Jac Larner
@jaclarner.bsky.social
Politics Lecturer Cardiff University & Fellow Edinburgh University.
Political Psychology 🧠 & Public Opinion.
https://jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/
Political Psychology 🧠 & Public Opinion.
https://jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/
Pinned
Jac Larner
@jaclarner.bsky.social
· May 7
Senedd Election Simulator
Senedd Election Simulator - Visualize Welsh election results
jaclarner.github.io
Over last year I've been building a Senedd Election Simulator tool. It gives a useful (I hope!) visual explainer of how the new election system turns votes into seats.
🧵 on some of what it can do below:
jaclarner.github.io/senedd_ethol...
🧵 on some of what it can do below:
jaclarner.github.io/senedd_ethol...
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
November 11, 2025 at 9:00 AM
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
Reposted by Jac Larner
Almost a decade on, Wales' fiscal reforms deliver nearly £1 Billion windfall but fall short on empowering the Senedd
Major new report calls for tripling of borrowing powers and full income tax control as Fiscal Framework reforms deliver unprecedented budget boost:👇
www.cardiff.ac.uk/__data/asset...
Major new report calls for tripling of borrowing powers and full income tax control as Fiscal Framework reforms deliver unprecedented budget boost:👇
www.cardiff.ac.uk/__data/asset...
www.cardiff.ac.uk
November 6, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Almost a decade on, Wales' fiscal reforms deliver nearly £1 Billion windfall but fall short on empowering the Senedd
Major new report calls for tripling of borrowing powers and full income tax control as Fiscal Framework reforms deliver unprecedented budget boost:👇
www.cardiff.ac.uk/__data/asset...
Major new report calls for tripling of borrowing powers and full income tax control as Fiscal Framework reforms deliver unprecedented budget boost:👇
www.cardiff.ac.uk/__data/asset...
This is shockingly uninformed about how polling works
Caerphilly: What went wrong for Labour
Mike Hedges AM puts forward his analysis of the recent by-election win by Plaid Cymru. In July 2024 Labour won 27 of the 32 parliamentary seats in Wales and won the general election with a large majority, forming first Labour Government since 2010. Hidden…
Mike Hedges AM puts forward his analysis of the recent by-election win by Plaid Cymru. In July 2024 Labour won 27 of the 32 parliamentary seats in Wales and won the general election with a large majority, forming first Labour Government since 2010. Hidden…
Caerphilly: What went wrong for Labour
Mike Hedges AM puts forward his analysis of the recent by-election win by Plaid Cymru. In July 2024 Labour won 27 of the 32 parliamentary seats in Wales and won the general election with a large majority, forming first Labour Government since 2010. Hidden behind that result was a decline in turnout of 9% and a reduced percentage of the vote, down to 37% from 40.9%, with the popular vote reducing from to 487,636 from 632,035.
labourhub.org.uk
October 29, 2025 at 10:30 AM
This is shockingly uninformed about how polling works
Two unpopular governments at both ends of the M4 🇬🇧🏴
September 17, 2025 at 11:54 AM
Two unpopular governments at both ends of the M4 🇬🇧🏴
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
September 16, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
Reposted by Jac Larner
Ahead of the expected proscription of Palestine Action - the first time a protest group has been legally redefined as terrorist - I went through the Hansard of the 2000 Act they're being banned under. Turns out MPs were assured the law wouldn't be applied this way. Thread 🧵🔽
July 5, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Ahead of the expected proscription of Palestine Action - the first time a protest group has been legally redefined as terrorist - I went through the Hansard of the 2000 Act they're being banned under. Turns out MPs were assured the law wouldn't be applied this way. Thread 🧵🔽
Does anybody have experience of recontacting Prolific participants after a study to measure attitude change over time? Struggling to find information on feasibility of this
July 3, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Does anybody have experience of recontacting Prolific participants after a study to measure attitude change over time? Struggling to find information on feasibility of this
For the first time all devolved national elections in the UK will use different electoral systems
Cool site below by @eoghanly.bsky.social allows you to see how they all work turning votes into seats 👇
Cool site below by @eoghanly.bsky.social allows you to see how they all work turning votes into seats 👇
Our postdoc @eoghanly.bsky.social has co-developed
@devolvedelections.bsky.social, a seat projection tool for devolved elections 🤓🧮
You can select from some preset scenarios or plug in your own vote share numbers to generate precise estimates.
More info ⬇️
scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/05/22/a...
@devolvedelections.bsky.social, a seat projection tool for devolved elections 🤓🧮
You can select from some preset scenarios or plug in your own vote share numbers to generate precise estimates.
More info ⬇️
scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/05/22/a...
May 22, 2025 at 9:39 AM
For the first time all devolved national elections in the UK will use different electoral systems
Cool site below by @eoghanly.bsky.social allows you to see how they all work turning votes into seats 👇
Cool site below by @eoghanly.bsky.social allows you to see how they all work turning votes into seats 👇
Reposted by Jac Larner
Our nowcast projection for the NI Assembly ‘27:
SF — 28 Seats
DUP — 21 Seats
AP — 16 Seats
UUP — 9 Seats
SDLP — 9 Seats
TUV — 7 Seats
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social & devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/
SF — 28 Seats
DUP — 21 Seats
AP — 16 Seats
UUP — 9 Seats
SDLP — 9 Seats
TUV — 7 Seats
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social & devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, visual, and up-to-date!
devolvedelections.co.uk
May 9, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Our nowcast projection for the NI Assembly ‘27:
SF — 28 Seats
DUP — 21 Seats
AP — 16 Seats
UUP — 9 Seats
SDLP — 9 Seats
TUV — 7 Seats
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social & devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/
SF — 28 Seats
DUP — 21 Seats
AP — 16 Seats
UUP — 9 Seats
SDLP — 9 Seats
TUV — 7 Seats
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social & devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/
Reposted by Jac Larner
Seen the headlines in today's Scottish papers? Join
@scotvoting.bsky.social team TONIGHT 6pm @uofglasgow.bsky.social for an analysis of the the state Scottish electoral politics One Year Out from the 2026 Holyrood elections. Boyd Orr Bldg in-person and on-line
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...
@scotvoting.bsky.social team TONIGHT 6pm @uofglasgow.bsky.social for an analysis of the the state Scottish electoral politics One Year Out from the 2026 Holyrood elections. Boyd Orr Bldg in-person and on-line
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...
One Year Out: The outlook for the 2026 Holyrood election
Join us on Thursday 8 May for this Stevenson Lecture with the Scottish Election Study Team.
www.eventbrite.co.uk
May 8, 2025 at 7:54 AM
Seen the headlines in today's Scottish papers? Join
@scotvoting.bsky.social team TONIGHT 6pm @uofglasgow.bsky.social for an analysis of the the state Scottish electoral politics One Year Out from the 2026 Holyrood elections. Boyd Orr Bldg in-person and on-line
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...
@scotvoting.bsky.social team TONIGHT 6pm @uofglasgow.bsky.social for an analysis of the the state Scottish electoral politics One Year Out from the 2026 Holyrood elections. Boyd Orr Bldg in-person and on-line
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...
Over last year I've been building a Senedd Election Simulator tool. It gives a useful (I hope!) visual explainer of how the new election system turns votes into seats.
🧵 on some of what it can do below:
jaclarner.github.io/senedd_ethol...
🧵 on some of what it can do below:
jaclarner.github.io/senedd_ethol...
Senedd Election Simulator
Senedd Election Simulator - Visualize Welsh election results
jaclarner.github.io
May 7, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Over last year I've been building a Senedd Election Simulator tool. It gives a useful (I hope!) visual explainer of how the new election system turns votes into seats.
🧵 on some of what it can do below:
jaclarner.github.io/senedd_ethol...
🧵 on some of what it can do below:
jaclarner.github.io/senedd_ethol...
New @itvcymruwales.bsky.social poll shows substantial shift in Welsh political landscape. Plaid Cymru leads with 30%, Reform UK at 25%, Labour at 18% - their lowest since devolution- & Conservatives on 13% - one of their poorest Welsh polling performances in 2 decades. 🧵
www.itv.com/news/wales/2...
www.itv.com/news/wales/2...
www.itv.com
May 6, 2025 at 4:57 PM
New @itvcymruwales.bsky.social poll shows substantial shift in Welsh political landscape. Plaid Cymru leads with 30%, Reform UK at 25%, Labour at 18% - their lowest since devolution- & Conservatives on 13% - one of their poorest Welsh polling performances in 2 decades. 🧵
www.itv.com/news/wales/2...
www.itv.com/news/wales/2...
Reposted by Jac Larner
The @scotvoting.bsky.social Annual Lecture, 'The Unstable Vote' by @profjanegreen.bsky.social is being held in Edinburgh on Monday 12th May!
Register below 👇
Register below 👇
This year's Scottish Election Study Annual Lecture, delivered by our outstanding colleague and @britishelectionstudy.com Co-Director @profjanegreen.bsky.social, will take place a week on Monday in Edinburgh! 👩🏼🏫
Details and sign up below 🔽
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/scottish-e...
Details and sign up below 🔽
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/scottish-e...
Scottish Election Study annual lecture 2025
We welcome Professor Jane Green to give the annual lecture for the Scottish Election Study
www.eventbrite.co.uk
May 2, 2025 at 9:23 AM
The @scotvoting.bsky.social Annual Lecture, 'The Unstable Vote' by @profjanegreen.bsky.social is being held in Edinburgh on Monday 12th May!
Register below 👇
Register below 👇
Reposted by Jac Larner
💻 NEW DATA
The Scottish political landscape has evolved greatly in recent months and a lot has been said about support for
@reformukscotland.bsky.social with little available analysis.
@frasmcm.bsky.social and @ailsahenderson.bsky.social took a look at the party's support on our blog t.ly/PjCxX
The Scottish political landscape has evolved greatly in recent months and a lot has been said about support for
@reformukscotland.bsky.social with little available analysis.
@frasmcm.bsky.social and @ailsahenderson.bsky.social took a look at the party's support on our blog t.ly/PjCxX
Is it the Scunner Factor? Reform UK Support in Scotland
Two big stories look set to define the Scottish Parliament election in May 2026. The first is whether the SNP can do well enough following a drubbing at the 2024 general election to remain in power fo...
t.ly
March 10, 2025 at 4:30 PM
💻 NEW DATA
The Scottish political landscape has evolved greatly in recent months and a lot has been said about support for
@reformukscotland.bsky.social with little available analysis.
@frasmcm.bsky.social and @ailsahenderson.bsky.social took a look at the party's support on our blog t.ly/PjCxX
The Scottish political landscape has evolved greatly in recent months and a lot has been said about support for
@reformukscotland.bsky.social with little available analysis.
@frasmcm.bsky.social and @ailsahenderson.bsky.social took a look at the party's support on our blog t.ly/PjCxX
Reposted by Jac Larner
@elizabethjevans.bsky.social and I had the opportunity to talk to @alanrenwick.bsky.social about our research and our book Disability and Political Representation on the UCL Uncovering Politics Podcast. Thanks for hosting us!
🎙️ UCL Uncovering Politics 🎙️
S14 E6: Disability Representation in Politics. Why are there so few disabled politicians? - with @elizabethjevans.bsky.social @unisouthampton.bsky.social and @stefaniereher.bsky.social @unistrathclyde.bsky.social -
ucl-uncovering-politics.simplecast.com/episodes/dis...
S14 E6: Disability Representation in Politics. Why are there so few disabled politicians? - with @elizabethjevans.bsky.social @unisouthampton.bsky.social and @stefaniereher.bsky.social @unistrathclyde.bsky.social -
ucl-uncovering-politics.simplecast.com/episodes/dis...
Disability Representation in Politics | UCL Uncovering Politics
This week we’re looking at the representation of disabled people in politics. Why are there so few disabled politicians? What impact does that have? And what can be done to level the playing field?
ucl-uncovering-politics.simplecast.com
March 2, 2025 at 11:43 AM
@elizabethjevans.bsky.social and I had the opportunity to talk to @alanrenwick.bsky.social about our research and our book Disability and Political Representation on the UCL Uncovering Politics Podcast. Thanks for hosting us!
New fun pub - The Authentic A**hole (particularly proud of getting title accepted)
✅ Politicians viewed as authentic when they stick to their positions despite pressure
✅ True even when voters disagree with those positions
✅ Authenticity translates to electoral advantage
tinyurl.com/25us7y7z
✅ Politicians viewed as authentic when they stick to their positions despite pressure
✅ True even when voters disagree with those positions
✅ Authenticity translates to electoral advantage
tinyurl.com/25us7y7z
February 26, 2025 at 2:24 PM
New fun pub - The Authentic A**hole (particularly proud of getting title accepted)
✅ Politicians viewed as authentic when they stick to their positions despite pressure
✅ True even when voters disagree with those positions
✅ Authenticity translates to electoral advantage
tinyurl.com/25us7y7z
✅ Politicians viewed as authentic when they stick to their positions despite pressure
✅ True even when voters disagree with those positions
✅ Authenticity translates to electoral advantage
tinyurl.com/25us7y7z
Reposted by Jac Larner
Two Weeks In The Death Spiral Of Cardiff University, by an anonymous academic.
This is truly shocking read.
The Cardiff executive board should hang their heads in shame.
voice.cymru/two-weeks-in...
This is truly shocking read.
The Cardiff executive board should hang their heads in shame.
voice.cymru/two-weeks-in...
Two Weeks In The Death Spiral Of Cardiff University -
Reading Time: 4 minutesBy an anonymous academic. Cover image by Adwitiya Pal On the second day of classes…
voice.cymru
February 21, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Two Weeks In The Death Spiral Of Cardiff University, by an anonymous academic.
This is truly shocking read.
The Cardiff executive board should hang their heads in shame.
voice.cymru/two-weeks-in...
This is truly shocking read.
The Cardiff executive board should hang their heads in shame.
voice.cymru/two-weeks-in...
Sut mae siarad Cymraeg yn effeithio ar eich safbwyntiau gwleidyddol?
How does speaking Welsh affect your political views?
Insights from Welsh Election Study below! 👇
www.bbc.co.uk/cymrufyw/ert...
How does speaking Welsh affect your political views?
Insights from Welsh Election Study below! 👇
www.bbc.co.uk/cymrufyw/ert...
Sut mae siarad Cymraeg yn effeithio ar eich safbwynt gwleidyddol?
Dr Jac Larner sy'n trafod os ydy siaradwyr Cymraeg mwy tebygol o fod yn asgell chwith, yn weriniaethwyr ac yn genedlaetholwyr?
www.bbc.co.uk
February 21, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Sut mae siarad Cymraeg yn effeithio ar eich safbwyntiau gwleidyddol?
How does speaking Welsh affect your political views?
Insights from Welsh Election Study below! 👇
www.bbc.co.uk/cymrufyw/ert...
How does speaking Welsh affect your political views?
Insights from Welsh Election Study below! 👇
www.bbc.co.uk/cymrufyw/ert...
Reposted by Jac Larner
I have a new article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social 🎉
It uses conjoint experiment in the UK to test how important the culture war (statues, LGBT+ representation in pop culture, DEI, transwomen athletes, curriculum diversity, and university free speech) is to voters
Link👇 & results 🧵
It uses conjoint experiment in the UK to test how important the culture war (statues, LGBT+ representation in pop culture, DEI, transwomen athletes, curriculum diversity, and university free speech) is to voters
Link👇 & results 🧵
February 3, 2025 at 10:03 AM
I have a new article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social 🎉
It uses conjoint experiment in the UK to test how important the culture war (statues, LGBT+ representation in pop culture, DEI, transwomen athletes, curriculum diversity, and university free speech) is to voters
Link👇 & results 🧵
It uses conjoint experiment in the UK to test how important the culture war (statues, LGBT+ representation in pop culture, DEI, transwomen athletes, curriculum diversity, and university free speech) is to voters
Link👇 & results 🧵
Peak example of utter absurdity of university management speak.
Using language of ‘future generations’, ‘co-creation’ and ‘academic synergies’ in a ‘slide deck’ announcing 400 academic job losses at our institution 👌
Using language of ‘future generations’, ‘co-creation’ and ‘academic synergies’ in a ‘slide deck’ announcing 400 academic job losses at our institution 👌
January 29, 2025 at 8:35 AM
Peak example of utter absurdity of university management speak.
Using language of ‘future generations’, ‘co-creation’ and ‘academic synergies’ in a ‘slide deck’ announcing 400 academic job losses at our institution 👌
Using language of ‘future generations’, ‘co-creation’ and ‘academic synergies’ in a ‘slide deck’ announcing 400 academic job losses at our institution 👌
Took me 5 minutes to realise why this is wrong
thinking of calling this "The Illusion Illusion"
(more examples below)
(more examples below)
December 1, 2024 at 6:33 PM
Took me 5 minutes to realise why this is wrong
Reposted by Jac Larner
This is very sad.
An outstanding university that gave me a lot and means a lot to the city.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
An outstanding university that gave me a lot and means a lot to the city.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
University of Essex to cut 200 jobs amid £29m shortfall
The University of Essex says it faces a
www.bbc.co.uk
November 28, 2024 at 8:50 PM
This is very sad.
An outstanding university that gave me a lot and means a lot to the city.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
An outstanding university that gave me a lot and means a lot to the city.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Jac Larner
🚨 NEW PUBLICATION 🚨
"Does disability affect support for political parties?"
Just published in Electoral Studies, co-authored with Melanie Jones.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
🧵 👇
"Does disability affect support for political parties?"
Just published in Electoral Studies, co-authored with Melanie Jones.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
🧵 👇
November 25, 2024 at 11:46 AM
🚨 NEW PUBLICATION 🚨
"Does disability affect support for political parties?"
Just published in Electoral Studies, co-authored with Melanie Jones.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
🧵 👇
"Does disability affect support for political parties?"
Just published in Electoral Studies, co-authored with Melanie Jones.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
🧵 👇
Reposted by Jac Larner
Rydym yn dathlu 125 o ddysgu Gwleidyddiaeth ym Mhrifysgol Caerdydd. Dyma bapur arholiad cynnar o 1904…
Mae cwestiwn 9 yn *anfarwol*!
——
We’re celebrating 125 years of teaching Politics at Cardiff Uni. Here’s an early exam paper from 1904…
You’re going to absolutely *love* question 9!
Mae cwestiwn 9 yn *anfarwol*!
——
We’re celebrating 125 years of teaching Politics at Cardiff Uni. Here’s an early exam paper from 1904…
You’re going to absolutely *love* question 9!
November 21, 2024 at 5:09 PM
Rydym yn dathlu 125 o ddysgu Gwleidyddiaeth ym Mhrifysgol Caerdydd. Dyma bapur arholiad cynnar o 1904…
Mae cwestiwn 9 yn *anfarwol*!
——
We’re celebrating 125 years of teaching Politics at Cardiff Uni. Here’s an early exam paper from 1904…
You’re going to absolutely *love* question 9!
Mae cwestiwn 9 yn *anfarwol*!
——
We’re celebrating 125 years of teaching Politics at Cardiff Uni. Here’s an early exam paper from 1904…
You’re going to absolutely *love* question 9!
Reposted by Jac Larner
🏴UK ELECTION 2024 BRIEFING VIDEO 📼
The video of the Wales Election Study briefing on the 2024 UK General Election is now available on the @cardiffuni.bsky.social YouTube Channel!
@jaclarner.bsky.social and @richardwynjones.bsky.social present new data and analysis from Wales 👇🏴
youtu.be/7CMXfpiWfso
The video of the Wales Election Study briefing on the 2024 UK General Election is now available on the @cardiffuni.bsky.social YouTube Channel!
@jaclarner.bsky.social and @richardwynjones.bsky.social present new data and analysis from Wales 👇🏴
youtu.be/7CMXfpiWfso
The 2024 UK General Election and Wales - Etholiad Cyffredinol y DU 2024 a Chymru
YouTube video by Cardiff University
youtu.be
November 18, 2024 at 10:11 AM
🏴UK ELECTION 2024 BRIEFING VIDEO 📼
The video of the Wales Election Study briefing on the 2024 UK General Election is now available on the @cardiffuni.bsky.social YouTube Channel!
@jaclarner.bsky.social and @richardwynjones.bsky.social present new data and analysis from Wales 👇🏴
youtu.be/7CMXfpiWfso
The video of the Wales Election Study briefing on the 2024 UK General Election is now available on the @cardiffuni.bsky.social YouTube Channel!
@jaclarner.bsky.social and @richardwynjones.bsky.social present new data and analysis from Wales 👇🏴
youtu.be/7CMXfpiWfso