Michael Redmond
@mredmond88.bsky.social
Reposted by Michael Redmond
Comparing the two, we see a clear disconnect developing at the moment between U.S. producer prices for finished durable and nondurable consumer goods.
A similar gap developed early in the pandemic, when global supply chains were initially thrown into turmoil.
A similar gap developed early in the pandemic, when global supply chains were initially thrown into turmoil.
July 16, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Comparing the two, we see a clear disconnect developing at the moment between U.S. producer prices for finished durable and nondurable consumer goods.
A similar gap developed early in the pandemic, when global supply chains were initially thrown into turmoil.
A similar gap developed early in the pandemic, when global supply chains were initially thrown into turmoil.
Great podcast with @hpschneider.bsky.social on the ridiculous idea of nominating a “shadow Fed Chair”, and why it makes such little sense that it’s probably not going to happen, even in this administration open.spotify.com/episode/7a52...
'Shadow Fed chair'
Reuters Econ World · Episode
open.spotify.com
July 12, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Great podcast with @hpschneider.bsky.social on the ridiculous idea of nominating a “shadow Fed Chair”, and why it makes such little sense that it’s probably not going to happen, even in this administration open.spotify.com/episode/7a52...
Reposted by Michael Redmond
Manufacturing employment fell for the second month in a row.
July 3, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Manufacturing employment fell for the second month in a row.
The replies to this are so unhinged - do better @bsky.app community! The whole point of moving here is to elevate the dialogue
The Supreme Court's latest decision endangers women’s health care even further.
For many, Planned Parenthood is their only option for affordable health care.
Access to health care is a basic right—no matter what the MAGA court thinks.
@democrats.senate.gov will keep fighting.
For many, Planned Parenthood is their only option for affordable health care.
Access to health care is a basic right—no matter what the MAGA court thinks.
@democrats.senate.gov will keep fighting.
June 27, 2025 at 1:12 AM
The replies to this are so unhinged - do better @bsky.app community! The whole point of moving here is to elevate the dialogue
Reposted by Michael Redmond
Fed's Powell on tariff pass through: "Ultimately, the cost of the tariff has to be paid, and some of it will fall on the end consumer. We know that because that's what businesses say. That's what the data say from past.”
June 18, 2025 at 7:04 PM
Fed's Powell on tariff pass through: "Ultimately, the cost of the tariff has to be paid, and some of it will fall on the end consumer. We know that because that's what businesses say. That's what the data say from past.”
Denouncing Israel in Gaza while supporting their strikes in Iran, and possibly even a U.S. strike, seems like a reasonable position that an uncomfortably small portion of the population probably hold
June 19, 2025 at 1:36 AM
Denouncing Israel in Gaza while supporting their strikes in Iran, and possibly even a U.S. strike, seems like a reasonable position that an uncomfortably small portion of the population probably hold
Reposted by Michael Redmond
• Key Takeaway: Evidence of tariff-driven price increases remains minimal but with an effective tariff rate in the mid-teens, it is a matter of when, not if.
June 17, 2025 at 11:11 PM
• Key Takeaway: Evidence of tariff-driven price increases remains minimal but with an effective tariff rate in the mid-teens, it is a matter of when, not if.
Reposted by Michael Redmond
CBO posts dynamic score of House version of One Big Beautiful Bill. Conventional, static cost: Increases deficit by $2.41 trillion over 10 years. Dynamic estimate (increase in GDP, increase in net interest costs): $2.77 trillion over 10 years. www.cbo.gov/publication/...
H.R. 1, One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Dynamic Estimate)
As passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, 2025
www.cbo.gov
June 17, 2025 at 6:56 PM
CBO posts dynamic score of House version of One Big Beautiful Bill. Conventional, static cost: Increases deficit by $2.41 trillion over 10 years. Dynamic estimate (increase in GDP, increase in net interest costs): $2.77 trillion over 10 years. www.cbo.gov/publication/...
Quite the swing here from “Mexico will pay for the Wall” to having each American taxpayer chip in almost $300 for it. And you’d think Mar-a-Lago fees could go to security for the President who refused his $400k salary 🙄
June 16, 2025 at 3:34 AM
Quite the swing here from “Mexico will pay for the Wall” to having each American taxpayer chip in almost $300 for it. And you’d think Mar-a-Lago fees could go to security for the President who refused his $400k salary 🙄
Reposted by Michael Redmond
Thread:
1/ Why has the labor market for young people with Associate Degrees has been more resilient than the one for young people with Bachelor's Degrees?
At least part of the reason - not all of it - seems to be industry exposure.
1/ Why has the labor market for young people with Associate Degrees has been more resilient than the one for young people with Bachelor's Degrees?
At least part of the reason - not all of it - seems to be industry exposure.
June 13, 2025 at 9:58 PM
Thread:
1/ Why has the labor market for young people with Associate Degrees has been more resilient than the one for young people with Bachelor's Degrees?
At least part of the reason - not all of it - seems to be industry exposure.
1/ Why has the labor market for young people with Associate Degrees has been more resilient than the one for young people with Bachelor's Degrees?
At least part of the reason - not all of it - seems to be industry exposure.
Reposted by Michael Redmond
Political ideology continues to skew perceptions massively, with Democrats now expecting inflation to exceed 10% by June 2026 vs only 1.5% for Republicans.
June 13, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Political ideology continues to skew perceptions massively, with Democrats now expecting inflation to exceed 10% by June 2026 vs only 1.5% for Republicans.
Tariffs may not have showed up much in retail inflation through May, but import prices haven’t fallen through April like you’d expect if foreigners were “eating” the costs either
June 12, 2025 at 2:56 AM
Tariffs may not have showed up much in retail inflation through May, but import prices haven’t fallen through April like you’d expect if foreigners were “eating” the costs either
Reposted by Michael Redmond
So, Core Goods inflation would have accelerated in May if it weren't for the big drag from car prices.
June 11, 2025 at 5:54 PM
So, Core Goods inflation would have accelerated in May if it weren't for the big drag from car prices.
Rather than the “re-privatization” shift the Trump administration promised, the labor market is on track for being 50/50 across contracting/expanding industries, with healthcare being the single engine powering net hiring
Something that could be just noise but I obsess about:
The diffusion index, the percent of subindustries with positive job growth, declined to 50 percent. Going under 50 tends to be recessionary. Last summer it went under 50 as Sahm Rule was triggered, but it all bounced back. This time though? /3
The diffusion index, the percent of subindustries with positive job growth, declined to 50 percent. Going under 50 tends to be recessionary. Last summer it went under 50 as Sahm Rule was triggered, but it all bounced back. This time though? /3
June 9, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Rather than the “re-privatization” shift the Trump administration promised, the labor market is on track for being 50/50 across contracting/expanding industries, with healthcare being the single engine powering net hiring
Reposted by Michael Redmond
Newsom: These images are unacceptable. These people on the car. These aren’t peaceful protesters. They are playing right into Trump’s hand and they need to be called out. They need to be arrested but Donald Trump is the sponsor of these conditions
June 9, 2025 at 2:48 AM
Newsom: These images are unacceptable. These people on the car. These aren’t peaceful protesters. They are playing right into Trump’s hand and they need to be called out. They need to be arrested but Donald Trump is the sponsor of these conditions
Reposted by Michael Redmond
Some irony as well: While tariffs may spur some onshoring, concerns about retaliatory tariffs mean some businesses have an incentive to offshore U.S. production of goods destined for international markets.
June 4, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Some irony as well: While tariffs may spur some onshoring, concerns about retaliatory tariffs mean some businesses have an incentive to offshore U.S. production of goods destined for international markets.
Reposted by Michael Redmond
When he says CBO is unreliable, what he's referring to is that CBO didn't predict inflation would spike.
He'll say, "CBO said the Trump tax cuts would lose revenue, but revenues are at their pre-TCJA projections."
But ONLY if you don't adjust for inflation. If you do.... CBO was dead on target.
He'll say, "CBO said the Trump tax cuts would lose revenue, but revenues are at their pre-TCJA projections."
But ONLY if you don't adjust for inflation. If you do.... CBO was dead on target.
May 30, 2025 at 1:09 AM
When he says CBO is unreliable, what he's referring to is that CBO didn't predict inflation would spike.
He'll say, "CBO said the Trump tax cuts would lose revenue, but revenues are at their pre-TCJA projections."
But ONLY if you don't adjust for inflation. If you do.... CBO was dead on target.
He'll say, "CBO said the Trump tax cuts would lose revenue, but revenues are at their pre-TCJA projections."
But ONLY if you don't adjust for inflation. If you do.... CBO was dead on target.
Reposted by Michael Redmond
ICYMI: Joint Tax Committee dynamic score of (only) tax provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill: Would increase GDP growth rate by 0.03 pct pts from 1.83% in current-law baseline to 1.86%. www.jct.gov/publications...
May 25, 2025 at 12:10 PM
ICYMI: Joint Tax Committee dynamic score of (only) tax provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill: Would increase GDP growth rate by 0.03 pct pts from 1.83% in current-law baseline to 1.86%. www.jct.gov/publications...
Reposted by Michael Redmond
Was quite a moment, a sense we reached some kind of inflection point in U.S. history. You can now personally pay a U.S. president to gain an audience.
May 24, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Was quite a moment, a sense we reached some kind of inflection point in U.S. history. You can now personally pay a U.S. president to gain an audience.
Any time Apple CEO Tim Cook has to spend on lobbying Trump about tariffs, such as with a trip to Saudi Arabia, is time he is not spending on developing the world's next great product. Tariffs will sap productivity growth over time finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-l...
Trump’s ‘Little Problem’ With Tim Cook Is a Big One for Apple
(Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc. has become a frequent target for attacks by President Donald Trump, a factor that has held the stock back as other big tech companies have rebounded over the past month.Most ...
finance.yahoo.com
May 23, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Any time Apple CEO Tim Cook has to spend on lobbying Trump about tariffs, such as with a trip to Saudi Arabia, is time he is not spending on developing the world's next great product. Tariffs will sap productivity growth over time finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-l...
Teleworking in the federal government has now dropped below the private sector average despite public workers skewing towards the more educated, professional services sectors that telework the most. www.bls.gov/opub/ted/202...
May 23, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Teleworking in the federal government has now dropped below the private sector average despite public workers skewing towards the more educated, professional services sectors that telework the most. www.bls.gov/opub/ted/202...
Reposted by Michael Redmond
My introductory remarks on the panel discussion about the future of central bank operating systems at the @AtlantaFed's Financial Markets Conference
open.substack.com/pub/macroeco...
open.substack.com/pub/macroeco...
From Floors to Flexibility
A Conversation on the Rise of Demand-Driven Central Bank Operating Systems
open.substack.com
May 21, 2025 at 8:31 PM
My introductory remarks on the panel discussion about the future of central bank operating systems at the @AtlantaFed's Financial Markets Conference
open.substack.com/pub/macroeco...
open.substack.com/pub/macroeco...
Reposted by Michael Redmond
Credit standards were eased; much of that vintage of loans is showing stress but will not be renewed.
We saw the last in forbearance on student loans lapse on October 1. Sure enough, three months later, 90-day delinquencies soared.
We saw the last in forbearance on student loans lapse on October 1. Sure enough, three months later, 90-day delinquencies soared.
May 18, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Credit standards were eased; much of that vintage of loans is showing stress but will not be renewed.
We saw the last in forbearance on student loans lapse on October 1. Sure enough, three months later, 90-day delinquencies soared.
We saw the last in forbearance on student loans lapse on October 1. Sure enough, three months later, 90-day delinquencies soared.
Liberals should try the *hardest* to knock the 3% of long-term non-disabled, non-workers off Medicaid rolls or convince the broader population that healthcare is best delivered universally. Otherwise, it hurts the program’s reputation and that’s why states like Missouri struggled to expand coverage
May 17, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Liberals should try the *hardest* to knock the 3% of long-term non-disabled, non-workers off Medicaid rolls or convince the broader population that healthcare is best delivered universally. Otherwise, it hurts the program’s reputation and that’s why states like Missouri struggled to expand coverage