Eduin Latimer
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social
Economist at Institute for Fiscal Studies, interested in low-paying labour market and the tax and benefit system.
New work out on children receiving support for disabilities in school and/or benefit system.
50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22.
Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate
50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22.
Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate
Children who receive support are more likely to be out-of-work or education, receiving out-of-work benefits, or receiving health-related benefits at age 22.
There is very little evidence on how systems of support could improve these long-term outcomes.
There is very little evidence on how systems of support could improve these long-term outcomes.
October 3, 2025 at 11:35 AM
New work out on children receiving support for disabilities in school and/or benefit system.
50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22.
Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate
50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22.
Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
NEW: The share of children receiving disability support and the share on high-level special educational support have both doubled since 2016.
THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:
THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:
October 3, 2025 at 7:05 AM
NEW: The share of children receiving disability support and the share on high-level special educational support have both doubled since 2016.
THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:
THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
Three years on from Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's mini budget, I've written for @theobserveruk.bsky.social about its legacy and the lessons the Chancellor, her team and her backbench MPs (including would-be MPs) should keep in mind this autumn.
This point is especially important.
This point is especially important.
September 25, 2025 at 6:54 AM
Three years on from Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's mini budget, I've written for @theobserveruk.bsky.social about its legacy and the lessons the Chancellor, her team and her backbench MPs (including would-be MPs) should keep in mind this autumn.
This point is especially important.
This point is especially important.
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
Educational attainment gaps between richer and poorer children are well documented.
Despite the two-child limit substantially reducing larger families' incomes, our new research finds it had no effect on the school readiness of affected children:
[THREAD:🧵]
Despite the two-child limit substantially reducing larger families' incomes, our new research finds it had no effect on the school readiness of affected children:
[THREAD:🧵]
September 24, 2025 at 6:34 AM
Educational attainment gaps between richer and poorer children are well documented.
Despite the two-child limit substantially reducing larger families' incomes, our new research finds it had no effect on the school readiness of affected children:
[THREAD:🧵]
Despite the two-child limit substantially reducing larger families' incomes, our new research finds it had no effect on the school readiness of affected children:
[THREAD:🧵]
@matthewoulton.bsky.social and I have a new @theifs.bsky.social comment out looking at the case for transitional protections for existing claimants when making benefit cuts and some of the related risks. We use the government's recent benefit reforms as an example. A short thread🧵
August 27, 2025 at 12:17 PM
@matthewoulton.bsky.social and I have a new @theifs.bsky.social comment out looking at the case for transitional protections for existing claimants when making benefit cuts and some of the related risks. We use the government's recent benefit reforms as an example. A short thread🧵
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts?
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms:
ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms:
ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...
When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts? | Institute for Fiscal Studies
Important trade-offs are involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts.
ifs.org.uk
August 27, 2025 at 8:42 AM
When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts?
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms:
ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms:
ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...
Last month, a new detailed survey of mental health amongst adults in England came out. Headline result is that more 16-64-year-olds have a common mental health conditions than in any previous wave of the survey over last 30 years. A brief thread...
July 15, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Last month, a new detailed survey of mental health amongst adults in England came out. Headline result is that more 16-64-year-olds have a common mental health conditions than in any previous wave of the survey over last 30 years. A brief thread...
So after a lot of debate and a lot of talk about fiscal sustainability, the confirmed reforms in the government's UC/PIP bill (so excluding the Timms review) will effectively save nothing by 2029/30.
July 1, 2025 at 7:27 PM
So after a lot of debate and a lot of talk about fiscal sustainability, the confirmed reforms in the government's UC/PIP bill (so excluding the Timms review) will effectively save nothing by 2029/30.
The Government have announced changes to their proposed benefit reforms. By 2029/30 the original plans would have saved £5.5bn, but revised plans will only save £2.5bn so changes cost £3bn. However, since all changes only protect current claimants, long run savings from package still around £11bn.
June 27, 2025 at 11:05 AM
The Government have announced changes to their proposed benefit reforms. By 2029/30 the original plans would have saved £5.5bn, but revised plans will only save £2.5bn so changes cost £3bn. However, since all changes only protect current claimants, long run savings from package still around £11bn.
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
NEW: Changes to health-related benefit reforms would reduce saving from the planned bill by £3 billion in 2029–30, but would create a huge difference in support between claimants.
Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new briefing here: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new briefing here: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
June 27, 2025 at 10:24 AM
NEW: Changes to health-related benefit reforms would reduce saving from the planned bill by £3 billion in 2029–30, but would create a huge difference in support between claimants.
Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new briefing here: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new briefing here: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
There are lots of rumours about potential changes to the government's benefit reforms in response to political challenges. The table below shows the costs and impacts on claimants of various options. If the government does choose to scale back overall cut, they have decision about who to help.
June 26, 2025 at 3:53 PM
There are lots of rumours about potential changes to the government's benefit reforms in response to political challenges. The table below shows the costs and impacts on claimants of various options. If the government does choose to scale back overall cut, they have decision about who to help.
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
NEW: There's significant speculation that the proposed measures in next week's bill on universal credit and personal independence payments could be scaled back.
Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton discuss some of the government's options: ifs.org.uk/articles/opt...
Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton discuss some of the government's options: ifs.org.uk/articles/opt...
Options for adjustments to the universal credit and personal independence payment bill | Institute for Fiscal Studies
There's significant speculation that some of the proposed disability benefit changes will be scaled back: we discuss some of the government's options.
ifs.org.uk
June 26, 2025 at 3:26 PM
NEW: There's significant speculation that the proposed measures in next week's bill on universal credit and personal independence payments could be scaled back.
Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton discuss some of the government's options: ifs.org.uk/articles/opt...
Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton discuss some of the government's options: ifs.org.uk/articles/opt...
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
NEW: Government's benefit reforms could reduce annual spending by around £11 billion in the long run – but still leave health-related benefit bill far above pre-pandemic levels.
Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new report: ifs.org.uk/publications...
Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new report: ifs.org.uk/publications...
The government’s proposed reforms to health-related benefits: incomes, insurance, and incentives | Institute for Fiscal Studies
This report examines how the government’s recent proposed welfare reforms affect incomes, insurance, and incentives to work and claim benefits.
ifs.org.uk
June 26, 2025 at 8:37 AM
NEW: Government's benefit reforms could reduce annual spending by around £11 billion in the long run – but still leave health-related benefit bill far above pre-pandemic levels.
Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new report: ifs.org.uk/publications...
Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new report: ifs.org.uk/publications...
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
NEW: The tax system is making net zero more costly than it has to be.
@lgadenne.bsky.social and Bobbie Upton’s new briefing demonstrates how emissions from electricity are taxed much more heavily than emissions from gas:
[THREAD]
@lgadenne.bsky.social and Bobbie Upton’s new briefing demonstrates how emissions from electricity are taxed much more heavily than emissions from gas:
[THREAD]
June 25, 2025 at 6:31 AM
NEW: The tax system is making net zero more costly than it has to be.
@lgadenne.bsky.social and Bobbie Upton’s new briefing demonstrates how emissions from electricity are taxed much more heavily than emissions from gas:
[THREAD]
@lgadenne.bsky.social and Bobbie Upton’s new briefing demonstrates how emissions from electricity are taxed much more heavily than emissions from gas:
[THREAD]
Last week the Government released more information on their planned tightening of eligibility to disability benefits, with striking figures on health conditions and age. A short thread (1/8)
May 8, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Last week the Government released more information on their planned tightening of eligibility to disability benefits, with striking figures on health conditions and age. A short thread (1/8)
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
State pension age starts rising again in April 2026. Most people in their early 60s know their state pension age, but a significant minority are incorrect or unaware.
This is worrying as people may base retirement and saving decisions on incorrect information. Short thread👇
This is worrying as people may base retirement and saving decisions on incorrect information. Short thread👇
NEW: One-in-six of those with a state pension age between 66 and 67 – around 130,000 people – either underestimate or do not know when they’ll be able to claim their state pension.
@heidikarj.bsky.social's new Pensions Review briefing looks at people's state pension age awareness: [THREAD]
@heidikarj.bsky.social's new Pensions Review briefing looks at people's state pension age awareness: [THREAD]
April 7, 2025 at 9:31 AM
State pension age starts rising again in April 2026. Most people in their early 60s know their state pension age, but a significant minority are incorrect or unaware.
This is worrying as people may base retirement and saving decisions on incorrect information. Short thread👇
This is worrying as people may base retirement and saving decisions on incorrect information. Short thread👇
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
NEW: Tomorrow marks the end of tax credits and their replacement with universal credit, over 20 years since their introduction.
Matt Oulton and Tom Wernham's new briefing examines how they changed the UK's welfare system and their legacy: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
Matt Oulton and Tom Wernham's new briefing examines how they changed the UK's welfare system and their legacy: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
How did tax credits transform the UK welfare system? | Institute for Fiscal Studies
Over 20 years since they were introduced, tax credits have now been replaced by universal credit. How did they change the UK welfare system?
ifs.org.uk
April 4, 2025 at 9:23 AM
NEW: Tomorrow marks the end of tax credits and their replacement with universal credit, over 20 years since their introduction.
Matt Oulton and Tom Wernham's new briefing examines how they changed the UK's welfare system and their legacy: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
Matt Oulton and Tom Wernham's new briefing examines how they changed the UK's welfare system and their legacy: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
NEW: New data suggest dramatic decline in living standards, but it may just be the quality of the data that has declined.
Read our briefing on the new household incomes data for 2023–24 released this morning: ifs.org.uk/articles/new...
Read our briefing on the new household incomes data for 2023–24 released this morning: ifs.org.uk/articles/new...
March 27, 2025 at 11:46 AM
NEW: New data suggest dramatic decline in living standards, but it may just be the quality of the data that has declined.
Read our briefing on the new household incomes data for 2023–24 released this morning: ifs.org.uk/articles/new...
Read our briefing on the new household incomes data for 2023–24 released this morning: ifs.org.uk/articles/new...
Important chart to put the Spring Statement welfare reforms into context. Over last fifteen years we have seen a shift in working-age welfare spending towards health-related benefits.
OBR projections suggest the Government's plans will slow this trend but not stop it.
OBR projections suggest the Government's plans will slow this trend but not stop it.
Over the last fifteen years, health-related benefits have grown from 22% of working-age welfare spending to 40% of spending.
These changes are projected to slow the rise, but not stop it.
These changes are projected to slow the rise, but not stop it.
March 27, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Important chart to put the Spring Statement welfare reforms into context. Over last fifteen years we have seen a shift in working-age welfare spending towards health-related benefits.
OBR projections suggest the Government's plans will slow this trend but not stop it.
OBR projections suggest the Government's plans will slow this trend but not stop it.
A key chart to understand today's green paper. Govt plans to close the gap between incapacity and unemployment benefits for new claimants. They hope it will reduce claims to incapacity benefits and encourage work but it does mean less support for someone who faces a health shock in future.
Over the last 50 years, successive governments have widened the gap between the basic level of unemployment benefit and the highest level of incapacity benefit.
These changes will significantly narrow that gap.
These changes will significantly narrow that gap.
March 18, 2025 at 7:35 PM
A key chart to understand today's green paper. Govt plans to close the gap between incapacity and unemployment benefits for new claimants. They hope it will reduce claims to incapacity benefits and encourage work but it does mean less support for someone who faces a health shock in future.
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
NEW: Today’s announced reforms to disability and incapacity benefits represent a fundamental change to how the state supports people out of work.
As a whole they're expected to save over £5 billion by 2029–30, the biggest cut to welfare in any fiscal event since 2015:
[THREAD]
As a whole they're expected to save over £5 billion by 2029–30, the biggest cut to welfare in any fiscal event since 2015:
[THREAD]
March 18, 2025 at 5:59 PM
NEW: Today’s announced reforms to disability and incapacity benefits represent a fundamental change to how the state supports people out of work.
As a whole they're expected to save over £5 billion by 2029–30, the biggest cut to welfare in any fiscal event since 2015:
[THREAD]
As a whole they're expected to save over £5 billion by 2029–30, the biggest cut to welfare in any fiscal event since 2015:
[THREAD]
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
NEW: It has been widely reported that the government is looking to make significant savings from the working-age disability and incapacity benefits budget.
How might they do this and what kind of scale of changes would be required?
[THREAD]
How might they do this and what kind of scale of changes would be required?
[THREAD]
March 17, 2025 at 4:00 PM
NEW: It has been widely reported that the government is looking to make significant savings from the working-age disability and incapacity benefits budget.
How might they do this and what kind of scale of changes would be required?
[THREAD]
How might they do this and what kind of scale of changes would be required?
[THREAD]
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
As highlighted in a recent BBC article, overall death rates in the UK were back on the pre-pandemic trend in 2024, hitting an all time low.
However, the overall death rate is dominated by what’s going on at older ages where most deaths happen. The news is much worse at working ages. 🧵 1/5
However, the overall death rate is dominated by what’s going on at older ages where most deaths happen. The news is much worse at working ages. 🧵 1/5
March 15, 2025 at 1:59 PM
As highlighted in a recent BBC article, overall death rates in the UK were back on the pre-pandemic trend in 2024, hitting an all time low.
However, the overall death rate is dominated by what’s going on at older ages where most deaths happen. The news is much worse at working ages. 🧵 1/5
However, the overall death rate is dominated by what’s going on at older ages where most deaths happen. The news is much worse at working ages. 🧵 1/5
Reposted by Eduin Latimer
Key chart on this: the post-pandemic increase in disability and incapacity claims is a UK-specific issue. It does not appear to have happened elsewhere (apart from a little bit in Denmark). In many countries the number of claimants has fallen post-Covid.
ifs.org.uk/publications...
ifs.org.uk/publications...
March 12, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Key chart on this: the post-pandemic increase in disability and incapacity claims is a UK-specific issue. It does not appear to have happened elsewhere (apart from a little bit in Denmark). In many countries the number of claimants has fallen post-Covid.
ifs.org.uk/publications...
ifs.org.uk/publications...
New report out today with colleagues @theifs.bsky.social and funded by @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @healthfoundation.bsky.social.
We look at what we know about the role of changing health and reported disability in the 38% rise in people claiming disability benefits since the pandemic. A 🧵 [1/10]
We look at what we know about the role of changing health and reported disability in the 38% rise in people claiming disability benefits since the pandemic. A 🧵 [1/10]
March 12, 2025 at 3:56 PM
New report out today with colleagues @theifs.bsky.social and funded by @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @healthfoundation.bsky.social.
We look at what we know about the role of changing health and reported disability in the 38% rise in people claiming disability benefits since the pandemic. A 🧵 [1/10]
We look at what we know about the role of changing health and reported disability in the 38% rise in people claiming disability benefits since the pandemic. A 🧵 [1/10]