Adam Corlett
@adamcorlett.bsky.social
Principal Economist at the Resolution Foundation 🇬🇧 Views my own.
For prosperity; against poverty, pollution and animal suffering
For prosperity; against poverty, pollution and animal suffering
Two reasons to focus Budget tax rises on non-wage income. 1. Tax rates on wages have long been higher than for other income. 2. The employer NI rise was a big tax wedge rise for most employees: even if non-wage taxes go up by 2p in April, wages would have had the biggest 2024-2026 effective tax rise
November 8, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Two reasons to focus Budget tax rises on non-wage income. 1. Tax rates on wages have long been higher than for other income. 2. The employer NI rise was a big tax wedge rise for most employees: even if non-wage taxes go up by 2p in April, wages would have had the biggest 2024-2026 effective tax rise
Today's Bank of England outlook continues to support the idea that the OBR's March wage forecast is too low – despite the coming productivity downgrade. e.g. OBR forecast 2.3% pay growth for 2026, but the Bank and businesses they talk to expect ~3.5%. This matters a lot for the fiscal outlook.
November 6, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Today's Bank of England outlook continues to support the idea that the OBR's March wage forecast is too low – despite the coming productivity downgrade. e.g. OBR forecast 2.3% pay growth for 2026, but the Bank and businesses they talk to expect ~3.5%. This matters a lot for the fiscal outlook.
5. Ensure the tax system is helping with decarbonisation, especially through lowering the price of electricity (the CCC's #1 recommendation), and if possible making carbon pricing more consistent in other ways too (e.g. for international shipping and long-haul flights)
November 4, 2025 at 3:16 PM
5. Ensure the tax system is helping with decarbonisation, especially through lowering the price of electricity (the CCC's #1 recommendation), and if possible making carbon pricing more consistent in other ways too (e.g. for international shipping and long-haul flights)
1. Tackle the anti-employee tax bias. Self-employment income is under-taxed by £9bn a year compared to wages, while the basic rate of dividend tax is also low by any standard. Both distort how people work.
November 4, 2025 at 3:16 PM
1. Tackle the anti-employee tax bias. Self-employment income is under-taxed by £9bn a year compared to wages, while the basic rate of dividend tax is also low by any standard. Both distort how people work.
Real fuel prices and fuel duty are historically low, and would remain so even after scheduled increases in Spring. Instead of fuel duty freezes, the Chancellor should focus cost of living support on bringing down electricity prices, which are definitely not historically low.
November 4, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Real fuel prices and fuel duty are historically low, and would remain so even after scheduled increases in Spring. Instead of fuel duty freezes, the Chancellor should focus cost of living support on bringing down electricity prices, which are definitely not historically low.
On the subject of how many households are "net recipients", this new chart of ONS data suggests that indirect taxes have plummeted. But I suspect this is mostly due to this survey missing more and more spending each year - rendering any related time series fairly useless.
October 27, 2025 at 11:21 AM
On the subject of how many households are "net recipients", this new chart of ONS data suggests that indirect taxes have plummeted. But I suspect this is mostly due to this survey missing more and more spending each year - rendering any related time series fairly useless.
Taxes on the typical salary are now 55% higher than on self-employment income - a record gap. You're better off taking a self-employed role even if it's ~13% less productive. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
October 27, 2025 at 10:48 AM
Taxes on the typical salary are now 55% higher than on self-employment income - a record gap. You're better off taking a self-employed role even if it's ~13% less productive. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Lots of design possibilities here. But we suggested linking annual VED for EVs sold in future (not existing cars) to *weight* and to *miles driven* each year (both of which correlate with the relevant harms). Weight also correlates with car price, helping protect those with lower income/wealth.
October 20, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Lots of design possibilities here. But we suggested linking annual VED for EVs sold in future (not existing cars) to *weight* and to *miles driven* each year (both of which correlate with the relevant harms). Weight also correlates with car price, helping protect those with lower income/wealth.
And it's fair to ask: what is the EV VED £195 a year flat charge for? What externalities is it addressing? For EVs, there's no link to road use or footprint, congestion or wear, brake/tyre pollution, surface/aerodynamic noise, safety, but these are all public concerns.
October 20, 2025 at 1:14 PM
And it's fair to ask: what is the EV VED £195 a year flat charge for? What externalities is it addressing? For EVs, there's no link to road use or footprint, congestion or wear, brake/tyre pollution, surface/aerodynamic noise, safety, but these are all public concerns.
EV tax is not set up to be distributionally fair. The flat £195 per year is a bit of a poll tax; drivers of brand new cars pay only £10; and those without home charging pay higher electricity VAT. There is the Expensive Car Supplement, but that's a blunt instrument that is rightly being reviewed.
October 20, 2025 at 1:14 PM
EV tax is not set up to be distributionally fair. The flat £195 per year is a bit of a poll tax; drivers of brand new cars pay only £10; and those without home charging pay higher electricity VAT. There is the Expensive Car Supplement, but that's a blunt instrument that is rightly being reviewed.
Surely it's unlikely that VAT on gas will be cut. It would be such a missed opportunity to improve the UK's damagingly high electricity to gas price ratio. There's no shortage of ways to cut electricity bills, to help all households. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
October 19, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Surely it's unlikely that VAT on gas will be cut. It would be such a missed opportunity to improve the UK's damagingly high electricity to gas price ratio. There's no shortage of ways to cut electricity bills, to help all households. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
UK inflation over the past year was very concentrated in April. So perhaps we'll see a big fall in the annual rate in April 2026 (published in May) when that drops out.
October 15, 2025 at 11:07 AM
UK inflation over the past year was very concentrated in April. So perhaps we'll see a big fall in the annual rate in April 2026 (published in May) when that drops out.
Good chart in the FT. Ryanair and its customers face much higher carbon prices than many other airlines, because we basically exempt long-haul flights from the Emissions Trading Scheme. That's unfair and inefficient. The UK+EU should fix this & it may even be a revenue-raising option for #Budget2025
October 7, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Good chart in the FT. Ryanair and its customers face much higher carbon prices than many other airlines, because we basically exempt long-haul flights from the Emissions Trading Scheme. That's unfair and inefficient. The UK+EU should fix this & it may even be a revenue-raising option for #Budget2025
In Q2, UK whole economy investment as a share of GDP was its highest on record (since 1997) and has overtaken Germany's
October 6, 2025 at 12:05 PM
In Q2, UK whole economy investment as a share of GDP was its highest on record (since 1997) and has overtaken Germany's
European egg production is moving quickly to 'in-ovo sexing', rather than the mass culling of male chicks. The US and UK are much further behind. innovateanimalag.org/market-penet...
October 4, 2025 at 1:28 PM
European egg production is moving quickly to 'in-ovo sexing', rather than the mass culling of male chicks. The US and UK are much further behind. innovateanimalag.org/market-penet...
Neat household income chart and pledge tracker from @news.sky.com: news.sky.com/story/keir-s...
October 2, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Neat household income chart and pledge tracker from @news.sky.com: news.sky.com/story/keir-s...
Fiscal credibility matters at #Budget2025. Delivering any Fuel Duty rise at all would help. But 3 changes might make scheduled increases more achievable. 1) Spread out the planned 5p jump; 2) Move from annual to smaller, quarterly changes; 3) Have fixed increases, not higher when inflation is higher
September 26, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Fiscal credibility matters at #Budget2025. Delivering any Fuel Duty rise at all would help. But 3 changes might make scheduled increases more achievable. 1) Spread out the planned 5p jump; 2) Move from annual to smaller, quarterly changes; 3) Have fixed increases, not higher when inflation is higher
It's time to end the Fuel Duty freeze. Otherwise, the annual cost of Fuel Duty cuts by this government will top £5bn by 2029 – making the fiscal challenge even harder, and with big opportunity costs: that's more than the cost of scrapping the two-child limit or options for cutting electricity costs
September 26, 2025 at 12:30 PM
It's time to end the Fuel Duty freeze. Otherwise, the annual cost of Fuel Duty cuts by this government will top £5bn by 2029 – making the fiscal challenge even harder, and with big opportunity costs: that's more than the cost of scrapping the two-child limit or options for cutting electricity costs
Crazy that emails from HMRC, for example, come with a massive link to X
August 10, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Crazy that emails from HMRC, for example, come with a massive link to X
The UC/PIP bill uprates standard UC by 2.3% above inflation in April – so a 6% rise if inflation is 3.7%. A partial undoing of past freezes and a progressive boost to income growth in 2026.
June 30, 2025 at 2:09 PM
The UC/PIP bill uprates standard UC by 2.3% above inflation in April – so a 6% rise if inflation is 3.7%. A partial undoing of past freezes and a progressive boost to income growth in 2026.
Today's figures show Real Household Disposable Income per person grew by 3.1% in 2024-25: the strongest financial year since 2015-16 (albeit helped by unfunded tax cuts).
But Q1 2025 drop supports the idea that strong income growth is unlikely to continue in 2025-26.
But Q1 2025 drop supports the idea that strong income growth is unlikely to continue in 2025-26.
June 30, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Today's figures show Real Household Disposable Income per person grew by 3.1% in 2024-25: the strongest financial year since 2015-16 (albeit helped by unfunded tax cuts).
But Q1 2025 drop supports the idea that strong income growth is unlikely to continue in 2025-26.
But Q1 2025 drop supports the idea that strong income growth is unlikely to continue in 2025-26.
A favourite stat in my new report: there was no household income gap between children and pensioners in the early 2000s, but by 2023 it was over £5,000 – and it's projected to get bigger www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
June 26, 2025 at 4:15 PM
A favourite stat in my new report: there was no household income gap between children and pensioners in the early 2000s, but by 2023 it was over £5,000 – and it's projected to get bigger www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Surprising headline of the day
June 24, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Surprising headline of the day
Hopefully today's Westminster Hall debate will encourage the Government to #EndTheCageAge in its upcoming animal welfare strategy
June 16, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Hopefully today's Westminster Hall debate will encourage the Government to #EndTheCageAge in its upcoming animal welfare strategy
That said, our estimated employment rate trends are awful (even ignoring incomplete May data) www.resolutionfoundation.org/our-work/est...
June 10, 2025 at 12:32 PM
That said, our estimated employment rate trends are awful (even ignoring incomplete May data) www.resolutionfoundation.org/our-work/est...