Jonathan Terluk
@jonathan.prismorg.com
🏳️🌈. Way bigger in Japan. (unserious, but only when in lowercase.)
DC || linkedin.com/in/jterluk
DC || linkedin.com/in/jterluk
Pinned
Jonathan Terluk
@jonathan.prismorg.com
· Nov 16
With everyone joining this app, I feel like I should introduce myself, so here goes a moderately self-indulgent post.
My name is Jonathan Terluk, I live in DC, and I’m at least one person’s favorite political risk analyst (Hi mom!).
My name is Jonathan Terluk, I live in DC, and I’m at least one person’s favorite political risk analyst (Hi mom!).
thank you for your attention to this matter. I appreciate your cooperation.
October 22, 2025 at 1:01 AM
thank you for your attention to this matter. I appreciate your cooperation.
making polenta. nothing important happen for a bit. i'll be stirring.
October 22, 2025 at 12:32 AM
making polenta. nothing important happen for a bit. i'll be stirring.
Reposted by Jonathan Terluk
EXCLUSIVE: One Saturday afternoon in October, my phone lit up with a notification.
I glanced down at the message.
“Anna, Lindsey Halligan here,” it began.
So began my text exchange with the woman who is prosecuting the president's perceived political enemies.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/anna...
I glanced down at the message.
“Anna, Lindsey Halligan here,” it began.
So began my text exchange with the woman who is prosecuting the president's perceived political enemies.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/anna...
October 20, 2025 at 10:09 PM
EXCLUSIVE: One Saturday afternoon in October, my phone lit up with a notification.
I glanced down at the message.
“Anna, Lindsey Halligan here,” it began.
So began my text exchange with the woman who is prosecuting the president's perceived political enemies.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/anna...
I glanced down at the message.
“Anna, Lindsey Halligan here,” it began.
So began my text exchange with the woman who is prosecuting the president's perceived political enemies.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/anna...
If I were not already of strong opinions concerning the subject of Taiwan 🇹🇼, the last week has only further radicalized me.
What a truly glorious city Taipei and its environs are!
What a truly glorious city Taipei and its environs are!
September 6, 2025 at 7:30 AM
If I were not already of strong opinions concerning the subject of Taiwan 🇹🇼, the last week has only further radicalized me.
What a truly glorious city Taipei and its environs are!
What a truly glorious city Taipei and its environs are!
I am old enough to remember when Trump's trade team was ready to upend the NAFTA renegotiations over Canada and Mexico not raising their de minimis thresholds, and now the US is just not going to have de minimis exemption at all...
August 1, 2025 at 5:27 PM
I am old enough to remember when Trump's trade team was ready to upend the NAFTA renegotiations over Canada and Mexico not raising their de minimis thresholds, and now the US is just not going to have de minimis exemption at all...
It’s not war unless it’s from the authorized region of Congress, otherwise it’s just sparkling conflict.
June 22, 2025 at 12:56 AM
It’s not war unless it’s from the authorized region of Congress, otherwise it’s just sparkling conflict.
zuck totally could have won that fight…
Q: What happened to your eye?
MUSK: Turns out even a 5-year-old punching you in the face ... it bruises up
MUSK: Turns out even a 5-year-old punching you in the face ... it bruises up
May 30, 2025 at 6:49 PM
zuck totally could have won that fight…
good for them.
May 30, 2025 at 2:06 PM
good for them.
now play this in reverse. (tariffs are back on.)
scott bessent right now (probably)
a man standing in front of a delivery room sign
ALT: a man standing in front of a delivery room sign
media.tenor.com
May 29, 2025 at 9:11 PM
now play this in reverse. (tariffs are back on.)
you saw it here first!
May 29, 2025 at 2:06 AM
you saw it here first!
scott bessent right now (probably)
a man standing in front of a delivery room sign
ALT: a man standing in front of a delivery room sign
media.tenor.com
May 29, 2025 at 1:36 AM
scott bessent right now (probably)
Not a single Trump appointee on the US Appeals Court for the Federal Circuit (the court where the tariff case will go), fwiw.
May 29, 2025 at 1:18 AM
Not a single Trump appointee on the US Appeals Court for the Federal Circuit (the court where the tariff case will go), fwiw.
If the tariffs are not based in law, do importers get refunds? Similarly, how long until the bond markets realize that there’s less customs revenue to offset big spending plans? 🤔
May 29, 2025 at 12:07 AM
If the tariffs are not based in law, do importers get refunds? Similarly, how long until the bond markets realize that there’s less customs revenue to offset big spending plans? 🤔
Woah. Big stuff. Everything IEEPA looks to be voided.
Opinion:
“Judgment to Slip-Op. 25-66 entered on 5/28/2025: In accordance with the court's opinion of this date, it is hereby ORDERED that **Executive Order 14193, Imposing Duties To Address the Flow of Illicit Drugs Across Our Northern Border**…
Opinion:
“Judgment to Slip-Op. 25-66 entered on 5/28/2025: In accordance with the court's opinion of this date, it is hereby ORDERED that **Executive Order 14193, Imposing Duties To Address the Flow of Illicit Drugs Across Our Northern Border**…
US Court of International Trade has issued unanimous ruling in case against Trump “liberation day” tariffs
ruling also covers case filed by 12 states led by Oregon
All tariffs invalidated as beyond scope of executive power; implementation blocked by permanent injunction, per @ilyasomin.bsky.social
ruling also covers case filed by 12 states led by Oregon
All tariffs invalidated as beyond scope of executive power; implementation blocked by permanent injunction, per @ilyasomin.bsky.social
May 28, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Woah. Big stuff. Everything IEEPA looks to be voided.
Opinion:
“Judgment to Slip-Op. 25-66 entered on 5/28/2025: In accordance with the court's opinion of this date, it is hereby ORDERED that **Executive Order 14193, Imposing Duties To Address the Flow of Illicit Drugs Across Our Northern Border**…
Opinion:
“Judgment to Slip-Op. 25-66 entered on 5/28/2025: In accordance with the court's opinion of this date, it is hereby ORDERED that **Executive Order 14193, Imposing Duties To Address the Flow of Illicit Drugs Across Our Northern Border**…
Reposted by Jonathan Terluk
Trade Crime Is Soaring, U.S. Firms Say, as Trump’s Tariffs Incentivize Fraud
The chart depicts another scheme to lessen the effect of tariffs.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/27/b...
The chart depicts another scheme to lessen the effect of tariffs.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/27/b...
May 27, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Trade Crime Is Soaring, U.S. Firms Say, as Trump’s Tariffs Incentivize Fraud
The chart depicts another scheme to lessen the effect of tariffs.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/27/b...
The chart depicts another scheme to lessen the effect of tariffs.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/27/b...
Reposted by Jonathan Terluk
Reposted by Jonathan Terluk
SCOTUS lets Trump fire NLRB’s Wilcox and MSRB’s Harris, signals its eagerness to overrule Humphrey’s Executor and destroy independent agencies, and then makes up some reason for why the Fed can retain its independence so as not to fully crash the global economy: www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24p...
May 22, 2025 at 9:05 PM
SCOTUS lets Trump fire NLRB’s Wilcox and MSRB’s Harris, signals its eagerness to overrule Humphrey’s Executor and destroy independent agencies, and then makes up some reason for why the Fed can retain its independence so as not to fully crash the global economy: www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24p...
Reposted by Jonathan Terluk
The tariffs are, of course, a drag on growth. The tax package, otoh, increases the deficit, so + fiscal impulse. What's the expected net impact? According to GS, it's negative. The tariff drag > than the fiscal boost.
That said, when I look at this AM...
That said, when I look at this AM...
May 19, 2025 at 2:54 PM
The tariffs are, of course, a drag on growth. The tax package, otoh, increases the deficit, so + fiscal impulse. What's the expected net impact? According to GS, it's negative. The tariff drag > than the fiscal boost.
That said, when I look at this AM...
That said, when I look at this AM...
took 3 years and 8 days, but am i nosferatu?
May 20, 2025 at 9:32 PM
took 3 years and 8 days, but am i nosferatu?
in a weird twist of events, because Trump likes US oil production and low oil prices (although contradictory), he *might* actually go for this...
⚡EU to push G7 to lower Russian oil price cap, commissioner says.
EU officials told Reuters they would propose bringing the cap down from $60 to $50 per barrel, as Brussels and its allies seek to further reduce the Kremlin's revenue from fossil fuel exports.
EU officials told Reuters they would propose bringing the cap down from $60 to $50 per barrel, as Brussels and its allies seek to further reduce the Kremlin's revenue from fossil fuel exports.
EU to push G7 to lower Russian oil price cap, commissioner says
EU officials told Reuters they would propose bringing the cap down from $60 to $50 per barrel, as Brussels and its allies seek to further reduce the Kremlin's revenue from fossil fuel exports.
kyivindependent.com
May 19, 2025 at 9:00 PM
in a weird twist of events, because Trump likes US oil production and low oil prices (although contradictory), he *might* actually go for this...
Reposted by Jonathan Terluk
Today's action is the single largest mass-illegalization event in US history.
350,000 people woke up this morning with legal status, living and working here with official permission. They'll go to bed as undocumented immigrants facing deportation.
350,000 people woke up this morning with legal status, living and working here with official permission. They'll go to bed as undocumented immigrants facing deportation.
BREAKING: SCOTUS allows DHS to reinstate Sec. Kristi Noem's order ending Temporary Protected Status for many Venezuelans, but notes the decision does not address challenges to actions "purport[ing] to invalidate" related legal status, work authorization documents, etc., previously granted under TPS.
May 19, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Today's action is the single largest mass-illegalization event in US history.
350,000 people woke up this morning with legal status, living and working here with official permission. They'll go to bed as undocumented immigrants facing deportation.
350,000 people woke up this morning with legal status, living and working here with official permission. They'll go to bed as undocumented immigrants facing deportation.
Reposted by Jonathan Terluk
