Dr Luke Mansillo
@lukemansillo.com
Political scientist: public opinion, political behaviour, survey research methods, advanced democracy elections, Australian politics and racial politics. Penchant for Bayesian statistics.
https://www.lukemansillo.com
https://www.lukemansillo.com
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Anthropologists have discovered a lost tribe that uses the "one, two, many" system of counting.
November 10, 2025 at 4:57 AM
Anthropologists have discovered a lost tribe that uses the "one, two, many" system of counting.
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
A two-headed coin.
Isn’t it the perfect symbol of Trumpian politics?
Heads, I win. Heads, I win. Again.
Yes, the odds are forever stacked against you!
Isn’t it the perfect symbol of Trumpian politics?
Heads, I win. Heads, I win. Again.
Yes, the odds are forever stacked against you!
November 9, 2025 at 4:45 PM
A two-headed coin.
Isn’t it the perfect symbol of Trumpian politics?
Heads, I win. Heads, I win. Again.
Yes, the odds are forever stacked against you!
Isn’t it the perfect symbol of Trumpian politics?
Heads, I win. Heads, I win. Again.
Yes, the odds are forever stacked against you!
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Here's a law professor lamenting the fads in legal theory popular among law professors that become popular for a decade or two and then fade away— written in 1950. Specifically, it's Roscoe Pound, reflecting on trends since he became a lawyer in 1890.
jle.aals.org/cgi/viewcont...
jle.aals.org/cgi/viewcont...
November 9, 2025 at 5:43 AM
Here's a law professor lamenting the fads in legal theory popular among law professors that become popular for a decade or two and then fade away— written in 1950. Specifically, it's Roscoe Pound, reflecting on trends since he became a lawyer in 1890.
jle.aals.org/cgi/viewcont...
jle.aals.org/cgi/viewcont...
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
free markets, amirite?
every time you think the new WaPo editorial board can't embarrass itself any more, they manage to find a way.
Left: 'Texas gerrymandering is no big deal!', from August.
Right: 'Maryland gerrymandering is an affront to Western civilization!', from today.
Left: 'Texas gerrymandering is no big deal!', from August.
Right: 'Maryland gerrymandering is an affront to Western civilization!', from today.
November 8, 2025 at 5:53 PM
free markets, amirite?
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Also remarkable: the polarisation of young UK voters. Top two parties supported now Reform and Greens
on.ft.com/4qKurLm Young Britons’ attitudes hardening on crime and welfare
on.ft.com/4qKurLm Young Britons’ attitudes hardening on crime and welfare
November 3, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Also remarkable: the polarisation of young UK voters. Top two parties supported now Reform and Greens
on.ft.com/4qKurLm Young Britons’ attitudes hardening on crime and welfare
on.ft.com/4qKurLm Young Britons’ attitudes hardening on crime and welfare
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
For anyone interested in nationalization, have we got a book for you: global.oup.com/academic/pro...
November 1, 2025 at 1:54 AM
For anyone interested in nationalization, have we got a book for you: global.oup.com/academic/pro...
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report.
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
aapor.org
October 29, 2025 at 8:16 PM
It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report.
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
When assessing the 2025 wins and losses, it’s important to also put them in the context of the 2023 wins and losses. Compared to 2021
D66 +3
PVV +8
GL/PvdA +3
VVD -11
CDA +4
D66 +3
PVV +8
GL/PvdA +3
VVD -11
CDA +4
October 29, 2025 at 11:28 PM
When assessing the 2025 wins and losses, it’s important to also put them in the context of the 2023 wins and losses. Compared to 2021
D66 +3
PVV +8
GL/PvdA +3
VVD -11
CDA +4
D66 +3
PVV +8
GL/PvdA +3
VVD -11
CDA +4
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Dutch parliament reads like the results of a blood test
Netherlands, 9:30 PM Ipsos-I&O exit poll:
Seat projection national parliament
D66-RE: 27 (+18)
PVV-PfE: 25 (-12)
VVD-RE: 23 (-1)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
FvD-ESN: 6 (+3)
BBB-EPP: 4 (-3)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
Seat projection national parliament
D66-RE: 27 (+18)
PVV-PfE: 25 (-12)
VVD-RE: 23 (-1)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
FvD-ESN: 6 (+3)
BBB-EPP: 4 (-3)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
October 29, 2025 at 11:21 PM
Dutch parliament reads like the results of a blood test
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
The ACTU’s Liam O’Brien talking about the rort that is the PRRT #RevenueSummit
October 28, 2025 at 11:47 PM
The ACTU’s Liam O’Brien talking about the rort that is the PRRT #RevenueSummit
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Discounted but not ‘affordable’: NSW policy to build cheaper rental apartments a boon for developers
Discounted but not ‘affordable’: NSW policy to build cheaper rental apartments a boon for developers
Developers flock to build ‘affordable’ housing – but are poised to reap benefits while tenants could pay 50% of post-tax income in rent
*
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A small block of units on Clovelly Road built in 2021 was granted extra floor space so the developer could add five affordable units, taking the total development to 13. The units, three minutes’ walk from the beach, with parking and a bus stop outside, are in a highly desirable spot.
But “affordable” they are not. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
October 28, 2025 at 11:48 PM
Discounted but not ‘affordable’: NSW policy to build cheaper rental apartments a boon for developers
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Post-liberalism has distinctive British and US sources but increasingly the US elements are driving changes in British politics - see my new book Against Post Liberalism to find out why and to see why that might be a problem… @lsegovernment.bsky.social @politybooks.bsky.social #Postliberalism
October 26, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Post-liberalism has distinctive British and US sources but increasingly the US elements are driving changes in British politics - see my new book Against Post Liberalism to find out why and to see why that might be a problem… @lsegovernment.bsky.social @politybooks.bsky.social #Postliberalism
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
The most Republican guy is the guy who owns the used car dealership, a tanning salon, and a boat in a place that has been economically decimated by deindustrialization
See, for instance:
See, for instance:
October 24, 2025 at 2:17 PM
The most Republican guy is the guy who owns the used car dealership, a tanning salon, and a boat in a place that has been economically decimated by deindustrialization
See, for instance:
See, for instance:
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Sounds eerily like what happened in Scotland and helped lead to the SNP sweeping the board in Westminster seats - amazing that Labour didn't learn that hard lesson! (Source: www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...)
October 24, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Sounds eerily like what happened in Scotland and helped lead to the SNP sweeping the board in Westminster seats - amazing that Labour didn't learn that hard lesson! (Source: www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...)
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
At some point it has to become clear that this tech exists is to create a more toxic society and enrich its owners. These uses are not aberrations but rather the entire purpose.
OpenAI's Sora 2 Can Generate Videos of Celebrities Appearing to Shout Racial Slurs
OpenAI's Sora 2 video generation model can be exploited to push misinformation and depict public figures behaving badly despite promised guardrails.
www.rollingstone.com
October 23, 2025 at 7:07 PM
At some point it has to become clear that this tech exists is to create a more toxic society and enrich its owners. These uses are not aberrations but rather the entire purpose.
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Of all the housing charts not made by MMI, this one is my favourite. It shows how, despite rhetoric, housing shortages aren't a global phenomenon, but they do seem to be an Anglo-American one.
October 23, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Of all the housing charts not made by MMI, this one is my favourite. It shows how, despite rhetoric, housing shortages aren't a global phenomenon, but they do seem to be an Anglo-American one.
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Now out in Party Politics 🎉
Our study (@jbpilet.bsky.social)suggests that when a mainstream right-wing party signals willingness to rule with the radical right, support for the radical right rises — while the mainstream gains nothing.
👉 A legitimisation effect.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Our study (@jbpilet.bsky.social)suggests that when a mainstream right-wing party signals willingness to rule with the radical right, support for the radical right rises — while the mainstream gains nothing.
👉 A legitimisation effect.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
October 24, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Now out in Party Politics 🎉
Our study (@jbpilet.bsky.social)suggests that when a mainstream right-wing party signals willingness to rule with the radical right, support for the radical right rises — while the mainstream gains nothing.
👉 A legitimisation effect.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Our study (@jbpilet.bsky.social)suggests that when a mainstream right-wing party signals willingness to rule with the radical right, support for the radical right rises — while the mainstream gains nothing.
👉 A legitimisation effect.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Chatbots offer explicit vote advice ahead of elections.
A simple prompt leads to receiving an advice for the Dutch October 29 elections ⬇️
The Dutch Data Protection Authority concluded: AI chatbots are not transparent, they are not auditable, and providers should prevent use as vote advice.
A simple prompt leads to receiving an advice for the Dutch October 29 elections ⬇️
The Dutch Data Protection Authority concluded: AI chatbots are not transparent, they are not auditable, and providers should prevent use as vote advice.
October 21, 2025 at 9:30 AM
Chatbots offer explicit vote advice ahead of elections.
A simple prompt leads to receiving an advice for the Dutch October 29 elections ⬇️
The Dutch Data Protection Authority concluded: AI chatbots are not transparent, they are not auditable, and providers should prevent use as vote advice.
A simple prompt leads to receiving an advice for the Dutch October 29 elections ⬇️
The Dutch Data Protection Authority concluded: AI chatbots are not transparent, they are not auditable, and providers should prevent use as vote advice.
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
From the article referenced below: tldr esp. in authoritarian systems, mediocrities and worse tend to go into the secret police b/c those with better performance have better opportunities elsewhere, so secret police gets the dregs who are extra-dependable because the thing they can offer is loyalty
October 23, 2025 at 7:24 PM
From the article referenced below: tldr esp. in authoritarian systems, mediocrities and worse tend to go into the secret police b/c those with better performance have better opportunities elsewhere, so secret police gets the dregs who are extra-dependable because the thing they can offer is loyalty
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Pleased to share that the Kennedy School has been authorized to conduct a faculty search in American politics
This is as an extraordinary opportunity for us - please share widely with your networks and consider applying
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15418
This is as an extraordinary opportunity for us - please share widely with your networks and consider applying
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15418
Professor of Public Policy (American Politics)
Harvard Kennedy School seeks a scholar of the highest distinction to appoint as a professor of public policy, focusing on American politics, elections, and policy. We particularly welcome applications...
academicpositions.harvard.edu
October 23, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Pleased to share that the Kennedy School has been authorized to conduct a faculty search in American politics
This is as an extraordinary opportunity for us - please share widely with your networks and consider applying
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15418
This is as an extraordinary opportunity for us - please share widely with your networks and consider applying
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15418
I discussed speculation of Barnaby Joyce's defection to One Nation this morning www.youtube.com/watch?v=cch1...
Hanson welcomes Joyce’s speculated defection to One Nation | ABC NEWS
YouTube video by ABC News (Australia)
www.youtube.com
October 19, 2025 at 12:56 AM
I discussed speculation of Barnaby Joyce's defection to One Nation this morning www.youtube.com/watch?v=cch1...
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
“A conservation charity known for its anti-renewables stance has made submissions to federal and state inquiries that name non-existent government authorities and a nonexistent windfarm, and cite scientific articles that the supposed publisher says don’t exist”
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
Queensland anti-renewables group cited nonexistent papers in inquiry submissions using AI, publisher says
Exclusive: Rainforest Reserves Australia has published submissions naming nonexistent government authorities and a nonexistent windfarm
www.theguardian.com
October 17, 2025 at 8:20 PM
“A conservation charity known for its anti-renewables stance has made submissions to federal and state inquiries that name non-existent government authorities and a nonexistent windfarm, and cite scientific articles that the supposed publisher says don’t exist”
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
I’ve come to understand that a lot of it comes from deceiving senior citizens
open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
Spam PACs Raise Money by Deceiving Seniors
One 89-year-old woman made 7,532 donations totaling $68,666
open.substack.com
October 16, 2025 at 9:01 PM
I’ve come to understand that a lot of it comes from deceiving senior citizens
open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
This important paper shows a precipitous drop in girls' achievement in recent years, closing a third of the gap with boys.
Covid doesn't seem to be the smoking gun, but tiktok may be
Covid doesn't seem to be the smoking gun, but tiktok may be
October 10, 2025 at 8:19 AM
This important paper shows a precipitous drop in girls' achievement in recent years, closing a third of the gap with boys.
Covid doesn't seem to be the smoking gun, but tiktok may be
Covid doesn't seem to be the smoking gun, but tiktok may be