Mill Street Research
@millstreetresearch.com
Mill Street Research strategist Sam Burns, CFA, provides proprietary institutional research & tools on asset allocation, stock selection and the economy.
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Mill Street Research is an independent boutique investment research firm, founded near Boston in 2016 by Chief Strategist Sam Burns, CFA. The research covers asset allocation and global quantitative stock selection. 1/8
Mill Street Research is an independent boutique investment research firm, founded near Boston in 2016 by Chief Strategist Sam Burns, CFA. The research covers asset allocation and global quantitative stock selection. 1/8
Stock prices, mostly Tech, getting dragged around by the movements in Bitcoin/crypto today.
Bitcoin is down further to about $92K after last week's slide, and weighing on sentiment.
Investors also waiting for NVIDIA's earnings report due Wednesday. NVDA down -2.5% today and off 10% from its peak.
Bitcoin is down further to about $92K after last week's slide, and weighing on sentiment.
Investors also waiting for NVIDIA's earnings report due Wednesday. NVDA down -2.5% today and off 10% from its peak.
November 17, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Stock prices, mostly Tech, getting dragged around by the movements in Bitcoin/crypto today.
Bitcoin is down further to about $92K after last week's slide, and weighing on sentiment.
Investors also waiting for NVIDIA's earnings report due Wednesday. NVDA down -2.5% today and off 10% from its peak.
Bitcoin is down further to about $92K after last week's slide, and weighing on sentiment.
Investors also waiting for NVIDIA's earnings report due Wednesday. NVDA down -2.5% today and off 10% from its peak.
More tariff news and activity as there seems to be an agreement to reduce the tariff on Switzerland to 15% from 39%, though of course there are no clear details.
This comes while the Supreme Court is deciding whether such tariffs are legal at all, and banks are trading claims on tariff refunds.
This comes while the Supreme Court is deciding whether such tariffs are legal at all, and banks are trading claims on tariff refunds.
November 14, 2025 at 5:20 PM
More tariff news and activity as there seems to be an agreement to reduce the tariff on Switzerland to 15% from 39%, though of course there are no clear details.
This comes while the Supreme Court is deciding whether such tariffs are legal at all, and banks are trading claims on tariff refunds.
This comes while the Supreme Court is deciding whether such tariffs are legal at all, and banks are trading claims on tariff refunds.
While headlines are saying markets are down today because of Fed worries or economic data, it seems more like the tech-related stocks are following crypto (bitcoin) down in a general risk off move accompanied by internal rotation to formerly lagging sectors.
November 13, 2025 at 8:59 PM
While headlines are saying markets are down today because of Fed worries or economic data, it seems more like the tech-related stocks are following crypto (bitcoin) down in a general risk off move accompanied by internal rotation to formerly lagging sectors.
Down day in stocks with big Tech and Russell 2000 down around 2%ish, but broader market holding up better with Equal Weight S&P 500 down only -0.5%.
More rotation as former laggards Health Care and Energy are up along with a mild gain in Staples.
Crypto weak again today also a factor.
More rotation as former laggards Health Care and Energy are up along with a mild gain in Staples.
Crypto weak again today also a factor.
November 13, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Down day in stocks with big Tech and Russell 2000 down around 2%ish, but broader market holding up better with Equal Weight S&P 500 down only -0.5%.
More rotation as former laggards Health Care and Energy are up along with a mild gain in Staples.
Crypto weak again today also a factor.
More rotation as former laggards Health Care and Energy are up along with a mild gain in Staples.
Crypto weak again today also a factor.
Confirmation from the former BLS commissioner that there could be some jobs data from the establishment survey (nonfarm payrolls) gathered retroactively for October, but not for the household survey (unemployment rate) or CPI.
BLS has been damaged badly by DOGE and shutdown, trying to recover.
BLS has been damaged badly by DOGE and shutdown, trying to recover.
Allow me to translate. October data was not collected as field staff were all furloughed. In some cases, that data can be recovered from businesses. In other cases, the window to collect the data has closed (consumer prices, labor force status) and the data hole may be permanent.
WHITE HOUSE: FEDERAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM MAY HAVE PERMANENTLY BEEN DAMAGED WHITE HOUSE: OCTOBER JOBS REPORTS LIKELY NEVER RELEASED
November 13, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Confirmation from the former BLS commissioner that there could be some jobs data from the establishment survey (nonfarm payrolls) gathered retroactively for October, but not for the household survey (unemployment rate) or CPI.
BLS has been damaged badly by DOGE and shutdown, trying to recover.
BLS has been damaged badly by DOGE and shutdown, trying to recover.
White House said we likely won't ever get October employment or CPI data, as no one was around to collect much of it: jobs data from companies could possibly be backfilled, but household and CPI surveys can’t be.
Stock indices are pretty quiet today, with the broader market doing a bit better.
Stock indices are pretty quiet today, with the broader market doing a bit better.
November 12, 2025 at 8:41 PM
White House said we likely won't ever get October employment or CPI data, as no one was around to collect much of it: jobs data from companies could possibly be backfilled, but household and CPI surveys can’t be.
Stock indices are pretty quiet today, with the broader market doing a bit better.
Stock indices are pretty quiet today, with the broader market doing a bit better.
Pretty significant drop in crude oil prices today, reversing yesterday's gains, as signs of a growing surplus of oil are appearing.
Futures prices touched contango today (current prices below future prices), often a warning sign of a near-term glut.
Prices now at 3-week lows.
Futures prices touched contango today (current prices below future prices), often a warning sign of a near-term glut.
Prices now at 3-week lows.
November 12, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Pretty significant drop in crude oil prices today, reversing yesterday's gains, as signs of a growing surplus of oil are appearing.
Futures prices touched contango today (current prices below future prices), often a warning sign of a near-term glut.
Prices now at 3-week lows.
Futures prices touched contango today (current prices below future prices), often a warning sign of a near-term glut.
Prices now at 3-week lows.
NVIDIA's stock has been more volatile lately, and it matters because of its nearly $5 trillion market cap.
Our work shows that analysts are still raising EPS estimates ahead of next week's earnings report, which is usually a good sign and suggests dip buyers will continue.
Our work shows that analysts are still raising EPS estimates ahead of next week's earnings report, which is usually a good sign and suggests dip buyers will continue.
November 11, 2025 at 7:31 PM
NVIDIA's stock has been more volatile lately, and it matters because of its nearly $5 trillion market cap.
Our work shows that analysts are still raising EPS estimates ahead of next week's earnings report, which is usually a good sign and suggests dip buyers will continue.
Our work shows that analysts are still raising EPS estimates ahead of next week's earnings report, which is usually a good sign and suggests dip buyers will continue.
One of those days when one stock has a notable impact on the indices.
The -2% drop in NVIDIA is mostly responsible for the mild decline in the NASDAQ today, and is weighing on the S&P 500.
The rest of the market is mostly higher: 9 of 11 sectors are up today.
The -2% drop in NVIDIA is mostly responsible for the mild decline in the NASDAQ today, and is weighing on the S&P 500.
The rest of the market is mostly higher: 9 of 11 sectors are up today.
November 11, 2025 at 7:23 PM
One of those days when one stock has a notable impact on the indices.
The -2% drop in NVIDIA is mostly responsible for the mild decline in the NASDAQ today, and is weighing on the S&P 500.
The rest of the market is mostly higher: 9 of 11 sectors are up today.
The -2% drop in NVIDIA is mostly responsible for the mild decline in the NASDAQ today, and is weighing on the S&P 500.
The rest of the market is mostly higher: 9 of 11 sectors are up today.
Without the usual government employment data, economists and the private sector (like Goldman Sachs) are trying to fill the gap.
ADP is now producing weekly estimates of rolling 4-week employment changes, and said today US firms cut 11K jobs/week over the last 4 weeks, similar to Goldman.
ADP is now producing weekly estimates of rolling 4-week employment changes, and said today US firms cut 11K jobs/week over the last 4 weeks, similar to Goldman.
(WSJ) - U.S. nonfarm payrolls likely shrunk by 50,000 roles in October, economists at Goldman Sachs said.
@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
November 11, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Without the usual government employment data, economists and the private sector (like Goldman Sachs) are trying to fill the gap.
ADP is now producing weekly estimates of rolling 4-week employment changes, and said today US firms cut 11K jobs/week over the last 4 weeks, similar to Goldman.
ADP is now producing weekly estimates of rolling 4-week employment changes, and said today US firms cut 11K jobs/week over the last 4 weeks, similar to Goldman.
Back to risk-on and Big Tech leadership in stocks today after last week's pullback and Growth-to-Value rotation.
Some interest in the Senate moves to end the shutdown, though it may take a little longer for that to happen given that the House is still not in session.
Some interest in the Senate moves to end the shutdown, though it may take a little longer for that to happen given that the House is still not in session.
November 10, 2025 at 8:23 PM
Back to risk-on and Big Tech leadership in stocks today after last week's pullback and Growth-to-Value rotation.
Some interest in the Senate moves to end the shutdown, though it may take a little longer for that to happen given that the House is still not in session.
Some interest in the Senate moves to end the shutdown, though it may take a little longer for that to happen given that the House is still not in session.
Something of a reversal day in stocks, opening down and then rebounding in the afternoon.
It was also a sector reversal day, as Tech and Comm. Services were the only sectors down, everything else was up, led by Energy, Utilities, and Real Estate, i.e., Value and small/mid-caps.
It was also a sector reversal day, as Tech and Comm. Services were the only sectors down, everything else was up, led by Energy, Utilities, and Real Estate, i.e., Value and small/mid-caps.
November 7, 2025 at 9:28 PM
Something of a reversal day in stocks, opening down and then rebounding in the afternoon.
It was also a sector reversal day, as Tech and Comm. Services were the only sectors down, everything else was up, led by Energy, Utilities, and Real Estate, i.e., Value and small/mid-caps.
It was also a sector reversal day, as Tech and Comm. Services were the only sectors down, everything else was up, led by Energy, Utilities, and Real Estate, i.e., Value and small/mid-caps.
Well, it's the first Friday of the month and for a second consecutive month we are not getting the US labor report due to the longest-ever government shutdown.
The ADP data on private sector employment shows very little growth in recent months, but labor supply is also lower due to immigration.
The ADP data on private sector employment shows very little growth in recent months, but labor supply is also lower due to immigration.
November 7, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Well, it's the first Friday of the month and for a second consecutive month we are not getting the US labor report due to the longest-ever government shutdown.
The ADP data on private sector employment shows very little growth in recent months, but labor supply is also lower due to immigration.
The ADP data on private sector employment shows very little growth in recent months, but labor supply is also lower due to immigration.
The UBS Profitless Tech index continues to weaken, now down about -14% from its mid-September peak and starting to threaten its trend.
This is one proxy for the most speculative Tech stocks in the roughly $1 - 20B market cap range.
The NASDAQ-100 is only down -3.8% from its peak a week ago.
This is one proxy for the most speculative Tech stocks in the roughly $1 - 20B market cap range.
The NASDAQ-100 is only down -3.8% from its peak a week ago.
November 6, 2025 at 8:51 PM
The UBS Profitless Tech index continues to weaken, now down about -14% from its mid-September peak and starting to threaten its trend.
This is one proxy for the most speculative Tech stocks in the roughly $1 - 20B market cap range.
The NASDAQ-100 is only down -3.8% from its peak a week ago.
This is one proxy for the most speculative Tech stocks in the roughly $1 - 20B market cap range.
The NASDAQ-100 is only down -3.8% from its peak a week ago.
Looks like an anti-momentum day in stocks, as former winners lag and laggards outperform. Momentum and Growth factors are negative today.
Big Tech and some small Tech are dragging down both NASDAQ-100 and Russell 2000, but equal-weight S&P 500 and several sectors are down only mildly or are up.
Big Tech and some small Tech are dragging down both NASDAQ-100 and Russell 2000, but equal-weight S&P 500 and several sectors are down only mildly or are up.
November 6, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Looks like an anti-momentum day in stocks, as former winners lag and laggards outperform. Momentum and Growth factors are negative today.
Big Tech and some small Tech are dragging down both NASDAQ-100 and Russell 2000, but equal-weight S&P 500 and several sectors are down only mildly or are up.
Big Tech and some small Tech are dragging down both NASDAQ-100 and Russell 2000, but equal-weight S&P 500 and several sectors are down only mildly or are up.
Red day for most stocks, major indices down 1-2%.
Bonds rallying, reversing the decline in price (rise in yield) from yesterday as concerns about the economy come back.
Big Tech/AI leading the way down, while Energy and Utilities are holding green for now.
Bonds rallying, reversing the decline in price (rise in yield) from yesterday as concerns about the economy come back.
Big Tech/AI leading the way down, while Energy and Utilities are holding green for now.
November 6, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Red day for most stocks, major indices down 1-2%.
Bonds rallying, reversing the decline in price (rise in yield) from yesterday as concerns about the economy come back.
Big Tech/AI leading the way down, while Energy and Utilities are holding green for now.
Bonds rallying, reversing the decline in price (rise in yield) from yesterday as concerns about the economy come back.
Big Tech/AI leading the way down, while Energy and Utilities are holding green for now.
Central banks are still in cutting mode, but slowing down.
The Bank of England just voted to hold rates steady, slowing the previous once-a-quarter pace of rate cuts, but it was a close 5-4 vote. Another rate cut looks likely in December.
ECB and Bank of Canada seem to be moving similarly.
The Bank of England just voted to hold rates steady, slowing the previous once-a-quarter pace of rate cuts, but it was a close 5-4 vote. Another rate cut looks likely in December.
ECB and Bank of Canada seem to be moving similarly.
November 6, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Central banks are still in cutting mode, but slowing down.
The Bank of England just voted to hold rates steady, slowing the previous once-a-quarter pace of rate cuts, but it was a close 5-4 vote. Another rate cut looks likely in December.
ECB and Bank of Canada seem to be moving similarly.
The Bank of England just voted to hold rates steady, slowing the previous once-a-quarter pace of rate cuts, but it was a close 5-4 vote. Another rate cut looks likely in December.
ECB and Bank of Canada seem to be moving similarly.
The Supreme Court tariff case is still going on, but so far the court seems skeptical of the Trump administration's claims.
If the "emergency" (IEEPA) tariffs are struck down, importers who paid them could get over $100 billion in refunds.
If the "emergency" (IEEPA) tariffs are struck down, importers who paid them could get over $100 billion in refunds.
November 5, 2025 at 5:51 PM
The Supreme Court tariff case is still going on, but so far the court seems skeptical of the Trump administration's claims.
If the "emergency" (IEEPA) tariffs are struck down, importers who paid them could get over $100 billion in refunds.
If the "emergency" (IEEPA) tariffs are struck down, importers who paid them could get over $100 billion in refunds.
Big jump in bond yields today after ADP employment data and ISM Services report showed somewhat better-than-expected employment and higher inflation readings.
This adds to the arguments against another rate cut in December, and markets are responding.
10-year Treasury yield back up to 4.15%
This adds to the arguments against another rate cut in December, and markets are responding.
10-year Treasury yield back up to 4.15%
November 5, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Big jump in bond yields today after ADP employment data and ISM Services report showed somewhat better-than-expected employment and higher inflation readings.
This adds to the arguments against another rate cut in December, and markets are responding.
10-year Treasury yield back up to 4.15%
This adds to the arguments against another rate cut in December, and markets are responding.
10-year Treasury yield back up to 4.15%
Down day for stocks as Palantir's earnings report provoked selling despite an apparent "beat", and weakness in crypto is bleeding into stocks.
Basically situation where valuations are high so even good news can be sold if it's not extraordinary, and risk appetite is coming off extreme levels.
Basically situation where valuations are high so even good news can be sold if it's not extraordinary, and risk appetite is coming off extreme levels.
November 4, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Down day for stocks as Palantir's earnings report provoked selling despite an apparent "beat", and weakness in crypto is bleeding into stocks.
Basically situation where valuations are high so even good news can be sold if it's not extraordinary, and risk appetite is coming off extreme levels.
Basically situation where valuations are high so even good news can be sold if it's not extraordinary, and risk appetite is coming off extreme levels.
Today's market responses to news from the big AI-related names seems to suggest that investors are starting to debate whether infinitely increasing capex to build data centers, etc. will turn out to be profitable in the longer-run.
Cloud/AI demand is high, but the cost is also very high.
Cloud/AI demand is high, but the cost is also very high.
October 30, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Today's market responses to news from the big AI-related names seems to suggest that investors are starting to debate whether infinitely increasing capex to build data centers, etc. will turn out to be profitable in the longer-run.
Cloud/AI demand is high, but the cost is also very high.
Cloud/AI demand is high, but the cost is also very high.
Major indices being dragged down by Meta in particular today, down about -12% after releasing earnings.
It said capex would rise even further next year and took a big ($16B) tax charge. It also announced at $25B debt sale, raising concerns about the pace of its spending vs cash flow.
It said capex would rise even further next year and took a big ($16B) tax charge. It also announced at $25B debt sale, raising concerns about the pace of its spending vs cash flow.
October 30, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Major indices being dragged down by Meta in particular today, down about -12% after releasing earnings.
It said capex would rise even further next year and took a big ($16B) tax charge. It also announced at $25B debt sale, raising concerns about the pace of its spending vs cash flow.
It said capex would rise even further next year and took a big ($16B) tax charge. It also announced at $25B debt sale, raising concerns about the pace of its spending vs cash flow.
Key result of the Fed meeting was a rare "both ways" dissent:
Jeff Schmid (KC Fed) voted to keep rates unchanged, while Stephen Miran (i.e., Trump) voted for a 50bp cut (again).
And Powell's press conference indicated that a December cut is "far from a done deal", causing some repricing in bonds.
Jeff Schmid (KC Fed) voted to keep rates unchanged, while Stephen Miran (i.e., Trump) voted for a 50bp cut (again).
And Powell's press conference indicated that a December cut is "far from a done deal", causing some repricing in bonds.
October 29, 2025 at 7:21 PM
Key result of the Fed meeting was a rare "both ways" dissent:
Jeff Schmid (KC Fed) voted to keep rates unchanged, while Stephen Miran (i.e., Trump) voted for a 50bp cut (again).
And Powell's press conference indicated that a December cut is "far from a done deal", causing some repricing in bonds.
Jeff Schmid (KC Fed) voted to keep rates unchanged, while Stephen Miran (i.e., Trump) voted for a 50bp cut (again).
And Powell's press conference indicated that a December cut is "far from a done deal", causing some repricing in bonds.
Fiserv (FI) in the news today with a historic plunge of about -40% after it slashed earnings guidance and announced major changes to leadership.
As it turns out, our MAER stock selection tool showed negative trends in analyst estimate revisions and relative returns for months before today's news.
As it turns out, our MAER stock selection tool showed negative trends in analyst estimate revisions and relative returns for months before today's news.
October 29, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Fiserv (FI) in the news today with a historic plunge of about -40% after it slashed earnings guidance and announced major changes to leadership.
As it turns out, our MAER stock selection tool showed negative trends in analyst estimate revisions and relative returns for months before today's news.
As it turns out, our MAER stock selection tool showed negative trends in analyst estimate revisions and relative returns for months before today's news.
Fed meeting winding up soon, with everyone expecting a 25bp cut.
The Bank of Canada announced a 25bp cut this morning, to 2.25% and said rates are at "about the right level" as the damage from US tariffs slows growth.
Central bankers know they can't offset bad macro policy, but have to try.
The Bank of Canada announced a 25bp cut this morning, to 2.25% and said rates are at "about the right level" as the damage from US tariffs slows growth.
Central bankers know they can't offset bad macro policy, but have to try.
October 29, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Fed meeting winding up soon, with everyone expecting a 25bp cut.
The Bank of Canada announced a 25bp cut this morning, to 2.25% and said rates are at "about the right level" as the damage from US tariffs slows growth.
Central bankers know they can't offset bad macro policy, but have to try.
The Bank of Canada announced a 25bp cut this morning, to 2.25% and said rates are at "about the right level" as the damage from US tariffs slows growth.
Central bankers know they can't offset bad macro policy, but have to try.