Ok, but then the >£20bn a year of employer NI pension relief (IFS calls it "extraordinarily generous") must be worth questioning in the short and long term

I don't think the £100k trap is very relevant to the salary sacrifice rumours, as you can still put more money into your pension (to avoid the trap) without SS. And the status quo has random horizontal inequity between different workers based on whose employers have grappled with SS admin

I don't really get the idea that big tax rises for everyone are very sensible but that broadening the tax base slightly - particularly among high earners - is intolerable. HMG needs to raise a lot of money, and this bit of pension tax relief is very generous and very uneven.

Yeah, I think the most plausible related change at this budget would be something on childcare at £100k

Having done some modelling on this, I think that would still be a big net tax cut, unfortunately. Much bigger rate rises / threshold cuts are needed to make it add up - which is surely why HMT hasn't done it so far

I think a middle band would be nice, but it doesn't matter too much (you're no worse off when you become a higher rate payer). Crazier thing is the 62% band from £100-125k, and other oddities

A relevant question is whether they are covered by the Emissions Trading Scheme (unlike car fuel). If they are, there's less argument for fuel duty. If they aren't, that seems unfair. (In practice I think some are and some aren't.)

Based on the latest rumours, they could get ~£20bn from a combo of 2p basic rate tax switch, straight 2p rise for all higher incomes and a threshold freeze extension

Fingers crossed the Treasury will cut VAT on public charging and lower electricity costs at the same time, to help with those concerns

Even with a 3p per mile addition though, EVs could be home-charged and driven for about 5p per mile, compared to ~15p per mile for non-EVs. So still a big financial incentive to switch, especially as up-front costs converge

Mileage is already logged at MOTs. You can see your - or anyone else's - mileage history at www.gov.uk/check-mot-hi...

One thing that's totally under-appreciated is that new cars share incredible amounts of data with the car companies (who can then sell that data for analysis). They know how far you've driven, where you've driven, how many times you've rolled down your windows...

Yeah, I was glossing over the nuance there. But any difficulties need to be grappled with in any case, given the ICE phase-out. And as Motability buys 1 in 5 new cars, it could and should play a really important role in decarbonisation. bsky.app/profile/adam...

I think there's a possible balanced package for the Budget, e.g. this EV charge; scrap pavement tax; cut electricity costs; raise new ICE VED: raise fuel duty; focus Motability on BEVs...

Alongside the ZEV mandate, that would still seem a very solid EV outlook.

Fuel duty is a really good tax though: it is applied easily at a very high level, and it functions not just as a per mile charge but an incentive to have more efficient vehicles and to drive more efficiently. So why not just raise that?

Reporting is unclear about how, if at all, actual mileage would be logged. Maybe HMG is squeamish about any sense of tracking people. But it shouldn't be hard. You can already view anyone's MOT odometer record online; and car co's receive data about everything down to how often you open your windows