Max Warner
@maxwarner.bsky.social
Economist at the IFS working on health and social care, public spending and public sector productivity https://ifs.org.uk/people/max-warner
Reposted by Max Warner
This is important as last month's OBR forecast (no monthly breakdown of this yet) expects a big increase in receipts by 2029/30 from higher inflation, boosting the public finances.
That may materialise, but it’s concerning that it hasn’t yet - one watch out for in the new year
That may materialise, but it’s concerning that it hasn’t yet - one watch out for in the new year
December 19, 2025 at 2:39 PM
This is important as last month's OBR forecast (no monthly breakdown of this yet) expects a big increase in receipts by 2029/30 from higher inflation, boosting the public finances.
That may materialise, but it’s concerning that it hasn’t yet - one watch out for in the new year
That may materialise, but it’s concerning that it hasn’t yet - one watch out for in the new year
Reposted by Max Warner
New ONS public finance data today shows central government revenues are still lagging significantly below March expectations.
Given inflation has been higher than forecast, this is surprising - even VAT receipts, which one might expect to rise with inflation, are below forecast
Given inflation has been higher than forecast, this is surprising - even VAT receipts, which one might expect to rise with inflation, are below forecast
December 19, 2025 at 2:39 PM
New ONS public finance data today shows central government revenues are still lagging significantly below March expectations.
Given inflation has been higher than forecast, this is surprising - even VAT receipts, which one might expect to rise with inflation, are below forecast
Given inflation has been higher than forecast, this is surprising - even VAT receipts, which one might expect to rise with inflation, are below forecast
Reposted by Max Warner
A short seven years (!) after I started writing the code, it’s great to see this paper published.
We use high-frequency NHS to data show that short-staffed, less experienced nursing teams deliver worse outcomes – with the largest mortality impacts for patients with sepsis.
We use high-frequency NHS to data show that short-staffed, less experienced nursing teams deliver worse outcomes – with the largest mortality impacts for patients with sepsis.
December 18, 2025 at 9:52 AM
A short seven years (!) after I started writing the code, it’s great to see this paper published.
We use high-frequency NHS to data show that short-staffed, less experienced nursing teams deliver worse outcomes – with the largest mortality impacts for patients with sepsis.
We use high-frequency NHS to data show that short-staffed, less experienced nursing teams deliver worse outcomes – with the largest mortality impacts for patients with sepsis.
Reposted by Max Warner
NEW: How did the introduction of the Ultra-Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) change London’s geography of work?
In a new @theifs.bsky.social paper, @joelkariel.bsky.social, Fizza Jabbar and I have taken a look – and it turns out people adapt in surprising ways. A thread.
1/
In a new @theifs.bsky.social paper, @joelkariel.bsky.social, Fizza Jabbar and I have taken a look – and it turns out people adapt in surprising ways. A thread.
1/
December 17, 2025 at 5:22 PM
NEW: How did the introduction of the Ultra-Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) change London’s geography of work?
In a new @theifs.bsky.social paper, @joelkariel.bsky.social, Fizza Jabbar and I have taken a look – and it turns out people adapt in surprising ways. A thread.
1/
In a new @theifs.bsky.social paper, @joelkariel.bsky.social, Fizza Jabbar and I have taken a look – and it turns out people adapt in surprising ways. A thread.
1/
NHS England has now produced two sets of productivity growth rates for each NHS acute trust. These are year-on-year growth rates, only 3 months apart (so have a 9 month overlap). But what's striking is that they are essentially uncorrelated!?
[1/2]
[1/2]
December 15, 2025 at 5:48 PM
NHS England has now produced two sets of productivity growth rates for each NHS acute trust. These are year-on-year growth rates, only 3 months apart (so have a 9 month overlap). But what's striking is that they are essentially uncorrelated!?
[1/2]
[1/2]
Hospitals currently have a lot more people admitted with flu than at the same time in recent years. It remains to be seen how the peak will compare to previous years. (Half the IFS healthcare team are also currently laid low with it...)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c6...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c6...
December 11, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Hospitals currently have a lot more people admitted with flu than at the same time in recent years. It remains to be seen how the peak will compare to previous years. (Half the IFS healthcare team are also currently laid low with it...)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c6...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c6...
NEW: Hospital productivity growth is beating the government’s targets. So why hasn't the NHS made more progress on cutting elective waiting times?
In a new @theifs.bsky.social comment, we examine what’s driving the divergence between two of the government’s biggest NHS priorities.
1/11
In a new @theifs.bsky.social comment, we examine what’s driving the divergence between two of the government’s biggest NHS priorities.
1/11
NEW: Strong productivity growth and increasing funding has meant English hospitals have been delivering much more elective (pre-planned) care.
So why isn't the waiting list going down more quickly?
🧵 @maxwarner.bsky.social and Olly Harvey-Rich examine what's going on:
So why isn't the waiting list going down more quickly?
🧵 @maxwarner.bsky.social and Olly Harvey-Rich examine what's going on:
December 9, 2025 at 8:41 AM
NEW: Hospital productivity growth is beating the government’s targets. So why hasn't the NHS made more progress on cutting elective waiting times?
In a new @theifs.bsky.social comment, we examine what’s driving the divergence between two of the government’s biggest NHS priorities.
1/11
In a new @theifs.bsky.social comment, we examine what’s driving the divergence between two of the government’s biggest NHS priorities.
1/11
Would you like to lead our @theifs.bsky.social work on healthcare? We are looking to recruit an outstanding economist to become an Associate Director and lead a programme of economic research on health and/or healthcare. Job advert here: app.beapplied.com/apply/jfzr0z...
Associate Director (Health/Healthcare)
Background to the role The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) is Europe’s leading centre for research on the microeconomics of public policy. It is a politically independent registered educational c...
app.beapplied.com
December 8, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Would you like to lead our @theifs.bsky.social work on healthcare? We are looking to recruit an outstanding economist to become an Associate Director and lead a programme of economic research on health and/or healthcare. Job advert here: app.beapplied.com/apply/jfzr0z...
Reposted by Max Warner
NEW: What are Rachel Reeves’ options if she decides to change departmental spending at next week’s Budget?
📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social explain: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social explain: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
November 19, 2025 at 10:28 AM
NEW: What are Rachel Reeves’ options if she decides to change departmental spending at next week’s Budget?
📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social explain: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social explain: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
Reposted by Max Warner
The IFS has calculated that the effective carbon price on household use of gas is negative, thanks to its lower VAT rate.
ifs.org.uk/articles/tax....
This obviously sets back the carbon transition. Let's hope the Government is looking to make this better!
ifs.org.uk/articles/tax....
This obviously sets back the carbon transition. Let's hope the Government is looking to make this better!
November 5, 2025 at 10:55 AM
The IFS has calculated that the effective carbon price on household use of gas is negative, thanks to its lower VAT rate.
ifs.org.uk/articles/tax....
This obviously sets back the carbon transition. Let's hope the Government is looking to make this better!
ifs.org.uk/articles/tax....
This obviously sets back the carbon transition. Let's hope the Government is looking to make this better!
Elective waiting times in the NHS have improved since Labour came to office, but relatively slowly. Improvements in 18 week performance will have to pick up speed considerably if the government are to hit their headline NHS target by the end of the parliament.
October 24, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Elective waiting times in the NHS have improved since Labour came to office, but relatively slowly. Improvements in 18 week performance will have to pick up speed considerably if the government are to hit their headline NHS target by the end of the parliament.
Reposted by Max Warner
On the question of one vs two OBR forecasts per year...
The IMF said first best option would be to operate with more ‘headroom’. They did not call for one forecast. They suggested that the rules could be assessed only once per year, but explicitly said that two forecasts per year is best practice!
The IMF said first best option would be to operate with more ‘headroom’. They did not call for one forecast. They suggested that the rules could be assessed only once per year, but explicitly said that two forecasts per year is best practice!
September 29, 2025 at 8:04 AM
On the question of one vs two OBR forecasts per year...
The IMF said first best option would be to operate with more ‘headroom’. They did not call for one forecast. They suggested that the rules could be assessed only once per year, but explicitly said that two forecasts per year is best practice!
The IMF said first best option would be to operate with more ‘headroom’. They did not call for one forecast. They suggested that the rules could be assessed only once per year, but explicitly said that two forecasts per year is best practice!
Reposted by Max Warner
NEW PODCAST: The end of the peace dividend? UK defence in a changing world
🎧 @helenmiller.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social & @rusi.bsky.social's Matthew Savill chat all things defence spending: what it covers, how it's changed and what reaching 3.5% of GDP would mean: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...
🎧 @helenmiller.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social & @rusi.bsky.social's Matthew Savill chat all things defence spending: what it covers, how it's changed and what reaching 3.5% of GDP would mean: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...
September 26, 2025 at 2:27 PM
NEW PODCAST: The end of the peace dividend? UK defence in a changing world
🎧 @helenmiller.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social & @rusi.bsky.social's Matthew Savill chat all things defence spending: what it covers, how it's changed and what reaching 3.5% of GDP would mean: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...
🎧 @helenmiller.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social & @rusi.bsky.social's Matthew Savill chat all things defence spending: what it covers, how it's changed and what reaching 3.5% of GDP would mean: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...
One of my favourite charts from our new report on defence spending:
For decades, the 'peace dividend' of falling defence spending as a share of GDP has allowed more spending on things like health without such a big rise in the size of the state. That is no longer the case
For decades, the 'peace dividend' of falling defence spending as a share of GDP has allowed more spending on things like health without such a big rise in the size of the state. That is no longer the case
The UK last spent 3.5% of GDP on defence in 1987–88, when health spending was 4.0% of GDP. By 2035, health spending could reach 9.2% of GDP.
Funding concurrent increases in health and defence spending on this scale would pose a considerable fiscal challenge.
[2/6]
Funding concurrent increases in health and defence spending on this scale would pose a considerable fiscal challenge.
[2/6]
September 26, 2025 at 2:32 PM
One of my favourite charts from our new report on defence spending:
For decades, the 'peace dividend' of falling defence spending as a share of GDP has allowed more spending on things like health without such a big rise in the size of the state. That is no longer the case
For decades, the 'peace dividend' of falling defence spending as a share of GDP has allowed more spending on things like health without such a big rise in the size of the state. That is no longer the case
Reposted by Max Warner
In new @theifs.bsky.social work, we examine the fiscal challenge of the UK's commitment to higher defence spending. If met, for the first time in a long time health and defence spending would likely rise simultaneously (as a % of GDP). This would change the shape and/or size of the state.
September 26, 2025 at 9:40 AM
In new @theifs.bsky.social work, we examine the fiscal challenge of the UK's commitment to higher defence spending. If met, for the first time in a long time health and defence spending would likely rise simultaneously (as a % of GDP). This would change the shape and/or size of the state.
Reposted by Max Warner
Some great charts in this report. This one is my favourite. The UK has signed up the new NATO commitment to spend 3.5% of GDP on defence. The scale of the increase is fiscally challenging, and we've given ourselves a decade. Poland, on the other hand, has done it in just two years.
September 26, 2025 at 7:54 AM
Some great charts in this report. This one is my favourite. The UK has signed up the new NATO commitment to spend 3.5% of GDP on defence. The scale of the increase is fiscally challenging, and we've given ourselves a decade. Poland, on the other hand, has done it in just two years.
We have a new @theifs.bsky.social report out today on UK defence spending. Defence spending commitments, if met, will have a large impact on the shape and/or size of the state. We cover lots of important aspects of defence spending, including international comparisons and impacts on growth
NEW: Honouring the NATO commitment to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 would reshape the British state.
@maxwarner.bsky.social & @beeboileau.bsky.social's new IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, examines the past and future of UK defence spending:
[THREAD:]
@maxwarner.bsky.social & @beeboileau.bsky.social's new IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, examines the past and future of UK defence spending:
[THREAD:]
September 26, 2025 at 8:20 AM
We have a new @theifs.bsky.social report out today on UK defence spending. Defence spending commitments, if met, will have a large impact on the shape and/or size of the state. We cover lots of important aspects of defence spending, including international comparisons and impacts on growth
We have a new @theifs.bsky.social report out today looking at the government's ambitious plans for public sector productivity. If productivity growth disappoints, the govt will have to choose between worse public service performance than planned or topping up budgets
NEW: The government is banking on big rises in public sector productivity to deliver its plans for public services.
@maxwarner.bsky.social and Olly Harvey-Rich’s new IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, examines the outlook for public sector productivity:
[THREAD : 1/6]
@maxwarner.bsky.social and Olly Harvey-Rich’s new IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, examines the outlook for public sector productivity:
[THREAD : 1/6]
September 19, 2025 at 7:47 AM
We have a new @theifs.bsky.social report out today looking at the government's ambitious plans for public sector productivity. If productivity growth disappoints, the govt will have to choose between worse public service performance than planned or topping up budgets
Reposted by Max Warner
A key factor at the next election will be the state of Britain's public services. That will depend on whether the government can make those services more productive, to deliver more without huge cash injections.
Join our @theifs.bsky.social event on Friday to hear more: ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...
Join our @theifs.bsky.social event on Friday to hear more: ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...
How ambitious are the government's plans for public sector productivity? | Institute for Fiscal Studies
This event will present new analysis on the current government's plans for improving public sector productivity, with a response from Jeremy Hunt MP.
ifs.org.uk
September 15, 2025 at 9:55 AM
A key factor at the next election will be the state of Britain's public services. That will depend on whether the government can make those services more productive, to deliver more without huge cash injections.
Join our @theifs.bsky.social event on Friday to hear more: ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...
Join our @theifs.bsky.social event on Friday to hear more: ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...
Govt plans for public service spending and performance rely on ambitious productivity plans. Next Friday we have an @theifs.bsky.social online event looking at these plans and their implications, with new analysis from us and reflections from @jeremyhuntmp.bsky.social.
ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...
ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...
How ambitious are the government's plans for public sector productivity? | Institute for Fiscal Studies
This event will present new analysis on the current government's plans for improving public sector productivity, with a response from Jeremy Hunt MP.
ifs.org.uk
September 12, 2025 at 9:44 AM
Govt plans for public service spending and performance rely on ambitious productivity plans. Next Friday we have an @theifs.bsky.social online event looking at these plans and their implications, with new analysis from us and reflections from @jeremyhuntmp.bsky.social.
ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...
ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...
Reposted by Max Warner
When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts?
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms:
ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms:
ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...
When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts? | Institute for Fiscal Studies
Important trade-offs are involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts.
ifs.org.uk
August 27, 2025 at 8:42 AM
When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts?
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms:
ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms:
ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...
There are reports that the government is considering changing student loans or pensions for resident doctors. We've written a new @theifs.bsky.social comment on the potential merits of such changes. Here's a summary:
July 19, 2025 at 8:12 AM
There are reports that the government is considering changing student loans or pensions for resident doctors. We've written a new @theifs.bsky.social comment on the potential merits of such changes. Here's a summary:
@benzaranko.bsky.social and I have a new paper out in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy on the future of health and social care provision in the UK. It sets out the challenges and opportunities for increasing inputs and productivity in the NHS and adult social care in the coming decades
The UK must significantly expand health and social care supply to meet rising demand. @maxwarner.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social explore how to boost inputs and productivity amid policy and fiscal constraints. #HealthPolicy #SocialCare
academic.oup.com/oxrep/articl...
academic.oup.com/oxrep/articl...
Future challenges for health and social care provision in the UK
Abstract. The supply of health and social (long-term) care services in the UK will need to substantially increase in coming decades to meet growing demand
academic.oup.com
June 25, 2025 at 8:12 AM
@benzaranko.bsky.social and I have a new paper out in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy on the future of health and social care provision in the UK. It sets out the challenges and opportunities for increasing inputs and productivity in the NHS and adult social care in the coming decades