Marcus Shepheard
@mashley.bsky.social
Formerly @instituteforgov.bsky.social and @thecccuk.bsky.social, currently @nestauk.bsky.social, estwhile evolutionary biologist.
"The intersection of policy and donuts" - @jillongovt.bsky.social
"The intersection of policy and donuts" - @jillongovt.bsky.social
Pinned
Marcus Shepheard
@mashley.bsky.social
· Nov 14
Appreciate all the people who've followed me over the past week or so, welcome to Bluesky!
I've really benefitted from starter packs as this network grows. So I've made one of my own to help new arrivals find other interesting people. Please share, and let me know who's missing
go.bsky.app/Gq8LXLp
I've really benefitted from starter packs as this network grows. So I've made one of my own to help new arrivals find other interesting people. Please share, and let me know who's missing
go.bsky.app/Gq8LXLp
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Imagine! How could wind and solar ever compete with fossil fuel electricity across an entire year, across an entire block of 450 million people!?😉
January 22, 2026 at 10:00 AM
Imagine! How could wind and solar ever compete with fossil fuel electricity across an entire year, across an entire block of 450 million people!?😉
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
After half a decade of chopping and changing on home upgrade schemes, the Warm Homes Plan should see a more consistent Government approach into the late 2020s.
As well as ensuring stable funding, the Plan will also see all programs funded centrally.
More on the Warm Homes plan➡️ buff.ly/QJ2881G
As well as ensuring stable funding, the Plan will also see all programs funded centrally.
More on the Warm Homes plan➡️ buff.ly/QJ2881G
January 22, 2026 at 9:52 AM
After half a decade of chopping and changing on home upgrade schemes, the Warm Homes Plan should see a more consistent Government approach into the late 2020s.
As well as ensuring stable funding, the Plan will also see all programs funded centrally.
More on the Warm Homes plan➡️ buff.ly/QJ2881G
As well as ensuring stable funding, the Plan will also see all programs funded centrally.
More on the Warm Homes plan➡️ buff.ly/QJ2881G
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Don't know if this sort of rhetoric has caught up with the fact that Reform's base are the most dependent on welfare of any party's
January 21, 2026 at 9:08 AM
Don't know if this sort of rhetoric has caught up with the fact that Reform's base are the most dependent on welfare of any party's
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
🇬🇧 The Warm Homes Plan is a welcome step towards smart, low-carbon tech playing a central role in home upgrades.
⚡🏠 As empirical backing for that shift, our research shows that heat pumps cut carbon ~70%, while solar + batteries can slash bills for fuel-poor households (even below zero in summer).
⚡🏠 As empirical backing for that shift, our research shows that heat pumps cut carbon ~70%, while solar + batteries can slash bills for fuel-poor households (even below zero in summer).
January 21, 2026 at 4:26 PM
🇬🇧 The Warm Homes Plan is a welcome step towards smart, low-carbon tech playing a central role in home upgrades.
⚡🏠 As empirical backing for that shift, our research shows that heat pumps cut carbon ~70%, while solar + batteries can slash bills for fuel-poor households (even below zero in summer).
⚡🏠 As empirical backing for that shift, our research shows that heat pumps cut carbon ~70%, while solar + batteries can slash bills for fuel-poor households (even below zero in summer).
Happy Warm Homes Plan day (for those who celebrate).
We have been working through the plan here at @nestauk.bsky.social, and we have some thoughts.
More numbers and analysis will follow!
www.nesta.org.uk/blog/how-wil...
We have been working through the plan here at @nestauk.bsky.social, and we have some thoughts.
More numbers and analysis will follow!
www.nesta.org.uk/blog/how-wil...
How will the Warm Homes Plan change home heating?
Prioritising electric technologies like heat pumps and solar, and backed by £15 billion investment, the plan will mandate minimum energy efficiency standards for rented homes and create the new Warm H...
www.nesta.org.uk
January 21, 2026 at 4:17 PM
Happy Warm Homes Plan day (for those who celebrate).
We have been working through the plan here at @nestauk.bsky.social, and we have some thoughts.
More numbers and analysis will follow!
www.nesta.org.uk/blog/how-wil...
We have been working through the plan here at @nestauk.bsky.social, and we have some thoughts.
More numbers and analysis will follow!
www.nesta.org.uk/blog/how-wil...
This wasn't the remake of Speed (1994) that we wanted or expected, but perhaps it's the one we deserved.
I just woke up from a nap and somehow while I was asleep, everyone on the bus has figured out we are not going to the right place
January 20, 2026 at 11:08 AM
This wasn't the remake of Speed (1994) that we wanted or expected, but perhaps it's the one we deserved.
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Córy Doctorow with another verbal bullseye: pluralistic.net/2026/01/13/n...
January 18, 2026 at 5:29 PM
Córy Doctorow with another verbal bullseye: pluralistic.net/2026/01/13/n...
Like Stephen, I pity GRRM. The issue is that he keeps making promises that keep fans invested, despite it being clear for years that he can't finish.
The growing body of ASOIF work (that isn't finishing the main series) increasingly looks like either an indulgence, a coping mechanism, or a grift.
The growing body of ASOIF work (that isn't finishing the main series) increasingly looks like either an indulgence, a coping mechanism, or a grift.
Now, I, personally, think he would be *happier* if he just came to terms with the fact the books can’t be finished. Too many factions, too many narrators, and the perspective means you can only move the pieces across the board glacially.
January 19, 2026 at 2:13 PM
Like Stephen, I pity GRRM. The issue is that he keeps making promises that keep fans invested, despite it being clear for years that he can't finish.
The growing body of ASOIF work (that isn't finishing the main series) increasingly looks like either an indulgence, a coping mechanism, or a grift.
The growing body of ASOIF work (that isn't finishing the main series) increasingly looks like either an indulgence, a coping mechanism, or a grift.
Unsurprisingly, AI companions may not be a great idea in practice. This is high quality reporting on an issue that's only going to get more prevalent in the coming years.
NEW: In January 2024, a man purchased Meta's newly AI-infused smart glasses.
He went on to experience a devastating break with reality that played out across Meta platforms — with Meta AI as his companion, entertaining and affirming his worsening delusional beliefs.
futurism.com/artificial-i...
He went on to experience a devastating break with reality that played out across Meta platforms — with Meta AI as his companion, entertaining and affirming his worsening delusional beliefs.
futurism.com/artificial-i...
January 18, 2026 at 4:56 PM
Unsurprisingly, AI companions may not be a great idea in practice. This is high quality reporting on an issue that's only going to get more prevalent in the coming years.
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment reckons the Institute of Economic Affairs' report on the cost of net zero is so 'absurd' it should be withdrawn. www.businessgreen.com/news/4524262...
'Misleading': Institute of Economic Affairs faces calls to withdraw controversial report on net zero costs
Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment writes to right wing think tank, urging it to correct 'clearly absurd' claims about the total cost of meeting net zero targets
www.businessgreen.com
January 15, 2026 at 1:05 PM
The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment reckons the Institute of Economic Affairs' report on the cost of net zero is so 'absurd' it should be withdrawn. www.businessgreen.com/news/4524262...
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
My annual decarbonization presentation is here.
200 slides, covering everything from water levels in Lake Gatún to sulfur dioxide emissions to ESG fund flows to Chinese auto exports to artificial intelligence. www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations
200 slides, covering everything from water levels in Lake Gatún to sulfur dioxide emissions to ESG fund flows to Chinese auto exports to artificial intelligence. www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations
January 30, 2025 at 12:28 PM
My annual decarbonization presentation is here.
200 slides, covering everything from water levels in Lake Gatún to sulfur dioxide emissions to ESG fund flows to Chinese auto exports to artificial intelligence. www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations
200 slides, covering everything from water levels in Lake Gatún to sulfur dioxide emissions to ESG fund flows to Chinese auto exports to artificial intelligence. www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
1/ Some wild numbers have been used in the media this week for “the cost of net zero”.
Reports have said that net zero will “cost” £4.5 trillion, £7.6 trillion – the list goes on.
None of these are the cost of net zero – a quick explainer 🧵 on why
Reports have said that net zero will “cost” £4.5 trillion, £7.6 trillion – the list goes on.
None of these are the cost of net zero – a quick explainer 🧵 on why
January 13, 2026 at 7:32 PM
1/ Some wild numbers have been used in the media this week for “the cost of net zero”.
Reports have said that net zero will “cost” £4.5 trillion, £7.6 trillion – the list goes on.
None of these are the cost of net zero – a quick explainer 🧵 on why
Reports have said that net zero will “cost” £4.5 trillion, £7.6 trillion – the list goes on.
None of these are the cost of net zero – a quick explainer 🧵 on why
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
A couple of thoughts on AR7 one on the commentary and one on the results:
Commentary: comparing strike price to wholesale is pretty redundant. Wholesale now has enough wind volume cannibalising prices in it to make it essentially artificial (and this will only get more prominent). So stop it.
Commentary: comparing strike price to wholesale is pretty redundant. Wholesale now has enough wind volume cannibalising prices in it to make it essentially artificial (and this will only get more prominent). So stop it.
January 14, 2026 at 9:20 AM
A couple of thoughts on AR7 one on the commentary and one on the results:
Commentary: comparing strike price to wholesale is pretty redundant. Wholesale now has enough wind volume cannibalising prices in it to make it essentially artificial (and this will only get more prominent). So stop it.
Commentary: comparing strike price to wholesale is pretty redundant. Wholesale now has enough wind volume cannibalising prices in it to make it essentially artificial (and this will only get more prominent). So stop it.
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Good set of results on offshore wind auction contracts – the DESNZ team should be praised for balancing the need to deliver a lot of new capacity with the need to keep prices down www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Offshore windfarm contracts to fuel 12m homes in Great Britain after record auction
Subsidies guaranteeing price for each unit of clean electricity generated given to 12 renewables projects
www.theguardian.com
January 14, 2026 at 9:28 AM
Good set of results on offshore wind auction contracts – the DESNZ team should be praised for balancing the need to deliver a lot of new capacity with the need to keep prices down www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
AGI may never happen. But in some tasks, 'as good as human' intelligence does already exist - yet there is still one vitally important thing that AI can't take, which is responsibility. Some thoughts on that in my column this week:
AI cannot take responsibility for human faults
As Grok shows, decisions have consequences and someone needs to be able to answer for them
www.ft.com
January 13, 2026 at 5:16 PM
AGI may never happen. But in some tasks, 'as good as human' intelligence does already exist - yet there is still one vitally important thing that AI can't take, which is responsibility. Some thoughts on that in my column this week:
Any idea why the nation decided that it can no longer trust that brand Nadhim?
ReTories are telling voters, really quite directly, that this is now a rebranding exercise, a quick change of costume.
Zahawi on why Badenoch won't be the next PM: "She's got the baggage of a defunct brand; a brand that the nation has decided it can no longer trust." ~AA
Zahawi on why Badenoch won't be the next PM: "She's got the baggage of a defunct brand; a brand that the nation has decided it can no longer trust." ~AA
January 12, 2026 at 3:35 PM
Any idea why the nation decided that it can no longer trust that brand Nadhim?
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Here's what a map of crime by population actually looks like. It doesn't fit the 'London is a hellhole' narrative.
January 12, 2026 at 8:50 AM
Here's what a map of crime by population actually looks like. It doesn't fit the 'London is a hellhole' narrative.
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Kemi, this is just a population density map
January 12, 2026 at 8:01 AM
Kemi, this is just a population density map
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Two lists for new joiners to Bluesky who want sensible and thoughtful people in their feed.
UK:
bsky.app/profile/did:...
UK:
bsky.app/profile/did:...
January 9, 2026 at 10:49 AM
Two lists for new joiners to Bluesky who want sensible and thoughtful people in their feed.
UK:
bsky.app/profile/did:...
UK:
bsky.app/profile/did:...
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
have a column on this in the next issue of the New World - between stuff like below and people turning up to eg non-existent fireworks or Christmas markets, I wonder if AI companies won't regret releasing their products too soon: people can be lazy and/or forgiving but they don't like feeling dumb!
my 75yo mother told me last night that she’s planning to delete Instagram and Facebook because she’s sick of not being able to tell what’s AI and what’s not, and I genuinely don’t think tech companies have reckoned with this kind of move as an actual possibility
January 6, 2026 at 11:54 AM
have a column on this in the next issue of the New World - between stuff like below and people turning up to eg non-existent fireworks or Christmas markets, I wonder if AI companies won't regret releasing their products too soon: people can be lazy and/or forgiving but they don't like feeling dumb!
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
She's at it again! Another outstanding Substack by @laurenleek.eu, this time looking under the hood of AirBnB listings in London. Amazing analysis, with important policy implications, e.g. this quote
open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...
open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...
January 5, 2026 at 10:19 AM
She's at it again! Another outstanding Substack by @laurenleek.eu, this time looking under the hood of AirBnB listings in London. Amazing analysis, with important policy implications, e.g. this quote
open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...
open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
“Housing developers in this country have a track record of pushing back against requirements that enhance energy performance of homes. We have seen this with insulation, heat pumps and other technologies. Ultimately, it will be to the detriment of the homebuyer.”
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Ministers may cut green tech mandate from new homes regulations in England
Critics say removing battery installation requirement will reduce amount homebuyers save on energy bills
www.theguardian.com
January 2, 2026 at 9:34 AM
“Housing developers in this country have a track record of pushing back against requirements that enhance energy performance of homes. We have seen this with insulation, heat pumps and other technologies. Ultimately, it will be to the detriment of the homebuyer.”
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
suspect a big reason why many academics and others who work in areas where getting facts RIGHT is key are disinterested in using LLMs for research:
they’ve tried it, they keep noticing major errors in output, and they conclude that having to verify all that doesn’t actually save them time.
they’ve tried it, they keep noticing major errors in output, and they conclude that having to verify all that doesn’t actually save them time.
December 21, 2025 at 4:16 PM
suspect a big reason why many academics and others who work in areas where getting facts RIGHT is key are disinterested in using LLMs for research:
they’ve tried it, they keep noticing major errors in output, and they conclude that having to verify all that doesn’t actually save them time.
they’ve tried it, they keep noticing major errors in output, and they conclude that having to verify all that doesn’t actually save them time.
It's not the way I expected to confirm that cloudflare is currently down, but it works
December 5, 2025 at 9:02 AM
It's not the way I expected to confirm that cloudflare is currently down, but it works
Turns out that Idiocracy was the most prophetic work since the Bible
Tomorrow Grimes will DJ a livestream of immortality influencer Bryan Johnson tripping on shrooms to determine its effect on longevity. Mr. Beast and the CEO of Salesforce will be there too.
Grimes DJing Immortality Influencer's Shroom Trip With Special Guest Mr. Beast
Grimes is a fan of Bryan Johnson, the multimillionaire and immortality influencer who spends his time trying to fight death. He is perhaps best known for undergoing plasma transfusions with donations ...
stereogum.com
December 1, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Turns out that Idiocracy was the most prophetic work since the Bible