Geoffrey Skelley
@geoffreyskelley.com
Decision Desk HQ's Chief Election Analyst. Alum of @FiveThirtyEight @Center4Politics. VA native now in VT. @UVA @JMU alum
https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/
https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
DDHQ's newsletter explores Virginia & New Jersey's elections in 10 charts, maps & tables. In both, Democrats won double-digit victories for governor, took/kept control of state government, and won their largest state legislative majorities in recent times. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/virginia-a...
Virginia and New Jersey's elections in 10 charts
A medley of maps, charts, and tables to explore the 2025 election results in Virginia and New Jersey
zurl.co
November 10, 2025 at 6:15 PM
DDHQ's newsletter explores Virginia & New Jersey's elections in 10 charts, maps & tables. In both, Democrats won double-digit victories for governor, took/kept control of state government, and won their largest state legislative majorities in recent times. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/virginia-a...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
The 2025 election is in the books! In our post-election podcast, the DDHQ team offers its first reactions to the results, including Zohran Mamdani's win in New York, which was driven by unusually large turnout among younger voters. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/2025-elect...
November 5, 2025 at 10:58 PM
The 2025 election is in the books! In our post-election podcast, the DDHQ team offers its first reactions to the results, including Zohran Mamdani's win in New York, which was driven by unusually large turnout among younger voters. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/2025-elect...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
31 states. 20,000+ elections. 2025 may be an "off year" election, but there is A LOT being decided by voters tomorrow. DDHQ's election preview extravaganza dives into the most notable contests across the country.
Election Preview Extravaganza 🗳️
Let's take a look at what's on the ballot this Tuesday!
decisiondeskhq.substack.com
November 3, 2025 at 6:07 PM
31 states. 20,000+ elections. 2025 may be an "off year" election, but there is A LOT being decided by voters tomorrow. DDHQ's election preview extravaganza dives into the most notable contests across the country.
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
The DDHQ Podcast talked #NYCMayor with @michaellangenyc.bsky.social. With Mamdani holding a double-digit lead over Cuomo, the question for Election Day may not so much be who wins or loses, but whether Mamdani can break 50% & win something like a mandate. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/new-york-c...
October 31, 2025 at 12:03 AM
The DDHQ Podcast talked #NYCMayor with @michaellangenyc.bsky.social. With Mamdani holding a double-digit lead over Cuomo, the question for Election Day may not so much be who wins or loses, but whether Mamdani can break 50% & win something like a mandate. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/new-york-c...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
A fantastic conversation between @geoffreyskelley.com and the GOAT Steve Kornacki on New Jersey's gubernatorial race. www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CoB...
Decision Desk HQ Podcast Ep. 3: Jumping into Jersey with Steve Kornacki
YouTube video by Decision Desk HQ
www.youtube.com
October 30, 2025 at 8:41 PM
A fantastic conversation between @geoffreyskelley.com and the GOAT Steve Kornacki on New Jersey's gubernatorial race. www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CoB...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
In our weekly Substack newsletter, @geoffreyskelley.com
digs into the sequence of events necessary for Virginia Democrats to redistrict their state's congressional map in time for the 2026 election. It's not impossible, but there are MANY steps. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/virginia-r...
digs into the sequence of events necessary for Virginia Democrats to redistrict their state's congressional map in time for the 2026 election. It's not impossible, but there are MANY steps. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/virginia-r...
Redistricting, uh, finds a way
Virginia Democrats conceive a challenging — but not impossible — plan to redistrict the state's congressional map
decisiondeskhq.substack.com
October 27, 2025 at 7:18 PM
In our weekly Substack newsletter, @geoffreyskelley.com
digs into the sequence of events necessary for Virginia Democrats to redistrict their state's congressional map in time for the 2026 election. It's not impossible, but there are MANY steps. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/virginia-r...
digs into the sequence of events necessary for Virginia Democrats to redistrict their state's congressional map in time for the 2026 election. It's not impossible, but there are MANY steps. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/virginia-r...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
This week's DDHQ Podcast features a close look at #NJGov with the great Steve Kornacki. Steve joined
@geoffreyskelley.com for a map-rich discussion of how recent trends could influence the New Jersey race between Mikie Sherrill (D) & Jack Ciattarelli (R).
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/new-jersey...
@geoffreyskelley.com for a map-rich discussion of how recent trends could influence the New Jersey race between Mikie Sherrill (D) & Jack Ciattarelli (R).
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/new-jersey...
October 23, 2025 at 7:58 PM
This week's DDHQ Podcast features a close look at #NJGov with the great Steve Kornacki. Steve joined
@geoffreyskelley.com for a map-rich discussion of how recent trends could influence the New Jersey race between Mikie Sherrill (D) & Jack Ciattarelli (R).
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/new-jersey...
@geoffreyskelley.com for a map-rich discussion of how recent trends could influence the New Jersey race between Mikie Sherrill (D) & Jack Ciattarelli (R).
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/new-jersey...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
We're about 2 weeks out from Election Day, so @geoffreyskelley.com has a preview of #NJGov in our newsletter. Mikie Sherrill (D) is favored but Jack Ciattarelli (R) has a path if he can meld his strengths with Trump's 2024 improvement in the Garden State. zurl.co/EkYue
October 20, 2025 at 8:02 PM
We're about 2 weeks out from Election Day, so @geoffreyskelley.com has a preview of #NJGov in our newsletter. Mikie Sherrill (D) is favored but Jack Ciattarelli (R) has a path if he can meld his strengths with Trump's 2024 improvement in the Garden State. zurl.co/EkYue
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
In DDHQ's latest pod, @geoffreyskelley.com & @kkondik.bsky.social talked about Virginia's 2025 races. In the high-profile attorney general's race, incumbent Jason Miyares (R) has directly pitched Spanberger #vagov voters to not back Jay Jones (D) after his texting scandal. zurl.co/wr9oo
October 17, 2025 at 2:03 PM
In DDHQ's latest pod, @geoffreyskelley.com & @kkondik.bsky.social talked about Virginia's 2025 races. In the high-profile attorney general's race, incumbent Jason Miyares (R) has directly pitched Spanberger #vagov voters to not back Jay Jones (D) after his texting scandal. zurl.co/wr9oo
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
Today on the GD POLITICS pod:
🐀 What if every state gerrymandered to the max?
🗽 New York City mayoral race updates
😠 Voters' mood in 2025
w/ @geoffreyskelley.com
www.gdpolitics.com/p/what-if-ev...
🐀 What if every state gerrymandered to the max?
🗽 New York City mayoral race updates
😠 Voters' mood in 2025
w/ @geoffreyskelley.com
www.gdpolitics.com/p/what-if-ev...
What If Every State Gerrymandered To The Max?
Plus an update on the New York City mayoral race and voters' mood in 2025.
www.gdpolitics.com
August 25, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Today on the GD POLITICS pod:
🐀 What if every state gerrymandered to the max?
🗽 New York City mayoral race updates
😠 Voters' mood in 2025
w/ @geoffreyskelley.com
www.gdpolitics.com/p/what-if-ev...
🐀 What if every state gerrymandered to the max?
🗽 New York City mayoral race updates
😠 Voters' mood in 2025
w/ @geoffreyskelley.com
www.gdpolitics.com/p/what-if-ev...
Our long, national nightmare is over. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections is back online. uselectionatlas.org
Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
Detailed national results of US Presidential Elections from 1789 through 2012, US Senate and Gubernatorial Elections since 1990. Site includes election data, county maps and state maps, charts. State...
uselectionatlas.org
August 22, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Our long, national nightmare is over. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections is back online. uselectionatlas.org
New TX map has 8 safe D seats. The other five Dem seats all become red-leaning:
-Gonzalez & Cuellar have Trump +10 seats to defend in South Texas
-Johnson in Trump +18 seat, could run vs Veasey (D) in majority-Latino TX-33
-Dem vs Dem primaries possible in new TX-37 & TX-18
-Gonzalez & Cuellar have Trump +10 seats to defend in South Texas
-Johnson in Trump +18 seat, could run vs Veasey (D) in majority-Latino TX-33
-Dem vs Dem primaries possible in new TX-37 & TX-18
July 30, 2025 at 6:59 PM
New TX map has 8 safe D seats. The other five Dem seats all become red-leaning:
-Gonzalez & Cuellar have Trump +10 seats to defend in South Texas
-Johnson in Trump +18 seat, could run vs Veasey (D) in majority-Latino TX-33
-Dem vs Dem primaries possible in new TX-37 & TX-18
-Gonzalez & Cuellar have Trump +10 seats to defend in South Texas
-Johnson in Trump +18 seat, could run vs Veasey (D) in majority-Latino TX-33
-Dem vs Dem primaries possible in new TX-37 & TX-18
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
New Federal Fallout pod this morning featuring @geoffreyskelley.com
Geoff previously was with Crystal Ball and 538
He goes over Virginia and New Jersey this year
And looks ahead to redistricting and its potential impact on midterms
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Geoff previously was with Crystal Ball and 538
He goes over Virginia and New Jersey this year
And looks ahead to redistricting and its potential impact on midterms
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Episode 22: Geoff Skelley Interview on 2025 and the Midterms
Podcast Episode · Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections · 07/26/2025 · 31m
podcasts.apple.com
July 26, 2025 at 1:12 PM
New Federal Fallout pod this morning featuring @geoffreyskelley.com
Geoff previously was with Crystal Ball and 538
He goes over Virginia and New Jersey this year
And looks ahead to redistricting and its potential impact on midterms
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Geoff previously was with Crystal Ball and 538
He goes over Virginia and New Jersey this year
And looks ahead to redistricting and its potential impact on midterms
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Very excited to see which current “no” vote among Senate Rs flips to ensure passage of the BBB on Monday. Highly skeptical we’re gonna see another failure like the Obamacare skinny repeal in 2017.
June 28, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Very excited to see which current “no” vote among Senate Rs flips to ensure passage of the BBB on Monday. Highly skeptical we’re gonna see another failure like the Obamacare skinny repeal in 2017.
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
This piece from @geoffreyskelley.com recounting Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran's come from behind GOP primary runoff victory 11 years ago today sure brings back memories. Cochran appealed to the state's large and heavily Democratic Black electorate to vote in a Republican contest, and it worked.
On This Election Day: June 24
June 24, 2014: Republican Sen. Thad Cochran barely survives a Tea Party challenge from the right to win renomination in a primary runoff
nationalbeargarden.substack.com
June 24, 2025 at 10:15 PM
This piece from @geoffreyskelley.com recounting Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran's come from behind GOP primary runoff victory 11 years ago today sure brings back memories. Cochran appealed to the state's large and heavily Democratic Black electorate to vote in a Republican contest, and it worked.
Using AP estimates on what's outstanding, there might be ~20k votes left in Richmond City, more than any other locality. Just how much better — or not — Stoney does among the outstanding votes in the city he leads could prove decisive in the LG primary result. #VAprimary
June 18, 2025 at 1:05 AM
Using AP estimates on what's outstanding, there might be ~20k votes left in Richmond City, more than any other locality. Just how much better — or not — Stoney does among the outstanding votes in the city he leads could prove decisive in the LG primary result. #VAprimary
Virginia’s primary is on Tuesday. Looking ahead to November, 2025 could mark the 5th straight state election in which the same party swept all three statewide offices — governor, lieutenant governor & attorney general. open.substack.com/pub/national...
Could Virginia see one party sweep all three state offices this November?
Virginia's primary is happening on Tuesday. The same party has won the general election for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general in four straight elections. It could happen again.
open.substack.com
June 16, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Virginia’s primary is on Tuesday. Looking ahead to November, 2025 could mark the 5th straight state election in which the same party swept all three statewide offices — governor, lieutenant governor & attorney general. open.substack.com/pub/national...
The casual irrational confidence that you could move to South Carolina in 2025 and mount a strong challenge against Lindsey Graham in the 2026 #SCSen race. Laughable. www.politico.com/news/2025/06...
Former Rep. Joe Walsh is considering a bid against GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham
The former Tea Party congressman has become a registered Democrat.
www.politico.com
June 11, 2025 at 4:03 PM
The casual irrational confidence that you could move to South Carolina in 2025 and mount a strong challenge against Lindsey Graham in the 2026 #SCSen race. Laughable. www.politico.com/news/2025/06...
Waiting on #NJGov results and looking for something to read? Check out my look at how the Dem primary ended up so crowded and what that might say about the changing politics of the Garden State. nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/new-jersey...
New Jersey Democrats have an unusually crowded primary for governor
Six candidates might win at least 10% in the Democratic primary — which would be a first in the Garden State's history
nationalbeargarden.substack.com
June 10, 2025 at 9:23 PM
Waiting on #NJGov results and looking for something to read? Check out my look at how the Dem primary ended up so crowded and what that might say about the changing politics of the Garden State. nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/new-jersey...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
Today is primary election day in New Jersey! @geoffreyskelley.com has a good preview: nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/new-jersey...
June 10, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Today is primary election day in New Jersey! @geoffreyskelley.com has a good preview: nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/new-jersey...
Something to watch in New Jersey's primary: 6 Dems might win 10%+ in the gov primary, which would be a 1st in state history. Such a crowded race may result from weakened local party influence & abolishment of the “county line” on election ballots. nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/new-jersey...
New Jersey Democrats have an unusually crowded primary for governor
Six candidates might win at least 10% in the Democratic primary — which would be a first in the Garden State's history
nationalbeargarden.substack.com
June 9, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Something to watch in New Jersey's primary: 6 Dems might win 10%+ in the gov primary, which would be a 1st in state history. Such a crowded race may result from weakened local party influence & abolishment of the “county line” on election ballots. nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/new-jersey...
Been playing with my kid, anyone got a tick-tock with the exact order of X/TruthSocial posts/public statements and reactions by Musk and Trump?
June 5, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Been playing with my kid, anyone got a tick-tock with the exact order of X/TruthSocial posts/public statements and reactions by Musk and Trump?
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
This is reasonable. And I thought it for many years. But Jennifer Allen's work on vaccine misinformation changed my mind. Headlines often misinform people because 1) most people don't click through and read stories, 2) misleading headlines don't get misinformation flags from social media companies.
June 3, 2025 at 8:27 PM
This is reasonable. And I thought it for many years. But Jennifer Allen's work on vaccine misinformation changed my mind. Headlines often misinform people because 1) most people don't click through and read stories, 2) misleading headlines don't get misinformation flags from social media companies.
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
If JD Scholten beats the odds and #IAsen Joni Ernst, it’ll be a windfall for Democrats in the Congressional Baseball Game. He’s spent the last two years pitching in Dutch professional baseball and for the indy team the Sioux City Explorers.
June 2, 2025 at 7:56 PM
If JD Scholten beats the odds and #IAsen Joni Ernst, it’ll be a windfall for Democrats in the Congressional Baseball Game. He’s spent the last two years pitching in Dutch professional baseball and for the indy team the Sioux City Explorers.
#IASen is definitely a stretch for Dems in 2026, but Ernst just decided to pour gasoline on the fire she started with her bungled statement at a townhall. That’s a decision that suggests she and/or her staff believe she’s safer than she really is.
June 1, 2025 at 1:31 AM
#IASen is definitely a stretch for Dems in 2026, but Ernst just decided to pour gasoline on the fire she started with her bungled statement at a townhall. That’s a decision that suggests she and/or her staff believe she’s safer than she really is.