Mill Street Research
@millstreetresearch.com
Mill Street Research strategist Sam Burns, CFA, provides proprietary institutional research & tools on asset allocation, stock selection and the economy.
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Mill Street Research is an independent boutique investment research firm, founded near Boston in 2016 by Chief Strategist Sam Burns, CFA. The research covers asset allocation and global quantitative stock selection. 1/8
Mill Street Research is an independent boutique investment research firm, founded near Boston in 2016 by Chief Strategist Sam Burns, CFA. The research covers asset allocation and global quantitative stock selection. 1/8
Major indices are having a good pre-Thanksgiving day.
More notably, they have largely recovered most of the November declines, with the S&P 500 back to within 1% of its all-time high.
And small-caps have had a rebound as well amid the internal rotation, Russell 2000 also less than 2% from its peak.
More notably, they have largely recovered most of the November declines, with the S&P 500 back to within 1% of its all-time high.
And small-caps have had a rebound as well amid the internal rotation, Russell 2000 also less than 2% from its peak.
November 26, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Major indices are having a good pre-Thanksgiving day.
More notably, they have largely recovered most of the November declines, with the S&P 500 back to within 1% of its all-time high.
And small-caps have had a rebound as well amid the internal rotation, Russell 2000 also less than 2% from its peak.
More notably, they have largely recovered most of the November declines, with the S&P 500 back to within 1% of its all-time high.
And small-caps have had a rebound as well amid the internal rotation, Russell 2000 also less than 2% from its peak.
Good thread and comments about unusual labor data.
Today's data showed initial unemployment claims easing a bit and staying low, and continuing claims stable at a somewhat elevated level.
The Fed is likely also confused, hence the uncertainty about December FOMC. Market now 82% chance of a cut.
Today's data showed initial unemployment claims easing a bit and staying low, and continuing claims stable at a somewhat elevated level.
The Fed is likely also confused, hence the uncertainty about December FOMC. Market now 82% chance of a cut.
The disconnect between a rising unemployment rate and low initial jobless claims is strange — have companies changed the way they manage headcount over the past 5 years?
November 26, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Good thread and comments about unusual labor data.
Today's data showed initial unemployment claims easing a bit and staying low, and continuing claims stable at a somewhat elevated level.
The Fed is likely also confused, hence the uncertainty about December FOMC. Market now 82% chance of a cut.
Today's data showed initial unemployment claims easing a bit and staying low, and continuing claims stable at a somewhat elevated level.
The Fed is likely also confused, hence the uncertainty about December FOMC. Market now 82% chance of a cut.
Small-caps had a big day, and big Tech recovered from its morning dip as other stocks outweighed the decline in NVDA today.
Value outperformed Growth, continuing a choppy trend in place since Oct. 29th.
Move was broad, as 7 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were up more than 1% today.
Value outperformed Growth, continuing a choppy trend in place since Oct. 29th.
Move was broad, as 7 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were up more than 1% today.
November 25, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Small-caps had a big day, and big Tech recovered from its morning dip as other stocks outweighed the decline in NVDA today.
Value outperformed Growth, continuing a choppy trend in place since Oct. 29th.
Move was broad, as 7 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were up more than 1% today.
Value outperformed Growth, continuing a choppy trend in place since Oct. 29th.
Move was broad, as 7 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were up more than 1% today.
This is the chart that is getting a lot of attention lately: GOOGL vs NVDA, a large divergence now favoring GOOGL after moving together previously.
News of Meta and Anthropic using Google chips (TPUs) has driven GOOGL up and weighed on NVDA. Alphabet also benefiting from its latest Gemini AI model.
News of Meta and Anthropic using Google chips (TPUs) has driven GOOGL up and weighed on NVDA. Alphabet also benefiting from its latest Gemini AI model.
November 25, 2025 at 4:55 PM
This is the chart that is getting a lot of attention lately: GOOGL vs NVDA, a large divergence now favoring GOOGL after moving together previously.
News of Meta and Anthropic using Google chips (TPUs) has driven GOOGL up and weighed on NVDA. Alphabet also benefiting from its latest Gemini AI model.
News of Meta and Anthropic using Google chips (TPUs) has driven GOOGL up and weighed on NVDA. Alphabet also benefiting from its latest Gemini AI model.
Equity indices are mixed but most stocks are up today, as NVIDIA is the big drag on the NASDAQ and S&P 500.
More evidence of rotation between Big Tech and everything else, but also within big Tech: Apple, Meta, and Amazon are up today.
Health Care the best sector so far today, led by LLY and MRK.
More evidence of rotation between Big Tech and everything else, but also within big Tech: Apple, Meta, and Amazon are up today.
Health Care the best sector so far today, led by LLY and MRK.
November 25, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Equity indices are mixed but most stocks are up today, as NVIDIA is the big drag on the NASDAQ and S&P 500.
More evidence of rotation between Big Tech and everything else, but also within big Tech: Apple, Meta, and Amazon are up today.
Health Care the best sector so far today, led by LLY and MRK.
More evidence of rotation between Big Tech and everything else, but also within big Tech: Apple, Meta, and Amazon are up today.
Health Care the best sector so far today, led by LLY and MRK.
It was a pleasure to join David Lin again for a wide-ranging interview.
We covered lots of topics, including market rotation, the Fed, AI/capex, labor market, inflation and more.
Check it out here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=u23e...
We covered lots of topics, including market rotation, the Fed, AI/capex, labor market, inflation and more.
Check it out here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=u23e...
This Market Rotation Could Shock Investors in 2026 | Sam Burns
YouTube video by David Lin
www.youtube.com
November 24, 2025 at 5:34 PM
It was a pleasure to join David Lin again for a wide-ranging interview.
We covered lots of topics, including market rotation, the Fed, AI/capex, labor market, inflation and more.
Check it out here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=u23e...
We covered lots of topics, including market rotation, the Fed, AI/capex, labor market, inflation and more.
Check it out here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=u23e...
FYI -- November CPI due Dec. 18th, October CPI gone forever, as shutdown prevented October data collection.
Apparently BLS will be mostly back on track by mid-December to release the November CPI and whatever data from October is available.
Apparently BLS will be mostly back on track by mid-December to release the November CPI and whatever data from October is available.
The November 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released Thursday, December 18, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Survey data for October 2025 cannot be collected retroactively & will not be published. Available non-survey data for October will be published with the November CPI.
November 21, 2025 at 8:22 PM
FYI -- November CPI due Dec. 18th, October CPI gone forever, as shutdown prevented October data collection.
Apparently BLS will be mostly back on track by mid-December to release the November CPI and whatever data from October is available.
Apparently BLS will be mostly back on track by mid-December to release the November CPI and whatever data from October is available.
Still a very volatile day, with equities now solidly in the green after a big reversal in NVIDIA prompted by news suggesting the Trump administration is considering allowing it to sell its H200 chips in China. Small-caps up 3%.
The big drag from Oracle has not reversed much though.
The big drag from Oracle has not reversed much though.
November 21, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Still a very volatile day, with equities now solidly in the green after a big reversal in NVIDIA prompted by news suggesting the Trump administration is considering allowing it to sell its H200 chips in China. Small-caps up 3%.
The big drag from Oracle has not reversed much though.
The big drag from Oracle has not reversed much though.
Volatile day in stocks so far, with weakness in former darlings Oracle and NVIDIA being somewhat offset by increased hopes for a December Fed rate cut.
So the broader market is holding up while NASDAQ-100 is lagging, and bond yields are lower today.
So the broader market is holding up while NASDAQ-100 is lagging, and bond yields are lower today.
November 21, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Volatile day in stocks so far, with weakness in former darlings Oracle and NVIDIA being somewhat offset by increased hopes for a December Fed rate cut.
So the broader market is holding up while NASDAQ-100 is lagging, and bond yields are lower today.
So the broader market is holding up while NASDAQ-100 is lagging, and bond yields are lower today.
Dramatic moves today as the boost from NVIDIA's good earnings news has completely reversed, both for NVDA's own stock and for the broader market.
The culprit is again heavy selling in crypto pushing stocks down, with Bitcoin plunging further to new 7-month lows and down -30% since early October.
The culprit is again heavy selling in crypto pushing stocks down, with Bitcoin plunging further to new 7-month lows and down -30% since early October.
November 20, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Dramatic moves today as the boost from NVIDIA's good earnings news has completely reversed, both for NVDA's own stock and for the broader market.
The culprit is again heavy selling in crypto pushing stocks down, with Bitcoin plunging further to new 7-month lows and down -30% since early October.
The culprit is again heavy selling in crypto pushing stocks down, with Bitcoin plunging further to new 7-month lows and down -30% since early October.
We got a partial catch-up economic data dump today, with the September employment data being the main thing, along with previous weekly jobless claims.
September payrolls were up +119K, above expectations, but the prior month was revised lower.
Unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%.
September payrolls were up +119K, above expectations, but the prior month was revised lower.
Unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%.
November 20, 2025 at 4:23 PM
We got a partial catch-up economic data dump today, with the September employment data being the main thing, along with previous weekly jobless claims.
September payrolls were up +119K, above expectations, but the prior month was revised lower.
Unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%.
September payrolls were up +119K, above expectations, but the prior month was revised lower.
Unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%.
Stock prices, mostly Tech, getting dragged around by the movements in Bitcoin/crypto today.
Bitcoin is down further to about $92K after last week's slide, and weighing on sentiment.
Investors also waiting for NVIDIA's earnings report due Wednesday. NVDA down -2.5% today and off 10% from its peak.
Bitcoin is down further to about $92K after last week's slide, and weighing on sentiment.
Investors also waiting for NVIDIA's earnings report due Wednesday. NVDA down -2.5% today and off 10% from its peak.
November 17, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Stock prices, mostly Tech, getting dragged around by the movements in Bitcoin/crypto today.
Bitcoin is down further to about $92K after last week's slide, and weighing on sentiment.
Investors also waiting for NVIDIA's earnings report due Wednesday. NVDA down -2.5% today and off 10% from its peak.
Bitcoin is down further to about $92K after last week's slide, and weighing on sentiment.
Investors also waiting for NVIDIA's earnings report due Wednesday. NVDA down -2.5% today and off 10% from its peak.
More tariff news and activity as there seems to be an agreement to reduce the tariff on Switzerland to 15% from 39%, though of course there are no clear details.
This comes while the Supreme Court is deciding whether such tariffs are legal at all, and banks are trading claims on tariff refunds.
This comes while the Supreme Court is deciding whether such tariffs are legal at all, and banks are trading claims on tariff refunds.
November 14, 2025 at 5:20 PM
More tariff news and activity as there seems to be an agreement to reduce the tariff on Switzerland to 15% from 39%, though of course there are no clear details.
This comes while the Supreme Court is deciding whether such tariffs are legal at all, and banks are trading claims on tariff refunds.
This comes while the Supreme Court is deciding whether such tariffs are legal at all, and banks are trading claims on tariff refunds.
While headlines are saying markets are down today because of Fed worries or economic data, it seems more like the tech-related stocks are following crypto (bitcoin) down in a general risk off move accompanied by internal rotation to formerly lagging sectors.
November 13, 2025 at 8:59 PM
While headlines are saying markets are down today because of Fed worries or economic data, it seems more like the tech-related stocks are following crypto (bitcoin) down in a general risk off move accompanied by internal rotation to formerly lagging sectors.
Down day in stocks with big Tech and Russell 2000 down around 2%ish, but broader market holding up better with Equal Weight S&P 500 down only -0.5%.
More rotation as former laggards Health Care and Energy are up along with a mild gain in Staples.
Crypto weak again today also a factor.
More rotation as former laggards Health Care and Energy are up along with a mild gain in Staples.
Crypto weak again today also a factor.
November 13, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Down day in stocks with big Tech and Russell 2000 down around 2%ish, but broader market holding up better with Equal Weight S&P 500 down only -0.5%.
More rotation as former laggards Health Care and Energy are up along with a mild gain in Staples.
Crypto weak again today also a factor.
More rotation as former laggards Health Care and Energy are up along with a mild gain in Staples.
Crypto weak again today also a factor.
Confirmation from the former BLS commissioner that there could be some jobs data from the establishment survey (nonfarm payrolls) gathered retroactively for October, but not for the household survey (unemployment rate) or CPI.
BLS has been damaged badly by DOGE and shutdown, trying to recover.
BLS has been damaged badly by DOGE and shutdown, trying to recover.
Allow me to translate. October data was not collected as field staff were all furloughed. In some cases, that data can be recovered from businesses. In other cases, the window to collect the data has closed (consumer prices, labor force status) and the data hole may be permanent.
WHITE HOUSE: FEDERAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM MAY HAVE PERMANENTLY BEEN DAMAGED WHITE HOUSE: OCTOBER JOBS REPORTS LIKELY NEVER RELEASED
November 13, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Confirmation from the former BLS commissioner that there could be some jobs data from the establishment survey (nonfarm payrolls) gathered retroactively for October, but not for the household survey (unemployment rate) or CPI.
BLS has been damaged badly by DOGE and shutdown, trying to recover.
BLS has been damaged badly by DOGE and shutdown, trying to recover.
White House said we likely won't ever get October employment or CPI data, as no one was around to collect much of it: jobs data from companies could possibly be backfilled, but household and CPI surveys can’t be.
Stock indices are pretty quiet today, with the broader market doing a bit better.
Stock indices are pretty quiet today, with the broader market doing a bit better.
November 12, 2025 at 8:41 PM
White House said we likely won't ever get October employment or CPI data, as no one was around to collect much of it: jobs data from companies could possibly be backfilled, but household and CPI surveys can’t be.
Stock indices are pretty quiet today, with the broader market doing a bit better.
Stock indices are pretty quiet today, with the broader market doing a bit better.
Pretty significant drop in crude oil prices today, reversing yesterday's gains, as signs of a growing surplus of oil are appearing.
Futures prices touched contango today (current prices below future prices), often a warning sign of a near-term glut.
Prices now at 3-week lows.
Futures prices touched contango today (current prices below future prices), often a warning sign of a near-term glut.
Prices now at 3-week lows.
November 12, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Pretty significant drop in crude oil prices today, reversing yesterday's gains, as signs of a growing surplus of oil are appearing.
Futures prices touched contango today (current prices below future prices), often a warning sign of a near-term glut.
Prices now at 3-week lows.
Futures prices touched contango today (current prices below future prices), often a warning sign of a near-term glut.
Prices now at 3-week lows.
NVIDIA's stock has been more volatile lately, and it matters because of its nearly $5 trillion market cap.
Our work shows that analysts are still raising EPS estimates ahead of next week's earnings report, which is usually a good sign and suggests dip buyers will continue.
Our work shows that analysts are still raising EPS estimates ahead of next week's earnings report, which is usually a good sign and suggests dip buyers will continue.
November 11, 2025 at 7:31 PM
NVIDIA's stock has been more volatile lately, and it matters because of its nearly $5 trillion market cap.
Our work shows that analysts are still raising EPS estimates ahead of next week's earnings report, which is usually a good sign and suggests dip buyers will continue.
Our work shows that analysts are still raising EPS estimates ahead of next week's earnings report, which is usually a good sign and suggests dip buyers will continue.
One of those days when one stock has a notable impact on the indices.
The -2% drop in NVIDIA is mostly responsible for the mild decline in the NASDAQ today, and is weighing on the S&P 500.
The rest of the market is mostly higher: 9 of 11 sectors are up today.
The -2% drop in NVIDIA is mostly responsible for the mild decline in the NASDAQ today, and is weighing on the S&P 500.
The rest of the market is mostly higher: 9 of 11 sectors are up today.
November 11, 2025 at 7:23 PM
One of those days when one stock has a notable impact on the indices.
The -2% drop in NVIDIA is mostly responsible for the mild decline in the NASDAQ today, and is weighing on the S&P 500.
The rest of the market is mostly higher: 9 of 11 sectors are up today.
The -2% drop in NVIDIA is mostly responsible for the mild decline in the NASDAQ today, and is weighing on the S&P 500.
The rest of the market is mostly higher: 9 of 11 sectors are up today.
Without the usual government employment data, economists and the private sector (like Goldman Sachs) are trying to fill the gap.
ADP is now producing weekly estimates of rolling 4-week employment changes, and said today US firms cut 11K jobs/week over the last 4 weeks, similar to Goldman.
ADP is now producing weekly estimates of rolling 4-week employment changes, and said today US firms cut 11K jobs/week over the last 4 weeks, similar to Goldman.
(WSJ) - U.S. nonfarm payrolls likely shrunk by 50,000 roles in October, economists at Goldman Sachs said.
@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
November 11, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Without the usual government employment data, economists and the private sector (like Goldman Sachs) are trying to fill the gap.
ADP is now producing weekly estimates of rolling 4-week employment changes, and said today US firms cut 11K jobs/week over the last 4 weeks, similar to Goldman.
ADP is now producing weekly estimates of rolling 4-week employment changes, and said today US firms cut 11K jobs/week over the last 4 weeks, similar to Goldman.
Back to risk-on and Big Tech leadership in stocks today after last week's pullback and Growth-to-Value rotation.
Some interest in the Senate moves to end the shutdown, though it may take a little longer for that to happen given that the House is still not in session.
Some interest in the Senate moves to end the shutdown, though it may take a little longer for that to happen given that the House is still not in session.
November 10, 2025 at 8:23 PM
Back to risk-on and Big Tech leadership in stocks today after last week's pullback and Growth-to-Value rotation.
Some interest in the Senate moves to end the shutdown, though it may take a little longer for that to happen given that the House is still not in session.
Some interest in the Senate moves to end the shutdown, though it may take a little longer for that to happen given that the House is still not in session.
Something of a reversal day in stocks, opening down and then rebounding in the afternoon.
It was also a sector reversal day, as Tech and Comm. Services were the only sectors down, everything else was up, led by Energy, Utilities, and Real Estate, i.e., Value and small/mid-caps.
It was also a sector reversal day, as Tech and Comm. Services were the only sectors down, everything else was up, led by Energy, Utilities, and Real Estate, i.e., Value and small/mid-caps.
November 7, 2025 at 9:28 PM
Something of a reversal day in stocks, opening down and then rebounding in the afternoon.
It was also a sector reversal day, as Tech and Comm. Services were the only sectors down, everything else was up, led by Energy, Utilities, and Real Estate, i.e., Value and small/mid-caps.
It was also a sector reversal day, as Tech and Comm. Services were the only sectors down, everything else was up, led by Energy, Utilities, and Real Estate, i.e., Value and small/mid-caps.
Well, it's the first Friday of the month and for a second consecutive month we are not getting the US labor report due to the longest-ever government shutdown.
The ADP data on private sector employment shows very little growth in recent months, but labor supply is also lower due to immigration.
The ADP data on private sector employment shows very little growth in recent months, but labor supply is also lower due to immigration.
November 7, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Well, it's the first Friday of the month and for a second consecutive month we are not getting the US labor report due to the longest-ever government shutdown.
The ADP data on private sector employment shows very little growth in recent months, but labor supply is also lower due to immigration.
The ADP data on private sector employment shows very little growth in recent months, but labor supply is also lower due to immigration.
The UBS Profitless Tech index continues to weaken, now down about -14% from its mid-September peak and starting to threaten its trend.
This is one proxy for the most speculative Tech stocks in the roughly $1 - 20B market cap range.
The NASDAQ-100 is only down -3.8% from its peak a week ago.
This is one proxy for the most speculative Tech stocks in the roughly $1 - 20B market cap range.
The NASDAQ-100 is only down -3.8% from its peak a week ago.
November 6, 2025 at 8:51 PM
The UBS Profitless Tech index continues to weaken, now down about -14% from its mid-September peak and starting to threaten its trend.
This is one proxy for the most speculative Tech stocks in the roughly $1 - 20B market cap range.
The NASDAQ-100 is only down -3.8% from its peak a week ago.
This is one proxy for the most speculative Tech stocks in the roughly $1 - 20B market cap range.
The NASDAQ-100 is only down -3.8% from its peak a week ago.