Are you an outstanding communicator who knows loads about the UK public finances? Are you attracted by the prospect of a public voice, and the chance to work alongside brilliant economists at the country's finest think tank?
We'd like to hear from you: app.beapplied.com/apply/4t6eys...
We'd like to hear from you: app.beapplied.com/apply/4t6eys...
January 27, 2026 at 3:59 PM
Are you an outstanding communicator who knows loads about the UK public finances? Are you attracted by the prospect of a public voice, and the chance to work alongside brilliant economists at the country's finest think tank?
We'd like to hear from you: app.beapplied.com/apply/4t6eys...
We'd like to hear from you: app.beapplied.com/apply/4t6eys...
Reposted by Ben Zaranko
Fantastic opportunity to work with the very best of fiscal policy analysts.
🚨Rare and exciting opportunity 🚨
We're looking to hire an exceptional economist to work on fiscal policy at the IFS. We don't do this often. It's a chance to shape, carry out and communicate research on some of the highest-profile topics in UK economic policy. [1/4]
We're looking to hire an exceptional economist to work on fiscal policy at the IFS. We don't do this often. It's a chance to shape, carry out and communicate research on some of the highest-profile topics in UK economic policy. [1/4]
January 22, 2026 at 2:08 PM
Fantastic opportunity to work with the very best of fiscal policy analysts.
🚨Rare and exciting opportunity 🚨
We're looking to hire an exceptional economist to work on fiscal policy at the IFS. We don't do this often. It's a chance to shape, carry out and communicate research on some of the highest-profile topics in UK economic policy. [1/4]
We're looking to hire an exceptional economist to work on fiscal policy at the IFS. We don't do this often. It's a chance to shape, carry out and communicate research on some of the highest-profile topics in UK economic policy. [1/4]
January 22, 2026 at 1:46 PM
🚨Rare and exciting opportunity 🚨
We're looking to hire an exceptional economist to work on fiscal policy at the IFS. We don't do this often. It's a chance to shape, carry out and communicate research on some of the highest-profile topics in UK economic policy. [1/4]
We're looking to hire an exceptional economist to work on fiscal policy at the IFS. We don't do this often. It's a chance to shape, carry out and communicate research on some of the highest-profile topics in UK economic policy. [1/4]
This feels like an important finding (albeit from one US study):
GLP-1 medications (Ozempic, Mounjaro etc) *do not* pay for themselves by reducing other types of medical spending, at least in the first five years. If anything, GLP-1s increase other forms of medical spending.
GLP-1 medications (Ozempic, Mounjaro etc) *do not* pay for themselves by reducing other types of medical spending, at least in the first five years. If anything, GLP-1s increase other forms of medical spending.
January 12, 2026 at 8:41 AM
This feels like an important finding (albeit from one US study):
GLP-1 medications (Ozempic, Mounjaro etc) *do not* pay for themselves by reducing other types of medical spending, at least in the first five years. If anything, GLP-1s increase other forms of medical spending.
GLP-1 medications (Ozempic, Mounjaro etc) *do not* pay for themselves by reducing other types of medical spending, at least in the first five years. If anything, GLP-1s increase other forms of medical spending.
A great thread summarising some fascinating work on London's ULEZ. As you might expect, its introduction led more people to switch to electric cars and public transport, but ULEZ also affected house prices and business locations. Low-income drivers were more likely to just pay the charge.
NEW: How did the introduction of the Ultra-Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) change London’s geography of work?
In a new @theifs.bsky.social paper, @joelkariel.bsky.social, Fizza Jabbar and I have taken a look – and it turns out people adapt in surprising ways. A thread.
1/
In a new @theifs.bsky.social paper, @joelkariel.bsky.social, Fizza Jabbar and I have taken a look – and it turns out people adapt in surprising ways. A thread.
1/
December 18, 2025 at 1:04 PM
A great thread summarising some fascinating work on London's ULEZ. As you might expect, its introduction led more people to switch to electric cars and public transport, but ULEZ also affected house prices and business locations. Low-income drivers were more likely to just pay the charge.
A short seven years (!) after I started writing the code, it’s great to see this paper published.
We use high-frequency NHS to data show that short-staffed, less experienced nursing teams deliver worse outcomes – with the largest mortality impacts for patients with sepsis.
We use high-frequency NHS to data show that short-staffed, less experienced nursing teams deliver worse outcomes – with the largest mortality impacts for patients with sepsis.
December 18, 2025 at 9:52 AM
A short seven years (!) after I started writing the code, it’s great to see this paper published.
We use high-frequency NHS to data show that short-staffed, less experienced nursing teams deliver worse outcomes – with the largest mortality impacts for patients with sepsis.
We use high-frequency NHS to data show that short-staffed, less experienced nursing teams deliver worse outcomes – with the largest mortality impacts for patients with sepsis.
An interesting nugget buried in Treasury evidence to the Pay Review Bodies:
In recent years, the NHS and other departments have (with HMT permission) raided capital budgets to fund unexpectedly high pay awards. Updated guidance explicitly rules this out.
In recent years, the NHS and other departments have (with HMT permission) raided capital budgets to fund unexpectedly high pay awards. Updated guidance explicitly rules this out.
December 16, 2025 at 11:56 AM
An interesting nugget buried in Treasury evidence to the Pay Review Bodies:
In recent years, the NHS and other departments have (with HMT permission) raided capital budgets to fund unexpectedly high pay awards. Updated guidance explicitly rules this out.
In recent years, the NHS and other departments have (with HMT permission) raided capital budgets to fund unexpectedly high pay awards. Updated guidance explicitly rules this out.
This is a careful, valuable piece of research demonstrating that cuts to non-disability benefits in the 2010s led to more people claiming disability benefits. Notable, though, that extra spending on disability support only undid a very small % of the original savings.
These effects reduce the fiscal saving from cuts to benefit amounts, but only modestly. Increased disability benefits only reduced savings by 1%-4% for the three cuts to benefit amounts we study.
December 12, 2025 at 3:13 PM
This is a careful, valuable piece of research demonstrating that cuts to non-disability benefits in the 2010s led to more people claiming disability benefits. Notable, though, that extra spending on disability support only undid a very small % of the original savings.
We're looking for an outstanding economist to lead our health team.
This is a rare opportunity, with a great team. If you want to lead economic research with real-world policy impact, there really is nowhere better than the IFS.
app.beapplied.com/apply/jfzr0z...
This is a rare opportunity, with a great team. If you want to lead economic research with real-world policy impact, there really is nowhere better than the IFS.
app.beapplied.com/apply/jfzr0z...
Associate Director (Health/Healthcare)
Background to the role The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) is Europe’s leading centre for research on the microeconomics of public policy. It is a politically independent registered educational c...
app.beapplied.com
December 11, 2025 at 3:37 PM
We're looking for an outstanding economist to lead our health team.
This is a rare opportunity, with a great team. If you want to lead economic research with real-world policy impact, there really is nowhere better than the IFS.
app.beapplied.com/apply/jfzr0z...
This is a rare opportunity, with a great team. If you want to lead economic research with real-world policy impact, there really is nowhere better than the IFS.
app.beapplied.com/apply/jfzr0z...
Reposted by Ben Zaranko
Hospitals currently have a lot more people admitted with flu than at the same time in recent years. It remains to be seen how the peak will compare to previous years. (Half the IFS healthcare team are also currently laid low with it...)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c6...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c6...
December 11, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Hospitals currently have a lot more people admitted with flu than at the same time in recent years. It remains to be seen how the peak will compare to previous years. (Half the IFS healthcare team are also currently laid low with it...)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c6...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c6...
NHS hospitals in England are getting more productive, according to official data. But the waiting list for pre-planned treatment is barely falling.
Why? It turns out, the NHS is now doing more stuff to the average patient before they leave the waiting list. See @maxwarner.bsky.social's thread 👇
Why? It turns out, the NHS is now doing more stuff to the average patient before they leave the waiting list. See @maxwarner.bsky.social's thread 👇
NEW: Hospital productivity growth is beating the government’s targets. So why hasn't the NHS made more progress on cutting elective waiting times?
In a new @theifs.bsky.social comment, we examine what’s driving the divergence between two of the government’s biggest NHS priorities.
1/11
In a new @theifs.bsky.social comment, we examine what’s driving the divergence between two of the government’s biggest NHS priorities.
1/11
NEW: Strong productivity growth and increasing funding has meant English hospitals have been delivering much more elective (pre-planned) care.
So why isn't the waiting list going down more quickly?
🧵 @maxwarner.bsky.social and Olly Harvey-Rich examine what's going on:
So why isn't the waiting list going down more quickly?
🧵 @maxwarner.bsky.social and Olly Harvey-Rich examine what's going on:
December 9, 2025 at 8:58 AM
NHS hospitals in England are getting more productive, according to official data. But the waiting list for pre-planned treatment is barely falling.
Why? It turns out, the NHS is now doing more stuff to the average patient before they leave the waiting list. See @maxwarner.bsky.social's thread 👇
Why? It turns out, the NHS is now doing more stuff to the average patient before they leave the waiting list. See @maxwarner.bsky.social's thread 👇
Reposted by Ben Zaranko
Would you like to lead our @theifs.bsky.social work on healthcare? We are looking to recruit an outstanding economist to become an Associate Director and lead a programme of economic research on health and/or healthcare. Job advert here: app.beapplied.com/apply/jfzr0z...
Associate Director (Health/Healthcare)
Background to the role The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) is Europe’s leading centre for research on the microeconomics of public policy. It is a politically independent registered educational c...
app.beapplied.com
December 8, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Would you like to lead our @theifs.bsky.social work on healthcare? We are looking to recruit an outstanding economist to become an Associate Director and lead a programme of economic research on health and/or healthcare. Job advert here: app.beapplied.com/apply/jfzr0z...
At no point in the process did the OBR have the government missing its fiscal rules by a large margin. Leaves me baffled by the months of speculation and briefing. Was the plan to lead everyone to expect a big income tax rise, then surprise them on the day by not doing it..?
November 28, 2025 at 11:27 AM
At no point in the process did the OBR have the government missing its fiscal rules by a large margin. Leaves me baffled by the months of speculation and briefing. Was the plan to lead everyone to expect a big income tax rise, then surprise them on the day by not doing it..?
Further to this, in a (plausible) scenario presented by the OBR, official plans imply that "unprotected" departments would face cuts of >3% per year, equivalent to more than £20 billion, between 2029 and 2031. That includes police, courts, job centres, colleges, prisons, HMRC, border force... 🤔
November 27, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Further to this, in a (plausible) scenario presented by the OBR, official plans imply that "unprotected" departments would face cuts of >3% per year, equivalent to more than £20 billion, between 2029 and 2031. That includes police, courts, job centres, colleges, prisons, HMRC, border force... 🤔
Reposted by Ben Zaranko
Underrated part of yesterday's Budget was what's happening to public service spending in 2028-29. Spending Review settlements reopened just 5 months after the SR to account for loosely-specified 'efficiency savings' of £1.4bn in 28-29 (rising to 4bn in 29-30)
November 27, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Underrated part of yesterday's Budget was what's happening to public service spending in 2028-29. Spending Review settlements reopened just 5 months after the SR to account for loosely-specified 'efficiency savings' of £1.4bn in 28-29 (rising to 4bn in 29-30)
Having now mulled overnight, a few aspects of the Budget where the government deserves some credit:
1) Increasing fiscal headroom
2) A plan for how to tax electric cars, at last (even if imperfect)
3) A plan to gradually undo the "temporary" 5p cut in fuel duty
1) Increasing fiscal headroom
2) A plan for how to tax electric cars, at last (even if imperfect)
3) A plan to gradually undo the "temporary" 5p cut in fuel duty
Some immediate Budget takes from @helenmiller.bsky.social and the IFS hive mind at the link below.
What's most striking, to me at least, is the decision to rely so much on tax rises that kick in at the back end of the parliament - just in time for the next election...
What's most striking, to me at least, is the decision to rely so much on tax rises that kick in at the back end of the parliament - just in time for the next election...
“This was a big Budget, but not in the way people were necessarily expecting.” – @helenmiller.bsky.social
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 27, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Having now mulled overnight, a few aspects of the Budget where the government deserves some credit:
1) Increasing fiscal headroom
2) A plan for how to tax electric cars, at last (even if imperfect)
3) A plan to gradually undo the "temporary" 5p cut in fuel duty
1) Increasing fiscal headroom
2) A plan for how to tax electric cars, at last (even if imperfect)
3) A plan to gradually undo the "temporary" 5p cut in fuel duty
Some immediate Budget takes from @helenmiller.bsky.social and the IFS hive mind at the link below.
What's most striking, to me at least, is the decision to rely so much on tax rises that kick in at the back end of the parliament - just in time for the next election...
What's most striking, to me at least, is the decision to rely so much on tax rises that kick in at the back end of the parliament - just in time for the next election...
“This was a big Budget, but not in the way people were necessarily expecting.” – @helenmiller.bsky.social
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 26, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Some immediate Budget takes from @helenmiller.bsky.social and the IFS hive mind at the link below.
What's most striking, to me at least, is the decision to rely so much on tax rises that kick in at the back end of the parliament - just in time for the next election...
What's most striking, to me at least, is the decision to rely so much on tax rises that kick in at the back end of the parliament - just in time for the next election...
Reposted by Ben Zaranko
“This was a big Budget, but not in the way people were necessarily expecting.” – @helenmiller.bsky.social
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 26, 2025 at 3:06 PM
“This was a big Budget, but not in the way people were necessarily expecting.” – @helenmiller.bsky.social
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
📗 Our immediate IFS response to #Budget2025 is out now: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
The OBR will now only assess performance against the fiscal rules once per year (in the autumn) but will continue to produce two forecasts each year. Relies on the world understanding that if the OBR forecast a current budget deficit in the spring, it's not technically a breach.
November 26, 2025 at 1:41 PM
The OBR will now only assess performance against the fiscal rules once per year (in the autumn) but will continue to produce two forecasts each year. Relies on the world understanding that if the OBR forecast a current budget deficit in the spring, it's not technically a breach.
There's an interesting political economy angle to the fact that, with basically every single tax parameter frozen in cash terms (and personal tax thresholds now frozen to 2031), inflation is extremely beneficial for the public finances.
Rachel Reeves can count herself (at least a bit) lucky. OBR productivity downgrade would have knocked £16 billion off tax receipts. But she was saved by £32 billion of *extra* receipts from higher inflation and a shift to more tax-rich growth (lower profits, higher wages).
November 26, 2025 at 1:31 PM
There's an interesting political economy angle to the fact that, with basically every single tax parameter frozen in cash terms (and personal tax thresholds now frozen to 2031), inflation is extremely beneficial for the public finances.
Rachel Reeves can count herself (at least a bit) lucky. OBR productivity downgrade would have knocked £16 billion off tax receipts. But she was saved by £32 billion of *extra* receipts from higher inflation and a shift to more tax-rich growth (lower profits, higher wages).
November 26, 2025 at 12:40 PM
Rachel Reeves can count herself (at least a bit) lucky. OBR productivity downgrade would have knocked £16 billion off tax receipts. But she was saved by £32 billion of *extra* receipts from higher inflation and a shift to more tax-rich growth (lower profits, higher wages).
With apologies to the poor person at the OBR who accidentally hit upload...
Key public finance story: smaller OBR downgrade than expected, more borrowing in the short term (extra spending, mostly unanticipated), less borrowing in the medium term (as tax rises kick in).
Key public finance story: smaller OBR downgrade than expected, more borrowing in the short term (extra spending, mostly unanticipated), less borrowing in the medium term (as tax rises kick in).
November 26, 2025 at 12:13 PM
With apologies to the poor person at the OBR who accidentally hit upload...
Key public finance story: smaller OBR downgrade than expected, more borrowing in the short term (extra spending, mostly unanticipated), less borrowing in the medium term (as tax rises kick in).
Key public finance story: smaller OBR downgrade than expected, more borrowing in the short term (extra spending, mostly unanticipated), less borrowing in the medium term (as tax rises kick in).
I've written for this week's @theobserveruk.bsky.social about economic forecasts and how they are (mis)used.
observer.co.uk/news/politic...
observer.co.uk/news/politic...
November 23, 2025 at 3:02 PM
I've written for this week's @theobserveruk.bsky.social about economic forecasts and how they are (mis)used.
observer.co.uk/news/politic...
observer.co.uk/news/politic...
Amidst ceaseless discussion of possible tax rises, it's worth remembering that spending cuts could be part of any Budget consolidation package. One challenge is that detailed department-level spending plans up to 2028–29 were agreed only in June...
We've looked at the options 👇
We've looked at the options 👇
November 19, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Amidst ceaseless discussion of possible tax rises, it's worth remembering that spending cuts could be part of any Budget consolidation package. One challenge is that detailed department-level spending plans up to 2028–29 were agreed only in June...
We've looked at the options 👇
We've looked at the options 👇
This is the point. Policy *should not* be adjusted or fine-tuned in response to minor forecasting judgements. Decisions about whether or not to break a prominent manifesto promise *should not* depend on minor forecasting judgements. This stuff matters. We've got to do better than this.
I know it’s always like this. But one striking thing from the budget kite flying and kite pulling back in, is how major policy decisions are constantly being buffeted around by iterative forecast changes.
All feels a bit of a silly way to be making major economic policy & political decisions.
All feels a bit of a silly way to be making major economic policy & political decisions.
November 14, 2025 at 3:23 PM
This is the point. Policy *should not* be adjusted or fine-tuned in response to minor forecasting judgements. Decisions about whether or not to break a prominent manifesto promise *should not* depend on minor forecasting judgements. This stuff matters. We've got to do better than this.