Adam Corlett
@adamcorlett.bsky.social
Civil servant on DWP's Pensions Commission, from December 2025 until its final report in 2027. Tweets will be infrequent and objective.
Here is the Government's new animal welfare strategy: www.gov.uk/government/p...
Animal welfare strategy for England
www.gov.uk
December 22, 2025 at 11:25 AM
Here is the Government's new animal welfare strategy: www.gov.uk/government/p...
We have pipped them on population though very similar. I think they're slightly ahead on GDP per capita, but only slightly, with UK median household income actually higher. They live a bit longer but are a bit less happy...
December 1, 2025 at 1:29 PM
We have pipped them on population though very similar. I think they're slightly ahead on GDP per capita, but only slightly, with UK median household income actually higher. They live a bit longer but are a bit less happy...
It's been a busy season of budget analysis for me. I will now be a lot quieter for a while: listening, reading, fact-finding, pondering. Happy holidays!
December 1, 2025 at 9:39 AM
It's been a busy season of budget analysis for me. I will now be a lot quieter for a while: listening, reading, fact-finding, pondering. Happy holidays!
Yeah, though my point about size was that it can be easier to have very high GDP/head if you are a small population: you only need one or two successful niches - but that doesn't go as far with 10x as many people
December 1, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Yeah, though my point about size was that it can be easier to have very high GDP/head if you are a small population: you only need one or two successful niches - but that doesn't go as far with 10x as many people
We are richer than ever and there are only two countries that are both as rich per person and as populous as the UK: the US and Germany. While America might be richer, we live longer and equally happy lives – and even the safest US state has a higher homicide rate than London.
November 30, 2025 at 10:16 PM
We are richer than ever and there are only two countries that are both as rich per person and as populous as the UK: the US and Germany. While America might be richer, we live longer and equally happy lives – and even the safest US state has a higher homicide rate than London.
Don't Panic: Britain is not broken. The UK can do better, but we shouldn't be too gloomy about things. If you look at the stats, there's a lot to be happy with (including how happy we are): adamcorlett.com/2025/11/30/d...
Don’t Panic: Britain is not broken – adamcorlett.com
adamcorlett.com
November 30, 2025 at 9:05 PM
Don't Panic: Britain is not broken. The UK can do better, but we shouldn't be too gloomy about things. If you look at the stats, there's a lot to be happy with (including how happy we are): adamcorlett.com/2025/11/30/d...
There is almost no trace of the Budget on bbc.co.uk/news – presumably HMT will count that as a win
November 28, 2025 at 2:00 PM
There is almost no trace of the Budget on bbc.co.uk/news – presumably HMT will count that as a win
The number of children in poverty has probably hit new record highs this year, but will be significantly cut in 2026-27. New government projections: www.gov.uk/government/p...
November 27, 2025 at 3:11 PM
The number of children in poverty has probably hit new record highs this year, but will be significantly cut in 2026-27. New government projections: www.gov.uk/government/p...
I think people should be more confident than before the Budget, even if still suspicious
bsky.app/profile/adam...
bsky.app/profile/adam...
Hopefully a 1p Fuel Duty rise in September is a good way to break the taboo, and there's no Budget before then. It is less of a fiscal fiction than it has been, but we'll see... And maybe the approach of small, quarterly, automatic increases could be continued beyond 2026-27, instead of annual jumps
November 27, 2025 at 12:30 PM
I think people should be more confident than before the Budget, even if still suspicious
bsky.app/profile/adam...
bsky.app/profile/adam...
Hopefully a 1p Fuel Duty rise in September is a good way to break the taboo, and there's no Budget before then. It is less of a fiscal fiction than it has been, but we'll see... And maybe the approach of small, quarterly, automatic increases could be continued beyond 2026-27, instead of annual jumps
November 27, 2025 at 11:57 AM
Hopefully a 1p Fuel Duty rise in September is a good way to break the taboo, and there's no Budget before then. It is less of a fiscal fiction than it has been, but we'll see... And maybe the approach of small, quarterly, automatic increases could be continued beyond 2026-27, instead of annual jumps
The 'High Value Council Tax Surcharge' is a big step to making annual property tax more proportional to value. Most homes already pay higher rates than mansions will. Unlike Council Tax it will be based on recent values, with five-yearly revaluation(?), and will be paid by owners not occupiers.
November 27, 2025 at 10:35 AM
The 'High Value Council Tax Surcharge' is a big step to making annual property tax more proportional to value. Most homes already pay higher rates than mansions will. Unlike Council Tax it will be based on recent values, with five-yearly revaluation(?), and will be paid by owners not occupiers.
Reposted by Adam Corlett
Big news on Fuel Duty - the 5p cut will be removed gradually from September. A good way to end this giveaway without pushing up inflation
November 26, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Big news on Fuel Duty - the 5p cut will be removed gradually from September. A good way to end this giveaway without pushing up inflation
Reposted by Adam Corlett
💥 Govt says fuel duty to *go up* from next September.
In the past the OBR has assumed that fuel duty would start to rise after a one-year freeze.
This time, the govt has said explicitly that it will only be frozen for five months, and will start increasing it after that.
In the past the OBR has assumed that fuel duty would start to rise after a one-year freeze.
This time, the govt has said explicitly that it will only be frozen for five months, and will start increasing it after that.
November 26, 2025 at 12:46 PM
💥 Govt says fuel duty to *go up* from next September.
In the past the OBR has assumed that fuel duty would start to rise after a one-year freeze.
This time, the govt has said explicitly that it will only be frozen for five months, and will start increasing it after that.
In the past the OBR has assumed that fuel duty would start to rise after a one-year freeze.
This time, the govt has said explicitly that it will only be frozen for five months, and will start increasing it after that.
To be optimistic, I don't think this year's £200 VED rise for EVs has deterred buyers?
November 25, 2025 at 4:34 PM
To be optimistic, I don't think this year's £200 VED rise for EVs has deterred buyers?
It sounds like this Budget won't cut VAT on public EV charging, but will launch a review that might lead to doing it in Budget 2026
Reeves to announce £1.5bn boost in EV subsidies amid pay-per-mile concerns
Reeves to announce £1.5bn boost in EV subsidies amid pay-per-mile concerns
Industry experts welcome extra incentives but fear a consultation on a mileage tax sends mixed messages
Drivers will be able to claim government subsidies to cut the cost of buying a new electric car until 2030 under plans to be announced by Rachel Reeves at next week’s budget.
The chancellor will unveil an extra £1.3bn for subsidies for new electric vehicles (EVs) and a further £200m for charging points, as she attempts to prevent the market for clean cars drying up amid concerns about a new pay-per-mile tax. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
November 23, 2025 at 7:29 PM
It sounds like this Budget won't cut VAT on public EV charging, but will launch a review that might lead to doing it in Budget 2026
Today I learned that NOx pollution from vehicles (esp. old diesels) and boilers interferes with insect scent. Yet another reason to electrify everything.
November 22, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Today I learned that NOx pollution from vehicles (esp. old diesels) and boilers interferes with insect scent. Yet another reason to electrify everything.
Reposted by Adam Corlett
Everybody loves brownfield-first. But where exactly should we densify our cities? And how?
Our new report shows Britain's density gap is wider in the biggest cities outside London than in the capital - and the inner city 'urban cores' up to 5km out from the centre are to blame.
Our new report shows Britain's density gap is wider in the biggest cities outside London than in the capital - and the inner city 'urban cores' up to 5km out from the centre are to blame.
November 20, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Everybody loves brownfield-first. But where exactly should we densify our cities? And how?
Our new report shows Britain's density gap is wider in the biggest cities outside London than in the capital - and the inner city 'urban cores' up to 5km out from the centre are to blame.
Our new report shows Britain's density gap is wider in the biggest cities outside London than in the capital - and the inner city 'urban cores' up to 5km out from the centre are to blame.
Reposted by Adam Corlett
It's *possible* the Budget could be very green:
🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas
🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises
🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support
🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping
🟢 Help lower interest rates
🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas
🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises
🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support
🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping
🟢 Help lower interest rates
November 19, 2025 at 8:33 PM
It's *possible* the Budget could be very green:
🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas
🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises
🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support
🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping
🟢 Help lower interest rates
🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas
🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises
🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support
🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping
🟢 Help lower interest rates
At the pessimistic end of the scale, at this point it's also totally possible that the Budget could just:
🔴 Cut gas costs more than electricity costs
🔴 Raise taxes on EVs to fund Fuel Duty cuts
🔴 Cut gas costs more than electricity costs
🔴 Raise taxes on EVs to fund Fuel Duty cuts
November 19, 2025 at 8:33 PM
At the pessimistic end of the scale, at this point it's also totally possible that the Budget could just:
🔴 Cut gas costs more than electricity costs
🔴 Raise taxes on EVs to fund Fuel Duty cuts
🔴 Cut gas costs more than electricity costs
🔴 Raise taxes on EVs to fund Fuel Duty cuts
It's *possible* the Budget could be very green:
🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas
🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises
🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support
🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping
🟢 Help lower interest rates
🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas
🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises
🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support
🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping
🟢 Help lower interest rates
November 19, 2025 at 8:33 PM
It's *possible* the Budget could be very green:
🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas
🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises
🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support
🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping
🟢 Help lower interest rates
🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas
🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises
🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support
🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping
🟢 Help lower interest rates
A very worthwhile use of AI would be to work out when something on video footage was worth notifying the police (and owners). In future, 30 seconds into this, the police could already be aware, drones dispatched, number plates flagged and maybe even the car bricked. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Keyless car theft devices selling online for £20,000, BBC finds
It is not illegal currently to own the gadgets but the government has promised to ban them.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 19, 2025 at 10:12 AM
A very worthwhile use of AI would be to work out when something on video footage was worth notifying the police (and owners). In future, 30 seconds into this, the police could already be aware, drones dispatched, number plates flagged and maybe even the car bricked. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
This is a common take, but I think it rather depends on whether the changes are adding new unevenness to the tax system OR smoothing over existing unevenness
The United Kingdom really does have an unnecessarily complex tax system and adding c£20bn of fun little revenue raisers will not help. Today's newsletter:
Budget U-turn hammers UK competitiveness
Risky to raise revenue via tweaks and novel taxes, especially through rushed changes
www.ft.com
November 14, 2025 at 2:41 PM
This is a common take, but I think it rather depends on whether the changes are adding new unevenness to the tax system OR smoothing over existing unevenness
One likely extra reason for this £50k bump is that the basic rate of dividend tax is only 8.75% – 25 points lower than the higher rate of 33.75% – so company owner-managers will plan their finances around that.
NEW - we've data showing huge numbers of people reducing their income to avoid high marginal income tax rates. Not just at the £100k point (as previously reported). But at the £50k point:
November 14, 2025 at 1:49 PM
One likely extra reason for this £50k bump is that the basic rate of dividend tax is only 8.75% – 25 points lower than the higher rate of 33.75% – so company owner-managers will plan their finances around that.
To be pedantic, that's not true of changing salary sacrifice: that's about National Insurance relief
November 14, 2025 at 11:24 AM
To be pedantic, that's not true of changing salary sacrifice: that's about National Insurance relief
I'm proud to have received the innovation prize at last night's @smartthinking.bsky.social awards – for my and my colleagues' work producing an alternative to Labour Force Survey stats www.resolutionfoundation.org/our-work/est...
November 13, 2025 at 10:42 AM
I'm proud to have received the innovation prize at last night's @smartthinking.bsky.social awards – for my and my colleagues' work producing an alternative to Labour Force Survey stats www.resolutionfoundation.org/our-work/est...