Unlike Bitcoin, earnings estimates for the next 12 months for the NASDAQ-100 index continue to rise steadily.

The 2026 estimate is currently about $892 per share, reflecting growth of about 17%, with the P/E on that estimate at 28x. High but not extreme if you believe the estimates and their trend.

According to Bloomberg's reporting, prices for future tariff refunds for importers are still trading in the 10-25 cents/dollar range, suggesting uncertainty is still high about whether refunds ever actually appear and when.

Only IEEPA tariffs are being decided, as shown in Bloomberg's graphic.

The UBS Speculative Growth index down -8.4% today, and down -34% from its Oct. 15th peak.

"The basket tracks 80 stocks tried to early stage technological ventures like Quantum Computing, Space Exploration, Autonomous Driving, Rare Earths, Drones, Crypto, Nuclear, and Robots."

Still waiting for Congress to go through its steps, but the House is voting soon about re-opening the government, so
if that goes through and Trump signs, then things should start to reopen in a few days.

Unclear how long it will take for services, including air travel, to return to normal.

The result is that oil producers are lagging while refiners are looking better.

The ETF tracking refiners, ticker CRAK, has dramatically outperformed the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF, ticker XOP, particularly in the last 4 weeks (+12% vs -1%).

Earlier today OPEC said they now see a surplus for crude oil rather than a deficit in Q3 on higher than expected US and other non-OPEC production.

Refiners are also using less crude lately due to maintenance and crude inventories have risen.

However, refining margins are up sharply recently.

Still a lot of day-to-day rotation between Tech and everything else, or Growth vs Value.

Small-caps are still struggling relative to large-caps overall, with earnings still stronger in large-caps and late-cycle economic/market conditions still mostly in place despite Fed rate cuts.

The data available is noisy but suggests the labor market is not great but not terrible given the drop in labor supply caused by drastic immigration reductions.

The bond market is closed today for Veterans Day but futures show bond prices up (yields down).

Stocks are mixed to lower so far.

Q3 earnings reports are still going but the majority have come out now, and in aggregate look pretty good, so analyst EPS estimates are holding up.

There may be more internal rotation to come but it still looks like risk appetite is positive and investors don't want to bail out of stocks.

The shutdown and the SNAP benefit halt are starting to have more visible economic effects, including via air travel, etc.
This will intensify the political pressure to end it, though with the House still refusing to even show up for work, it may take a while longer.

Not coincidentally, crypto also rebounded from its recent decline at the same time, indicating a risk recovery along with the internal rotation in stocks.

Headlines of a shutdown deal proposal are being cited, though the GOP quickly rejected the Dem proposal in the Senate.

The Fed seems to want to pause rate cuts in December due to inflation concerns and potential stabilization in the labor data that is available.

And if Trump's IEEPA tariffs are ruled illegal, there could be a moderate stimulus effect next year along with the OBBBA tax changes.

Private sources have been trying to construct data to fill in the gaps, but it is noisier and limited.

Bloomberg has made an alt-data labor market index from 19 inputs that has sort of tracked the Fed's Labor Conditions index. It ticked up slightly at the latest update but remains in slowing mode.