Marcus Shepheard
@mashley.bsky.social
Formerly @instituteforgov.bsky.social and @thecccuk.bsky.social, currently @nestauk.bsky.social, estwhile evolutionary biologist.
"The intersection of policy and donuts" - @jillongovt.bsky.social
"The intersection of policy and donuts" - @jillongovt.bsky.social
Pinned
Marcus Shepheard
@mashley.bsky.social
· Nov 14
Appreciate all the people who've followed me over the past week or so, welcome to Bluesky!
I've really benefitted from starter packs as this network grows. So I've made one of my own to help new arrivals find other interesting people. Please share, and let me know who's missing
go.bsky.app/Gq8LXLp
I've really benefitted from starter packs as this network grows. So I've made one of my own to help new arrivals find other interesting people. Please share, and let me know who's missing
go.bsky.app/Gq8LXLp
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Okay, I can't let this one go. I live in Ireland, not the UK, but the use of this image by a supposedly socialist party is so stupid and offensive, I'm going to get stuck in.
Let me explain to you why any experienced illustrator/designer could have stopped you making so many miserable mistakes. 1/
Let me explain to you why any experienced illustrator/designer could have stopped you making so many miserable mistakes. 1/
November 15, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Okay, I can't let this one go. I live in Ireland, not the UK, but the use of this image by a supposedly socialist party is so stupid and offensive, I'm going to get stuck in.
Let me explain to you why any experienced illustrator/designer could have stopped you making so many miserable mistakes. 1/
Let me explain to you why any experienced illustrator/designer could have stopped you making so many miserable mistakes. 1/
Building on the thread below, we've just published this which explains what the Energy Company is, what it does, what it's done well and (moreso) what has gone wrong with this scheme.
www.nesta.org.uk/project-upda...
www.nesta.org.uk/project-upda...
November 14, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Building on the thread below, we've just published this which explains what the Energy Company is, what it does, what it's done well and (moreso) what has gone wrong with this scheme.
www.nesta.org.uk/project-upda...
www.nesta.org.uk/project-upda...
👀
The OBR have now confirmed that they've used the 10 working days before 21 October for their debt interest forecast. Here's my precise graphical depiction of what was happening to yields in that period. Suspect this is why the fiscal forecasts are reported to improved.
November 14, 2025 at 3:09 PM
👀
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
There's been a flurry of briefing about energy bills and potential cuts to schemes and/or the Warm Homes Plan .
The premise is to cut the Energy Company Obligation (reducing bills by ~£60), and then replacing the funding with money from the Warm Homes Plan.
It's hard to see how this works
The premise is to cut the Energy Company Obligation (reducing bills by ~£60), and then replacing the funding with money from the Warm Homes Plan.
It's hard to see how this works
November 14, 2025 at 11:57 AM
There's been a flurry of briefing about energy bills and potential cuts to schemes and/or the Warm Homes Plan .
The premise is to cut the Energy Company Obligation (reducing bills by ~£60), and then replacing the funding with money from the Warm Homes Plan.
It's hard to see how this works
The premise is to cut the Energy Company Obligation (reducing bills by ~£60), and then replacing the funding with money from the Warm Homes Plan.
It's hard to see how this works
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
The cost of living crisis was caused in large part by gas prices.
Heat pump policy supports a solution which which gets the country off gas AND reduces emissions.
I seriously hope this is some crossed wires, if not we really are in trouble.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Heat pump policy supports a solution which which gets the country off gas AND reduces emissions.
I seriously hope this is some crossed wires, if not we really are in trouble.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Hundreds of thousands to lose heat pump subsidies in Reeves’s budget plan
Exclusive: Supporters say grants largely going to middle-class households, but experts warn move will slow transition from gas boilers
www.theguardian.com
November 13, 2025 at 4:57 PM
The cost of living crisis was caused in large part by gas prices.
Heat pump policy supports a solution which which gets the country off gas AND reduces emissions.
I seriously hope this is some crossed wires, if not we really are in trouble.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Heat pump policy supports a solution which which gets the country off gas AND reduces emissions.
I seriously hope this is some crossed wires, if not we really are in trouble.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
I think part of this story (on eligibility for heat pump grants) is likely to be nonsense - I'll explain in a thread below.
But it is clear that the Treasury wants to abolish the ECO levy, which funds upgrades for fuel poor homes. This would be a serious mistake
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
But it is clear that the Treasury wants to abolish the ECO levy, which funds upgrades for fuel poor homes. This would be a serious mistake
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Hundreds of thousands to lose heat pump subsidies in Reeves’s budget plan
Exclusive: Supporters say grants largely going to middle-class households, but experts warn move will slow transition from gas boilers
www.theguardian.com
November 13, 2025 at 5:03 PM
I think part of this story (on eligibility for heat pump grants) is likely to be nonsense - I'll explain in a thread below.
But it is clear that the Treasury wants to abolish the ECO levy, which funds upgrades for fuel poor homes. This would be a serious mistake
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
But it is clear that the Treasury wants to abolish the ECO levy, which funds upgrades for fuel poor homes. This would be a serious mistake
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
🍼
November 13, 2025 at 10:46 PM
🍼
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
This video is brilliant: buff.ly/1zyTWmM
Seems a total slam dunk that owners of private jets should pay fuel duties. Doesn't it?
The answer is annoying.
Thread:
Seems a total slam dunk that owners of private jets should pay fuel duties. Doesn't it?
The answer is annoying.
Thread:
Private jets don't pay fuel tax. Now I don't either.
You pay fuel duty. Why don’t billionaires? This week, we launched WeWingAnyCar.com to help you qualify for the same tax breaks that private jets get.
Because tax loopholes shouldn’t just be for…
www.youtube.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:34 AM
This video is brilliant: buff.ly/1zyTWmM
Seems a total slam dunk that owners of private jets should pay fuel duties. Doesn't it?
The answer is annoying.
Thread:
Seems a total slam dunk that owners of private jets should pay fuel duties. Doesn't it?
The answer is annoying.
Thread:
Sharing because this is such a neat tool
I'm delighted to share our new Clean Heat Policy Tracker, an initiative led by @regassistproj.bsky.social via the Clean Heat Forum). www.raponline.org/toolkit/clea...
Clean Heat Policy Tracker
Table of Contents Acknowledgements The Clean Heat Policy Tracker 2025 was designed and authored by Duncan Gibb and Richard Lowes (Regulatory Assistance Project/Clean Heat Forum). Chiara Delmastro (Int...
www.raponline.org
November 5, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Sharing because this is such a neat tool
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
The Treasury is widely reported to be considering cutting energy bills, perhaps via a VAT cut. What's the best way to do this?
We think the answer is to remove the taxes from electricity bills. Here is Nesta's proposal out for Tax-free Electricity:
@nestauk.bsky.social
We think the answer is to remove the taxes from electricity bills. Here is Nesta's proposal out for Tax-free Electricity:
@nestauk.bsky.social
Tax-free electricity
A proposal to remove most taxes on electricity to reduce bills and promote clean heating
www.nesta.org.uk
November 5, 2025 at 1:09 PM
The Treasury is widely reported to be considering cutting energy bills, perhaps via a VAT cut. What's the best way to do this?
We think the answer is to remove the taxes from electricity bills. Here is Nesta's proposal out for Tax-free Electricity:
@nestauk.bsky.social
We think the answer is to remove the taxes from electricity bills. Here is Nesta's proposal out for Tax-free Electricity:
@nestauk.bsky.social
Two thoughts related to Dhara's good points
1) ECO is not a sacred cow. It has cost more and performed worse with each iteration and does not serve our poorest households well. It needs a complete redesign
2) Funding for poor households is non-negotiable. Any retrenchment would be a major failure
1) ECO is not a sacred cow. It has cost more and performed worse with each iteration and does not serve our poorest households well. It needs a complete redesign
2) Funding for poor households is non-negotiable. Any retrenchment would be a major failure
Rare for trade bodies to be this publicly furious. The Treasury could make some relatively modest savings by cutting energy efficiency schemes, but it would do a lot of long term damage.
www.businessgreen.com/news/4521385...
www.businessgreen.com/news/4521385...
November 5, 2025 at 12:40 PM
Two thoughts related to Dhara's good points
1) ECO is not a sacred cow. It has cost more and performed worse with each iteration and does not serve our poorest households well. It needs a complete redesign
2) Funding for poor households is non-negotiable. Any retrenchment would be a major failure
1) ECO is not a sacred cow. It has cost more and performed worse with each iteration and does not serve our poorest households well. It needs a complete redesign
2) Funding for poor households is non-negotiable. Any retrenchment would be a major failure
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Real fuel prices and fuel duty are historically low, and would remain so even after scheduled increases in Spring. Instead of fuel duty freezes, the Chancellor should focus cost of living support on bringing down electricity prices, which are definitely not historically low.
November 4, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Real fuel prices and fuel duty are historically low, and would remain so even after scheduled increases in Spring. Instead of fuel duty freezes, the Chancellor should focus cost of living support on bringing down electricity prices, which are definitely not historically low.
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
The entire story of the GFC is people working in markets doing the exact opposite because all the incentives pointed in that direction. No one is rewarded for correctly seeing a risk unless they get their timing exactly right. And they'll get a lot of abuse for trying.
This (Matt Yglesias vi Brad Delong) has absolutely annoyed the arse off me, as someone who spent 30 years working on financial markets. The incentives in financial markets do not *remotely* work like this.
October 30, 2025 at 2:31 PM
The entire story of the GFC is people working in markets doing the exact opposite because all the incentives pointed in that direction. No one is rewarded for correctly seeing a risk unless they get their timing exactly right. And they'll get a lot of abuse for trying.
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Some thoughts on the Kruger press conference on reforming government, and Reform in government
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/dann...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/dann...
October 30, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Some thoughts on the Kruger press conference on reforming government, and Reform in government
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/dann...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/dann...
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Wrote about the dominance of "victims" in our political discourse, which included this fab chart @owenwntr.bsky.social www.economist.com/britain/2025...
October 30, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Wrote about the dominance of "victims" in our political discourse, which included this fab chart @owenwntr.bsky.social www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
There's lots more in the blog, including why it's not as a simple as "non-commodity costs are all down to net zero" either.
Thanks to @mashley.bsky.social for doing a lot of the analysis behind this (which you'll hopefully see more of soon!)
Thanks to @mashley.bsky.social for doing a lot of the analysis behind this (which you'll hopefully see more of soon!)
Is gas still the reason energy bills are so high?
Despite rising non-commodity costs on energy bills, high gas prices remain the primary reason for expensive energy for most British households, making the switch to homegrown energy a top priority
www.nesta.org.uk
October 30, 2025 at 10:44 AM
There's lots more in the blog, including why it's not as a simple as "non-commodity costs are all down to net zero" either.
Thanks to @mashley.bsky.social for doing a lot of the analysis behind this (which you'll hopefully see more of soon!)
Thanks to @mashley.bsky.social for doing a lot of the analysis behind this (which you'll hopefully see more of soon!)
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
The Government released it's Carbon Budget Delivery Plan this afternoon, the first chance this Government has had to set out how it wants to reach net zero.
For the first time, it adds up. But the decisions the Government is making on how to make it add up are far more important
For the first time, it adds up. But the decisions the Government is making on how to make it add up are far more important
October 30, 2025 at 12:19 PM
The Government released it's Carbon Budget Delivery Plan this afternoon, the first chance this Government has had to set out how it wants to reach net zero.
For the first time, it adds up. But the decisions the Government is making on how to make it add up are far more important
For the first time, it adds up. But the decisions the Government is making on how to make it add up are far more important
DESNZ have just published the "Carbon budget and growth delivery plan". Let's have a look at what it says about heat and buildings.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Carbon budget and growth delivery plan
The Carbon Budget and Growth Delivery Plan sets out how the government meets its statutory carbon budgets and secure the benefits of this transition for people and businesses.
www.gov.uk
October 29, 2025 at 3:46 PM
DESNZ have just published the "Carbon budget and growth delivery plan". Let's have a look at what it says about heat and buildings.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
www.gov.uk/government/p...
This is such an awesome piece of research and I'm genuinely excited that we can finally share it.
We have the results of a cool new trial out today, a collaboration between Nesta and OVO.
I'll put some key charts in a thread, but the tl;dr is:
- 58 customers let us operate their heat pump remotely
- We flexed the heat pumps to lower the cost of electricity
- Most people were fine with it
I'll put some key charts in a thread, but the tl;dr is:
- 58 customers let us operate their heat pump remotely
- We flexed the heat pumps to lower the cost of electricity
- Most people were fine with it
The future of heat
How to drive decarbonisation with innovative tariffs and automated flexibility
www.nesta.org.uk
October 24, 2025 at 1:19 PM
This is such an awesome piece of research and I'm genuinely excited that we can finally share it.
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
My colleague @mashley.bsky.social argued recently that directly reducing electricity bills (to reverse the levies) may be a better use of government money than cutting VAT.
Why? Because it opens up an affordable route to get off gas and further lower bills, via electric heating
Why? Because it opens up an affordable route to get off gas and further lower bills, via electric heating
Is removing VAT really the best way to cut energy bills?
Targeting electricity bills, subsidising bill-funded schemes, or a one-off debt forgiveness program offer more effective, fair, and sustainable solutions
www.nesta.org.uk
October 16, 2025 at 4:45 PM
My colleague @mashley.bsky.social argued recently that directly reducing electricity bills (to reverse the levies) may be a better use of government money than cutting VAT.
Why? Because it opens up an affordable route to get off gas and further lower bills, via electric heating
Why? Because it opens up an affordable route to get off gas and further lower bills, via electric heating
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Probably worth injecting some context into this headline.
There are problems in non-commodity costs at the moment, granted. However, Octopus is being really crafty choosing a 4-year horizon to make this (actually quite dubious*) claim.
See below.
www.theguardian.com/money/2025/o...
There are problems in non-commodity costs at the moment, granted. However, Octopus is being really crafty choosing a 4-year horizon to make this (actually quite dubious*) claim.
See below.
www.theguardian.com/money/2025/o...
Energy bills likely to rise by 20% in next four years, says Britain’s biggest supplier
MPs told that even if wholesale prices plummet, consumers face higher bills owing to costs of government policies
www.theguardian.com
October 16, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Probably worth injecting some context into this headline.
There are problems in non-commodity costs at the moment, granted. However, Octopus is being really crafty choosing a 4-year horizon to make this (actually quite dubious*) claim.
See below.
www.theguardian.com/money/2025/o...
There are problems in non-commodity costs at the moment, granted. However, Octopus is being really crafty choosing a 4-year horizon to make this (actually quite dubious*) claim.
See below.
www.theguardian.com/money/2025/o...
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
There’s not much to say about the solid wall insulation failures that hasn’t already been said. A diabolical policy failure that wasted money and harmed people.
But one thing I will add is: I think it highlights the need for more state delivery capacity on warm homes, not just regulation
🧵
But one thing I will add is: I think it highlights the need for more state delivery capacity on warm homes, not just regulation
🧵
Almost all external insulation fitted under Tory scheme needs repair or replacing, report finds
Homeowners who took advantage of government programmes left with cladding likely to cause damp
www.theguardian.com
October 14, 2025 at 9:25 AM
There’s not much to say about the solid wall insulation failures that hasn’t already been said. A diabolical policy failure that wasted money and harmed people.
But one thing I will add is: I think it highlights the need for more state delivery capacity on warm homes, not just regulation
🧵
But one thing I will add is: I think it highlights the need for more state delivery capacity on warm homes, not just regulation
🧵
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Theresa May: “To row back now would be a catastrophic mistake for while that consensus is being tested, the science remains the same.” 🎯 💯
https://www.ft.com/content/fdcba944-8fd0-4cf0-bfbd-6bfbb2256987 via @ft
https://www.ft.com/content/fdcba944-8fd0-4cf0-bfbd-6bfbb2256987 via @ft
Theresa May hits out at Badenoch’s pledge to ditch flagship UK climate change law
Former prime minister warned Tory leader’s move would be ‘catastrophic mistake’
www.ft.com
October 3, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Theresa May: “To row back now would be a catastrophic mistake for while that consensus is being tested, the science remains the same.” 🎯 💯
https://www.ft.com/content/fdcba944-8fd0-4cf0-bfbd-6bfbb2256987 via @ft
https://www.ft.com/content/fdcba944-8fd0-4cf0-bfbd-6bfbb2256987 via @ft