parliament.
CDU/CSU (Union): 222 seats
AfD: 146
SPD: 115
Greens: 101
BSW: 45
FDP: 0
Linke: 0
Others: 1
Both the Union and the AfD up vs 2021. The governing coalition leader SPD are down. Both FDP and Die Linke fail to make the parliament.
January 17, 2025 at 11:36 AM
The @yougov.co.uk 2025 German election MRP model is now LIVE!
CDU/CSU (Union): 222 seats
AfD: 146
SPD: 115
Greens: 101
BSW: 45
FDP: 0
Linke: 0
Others: 1
Both the Union and the AfD up vs 2021. The governing coalition leader SPD are down. Both FDP and Die Linke fail to make the parliament.
CDU/CSU (Union): 222 seats
AfD: 146
SPD: 115
Greens: 101
BSW: 45
FDP: 0
Linke: 0
Others: 1
Both the Union and the AfD up vs 2021. The governing coalition leader SPD are down. Both FDP and Die Linke fail to make the parliament.
🚨👀 Big news!
The @yougov.co.uk German political team are launching our first MRP model of the 2025 German Bundestag election later this week.
We'll be making detailed calls for every constituency, estimating regional list vote shares, and projecting how the parliament would shape up.
The @yougov.co.uk German political team are launching our first MRP model of the 2025 German Bundestag election later this week.
We'll be making detailed calls for every constituency, estimating regional list vote shares, and projecting how the parliament would shape up.
January 15, 2025 at 11:44 AM
🚨👀 Big news!
The @yougov.co.uk German political team are launching our first MRP model of the 2025 German Bundestag election later this week.
We'll be making detailed calls for every constituency, estimating regional list vote shares, and projecting how the parliament would shape up.
The @yougov.co.uk German political team are launching our first MRP model of the 2025 German Bundestag election later this week.
We'll be making detailed calls for every constituency, estimating regional list vote shares, and projecting how the parliament would shape up.
Been asked a lot lately about how Labour should respond re: $$$ donations, a potential Musk x Farage combo, Reform threats to Labour seats…
My response has largely been “stay calm, focus on government, use their most plentiful resource: time”
Because: stuff like this happens👇
My response has largely been “stay calm, focus on government, use their most plentiful resource: time”
Because: stuff like this happens👇
January 5, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Been asked a lot lately about how Labour should respond re: $$$ donations, a potential Musk x Farage combo, Reform threats to Labour seats…
My response has largely been “stay calm, focus on government, use their most plentiful resource: time”
Because: stuff like this happens👇
My response has largely been “stay calm, focus on government, use their most plentiful resource: time”
Because: stuff like this happens👇
There were really only two games in town for Labour’s Budget communication strategy: let it be seen as a tax raising budget, or let it be seen as a budget for public services.
Latest YouGov data suggests the former is cutting thru.
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Latest YouGov data suggests the former is cutting thru.
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
November 2, 2024 at 8:46 PM
There were really only two games in town for Labour’s Budget communication strategy: let it be seen as a tax raising budget, or let it be seen as a budget for public services.
Latest YouGov data suggests the former is cutting thru.
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Latest YouGov data suggests the former is cutting thru.
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Conservative Party conference reflections… the mood was so different from Labour - upbeat, happy, cheery. Surprising, after 4th July. The leadership beauty pageant, and Labour Gov struggles, driving it. Little engagement with reasons behind loss, tho. Thanks to everyone who had me on panels/media!
October 3, 2024 at 9:48 PM
Conservative Party conference reflections… the mood was so different from Labour - upbeat, happy, cheery. Surprising, after 4th July. The leadership beauty pageant, and Labour Gov struggles, driving it. Little engagement with reasons behind loss, tho. Thanks to everyone who had me on panels/media!