Mill Street Research
@millstreetresearch.com
Mill Street Research strategist Sam Burns, CFA, provides proprietary institutional research & tools on asset allocation, stock selection and the economy.
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Mill Street Research is an independent boutique investment research firm, founded near Boston in 2016 by Chief Strategist Sam Burns, CFA. The research covers asset allocation and global quantitative stock selection. 1/8
Mill Street Research is an independent boutique investment research firm, founded near Boston in 2016 by Chief Strategist Sam Burns, CFA. The research covers asset allocation and global quantitative stock selection. 1/8
S&P 500 Tech names reporting after the close, Seagate and Texas Instruments both reported results that Wall Street seems to like, and are trading up significantly after-hours.
Positive for storage and chips.
Software has been the concern, and Roper disappointed today.
NOW and MSFT tomorrow.
Positive for storage and chips.
Software has been the concern, and Roper disappointed today.
NOW and MSFT tomorrow.
January 28, 2026 at 1:44 AM
S&P 500 Tech names reporting after the close, Seagate and Texas Instruments both reported results that Wall Street seems to like, and are trading up significantly after-hours.
Positive for storage and chips.
Software has been the concern, and Roper disappointed today.
NOW and MSFT tomorrow.
Positive for storage and chips.
Software has been the concern, and Roper disappointed today.
NOW and MSFT tomorrow.
The MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM) has had a strong start to the year (+10%), outperforming developed markets (URTH) by 7% YTD.
But it is mostly EM markets outside China that are doing best, as China (MCHI) is lagging EM, has much weaker earnings estimate trends, and is not particularly cheap.
But it is mostly EM markets outside China that are doing best, as China (MCHI) is lagging EM, has much weaker earnings estimate trends, and is not particularly cheap.
January 27, 2026 at 10:22 PM
The MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM) has had a strong start to the year (+10%), outperforming developed markets (URTH) by 7% YTD.
But it is mostly EM markets outside China that are doing best, as China (MCHI) is lagging EM, has much weaker earnings estimate trends, and is not particularly cheap.
But it is mostly EM markets outside China that are doing best, as China (MCHI) is lagging EM, has much weaker earnings estimate trends, and is not particularly cheap.
Dollar is down again today, with the DXY hitting its lowest since early 2022.
Some of this is the big yen move on possible intervention, but the euro, pound, and Canadian dollar are also gaining sharply vs USD.
Clearly a "sell dollar" theme, but not necessarily bad for US large-cap stocks.
Some of this is the big yen move on possible intervention, but the euro, pound, and Canadian dollar are also gaining sharply vs USD.
Clearly a "sell dollar" theme, but not necessarily bad for US large-cap stocks.
January 27, 2026 at 5:55 PM
Dollar is down again today, with the DXY hitting its lowest since early 2022.
Some of this is the big yen move on possible intervention, but the euro, pound, and Canadian dollar are also gaining sharply vs USD.
Clearly a "sell dollar" theme, but not necessarily bad for US large-cap stocks.
Some of this is the big yen move on possible intervention, but the euro, pound, and Canadian dollar are also gaining sharply vs USD.
Clearly a "sell dollar" theme, but not necessarily bad for US large-cap stocks.
Big Tech is leading again today, with Semis gaining 2.7%.
Financials sector the worst performer so far today alongside Health Care. Not due to Banks, as the insurance-related names (BRO, AJG, AON) are down alongside the health insurance stocks tied to the negative Medicare payment news yesterday.
Financials sector the worst performer so far today alongside Health Care. Not due to Banks, as the insurance-related names (BRO, AJG, AON) are down alongside the health insurance stocks tied to the negative Medicare payment news yesterday.
January 27, 2026 at 4:10 PM
Big Tech is leading again today, with Semis gaining 2.7%.
Financials sector the worst performer so far today alongside Health Care. Not due to Banks, as the insurance-related names (BRO, AJG, AON) are down alongside the health insurance stocks tied to the negative Medicare payment news yesterday.
Financials sector the worst performer so far today alongside Health Care. Not due to Banks, as the insurance-related names (BRO, AJG, AON) are down alongside the health insurance stocks tied to the negative Medicare payment news yesterday.
No major macro news today, but tomorrow is the FOMC meeting.
No one expects a change in rates, but this will be the first meeting since the Trump administration served subpoenas threatening legal action against Powell and the Fed, and Powell responded with a video calling Trump's BS out explicitly.
No one expects a change in rates, but this will be the first meeting since the Trump administration served subpoenas threatening legal action against Powell and the Fed, and Powell responded with a video calling Trump's BS out explicitly.
January 27, 2026 at 2:04 PM
No major macro news today, but tomorrow is the FOMC meeting.
No one expects a change in rates, but this will be the first meeting since the Trump administration served subpoenas threatening legal action against Powell and the Fed, and Powell responded with a video calling Trump's BS out explicitly.
No one expects a change in rates, but this will be the first meeting since the Trump administration served subpoenas threatening legal action against Powell and the Fed, and Powell responded with a video calling Trump's BS out explicitly.
Client Q: what are your favorite out-of-favor Tech names?
The top-ranked large-cap US Tech names in our MAER ranking model right now that have lagged the market recently include:
Broadcom (AVGO)
NVIDIA (NVDA)
IBM (IBM)
Marvell Technology (MRVL)
More info: www.millstreetresearch.com/sample/Mill%...
The top-ranked large-cap US Tech names in our MAER ranking model right now that have lagged the market recently include:
Broadcom (AVGO)
NVIDIA (NVDA)
IBM (IBM)
Marvell Technology (MRVL)
More info: www.millstreetresearch.com/sample/Mill%...
January 26, 2026 at 9:17 PM
Client Q: what are your favorite out-of-favor Tech names?
The top-ranked large-cap US Tech names in our MAER ranking model right now that have lagged the market recently include:
Broadcom (AVGO)
NVIDIA (NVDA)
IBM (IBM)
Marvell Technology (MRVL)
More info: www.millstreetresearch.com/sample/Mill%...
The top-ranked large-cap US Tech names in our MAER ranking model right now that have lagged the market recently include:
Broadcom (AVGO)
NVIDIA (NVDA)
IBM (IBM)
Marvell Technology (MRVL)
More info: www.millstreetresearch.com/sample/Mill%...
The UBS Speculative Growth index surged 28% in the first two weeks of this year, following a big correction from its peak in October.
The index is down -6.5% today, and down 8% from the Jan. 16 peak.
Lots of positioning-driven reversals to start the year, but may be fading now.
The index is down -6.5% today, and down 8% from the Jan. 16 peak.
Lots of positioning-driven reversals to start the year, but may be fading now.
January 26, 2026 at 8:19 PM
The UBS Speculative Growth index surged 28% in the first two weeks of this year, following a big correction from its peak in October.
The index is down -6.5% today, and down 8% from the Jan. 16 peak.
Lots of positioning-driven reversals to start the year, but may be fading now.
The index is down -6.5% today, and down 8% from the Jan. 16 peak.
Lots of positioning-driven reversals to start the year, but may be fading now.
More rotation from Russell 2000 (small-caps) back to Big Tech today. The S&P 500 Tech sector is up 1% while R2K is down -0.2%. Broader market is mildly positive.
Precious metals still going bonkers, silver up to $115/oz and gold pushing $5100.
Bond yields stable so it's not an inflation thing.
Precious metals still going bonkers, silver up to $115/oz and gold pushing $5100.
Bond yields stable so it's not an inflation thing.
January 26, 2026 at 6:30 PM
More rotation from Russell 2000 (small-caps) back to Big Tech today. The S&P 500 Tech sector is up 1% while R2K is down -0.2%. Broader market is mildly positive.
Precious metals still going bonkers, silver up to $115/oz and gold pushing $5100.
Bond yields stable so it's not an inflation thing.
Precious metals still going bonkers, silver up to $115/oz and gold pushing $5100.
Bond yields stable so it's not an inflation thing.
Software stocks (IGV) are finally getting a bounce, up the last 2 days after some heavy selling.
This has been entirely multiple compression, as earnings estimates (for next 12 months) have held up fine, even improving vs S&P 500.
So IGV now looks very cheap vs SPY compared to the last 10 years.
This has been entirely multiple compression, as earnings estimates (for next 12 months) have held up fine, even improving vs S&P 500.
So IGV now looks very cheap vs SPY compared to the last 10 years.
January 23, 2026 at 8:23 PM
Software stocks (IGV) are finally getting a bounce, up the last 2 days after some heavy selling.
This has been entirely multiple compression, as earnings estimates (for next 12 months) have held up fine, even improving vs S&P 500.
So IGV now looks very cheap vs SPY compared to the last 10 years.
This has been entirely multiple compression, as earnings estimates (for next 12 months) have held up fine, even improving vs S&P 500.
So IGV now looks very cheap vs SPY compared to the last 10 years.
US stocks have been lagging ex-US stocks in the major indices (S&P 500 vs MSCI ACWI ex-USA index), and the main reason is the stark underperformance of US Tech vs ex-US Tech (the rest of the market is better).
This is not an earnings issue, it's valuation compression for US vs ex-US Tech.
This is not an earnings issue, it's valuation compression for US vs ex-US Tech.
January 23, 2026 at 4:35 PM
US stocks have been lagging ex-US stocks in the major indices (S&P 500 vs MSCI ACWI ex-USA index), and the main reason is the stark underperformance of US Tech vs ex-US Tech (the rest of the market is better).
This is not an earnings issue, it's valuation compression for US vs ex-US Tech.
This is not an earnings issue, it's valuation compression for US vs ex-US Tech.
Looks like another "Big Tech vs small-caps" rotation, with Big Tech in favor today after a long stretch of small-cap outperformance.
Oil is on on news of Trump threatening Iran again, and precious metals making new highs yet again.
US bonds steady and dollar off a bit.
Oil is on on news of Trump threatening Iran again, and precious metals making new highs yet again.
US bonds steady and dollar off a bit.
January 23, 2026 at 4:28 PM
Looks like another "Big Tech vs small-caps" rotation, with Big Tech in favor today after a long stretch of small-cap outperformance.
Oil is on on news of Trump threatening Iran again, and precious metals making new highs yet again.
US bonds steady and dollar off a bit.
Oil is on on news of Trump threatening Iran again, and precious metals making new highs yet again.
US bonds steady and dollar off a bit.
Solid economic data and rebound from Trump's latest TACO move in Greenland/Europe (or is it Iceland??) have brought the S&P 500 just about back to where it was on Friday.
The Russell 2000, meanwhile, is well above its Friday close.
Bond yields mostly steady today but dollar down.
The Russell 2000, meanwhile, is well above its Friday close.
Bond yields mostly steady today but dollar down.
January 22, 2026 at 6:11 PM
Solid economic data and rebound from Trump's latest TACO move in Greenland/Europe (or is it Iceland??) have brought the S&P 500 just about back to where it was on Friday.
The Russell 2000, meanwhile, is well above its Friday close.
Bond yields mostly steady today but dollar down.
The Russell 2000, meanwhile, is well above its Friday close.
Bond yields mostly steady today but dollar down.
Stocks opening higher, with small-caps again leading as the TACO trade continues.
Weekly unemployment claims were again low at 200K, still showing low levels of layoffs.
Income and spending for October and November also out, mostly in line with consensus.
Weekly unemployment claims were again low at 200K, still showing low levels of layoffs.
Income and spending for October and November also out, mostly in line with consensus.
January 22, 2026 at 3:07 PM
Stocks opening higher, with small-caps again leading as the TACO trade continues.
Weekly unemployment claims were again low at 200K, still showing low levels of layoffs.
Income and spending for October and November also out, mostly in line with consensus.
Weekly unemployment claims were again low at 200K, still showing low levels of layoffs.
Income and spending for October and November also out, mostly in line with consensus.
In other "fending off Trump" news, the Supreme Court seems to be skeptical of allowing Trump to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over made-up allegations of mortgage fraud.
The threat to the Fed's independence from the President seems to be the key issue.
The threat to the Fed's independence from the President seems to be the key issue.
January 21, 2026 at 8:49 PM
In other "fending off Trump" news, the Supreme Court seems to be skeptical of allowing Trump to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over made-up allegations of mortgage fraud.
The threat to the Fed's independence from the President seems to be the key issue.
The threat to the Fed's independence from the President seems to be the key issue.
Stocks have been bouncing around today, trying to recover from yesterday's sell-off.
News just hitting that Trump has a "framework of a deal" (i.e. TACO?) about Greenland and the tariffs on Europe he threatened. This has produced a renewed bounce, will see if it holds.
News just hitting that Trump has a "framework of a deal" (i.e. TACO?) about Greenland and the tariffs on Europe he threatened. This has produced a renewed bounce, will see if it holds.
January 21, 2026 at 7:41 PM
Stocks have been bouncing around today, trying to recover from yesterday's sell-off.
News just hitting that Trump has a "framework of a deal" (i.e. TACO?) about Greenland and the tariffs on Europe he threatened. This has produced a renewed bounce, will see if it holds.
News just hitting that Trump has a "framework of a deal" (i.e. TACO?) about Greenland and the tariffs on Europe he threatened. This has produced a renewed bounce, will see if it holds.
According to the Supreme Court watchers at Bloomberg, the Court's failure to rule on tariffs today likely means it will be late next month before a ruling comes, as they are going on a 4-week recess.
Feb. 20th is the next official session when they might rule on tariffs.
Feb. 20th is the next official session when they might rule on tariffs.
January 20, 2026 at 7:57 PM
According to the Supreme Court watchers at Bloomberg, the Court's failure to rule on tariffs today likely means it will be late next month before a ruling comes, as they are going on a 4-week recess.
Feb. 20th is the next official session when they might rule on tariffs.
Feb. 20th is the next official session when they might rule on tariffs.
Stocks resuming their downtrend today after a mild bounce attempt, though small-caps are holding up better than large-caps.
Gold and silver are jumping yet again on the geopolitical concerns and weak US dollar, as well as ongoing momentum chasing.
Bond yields holding at higher levels.
Gold and silver are jumping yet again on the geopolitical concerns and weak US dollar, as well as ongoing momentum chasing.
Bond yields holding at higher levels.
January 20, 2026 at 6:34 PM
Stocks resuming their downtrend today after a mild bounce attempt, though small-caps are holding up better than large-caps.
Gold and silver are jumping yet again on the geopolitical concerns and weak US dollar, as well as ongoing momentum chasing.
Bond yields holding at higher levels.
Gold and silver are jumping yet again on the geopolitical concerns and weak US dollar, as well as ongoing momentum chasing.
Bond yields holding at higher levels.
With Trump threatening new tariffs on Europe (for bizarre and stupid reasons), the uncertainty is intensified by the potential ruling this week from the Supreme Court about the IEEPA ("emergency") tariffs.
Many expect the Court to rule against them, though what happens next is unclear.
Many expect the Court to rule against them, though what happens next is unclear.
January 20, 2026 at 3:04 PM
With Trump threatening new tariffs on Europe (for bizarre and stupid reasons), the uncertainty is intensified by the potential ruling this week from the Supreme Court about the IEEPA ("emergency") tariffs.
Many expect the Court to rule against them, though what happens next is unclear.
Many expect the Court to rule against them, though what happens next is unclear.
Markets very unsettled today across asset classes.
Trump causing mayhem again with threats to Greenland and new tariffs on Europe.
Japan's bond market came unglued overnight with no obvious news, pushing long-term yields up sharply there with knock-on effects on US yields.
Trump causing mayhem again with threats to Greenland and new tariffs on Europe.
Japan's bond market came unglued overnight with no obvious news, pushing long-term yields up sharply there with knock-on effects on US yields.
January 20, 2026 at 2:48 PM
Markets very unsettled today across asset classes.
Trump causing mayhem again with threats to Greenland and new tariffs on Europe.
Japan's bond market came unglued overnight with no obvious news, pushing long-term yields up sharply there with knock-on effects on US yields.
Trump causing mayhem again with threats to Greenland and new tariffs on Europe.
Japan's bond market came unglued overnight with no obvious news, pushing long-term yields up sharply there with knock-on effects on US yields.
Stocks giving up early upticks today.
Bond yields higher, 10-year up to highest level since early September (4.21%), causing some nervousness.
Metals are down broadly after China clamped down on high-speed trading of metals. Lots of speculation in metals now so these headlines have an effect.
Bond yields higher, 10-year up to highest level since early September (4.21%), causing some nervousness.
Metals are down broadly after China clamped down on high-speed trading of metals. Lots of speculation in metals now so these headlines have an effect.
January 16, 2026 at 3:58 PM
Stocks giving up early upticks today.
Bond yields higher, 10-year up to highest level since early September (4.21%), causing some nervousness.
Metals are down broadly after China clamped down on high-speed trading of metals. Lots of speculation in metals now so these headlines have an effect.
Bond yields higher, 10-year up to highest level since early September (4.21%), causing some nervousness.
Metals are down broadly after China clamped down on high-speed trading of metals. Lots of speculation in metals now so these headlines have an effect.
The surge in memory makers like Micron (MU) aligns with the surge in DRAM prices, up more than 600% for 16GB DDR5 ($~5 to $35) since September, as noted by @followtheh.bsky.social.
EPS estimates are likewise surging, so forward P/E for MU is still barely 10x even after the big rally.
EPS estimates are likewise surging, so forward P/E for MU is still barely 10x even after the big rally.
January 16, 2026 at 3:21 PM
The surge in memory makers like Micron (MU) aligns with the surge in DRAM prices, up more than 600% for 16GB DDR5 ($~5 to $35) since September, as noted by @followtheh.bsky.social.
EPS estimates are likewise surging, so forward P/E for MU is still barely 10x even after the big rally.
EPS estimates are likewise surging, so forward P/E for MU is still barely 10x even after the big rally.
Interesting twist on the Trump plan to cap credit card rates at 10%, which would bankrupt most of the card industry.
According to Kevin Hassett (National Economic Council director and Trump spokesclown), banks will offer their own "Trump cards" with 10% rates, no Congress needed. (h/t @atrupar.com)
According to Kevin Hassett (National Economic Council director and Trump spokesclown), banks will offer their own "Trump cards" with 10% rates, no Congress needed. (h/t @atrupar.com)
Kevin Hassett on Trump's 10% cap on credit card interest rates: "Our expectations is that it won't necessarily require legislation because there will be great new Trump Cards provided voluntarily by the banks."
January 16, 2026 at 3:00 PM
Interesting twist on the Trump plan to cap credit card rates at 10%, which would bankrupt most of the card industry.
According to Kevin Hassett (National Economic Council director and Trump spokesclown), banks will offer their own "Trump cards" with 10% rates, no Congress needed. (h/t @atrupar.com)
According to Kevin Hassett (National Economic Council director and Trump spokesclown), banks will offer their own "Trump cards" with 10% rates, no Congress needed. (h/t @atrupar.com)
Good background from @econberger.bsky.social about the impact of immigration policy on population and labor force growth in 2025 and projections for the next few years.
This is a major reason for the lack of net job growth recently, and why the 25-54 y.o. unemployment rate hasn't risen as much.
This is a major reason for the lack of net job growth recently, and why the 25-54 y.o. unemployment rate hasn't risen as much.
Some charts of interest based on the latest CBO population estimates...
1/ First, immigration policy had a HUGE impact on population growth.
The US population grew by 0.8M in 2025 instead of the 2.5M expectation from a year ago - almost entirely due to lower net inflows.
1/ First, immigration policy had a HUGE impact on population growth.
The US population grew by 0.8M in 2025 instead of the 2.5M expectation from a year ago - almost entirely due to lower net inflows.
January 15, 2026 at 9:31 PM
Good background from @econberger.bsky.social about the impact of immigration policy on population and labor force growth in 2025 and projections for the next few years.
This is a major reason for the lack of net job growth recently, and why the 25-54 y.o. unemployment rate hasn't risen as much.
This is a major reason for the lack of net job growth recently, and why the 25-54 y.o. unemployment rate hasn't risen as much.
The S&P 400 Midcap (MDY) index is up sharply today, and has been roaring lately to new all-time highs, finally decisively above the late Nov. 2024 peak.
Biggest sector weight in MDY? Industrials, at 24%.
Midcap Industrials have surged this year, up 11% YTD.
Midcap Materials up 12% on metals gains.
Biggest sector weight in MDY? Industrials, at 24%.
Midcap Industrials have surged this year, up 11% YTD.
Midcap Materials up 12% on metals gains.
January 15, 2026 at 6:37 PM
The S&P 400 Midcap (MDY) index is up sharply today, and has been roaring lately to new all-time highs, finally decisively above the late Nov. 2024 peak.
Biggest sector weight in MDY? Industrials, at 24%.
Midcap Industrials have surged this year, up 11% YTD.
Midcap Materials up 12% on metals gains.
Biggest sector weight in MDY? Industrials, at 24%.
Midcap Industrials have surged this year, up 11% YTD.
Midcap Materials up 12% on metals gains.
Stocks up fairly broadly today, helped by some decent Financials earnings and rebounding leadership in Tech.
Oil prices are coming back in after rallying for a couple of days on Iran worries, which seem to (again) be abating as far as oil supply/US attacks go (things there are still horrific).
Oil prices are coming back in after rallying for a couple of days on Iran worries, which seem to (again) be abating as far as oil supply/US attacks go (things there are still horrific).
January 15, 2026 at 6:24 PM
Stocks up fairly broadly today, helped by some decent Financials earnings and rebounding leadership in Tech.
Oil prices are coming back in after rallying for a couple of days on Iran worries, which seem to (again) be abating as far as oil supply/US attacks go (things there are still horrific).
Oil prices are coming back in after rallying for a couple of days on Iran worries, which seem to (again) be abating as far as oil supply/US attacks go (things there are still horrific).