Eduin Latimer
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social
Economist at Institute for Fiscal Studies, interested in low-paying labour market and the tax and benefit system.
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
New ONS public finance data today shows central government revenues are still lagging significantly below March expectations.
Given inflation has been higher than forecast, this is surprising - even VAT receipts, which one might expect to rise with inflation, are below forecast
Given inflation has been higher than forecast, this is surprising - even VAT receipts, which one might expect to rise with inflation, are below forecast
December 19, 2025 at 2:39 PM
New ONS public finance data today shows central government revenues are still lagging significantly below March expectations.
Given inflation has been higher than forecast, this is surprising - even VAT receipts, which one might expect to rise with inflation, are below forecast
Given inflation has been higher than forecast, this is surprising - even VAT receipts, which one might expect to rise with inflation, are below forecast
Great to get this new research out. We find that following cuts to non-health benefit income cause more people to claim disability benefits.
"The big-picture lesson for policymakers is that changes to one part of the benefit system can shift pressures elsewhere, rather than remove them entirely."
📗 Read our report, funded by @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @healthfoundation.bsky.social, here: ifs.org.uk/publications...
📗 Read our report, funded by @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @healthfoundation.bsky.social, here: ifs.org.uk/publications...
December 12, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Great to get this new research out. We find that following cuts to non-health benefit income cause more people to claim disability benefits.
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
NEW: Cuts to non-health-related benefits caused increases in disability benefit claims, our new report finds.
📗 Jonathan Cribb, @heidikarj.bsky.social, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, Sam Ray-Chaudhuri and Tom Waters examine the impact of four cuts to benefits in the 2010s [THREAD:🧵]:
📗 Jonathan Cribb, @heidikarj.bsky.social, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, Sam Ray-Chaudhuri and Tom Waters examine the impact of four cuts to benefits in the 2010s [THREAD:🧵]:
December 12, 2025 at 8:15 AM
NEW: Cuts to non-health-related benefits caused increases in disability benefit claims, our new report finds.
📗 Jonathan Cribb, @heidikarj.bsky.social, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, Sam Ray-Chaudhuri and Tom Waters examine the impact of four cuts to benefits in the 2010s [THREAD:🧵]:
📗 Jonathan Cribb, @heidikarj.bsky.social, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, Sam Ray-Chaudhuri and Tom Waters examine the impact of four cuts to benefits in the 2010s [THREAD:🧵]:
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
The government has announced it intends to abolish the two-child limit, at a cost of £3bn according to @OBR_UK.
This is one of the most cost-effective levers the government has to achieve a quick reduction in child poverty, given the high poverty rates among larger families.
#Budget2025
This is one of the most cost-effective levers the government has to achieve a quick reduction in child poverty, given the high poverty rates among larger families.
#Budget2025
November 26, 2025 at 2:55 PM
The government has announced it intends to abolish the two-child limit, at a cost of £3bn according to @OBR_UK.
This is one of the most cost-effective levers the government has to achieve a quick reduction in child poverty, given the high poverty rates among larger families.
#Budget2025
This is one of the most cost-effective levers the government has to achieve a quick reduction in child poverty, given the high poverty rates among larger families.
#Budget2025
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
If there were an election tomorrow, more net tax increases would have been announced in this parliament than in any other since at least 1970.
#Budget2025
#Budget2025
November 26, 2025 at 2:12 PM
If there were an election tomorrow, more net tax increases would have been announced in this parliament than in any other since at least 1970.
#Budget2025
#Budget2025
The Government has announced that the adult minimum wage will increase by 4.1% to £12.71. This is likely to be faster than inflation and average earnings growth. The UK’s minimum wage is already one of the highest amongst developed countries and this will push it higher.
November 26, 2025 at 10:07 AM
The Government has announced that the adult minimum wage will increase by 4.1% to £12.71. This is likely to be faster than inflation and average earnings growth. The UK’s minimum wage is already one of the highest amongst developed countries and this will push it higher.
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
NEW: Depressive symptoms have risen among women in their late 50s and early 60s, particularly among the least wealthy women.
📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social and Jonathan Cribb's new report examines health, wealth and employment in the run-up to the state pension age: [THREAD]
📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social and Jonathan Cribb's new report examines health, wealth and employment in the run-up to the state pension age: [THREAD]
November 19, 2025 at 8:15 AM
NEW: Depressive symptoms have risen among women in their late 50s and early 60s, particularly among the least wealthy women.
📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social and Jonathan Cribb's new report examines health, wealth and employment in the run-up to the state pension age: [THREAD]
📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social and Jonathan Cribb's new report examines health, wealth and employment in the run-up to the state pension age: [THREAD]
New work out on children receiving support for disabilities in school and/or benefit system.
50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22.
Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate
50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22.
Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate
Children who receive support are more likely to be out-of-work or education, receiving out-of-work benefits, or receiving health-related benefits at age 22.
There is very little evidence on how systems of support could improve these long-term outcomes.
There is very little evidence on how systems of support could improve these long-term outcomes.
October 3, 2025 at 11:35 AM
New work out on children receiving support for disabilities in school and/or benefit system.
50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22.
Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate
50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22.
Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
NEW: The share of children receiving disability support and the share on high-level special educational support have both doubled since 2016.
THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:
THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:
October 3, 2025 at 7:05 AM
NEW: The share of children receiving disability support and the share on high-level special educational support have both doubled since 2016.
THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:
THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
Three years on from Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's mini budget, I've written for @theobserveruk.bsky.social about its legacy and the lessons the Chancellor, her team and her backbench MPs (including would-be MPs) should keep in mind this autumn.
This point is especially important.
This point is especially important.
September 25, 2025 at 6:54 AM
Three years on from Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's mini budget, I've written for @theobserveruk.bsky.social about its legacy and the lessons the Chancellor, her team and her backbench MPs (including would-be MPs) should keep in mind this autumn.
This point is especially important.
This point is especially important.
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
Educational attainment gaps between richer and poorer children are well documented.
Despite the two-child limit substantially reducing larger families' incomes, our new research finds it had no effect on the school readiness of affected children:
[THREAD:🧵]
Despite the two-child limit substantially reducing larger families' incomes, our new research finds it had no effect on the school readiness of affected children:
[THREAD:🧵]
September 24, 2025 at 6:34 AM
Educational attainment gaps between richer and poorer children are well documented.
Despite the two-child limit substantially reducing larger families' incomes, our new research finds it had no effect on the school readiness of affected children:
[THREAD:🧵]
Despite the two-child limit substantially reducing larger families' incomes, our new research finds it had no effect on the school readiness of affected children:
[THREAD:🧵]
@matthewoulton.bsky.social and I have a new @theifs.bsky.social comment out looking at the case for transitional protections for existing claimants when making benefit cuts and some of the related risks. We use the government's recent benefit reforms as an example. A short thread🧵
August 27, 2025 at 12:17 PM
@matthewoulton.bsky.social and I have a new @theifs.bsky.social comment out looking at the case for transitional protections for existing claimants when making benefit cuts and some of the related risks. We use the government's recent benefit reforms as an example. A short thread🧵
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts?
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms:
ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms:
ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...
When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts? | Institute for Fiscal Studies
Important trade-offs are involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts.
ifs.org.uk
August 27, 2025 at 8:42 AM
When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts?
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms:
ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms:
ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...
Last month, a new detailed survey of mental health amongst adults in England came out. Headline result is that more 16-64-year-olds have a common mental health conditions than in any previous wave of the survey over last 30 years. A brief thread...
July 15, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Last month, a new detailed survey of mental health amongst adults in England came out. Headline result is that more 16-64-year-olds have a common mental health conditions than in any previous wave of the survey over last 30 years. A brief thread...
So after a lot of debate and a lot of talk about fiscal sustainability, the confirmed reforms in the government's UC/PIP bill (so excluding the Timms review) will effectively save nothing by 2029/30.
July 1, 2025 at 7:27 PM
So after a lot of debate and a lot of talk about fiscal sustainability, the confirmed reforms in the government's UC/PIP bill (so excluding the Timms review) will effectively save nothing by 2029/30.
The Government have announced changes to their proposed benefit reforms. By 2029/30 the original plans would have saved £5.5bn, but revised plans will only save £2.5bn so changes cost £3bn. However, since all changes only protect current claimants, long run savings from package still around £11bn.
June 27, 2025 at 11:05 AM
The Government have announced changes to their proposed benefit reforms. By 2029/30 the original plans would have saved £5.5bn, but revised plans will only save £2.5bn so changes cost £3bn. However, since all changes only protect current claimants, long run savings from package still around £11bn.
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
NEW: Changes to health-related benefit reforms would reduce saving from the planned bill by £3 billion in 2029–30, but would create a huge difference in support between claimants.
Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new briefing here: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new briefing here: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
June 27, 2025 at 10:24 AM
NEW: Changes to health-related benefit reforms would reduce saving from the planned bill by £3 billion in 2029–30, but would create a huge difference in support between claimants.
Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new briefing here: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new briefing here: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
There are lots of rumours about potential changes to the government's benefit reforms in response to political challenges. The table below shows the costs and impacts on claimants of various options. If the government does choose to scale back overall cut, they have decision about who to help.
June 26, 2025 at 3:53 PM
There are lots of rumours about potential changes to the government's benefit reforms in response to political challenges. The table below shows the costs and impacts on claimants of various options. If the government does choose to scale back overall cut, they have decision about who to help.
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
NEW: There's significant speculation that the proposed measures in next week's bill on universal credit and personal independence payments could be scaled back.
Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton discuss some of the government's options: ifs.org.uk/articles/opt...
Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton discuss some of the government's options: ifs.org.uk/articles/opt...
Options for adjustments to the universal credit and personal independence payment bill | Institute for Fiscal Studies
There's significant speculation that some of the proposed disability benefit changes will be scaled back: we discuss some of the government's options.
ifs.org.uk
June 26, 2025 at 3:26 PM
NEW: There's significant speculation that the proposed measures in next week's bill on universal credit and personal independence payments could be scaled back.
Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton discuss some of the government's options: ifs.org.uk/articles/opt...
Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton discuss some of the government's options: ifs.org.uk/articles/opt...
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
NEW: Government's benefit reforms could reduce annual spending by around £11 billion in the long run – but still leave health-related benefit bill far above pre-pandemic levels.
Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new report: ifs.org.uk/publications...
Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new report: ifs.org.uk/publications...
The government’s proposed reforms to health-related benefits: incomes, insurance, and incentives | Institute for Fiscal Studies
This report examines how the government’s recent proposed welfare reforms affect incomes, insurance, and incentives to work and claim benefits.
ifs.org.uk
June 26, 2025 at 8:37 AM
NEW: Government's benefit reforms could reduce annual spending by around £11 billion in the long run – but still leave health-related benefit bill far above pre-pandemic levels.
Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new report: ifs.org.uk/publications...
Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new report: ifs.org.uk/publications...
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
NEW: The tax system is making net zero more costly than it has to be.
@lgadenne.bsky.social and Bobbie Upton’s new briefing demonstrates how emissions from electricity are taxed much more heavily than emissions from gas:
[THREAD]
@lgadenne.bsky.social and Bobbie Upton’s new briefing demonstrates how emissions from electricity are taxed much more heavily than emissions from gas:
[THREAD]
June 25, 2025 at 6:31 AM
NEW: The tax system is making net zero more costly than it has to be.
@lgadenne.bsky.social and Bobbie Upton’s new briefing demonstrates how emissions from electricity are taxed much more heavily than emissions from gas:
[THREAD]
@lgadenne.bsky.social and Bobbie Upton’s new briefing demonstrates how emissions from electricity are taxed much more heavily than emissions from gas:
[THREAD]
Last week the Government released more information on their planned tightening of eligibility to disability benefits, with striking figures on health conditions and age. A short thread (1/8)
May 8, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Last week the Government released more information on their planned tightening of eligibility to disability benefits, with striking figures on health conditions and age. A short thread (1/8)
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
State pension age starts rising again in April 2026. Most people in their early 60s know their state pension age, but a significant minority are incorrect or unaware.
This is worrying as people may base retirement and saving decisions on incorrect information. Short thread👇
This is worrying as people may base retirement and saving decisions on incorrect information. Short thread👇
NEW: One-in-six of those with a state pension age between 66 and 67 – around 130,000 people – either underestimate or do not know when they’ll be able to claim their state pension.
@heidikarj.bsky.social's new Pensions Review briefing looks at people's state pension age awareness: [THREAD]
@heidikarj.bsky.social's new Pensions Review briefing looks at people's state pension age awareness: [THREAD]
April 7, 2025 at 9:31 AM
State pension age starts rising again in April 2026. Most people in their early 60s know their state pension age, but a significant minority are incorrect or unaware.
This is worrying as people may base retirement and saving decisions on incorrect information. Short thread👇
This is worrying as people may base retirement and saving decisions on incorrect information. Short thread👇
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
NEW: Tomorrow marks the end of tax credits and their replacement with universal credit, over 20 years since their introduction.
Matt Oulton and Tom Wernham's new briefing examines how they changed the UK's welfare system and their legacy: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
Matt Oulton and Tom Wernham's new briefing examines how they changed the UK's welfare system and their legacy: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
How did tax credits transform the UK welfare system? | Institute for Fiscal Studies
Over 20 years since they were introduced, tax credits have now been replaced by universal credit. How did they change the UK welfare system?
ifs.org.uk
April 4, 2025 at 9:23 AM
NEW: Tomorrow marks the end of tax credits and their replacement with universal credit, over 20 years since their introduction.
Matt Oulton and Tom Wernham's new briefing examines how they changed the UK's welfare system and their legacy: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
Matt Oulton and Tom Wernham's new briefing examines how they changed the UK's welfare system and their legacy: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
NEW: New data suggest dramatic decline in living standards, but it may just be the quality of the data that has declined.
Read our briefing on the new household incomes data for 2023–24 released this morning: ifs.org.uk/articles/new...
Read our briefing on the new household incomes data for 2023–24 released this morning: ifs.org.uk/articles/new...
March 27, 2025 at 11:46 AM
NEW: New data suggest dramatic decline in living standards, but it may just be the quality of the data that has declined.
Read our briefing on the new household incomes data for 2023–24 released this morning: ifs.org.uk/articles/new...
Read our briefing on the new household incomes data for 2023–24 released this morning: ifs.org.uk/articles/new...