Mill Street Research
@millstreetresearch.com
Mill Street Research strategist Sam Burns, CFA, provides proprietary institutional research & tools on asset allocation, stock selection and the economy.
Unlike Bitcoin, earnings estimates for the next 12 months for the NASDAQ-100 index continue to rise steadily.
The 2026 estimate is currently about $892 per share, reflecting growth of about 17%, with the P/E on that estimate at 28x. High but not extreme if you believe the estimates and their trend.
The 2026 estimate is currently about $892 per share, reflecting growth of about 17%, with the P/E on that estimate at 28x. High but not extreme if you believe the estimates and their trend.
November 17, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Unlike Bitcoin, earnings estimates for the next 12 months for the NASDAQ-100 index continue to rise steadily.
The 2026 estimate is currently about $892 per share, reflecting growth of about 17%, with the P/E on that estimate at 28x. High but not extreme if you believe the estimates and their trend.
The 2026 estimate is currently about $892 per share, reflecting growth of about 17%, with the P/E on that estimate at 28x. High but not extreme if you believe the estimates and their trend.
According to Bloomberg's reporting, prices for future tariff refunds for importers are still trading in the 10-25 cents/dollar range, suggesting uncertainty is still high about whether refunds ever actually appear and when.
Only IEEPA tariffs are being decided, as shown in Bloomberg's graphic.
Only IEEPA tariffs are being decided, as shown in Bloomberg's graphic.
November 14, 2025 at 5:20 PM
According to Bloomberg's reporting, prices for future tariff refunds for importers are still trading in the 10-25 cents/dollar range, suggesting uncertainty is still high about whether refunds ever actually appear and when.
Only IEEPA tariffs are being decided, as shown in Bloomberg's graphic.
Only IEEPA tariffs are being decided, as shown in Bloomberg's graphic.
The UBS Speculative Growth index down -8.4% today, and down -34% from its Oct. 15th peak.
"The basket tracks 80 stocks tried to early stage technological ventures like Quantum Computing, Space Exploration, Autonomous Driving, Rare Earths, Drones, Crypto, Nuclear, and Robots."
"The basket tracks 80 stocks tried to early stage technological ventures like Quantum Computing, Space Exploration, Autonomous Driving, Rare Earths, Drones, Crypto, Nuclear, and Robots."
November 13, 2025 at 8:59 PM
The UBS Speculative Growth index down -8.4% today, and down -34% from its Oct. 15th peak.
"The basket tracks 80 stocks tried to early stage technological ventures like Quantum Computing, Space Exploration, Autonomous Driving, Rare Earths, Drones, Crypto, Nuclear, and Robots."
"The basket tracks 80 stocks tried to early stage technological ventures like Quantum Computing, Space Exploration, Autonomous Driving, Rare Earths, Drones, Crypto, Nuclear, and Robots."
Earlier today OPEC said they now see a surplus for crude oil rather than a deficit in Q3 on higher than expected US and other non-OPEC production.
Refiners are also using less crude lately due to maintenance and crude inventories have risen.
However, refining margins are up sharply recently.
Refiners are also using less crude lately due to maintenance and crude inventories have risen.
However, refining margins are up sharply recently.
November 12, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Earlier today OPEC said they now see a surplus for crude oil rather than a deficit in Q3 on higher than expected US and other non-OPEC production.
Refiners are also using less crude lately due to maintenance and crude inventories have risen.
However, refining margins are up sharply recently.
Refiners are also using less crude lately due to maintenance and crude inventories have risen.
However, refining margins are up sharply recently.
Pretty significant drop in crude oil prices today, reversing yesterday's gains, as signs of a growing surplus of oil are appearing.
Futures prices touched contango today (current prices below future prices), often a warning sign of a near-term glut.
Prices now at 3-week lows.
Futures prices touched contango today (current prices below future prices), often a warning sign of a near-term glut.
Prices now at 3-week lows.
November 12, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Pretty significant drop in crude oil prices today, reversing yesterday's gains, as signs of a growing surplus of oil are appearing.
Futures prices touched contango today (current prices below future prices), often a warning sign of a near-term glut.
Prices now at 3-week lows.
Futures prices touched contango today (current prices below future prices), often a warning sign of a near-term glut.
Prices now at 3-week lows.
NVIDIA's stock has been more volatile lately, and it matters because of its nearly $5 trillion market cap.
Our work shows that analysts are still raising EPS estimates ahead of next week's earnings report, which is usually a good sign and suggests dip buyers will continue.
Our work shows that analysts are still raising EPS estimates ahead of next week's earnings report, which is usually a good sign and suggests dip buyers will continue.
November 11, 2025 at 7:31 PM
NVIDIA's stock has been more volatile lately, and it matters because of its nearly $5 trillion market cap.
Our work shows that analysts are still raising EPS estimates ahead of next week's earnings report, which is usually a good sign and suggests dip buyers will continue.
Our work shows that analysts are still raising EPS estimates ahead of next week's earnings report, which is usually a good sign and suggests dip buyers will continue.
Private sources have been trying to construct data to fill in the gaps, but it is noisier and limited.
Bloomberg has made an alt-data labor market index from 19 inputs that has sort of tracked the Fed's Labor Conditions index. It ticked up slightly at the latest update but remains in slowing mode.
Bloomberg has made an alt-data labor market index from 19 inputs that has sort of tracked the Fed's Labor Conditions index. It ticked up slightly at the latest update but remains in slowing mode.
November 7, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Private sources have been trying to construct data to fill in the gaps, but it is noisier and limited.
Bloomberg has made an alt-data labor market index from 19 inputs that has sort of tracked the Fed's Labor Conditions index. It ticked up slightly at the latest update but remains in slowing mode.
Bloomberg has made an alt-data labor market index from 19 inputs that has sort of tracked the Fed's Labor Conditions index. It ticked up slightly at the latest update but remains in slowing mode.
The UBS Profitless Tech index continues to weaken, now down about -14% from its mid-September peak and starting to threaten its trend.
This is one proxy for the most speculative Tech stocks in the roughly $1 - 20B market cap range.
The NASDAQ-100 is only down -3.8% from its peak a week ago.
This is one proxy for the most speculative Tech stocks in the roughly $1 - 20B market cap range.
The NASDAQ-100 is only down -3.8% from its peak a week ago.
November 6, 2025 at 8:51 PM
The UBS Profitless Tech index continues to weaken, now down about -14% from its mid-September peak and starting to threaten its trend.
This is one proxy for the most speculative Tech stocks in the roughly $1 - 20B market cap range.
The NASDAQ-100 is only down -3.8% from its peak a week ago.
This is one proxy for the most speculative Tech stocks in the roughly $1 - 20B market cap range.
The NASDAQ-100 is only down -3.8% from its peak a week ago.
Fiserv (FI) in the news today with a historic plunge of about -40% after it slashed earnings guidance and announced major changes to leadership.
As it turns out, our MAER stock selection tool showed negative trends in analyst estimate revisions and relative returns for months before today's news.
As it turns out, our MAER stock selection tool showed negative trends in analyst estimate revisions and relative returns for months before today's news.
October 29, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Fiserv (FI) in the news today with a historic plunge of about -40% after it slashed earnings guidance and announced major changes to leadership.
As it turns out, our MAER stock selection tool showed negative trends in analyst estimate revisions and relative returns for months before today's news.
As it turns out, our MAER stock selection tool showed negative trends in analyst estimate revisions and relative returns for months before today's news.
Notably, the S&P 500 High Beta index (volatile, but large-cap and almost all profitable) is holding up much better.
Technology is 42% of the High Beta Index and Comm. Services is 5.3%, though today's big loser of Netflix is not in it, nor is Apple, but many Semis including Texas Instruments are.
Technology is 42% of the High Beta Index and Comm. Services is 5.3%, though today's big loser of Netflix is not in it, nor is Apple, but many Semis including Texas Instruments are.
October 22, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Notably, the S&P 500 High Beta index (volatile, but large-cap and almost all profitable) is holding up much better.
Technology is 42% of the High Beta Index and Comm. Services is 5.3%, though today's big loser of Netflix is not in it, nor is Apple, but many Semis including Texas Instruments are.
Technology is 42% of the High Beta Index and Comm. Services is 5.3%, though today's big loser of Netflix is not in it, nor is Apple, but many Semis including Texas Instruments are.
Lots of junky momentum-driven stocks are getting hit today in the momentum unwind, like those in the UBS Profitless Tech index. It is down -3.4% today, and is currently only up about 4.7% year-to-date (vs 13.5% for the S&P 500).
October 22, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Lots of junky momentum-driven stocks are getting hit today in the momentum unwind, like those in the UBS Profitless Tech index. It is down -3.4% today, and is currently only up about 4.7% year-to-date (vs 13.5% for the S&P 500).
Stocks having a good day today after a choppy week last week.
While they are bouncing today, some of the super-high-risk stocks with little or no fundamentals have been lagging, while big-cap Tech/AI is doing well (chart, data through Friday).
Small-caps also bouncing pretty good today.
While they are bouncing today, some of the super-high-risk stocks with little or no fundamentals have been lagging, while big-cap Tech/AI is doing well (chart, data through Friday).
Small-caps also bouncing pretty good today.
October 20, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Stocks having a good day today after a choppy week last week.
While they are bouncing today, some of the super-high-risk stocks with little or no fundamentals have been lagging, while big-cap Tech/AI is doing well (chart, data through Friday).
Small-caps also bouncing pretty good today.
While they are bouncing today, some of the super-high-risk stocks with little or no fundamentals have been lagging, while big-cap Tech/AI is doing well (chart, data through Friday).
Small-caps also bouncing pretty good today.
The combination of a short-term rally without analyst estimate support and higher valuations has pushed AMAT into the bottom quintile of our proprietary MAER ranking for S&P 500 stocks.
A much higher-ranked stock in that space would be Lam Research (LRCX), where estimates are rising broadly.
A much higher-ranked stock in that space would be Lam Research (LRCX), where estimates are rising broadly.
October 3, 2025 at 2:47 PM
The combination of a short-term rally without analyst estimate support and higher valuations has pushed AMAT into the bottom quintile of our proprietary MAER ranking for S&P 500 stocks.
A much higher-ranked stock in that space would be Lam Research (LRCX), where estimates are rising broadly.
A much higher-ranked stock in that space would be Lam Research (LRCX), where estimates are rising broadly.
Our work shows that the big rally has occurred despite analysts remaining net negative on their earnings estimate revisions: of the 31 analysts, 44% net are (still) lowering EPS forecasts.
So the rally has mostly just pushed the P/E up sharply after a year of relative multiple contraction.
So the rally has mostly just pushed the P/E up sharply after a year of relative multiple contraction.
October 3, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Our work shows that the big rally has occurred despite analysts remaining net negative on their earnings estimate revisions: of the 31 analysts, 44% net are (still) lowering EPS forecasts.
So the rally has mostly just pushed the P/E up sharply after a year of relative multiple contraction.
So the rally has mostly just pushed the P/E up sharply after a year of relative multiple contraction.
The S&P 1500 Pharmaceuticals index is now up 9% in two days, a big move for that industry.
It is finally back to pre-Liberation Day levels, recovering part of its stark underperformance since April.
An ongoing reminder that Trump policy chaos remains a significant market driver for some areas.
It is finally back to pre-Liberation Day levels, recovering part of its stark underperformance since April.
An ongoing reminder that Trump policy chaos remains a significant market driver for some areas.
October 1, 2025 at 5:34 PM
The S&P 1500 Pharmaceuticals index is now up 9% in two days, a big move for that industry.
It is finally back to pre-Liberation Day levels, recovering part of its stark underperformance since April.
An ongoing reminder that Trump policy chaos remains a significant market driver for some areas.
It is finally back to pre-Liberation Day levels, recovering part of its stark underperformance since April.
An ongoing reminder that Trump policy chaos remains a significant market driver for some areas.
Markets mildly lower today, with a split in the mega-caps again.
Indices weighed down by AMZN, META, GOOGL, JPM, and TSLA, and helped mostly by NVDA and big Pharma.
Watching the UBS "Profitless Tech" index for fun and it's very weak (-2.8%) today, and down about -8% from the mid-September peak.
Indices weighed down by AMZN, META, GOOGL, JPM, and TSLA, and helped mostly by NVDA and big Pharma.
Watching the UBS "Profitless Tech" index for fun and it's very weak (-2.8%) today, and down about -8% from the mid-September peak.
September 30, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Markets mildly lower today, with a split in the mega-caps again.
Indices weighed down by AMZN, META, GOOGL, JPM, and TSLA, and helped mostly by NVDA and big Pharma.
Watching the UBS "Profitless Tech" index for fun and it's very weak (-2.8%) today, and down about -8% from the mid-September peak.
Indices weighed down by AMZN, META, GOOGL, JPM, and TSLA, and helped mostly by NVDA and big Pharma.
Watching the UBS "Profitless Tech" index for fun and it's very weak (-2.8%) today, and down about -8% from the mid-September peak.
The weak US dollar has limited the relative performance of US stocks vs ex-US stocks in US dollar terms compared to returns in local currency terms in recent months.
September 16, 2025 at 3:11 PM
The weak US dollar has limited the relative performance of US stocks vs ex-US stocks in US dollar terms compared to returns in local currency terms in recent months.
The inflation data for the 8 months of this year (under Trump) tell us a few things:
* Tariffs are indeed coming through steadily in goods prices, now well above "normal" (ex COVID) levels
* Services inflation is still (mostly) slowing but elevated.
* Tariffs are indeed coming through steadily in goods prices, now well above "normal" (ex COVID) levels
* Services inflation is still (mostly) slowing but elevated.
September 11, 2025 at 1:19 PM
The inflation data for the 8 months of this year (under Trump) tell us a few things:
* Tariffs are indeed coming through steadily in goods prices, now well above "normal" (ex COVID) levels
* Services inflation is still (mostly) slowing but elevated.
* Tariffs are indeed coming through steadily in goods prices, now well above "normal" (ex COVID) levels
* Services inflation is still (mostly) slowing but elevated.
Economic data and market response highlight where market's mind is at.
CPI was mostly in line with expectations or marginally above at 0.4% headline and 0.3% core. Headline rose to 2.9% Y/Y and core held at 3.1%
But unemployment claims jumped to 263K, pushing the 4-week average to 240.5K.
CPI was mostly in line with expectations or marginally above at 0.4% headline and 0.3% core. Headline rose to 2.9% Y/Y and core held at 3.1%
But unemployment claims jumped to 263K, pushing the 4-week average to 240.5K.
September 11, 2025 at 12:44 PM
Economic data and market response highlight where market's mind is at.
CPI was mostly in line with expectations or marginally above at 0.4% headline and 0.3% core. Headline rose to 2.9% Y/Y and core held at 3.1%
But unemployment claims jumped to 263K, pushing the 4-week average to 240.5K.
CPI was mostly in line with expectations or marginally above at 0.4% headline and 0.3% core. Headline rose to 2.9% Y/Y and core held at 3.1%
But unemployment claims jumped to 263K, pushing the 4-week average to 240.5K.
Even as many Semiconductor industry stocks are not doing that well on earnings trends, Broadcom has not seen any sign of weakness yet (NVIDIA has also returned to leadership after a pause).
By contrast, Intel's indicators remain very negative despite the government's recent equity stake.
By contrast, Intel's indicators remain very negative despite the government's recent equity stake.
September 8, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Even as many Semiconductor industry stocks are not doing that well on earnings trends, Broadcom has not seen any sign of weakness yet (NVIDIA has also returned to leadership after a pause).
By contrast, Intel's indicators remain very negative despite the government's recent equity stake.
By contrast, Intel's indicators remain very negative despite the government's recent equity stake.
A key idea in Mill Street's stock selection work is that analyst estimate revisions tend to be persistent.
Sometimes you find an extreme example of that, like Broadcom (AVGO).
5 years of consistent "beat and raise", most recently biggest positive monthly revisions in 5 years.
Sometimes you find an extreme example of that, like Broadcom (AVGO).
5 years of consistent "beat and raise", most recently biggest positive monthly revisions in 5 years.
September 8, 2025 at 5:45 PM
A key idea in Mill Street's stock selection work is that analyst estimate revisions tend to be persistent.
Sometimes you find an extreme example of that, like Broadcom (AVGO).
5 years of consistent "beat and raise", most recently biggest positive monthly revisions in 5 years.
Sometimes you find an extreme example of that, like Broadcom (AVGO).
5 years of consistent "beat and raise", most recently biggest positive monthly revisions in 5 years.
The Fed's predicament in one chart:
Core PCE is above target and rising, with tariffs a key driver.
Real consumption growth for YTD (7 months under Trump) has fallen sharply, near zero through July.
So we may get the year's first rate cut this month, but not much else.
Core PCE is above target and rising, with tariffs a key driver.
Real consumption growth for YTD (7 months under Trump) has fallen sharply, near zero through July.
So we may get the year's first rate cut this month, but not much else.
September 4, 2025 at 8:52 PM
The Fed's predicament in one chart:
Core PCE is above target and rising, with tariffs a key driver.
Real consumption growth for YTD (7 months under Trump) has fallen sharply, near zero through July.
So we may get the year's first rate cut this month, but not much else.
Core PCE is above target and rising, with tariffs a key driver.
Real consumption growth for YTD (7 months under Trump) has fallen sharply, near zero through July.
So we may get the year's first rate cut this month, but not much else.
Just to summarize the Fed's dilemma, using the 7 months of 2025 (i.e. Trump) data we now have:
Annualized core PCE inflation: 3.2% (target is ~2%)
Annualized real consumer spending: 0.3% (long-run average is ~2.2%)
= above-target inflation and weak consumer spending growth.
Annualized core PCE inflation: 3.2% (target is ~2%)
Annualized real consumer spending: 0.3% (long-run average is ~2.2%)
= above-target inflation and weak consumer spending growth.
August 29, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Just to summarize the Fed's dilemma, using the 7 months of 2025 (i.e. Trump) data we now have:
Annualized core PCE inflation: 3.2% (target is ~2%)
Annualized real consumer spending: 0.3% (long-run average is ~2.2%)
= above-target inflation and weak consumer spending growth.
Annualized core PCE inflation: 3.2% (target is ~2%)
Annualized real consumer spending: 0.3% (long-run average is ~2.2%)
= above-target inflation and weak consumer spending growth.
The big story in US markets is still AI/Tech, despite the recent rally in small-caps.
Since its November 29th peak, the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) is only up 0.6%, while the cap-weighted S&P 500 (SPY) is up 7.8%.
Sector returns since 11/29 show the Tech/Communication Services dominance clearly.
Since its November 29th peak, the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) is only up 0.6%, while the cap-weighted S&P 500 (SPY) is up 7.8%.
Sector returns since 11/29 show the Tech/Communication Services dominance clearly.
August 28, 2025 at 7:50 PM
The big story in US markets is still AI/Tech, despite the recent rally in small-caps.
Since its November 29th peak, the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) is only up 0.6%, while the cap-weighted S&P 500 (SPY) is up 7.8%.
Sector returns since 11/29 show the Tech/Communication Services dominance clearly.
Since its November 29th peak, the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) is only up 0.6%, while the cap-weighted S&P 500 (SPY) is up 7.8%.
Sector returns since 11/29 show the Tech/Communication Services dominance clearly.
Our data showed analysts had been raising earnings estimates going into the report, which is usually a sign the company will beat expectations, and they mostly did.
But the huge rally in NVDA since April meant a moderate "beat" may have already been priced in, hence the lack of gain today.
But the huge rally in NVDA since April meant a moderate "beat" may have already been priced in, hence the lack of gain today.
August 28, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Our data showed analysts had been raising earnings estimates going into the report, which is usually a sign the company will beat expectations, and they mostly did.
But the huge rally in NVDA since April meant a moderate "beat" may have already been priced in, hence the lack of gain today.
But the huge rally in NVDA since April meant a moderate "beat" may have already been priced in, hence the lack of gain today.