Nathaniel Haines
@natehaines.bsky.social
Paid to do
p(b | a) p(a)
p(a | b) = —————————
p(b)
Data Scientist | Computational Psychologist | Devout Bayesian
https://bayesianbeginnings.com/
p(b | a) p(a)
p(a | b) = —————————
p(b)
Data Scientist | Computational Psychologist | Devout Bayesian
https://bayesianbeginnings.com/
Pinned
Nathaniel Haines
@natehaines.bsky.social
· Sep 26
#115 Using Time Series to Estimate Uncertainty, with Nate Haines
Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch! My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses 1:1 Mentorship with me Our&nbs...
learnbayesstats.com
Using my first post to introduce myself with a Learning Bayesian Statistics podcast episode I was on recently! Come have a listen 🎧
learnbayesstats.com/episode/115-...
learnbayesstats.com/episode/115-...
hell yeah
TLDR; The PSF has made the decision to put our community and our shared diversity, equity, and inclusion values ahead of seeking $1.5M in new revenue. Please read and share. pyfound.blogspot.com/2025/10/NSF-...
🧵
🧵
The official home of the Python Programming Language
www.python.org
October 28, 2025 at 3:13 AM
hell yeah
Reposted by Nathaniel Haines
TLDR; The PSF has made the decision to put our community and our shared diversity, equity, and inclusion values ahead of seeking $1.5M in new revenue. Please read and share. pyfound.blogspot.com/2025/10/NSF-...
🧵
🧵
The official home of the Python Programming Language
www.python.org
October 27, 2025 at 2:47 PM
TLDR; The PSF has made the decision to put our community and our shared diversity, equity, and inclusion values ahead of seeking $1.5M in new revenue. Please read and share. pyfound.blogspot.com/2025/10/NSF-...
🧵
🧵
just got a restitution check for my auto deductible from back when I got kia boi'd a few years ago.. what a pleasant surprise
October 23, 2025 at 1:44 PM
just got a restitution check for my auto deductible from back when I got kia boi'd a few years ago.. what a pleasant surprise
awesome post, and couldn't agree more with the thesis
R is great because it "just works" most of the time
R is great because it "just works" most of the time
Really insightful post from Julie Tibshirani (spotted in LinkedIn, can't find on Bsky) reflecting on #rstats 's unique governance structure and what can be learned for other languages
jtibs.substack.com/p/if-all-the...
jtibs.substack.com/p/if-all-the...
If all the world were a monorepo
The R ecosystem and the case for extreme empathy in software maintenance
jtibs.substack.com
September 16, 2025 at 6:07 PM
awesome post, and couldn't agree more with the thesis
R is great because it "just works" most of the time
R is great because it "just works" most of the time
Job update! It has been a little over a month now, but I'm excited to share that I have joined Oscar Health, where I'm leading a team focused on our clinical risk adjustment process 🤓
August 19, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Job update! It has been a little over a month now, but I'm excited to share that I have joined Oscar Health, where I'm leading a team focused on our clinical risk adjustment process 🤓
wooahh! need to give this a read 🤓
Paper drop, for anyone interested in #metascience, #statistics, or #metaanalysis! @clintin.bsky.social and I show in a new paper in JASA that the P-curve, a popular forensic meta-analysis method, has deeply undesirable statistical properties. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... 1/?
August 8, 2025 at 7:26 PM
wooahh! need to give this a read 🤓
It has been quite a while since I posted my blog on the modeling the Dunning-Kruger effect. I intended for this to be the first of a series on modeling some classic effects in psychology/cognitive science.
Any recommendations for the second post in the series?
haines-lab.com/post/2021-01...
Any recommendations for the second post in the series?
haines-lab.com/post/2021-01...
A Series on Building Formal Models of Classic Psychological Effects: Part 1, the Dunning-Kruger Effect | Computational Psychology
Introduction The Dunning-Kruger effect is perhaps one of the most well-known effects in all of social psychology, defined as the phenomenon wherein people with low “objective” skill tend to over-estim...
haines-lab.com
June 20, 2025 at 1:14 PM
It has been quite a while since I posted my blog on the modeling the Dunning-Kruger effect. I intended for this to be the first of a series on modeling some classic effects in psychology/cognitive science.
Any recommendations for the second post in the series?
haines-lab.com/post/2021-01...
Any recommendations for the second post in the series?
haines-lab.com/post/2021-01...
last of us S2 E2, more like last episode amirite
April 23, 2025 at 2:37 AM
last of us S2 E2, more like last episode amirite
the moment some unintuitive simulation and empirical results finally click and you know what needs to be done 🤌
a feeling vibe coders can only dream of
a feeling vibe coders can only dream of
April 21, 2025 at 11:12 PM
the moment some unintuitive simulation and empirical results finally click and you know what needs to be done 🤌
a feeling vibe coders can only dream of
a feeling vibe coders can only dream of
SIX YEARS after the initial blog post, this paper is finally published.. what a wild ride
- the blog: bit.ly/3GbOqQa
- original tweet thread: x.com/Nate__Haines...
- published (open access) paper: doi.org/10.1037/met0...
- the blog: bit.ly/3GbOqQa
- original tweet thread: x.com/Nate__Haines...
- published (open access) paper: doi.org/10.1037/met0...
April 17, 2025 at 1:22 PM
SIX YEARS after the initial blog post, this paper is finally published.. what a wild ride
- the blog: bit.ly/3GbOqQa
- original tweet thread: x.com/Nate__Haines...
- published (open access) paper: doi.org/10.1037/met0...
- the blog: bit.ly/3GbOqQa
- original tweet thread: x.com/Nate__Haines...
- published (open access) paper: doi.org/10.1037/met0...
sounds like a black mirror episode
half of the posts on twitter remind me that the dead internet theory is very real
April 12, 2025 at 9:21 PM
sounds like a black mirror episode
Reposted by Nathaniel Haines
Using this as an excuse to share a great post by @natehaines.bsky.social on modelling and Dunning-Kruger.
haines-lab.com/post/2021-01...
haines-lab.com/post/2021-01...
April 5, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Using this as an excuse to share a great post by @natehaines.bsky.social on modelling and Dunning-Kruger.
haines-lab.com/post/2021-01...
haines-lab.com/post/2021-01...
Reposted by Nathaniel Haines
yes Yes YES! Feel your worries melt away as you watch the "Raccoon Whisperer" feed 25 loving raccoons in freezing weather. Clip below. Link to full 20 min video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ofp2...
April 4, 2025 at 6:59 AM
yes Yes YES! Feel your worries melt away as you watch the "Raccoon Whisperer" feed 25 loving raccoons in freezing weather. Clip below. Link to full 20 min video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ofp2...
Reposted by Nathaniel Haines
1/6 Hello Bluesky! 👋 Excited to join this community and share my new blog. First post: Using Bayesian hierarchical models to rescue "unreliable" cognitive tasks, with the dot-probe task as my case study. cogpsychreserve.netlify.app/posts/dotpro...
The Dot-Probe Task is Probably Fine – CogPsych Reserve
cogpsychreserve.netlify.app
March 7, 2025 at 9:14 AM
1/6 Hello Bluesky! 👋 Excited to join this community and share my new blog. First post: Using Bayesian hierarchical models to rescue "unreliable" cognitive tasks, with the dot-probe task as my case study. cogpsychreserve.netlify.app/posts/dotpro...
Reposted by Nathaniel Haines
I am surprised that many data scientists (perhaps without a stats background) do not recognize that CUPED is regression.
In this post, I show you why you can't spell CUPED without FWL
dpananos.github.io/posts/2025-0...
In this post, I show you why you can't spell CUPED without FWL
dpananos.github.io/posts/2025-0...
Demetri Pananos Ph.D - A Brief Tour of CUPED and Related Methods (Pt. 1)
dpananos.github.io
March 4, 2025 at 10:30 PM
I am surprised that many data scientists (perhaps without a stats background) do not recognize that CUPED is regression.
In this post, I show you why you can't spell CUPED without FWL
dpananos.github.io/posts/2025-0...
In this post, I show you why you can't spell CUPED without FWL
dpananos.github.io/posts/2025-0...
My team at Ledger just released `bermuda`, an open-source library for insurance triangle data manipulation! Check out the repo and docs below to see if it would be useful for your own work:
GitHub: github.com/LedgerInvest...
Docs: ledger-investing-bermuda-ledger.readthedocs-hosted.com/en/latest/
GitHub: github.com/LedgerInvest...
Docs: ledger-investing-bermuda-ledger.readthedocs-hosted.com/en/latest/
March 4, 2025 at 6:48 PM
My team at Ledger just released `bermuda`, an open-source library for insurance triangle data manipulation! Check out the repo and docs below to see if it would be useful for your own work:
GitHub: github.com/LedgerInvest...
Docs: ledger-investing-bermuda-ledger.readthedocs-hosted.com/en/latest/
GitHub: github.com/LedgerInvest...
Docs: ledger-investing-bermuda-ledger.readthedocs-hosted.com/en/latest/
Reposted by Nathaniel Haines
Please send me your fave blog post you ever wrote. Need some inspiration
February 23, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Please send me your fave blog post you ever wrote. Need some inspiration
The answer to this is that you get something that looks like:
results = {
10: 1.3,
25: 1.3,
50: 1.3,
75: 1.3,
90: 1.3,
}
Why? It is due to late binding of the iterator value (p) in the lambda function within a list/dict comprehension ☠️
results = {
10: 1.3,
25: 1.3,
50: 1.3,
75: 1.3,
90: 1.3,
}
Why? It is due to late binding of the iterator value (p) in the lambda function within a list/dict comprehension ☠️
time for a valentines day pop-quiz! without cheating, what will the output of `results` look like?
February 19, 2025 at 2:50 PM
The answer to this is that you get something that looks like:
results = {
10: 1.3,
25: 1.3,
50: 1.3,
75: 1.3,
90: 1.3,
}
Why? It is due to late binding of the iterator value (p) in the lambda function within a list/dict comprehension ☠️
results = {
10: 1.3,
25: 1.3,
50: 1.3,
75: 1.3,
90: 1.3,
}
Why? It is due to late binding of the iterator value (p) in the lambda function within a list/dict comprehension ☠️
must be no pythonistas in bsky huh
time for a valentines day pop-quiz! without cheating, what will the output of `results` look like?
February 15, 2025 at 3:35 PM
must be no pythonistas in bsky huh
time for a valentines day pop-quiz! without cheating, what will the output of `results` look like?
February 14, 2025 at 8:14 PM
time for a valentines day pop-quiz! without cheating, what will the output of `results` look like?
Reposted by Nathaniel Haines
humans put lightning inside rocks to make them count numbers and now i have to receive emails
February 12, 2025 at 11:00 PM
humans put lightning inside rocks to make them count numbers and now i have to receive emails
1/3 IMO, this method gets back to a more common way of testing parameter recovery. Back in the day, I would typically fit my model to data, generate posterior predictions using the fitted posterior means, then re-fit the model to the posterior predictions to see if I can recover those means well.
If you know simulation based calibration checking (SBC), you will enjoy our new paper "Posterior SBC: Simulation-Based Calibration Checking Conditional on Data" with Teemu Säilynoja, @marvinschmitt.com and @paulbuerkner.com
arxiv.org/abs/2502.03279 1/7
arxiv.org/abs/2502.03279 1/7
February 7, 2025 at 3:29 PM
1/3 IMO, this method gets back to a more common way of testing parameter recovery. Back in the day, I would typically fit my model to data, generate posterior predictions using the fitted posterior means, then re-fit the model to the posterior predictions to see if I can recover those means well.
In a funny turn of events, I have come to disagree with one of Paul Meehl's greatest pieces. After spending a couple years in the insurance industry, I can confidently say that actuaries use just as much subjective judgement as clinicians 🤖
January 7, 2025 at 7:02 PM
In a funny turn of events, I have come to disagree with one of Paul Meehl's greatest pieces. After spending a couple years in the insurance industry, I can confidently say that actuaries use just as much subjective judgement as clinicians 🤖