You can also watch back to our event discussing the report with valuable comments from
@ruthpatrick0.bsky.social here: ifs.org.uk/events/why-d...

For lots more detail and interesting facts you can read the green budget chapter here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

And this is a growing issue. The share of children getting high-level targeted support for additional needs has doubled across both the benefit and education systems.

Final note: long-lasting protections for existing claimants are not unique to this government. There are many previous reforms where governments faced similar trade-offs. We discuss them in the comment: ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...

We think the case for transitional protections tends to become weaker the longer they last. We therefore think there’s a case for looking at putting a time limit on these transitional protections. This time limit could be long so protections last years without being permanent.

The second big downside is that it can create perverse incentives. In this case, it reduces the incentive for existing claimants to end their claim, for instance by looking for work. The OBR estimate that 30,000 fewer people will end their UC Health claims due to these protections.

However, there are downsides to transitional protections too. First, they can lead to treating very similar claimants differently. In this case, two people with the exact same level of disability will receive very different levels of support based on the precise date they started their claim.

There is a strong case for providing transitional protections. Adjusting to immediate cuts in income is particularly hard as some types of spending (such as rental contracts) are hard to adjust quickly. Transitional protections can make adjusting to an income cut easier.

The protections for existing claimants will also last a long time. Currently around 15% of incapacity benefit (including UC health) claimants have been claiming for 15 years or longer. In 2041 there will still be around 400,000 people who get extra UC health because of this protection.

These protections are a big decision. They reduce the savings from the reform in 2029/30 by around £5 billion.

First, what were the transitional protections in the recent reforms? The big cut (around £2,500 a year) was for new claimants to the health element of universal credit. In contrast, the government decided to fully protect existing claimants, so they see no cut to their income in real-terms.

Apologies, 2014 figures in initial graph in the above were inaccurate. Corrected graph here, no change to key message.

This survey provides more evidence of a worsening in population mental health that may be contributing to rising disability benefit claims. But it is unlikely to be the whole explanation. The design of the benefits system and changes in real incomes are also likely to playing a role.

This evidence on population mental health helps throw more light on the recent growth in disability benefit claims in the UK, where we have seen the fastest increase in claims relating to mental health or learning and behavioural conditions.

People who are out of work are much more likely to have a common mental health condition and the gap between those in and out of work has grown in last ten years. This may help to explain part of the rise in people who report not working due to ill health.

Anxiety is the fastest growing mental health condition, double as many people report the symptoms of generalised anxiety disorder as did in 2007. The most common condition remains the vague “common mental health condition-not otherwise specified” category.

The results from this new survey match the trend from four other surveys that we @theifs.bsky.social found when we looked at this earlier this year.

Anxiety is the fastest growing mental health condition although, twice as many people are reporting the symptoms for it as did in 2007. The most common mental health condition remains the vague “common mental health condition-not otherwise specified” category.