Marcus Shepheard
@mashley.bsky.social
Formerly @instituteforgov.bsky.social and @thecccuk.bsky.social, currently @nestauk.bsky.social, estwhile evolutionary biologist.
"The intersection of policy and donuts" - @jillongovt.bsky.social
"The intersection of policy and donuts" - @jillongovt.bsky.social
So all in all, it's a bit of a mess. Some of the other stuff in the briefing (such as means-testing BUS) just seems daft.
The middle class isn't gatekeeping the Boiler Upgrade Scheme. Making it harder to access (without significantly increasing the size of the grant) just means that it does less
The middle class isn't gatekeeping the Boiler Upgrade Scheme. Making it harder to access (without significantly increasing the size of the grant) just means that it does less
November 14, 2025 at 11:57 AM
So all in all, it's a bit of a mess. Some of the other stuff in the briefing (such as means-testing BUS) just seems daft.
The middle class isn't gatekeeping the Boiler Upgrade Scheme. Making it harder to access (without significantly increasing the size of the grant) just means that it does less
The middle class isn't gatekeeping the Boiler Upgrade Scheme. Making it harder to access (without significantly increasing the size of the grant) just means that it does less
Financial Transactions are a niche type of public spending. Departments are much more restricted in how they can use this funding.
The main uses are for loans, or creating an equity stake in something (e.g. a business)
(See HMT's Financial Transaction Control Framework www.gov.uk/government/p...)
The main uses are for loans, or creating an equity stake in something (e.g. a business)
(See HMT's Financial Transaction Control Framework www.gov.uk/government/p...)
November 14, 2025 at 11:57 AM
Financial Transactions are a niche type of public spending. Departments are much more restricted in how they can use this funding.
The main uses are for loans, or creating an equity stake in something (e.g. a business)
(See HMT's Financial Transaction Control Framework www.gov.uk/government/p...)
The main uses are for loans, or creating an equity stake in something (e.g. a business)
(See HMT's Financial Transaction Control Framework www.gov.uk/government/p...)
We think that around 85% of the £8.3bn CDEL has already been (nominally) allocated.
- Social Housing Fund Wave 3: £1.29bn to 2027/28
- Local Grant: £500m to 2027/28
- Heat networks: ~£530m to 2027/28
- Public Sector Decarbonisation: £1.4bn to 2027/28
- BUS: £2.9bn for 2026-30 (estimated)
- Social Housing Fund Wave 3: £1.29bn to 2027/28
- Local Grant: £500m to 2027/28
- Heat networks: ~£530m to 2027/28
- Public Sector Decarbonisation: £1.4bn to 2027/28
- BUS: £2.9bn for 2026-30 (estimated)
November 14, 2025 at 11:57 AM
We think that around 85% of the £8.3bn CDEL has already been (nominally) allocated.
- Social Housing Fund Wave 3: £1.29bn to 2027/28
- Local Grant: £500m to 2027/28
- Heat networks: ~£530m to 2027/28
- Public Sector Decarbonisation: £1.4bn to 2027/28
- BUS: £2.9bn for 2026-30 (estimated)
- Social Housing Fund Wave 3: £1.29bn to 2027/28
- Local Grant: £500m to 2027/28
- Heat networks: ~£530m to 2027/28
- Public Sector Decarbonisation: £1.4bn to 2027/28
- BUS: £2.9bn for 2026-30 (estimated)
As things stand, we're looking at ~£20 billion of spending on homes between 2025/26 and 2029/30.
- £8.2 billion of conventional public spending (the 'Core' CDEL)
- £5 billion of 'Financial Transactions', a more limited type of public spending
- £6.8 billion from the Energy Company Obligation
- £8.2 billion of conventional public spending (the 'Core' CDEL)
- £5 billion of 'Financial Transactions', a more limited type of public spending
- £6.8 billion from the Energy Company Obligation
November 14, 2025 at 11:57 AM
As things stand, we're looking at ~£20 billion of spending on homes between 2025/26 and 2029/30.
- £8.2 billion of conventional public spending (the 'Core' CDEL)
- £5 billion of 'Financial Transactions', a more limited type of public spending
- £6.8 billion from the Energy Company Obligation
- £8.2 billion of conventional public spending (the 'Core' CDEL)
- £5 billion of 'Financial Transactions', a more limited type of public spending
- £6.8 billion from the Energy Company Obligation
The Spending Review allocated £13.2 billion to the Warm Homes Plan. It was listed as the top measure to help address living costs - which makes sense, as upgrading/electrifying homes will deliver the biggest bill savings in the long run.
November 14, 2025 at 11:57 AM
The Spending Review allocated £13.2 billion to the Warm Homes Plan. It was listed as the top measure to help address living costs - which makes sense, as upgrading/electrifying homes will deliver the biggest bill savings in the long run.
November 14, 2025 at 11:57 AM
November 14, 2025 at 11:57 AM
There's also some (potential) signals here about what might be in the forthcoming Warm Homes Plan.
- Making electricity cheaper (a new policy to accelerate electrification)
- EPC reform in 2026
- Consumer protection reforms by 2028/29
- Making electricity cheaper (a new policy to accelerate electrification)
- EPC reform in 2026
- Consumer protection reforms by 2028/29
October 29, 2025 at 4:39 PM
There's also some (potential) signals here about what might be in the forthcoming Warm Homes Plan.
- Making electricity cheaper (a new policy to accelerate electrification)
- EPC reform in 2026
- Consumer protection reforms by 2028/29
- Making electricity cheaper (a new policy to accelerate electrification)
- EPC reform in 2026
- Consumer protection reforms by 2028/29
As ever, there's the wildly unspecific "Additional domestic installations of low-carbon heating technologies from 2030-2037", which somehow accounts for 42% of all the new abatement in CB6 (10.48 MtCO23 per year on average).
More modest than the 2023 projections, which were 15.4 MtCO2e in CB6...
More modest than the 2023 projections, which were 15.4 MtCO2e in CB6...
October 29, 2025 at 4:31 PM
As ever, there's the wildly unspecific "Additional domestic installations of low-carbon heating technologies from 2030-2037", which somehow accounts for 42% of all the new abatement in CB6 (10.48 MtCO23 per year on average).
More modest than the 2023 projections, which were 15.4 MtCO2e in CB6...
More modest than the 2023 projections, which were 15.4 MtCO2e in CB6...
Heat Network Zoning: In contrast to the HN Regulation line, the projected savings are down a bit here. From 1.4 and 2.7 MtCO2e per year on average in CB5 and CB6, to 0.26 and 1.9.
Might reflect delays in introducing the policy - or they're just accounting for heat network savings a bit differently
Might reflect delays in introducing the policy - or they're just accounting for heat network savings a bit differently
October 29, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Heat Network Zoning: In contrast to the HN Regulation line, the projected savings are down a bit here. From 1.4 and 2.7 MtCO2e per year on average in CB5 and CB6, to 0.26 and 1.9.
Might reflect delays in introducing the policy - or they're just accounting for heat network savings a bit differently
Might reflect delays in introducing the policy - or they're just accounting for heat network savings a bit differently
Heat Network Regulation: Slightly higher expectations than before. Annual average abatement is 0.46 and 0.55 MtCO2e per year in CB5 and CB6, up from 0.2 and 0.4 in the 2023 analysis.
Nothing dramatic, but potentially suggests the heat networks programme is doing better than expected?
Nothing dramatic, but potentially suggests the heat networks programme is doing better than expected?
October 29, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Heat Network Regulation: Slightly higher expectations than before. Annual average abatement is 0.46 and 0.55 MtCO2e per year in CB5 and CB6, up from 0.2 and 0.4 in the 2023 analysis.
Nothing dramatic, but potentially suggests the heat networks programme is doing better than expected?
Nothing dramatic, but potentially suggests the heat networks programme is doing better than expected?
The "Energy System Obligation"? This (notionally) only covers the extension of ECO through 2026. I'm not sure what's up with the name. No comparison with 2023 as this was not on the cards then.
October 29, 2025 at 4:16 PM
The "Energy System Obligation"? This (notionally) only covers the extension of ECO through 2026. I'm not sure what's up with the name. No comparison with 2023 as this was not on the cards then.
SRS MEES: Efficiency standards in the Social Rented Sector now not expected to come into force until 2030. But they're expecting more abatement from them: 0.16 to 0.17 per year on average MtCO2e in CB5 and CB6, compared to 0.022 and 0.07 in the 2023 analysis.
October 29, 2025 at 4:03 PM
SRS MEES: Efficiency standards in the Social Rented Sector now not expected to come into force until 2030. But they're expecting more abatement from them: 0.16 to 0.17 per year on average MtCO2e in CB5 and CB6, compared to 0.022 and 0.07 in the 2023 analysis.
Boiler Upgrade Scheme: Difficult to do a direct comparison as this wasn't modeled beyond 2025 in the earlier analysis. Looks like this is expected to do a lot more though.
What's really positive is that this suggests that BUS funding is confirmed through 2029/30, and will grow steadily!
What's really positive is that this suggests that BUS funding is confirmed through 2029/30, and will grow steadily!
October 29, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Boiler Upgrade Scheme: Difficult to do a direct comparison as this wasn't modeled beyond 2025 in the earlier analysis. Looks like this is expected to do a lot more though.
What's really positive is that this suggests that BUS funding is confirmed through 2029/30, and will grow steadily!
What's really positive is that this suggests that BUS funding is confirmed through 2029/30, and will grow steadily!
Clean Heat Market Mechanism: Expectations scaled down by 80%. DESNZ now projects 0.24 MtCO2e of savings per year (on average) in the fifth and sixth Carbon Budget periods, down from 1.2 MtCO2e under the 2023 analysis.
This is probably a dose of realism about the likely impact of the scheme.
This is probably a dose of realism about the likely impact of the scheme.
October 29, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Clean Heat Market Mechanism: Expectations scaled down by 80%. DESNZ now projects 0.24 MtCO2e of savings per year (on average) in the fifth and sixth Carbon Budget periods, down from 1.2 MtCO2e under the 2023 analysis.
This is probably a dose of realism about the likely impact of the scheme.
This is probably a dose of realism about the likely impact of the scheme.
2) Electricity needs to get cheaper
The Government is already doing a lot on the supply side. The investment in renewable generation made through Clean Power 2030 should start driving prices down in the next couple of years. But there is more to do in the short term, particularly on levy reform.
The Government is already doing a lot on the supply side. The investment in renewable generation made through Clean Power 2030 should start driving prices down in the next couple of years. But there is more to do in the short term, particularly on levy reform.
September 30, 2025 at 12:33 PM
2) Electricity needs to get cheaper
The Government is already doing a lot on the supply side. The investment in renewable generation made through Clean Power 2030 should start driving prices down in the next couple of years. But there is more to do in the short term, particularly on levy reform.
The Government is already doing a lot on the supply side. The investment in renewable generation made through Clean Power 2030 should start driving prices down in the next couple of years. But there is more to do in the short term, particularly on levy reform.
1) It needs to accelerate electrification, and the switch away from gas.
Heating is the biggest single energy expense for every household, and electrification of heat is key to reduce bills and emissions. Heat pumps will be the main technology here, but getting the numbers up needs new policies.
Heating is the biggest single energy expense for every household, and electrification of heat is key to reduce bills and emissions. Heat pumps will be the main technology here, but getting the numbers up needs new policies.
September 30, 2025 at 12:33 PM
1) It needs to accelerate electrification, and the switch away from gas.
Heating is the biggest single energy expense for every household, and electrification of heat is key to reduce bills and emissions. Heat pumps will be the main technology here, but getting the numbers up needs new policies.
Heating is the biggest single energy expense for every household, and electrification of heat is key to reduce bills and emissions. Heat pumps will be the main technology here, but getting the numbers up needs new policies.
100% with Marie on this; we need more waterfront pubs in Central London. The relative abundance of spots upstream of Battersea is one of the things that makes the stretch from Isleworth to Putney is particularly nice.
h/t @youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com
youngvulgarian.substack.com/p/so-about-t...
h/t @youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com
youngvulgarian.substack.com/p/so-about-t...
September 19, 2025 at 10:40 AM
100% with Marie on this; we need more waterfront pubs in Central London. The relative abundance of spots upstream of Battersea is one of the things that makes the stretch from Isleworth to Putney is particularly nice.
h/t @youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com
youngvulgarian.substack.com/p/so-about-t...
h/t @youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com
youngvulgarian.substack.com/p/so-about-t...
September 1, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Only 24% of Britons think that we should start fracking (compared to 51% who are opposed).
This is less than the share of people in England and Wales who support Scottish Independence (31%), or who think tax avoidance is acceptable (32%), or think prostitution should be a crime (27%)
This is less than the share of people in England and Wales who support Scottish Independence (31%), or who think tax avoidance is acceptable (32%), or think prostitution should be a crime (27%)
August 29, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Only 24% of Britons think that we should start fracking (compared to 51% who are opposed).
This is less than the share of people in England and Wales who support Scottish Independence (31%), or who think tax avoidance is acceptable (32%), or think prostitution should be a crime (27%)
This is less than the share of people in England and Wales who support Scottish Independence (31%), or who think tax avoidance is acceptable (32%), or think prostitution should be a crime (27%)
Thanks to the new data from the CCC we can get an accurate picture of how the pathway for low-carbon heat changed between the Sixth and Seventh Carbon budgets.
May 21, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Thanks to the new data from the CCC we can get an accurate picture of how the pathway for low-carbon heat changed between the Sixth and Seventh Carbon budgets.
And the decline of UK gas production started in 2001, seven years before the Climate Change Act, and sixteen years before 'Net Zero' became the ambition. Climate change is a novel and important justification for reducing production, but let's not pretend it's the reason the industry is in decline.
April 10, 2025 at 3:21 PM
And the decline of UK gas production started in 2001, seven years before the Climate Change Act, and sixteen years before 'Net Zero' became the ambition. Climate change is a novel and important justification for reducing production, but let's not pretend it's the reason the industry is in decline.
There's something psychological here - politicians and the public think that the UK has abundant fossil energy resources. But in reality the UK was only a net exporter of gas for seven years (1997-2003).
April 10, 2025 at 3:21 PM
There's something psychological here - politicians and the public think that the UK has abundant fossil energy resources. But in reality the UK was only a net exporter of gas for seven years (1997-2003).
On closer inspection, it seems that this site has been setup by a firm called 'Effective Energy Solutions'. Their main business is as a middle-man helping contractors access funding from Government schemes.
March 21, 2025 at 11:06 AM
On closer inspection, it seems that this site has been setup by a firm called 'Effective Energy Solutions'. Their main business is as a middle-man helping contractors access funding from Government schemes.
What it does have is a bunch of big red buttons trying to persuade you to provide your personal information.
March 21, 2025 at 11:06 AM
What it does have is a bunch of big red buttons trying to persuade you to provide your personal information.