Geoffrey Skelley
@geoffreyskelley.com
Decision Desk HQ's Chief Election Analyst. Previous stops at FiveThirtyEight, UVA Center for Politics. VA native now in VT. UVA & JMU alum.
https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/
https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
Sen. Susan Collins (R) formally announced that she's running for reelection in #MESen.
She is the only Republican senator from a state carried by Kamala Harris in '24.
Collins easily gives the GOP its best chance of holding onto what is a must-win seat for Democrats in 2026.
She is the only Republican senator from a state carried by Kamala Harris in '24.
Collins easily gives the GOP its best chance of holding onto what is a must-win seat for Democrats in 2026.
February 10, 2026 at 4:21 PM
Sen. Susan Collins (R) formally announced that she's running for reelection in #MESen.
She is the only Republican senator from a state carried by Kamala Harris in '24.
Collins easily gives the GOP its best chance of holding onto what is a must-win seat for Democrats in 2026.
She is the only Republican senator from a state carried by Kamala Harris in '24.
Collins easily gives the GOP its best chance of holding onto what is a must-win seat for Democrats in 2026.
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
Winner of #TX18 runoff tomorrow will further narrow GOP's House majority. After the winner (a Dem) is sworn in, GOP will have 218-214 edge (w/ 3 vacancies).
Granted, another gov shutdown could make it easier for Mike Johnson to delay swearing in the winner, as happened with Adelita Grijalva.
Granted, another gov shutdown could make it easier for Mike Johnson to delay swearing in the winner, as happened with Adelita Grijalva.
January 30, 2026 at 6:39 PM
Winner of #TX18 runoff tomorrow will further narrow GOP's House majority. After the winner (a Dem) is sworn in, GOP will have 218-214 edge (w/ 3 vacancies).
Granted, another gov shutdown could make it easier for Mike Johnson to delay swearing in the winner, as happened with Adelita Grijalva.
Granted, another gov shutdown could make it easier for Mike Johnson to delay swearing in the winner, as happened with Adelita Grijalva.
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
DDHQ Podcast welcomed @gracepanetta.bsky.social to chat about 2026 Senate races with high-profile women candidates.
One is #TXSen, where Dems are split on Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who has given fuel to her "electability" detractors.
Watch/listen here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/senate-wom...
One is #TXSen, where Dems are split on Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who has given fuel to her "electability" detractors.
Watch/listen here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/senate-wom...
January 29, 2026 at 10:58 PM
DDHQ Podcast welcomed @gracepanetta.bsky.social to chat about 2026 Senate races with high-profile women candidates.
One is #TXSen, where Dems are split on Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who has given fuel to her "electability" detractors.
Watch/listen here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/senate-wom...
One is #TXSen, where Dems are split on Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who has given fuel to her "electability" detractors.
Watch/listen here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/senate-wom...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
@geoffreyskelley.com joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to tell us all about his work as the new chief election analyst at @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social! We nerd out about top Senate primaries and the surprising reasons House retirements have spiked. Listen here!
The Twin Cities' fierce response to ICE—at the ballot box
Listen now | And DDHQ's Geoffrey Skelley joins us to nerd out and talk shop
www.the-downballot.com
January 29, 2026 at 7:48 PM
@geoffreyskelley.com joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to tell us all about his work as the new chief election analyst at @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social! We nerd out about top Senate primaries and the surprising reasons House retirements have spiked. Listen here!
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
In this week's DDHQ Polling Memo:
-Trump's approval continues to hover in one of its worst spots in his 2nd term
-Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi leads Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton 36%-16% in the Illinois Dem primary for Senate
Read more here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/illinois-d...
-Trump's approval continues to hover in one of its worst spots in his 2nd term
-Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi leads Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton 36%-16% in the Illinois Dem primary for Senate
Read more here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/illinois-d...
January 28, 2026 at 3:50 PM
In this week's DDHQ Polling Memo:
-Trump's approval continues to hover in one of its worst spots in his 2nd term
-Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi leads Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton 36%-16% in the Illinois Dem primary for Senate
Read more here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/illinois-d...
-Trump's approval continues to hover in one of its worst spots in his 2nd term
-Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi leads Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton 36%-16% in the Illinois Dem primary for Senate
Read more here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/illinois-d...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
Baby, it's cold outside, but things are heating up ♨️ in Louisiana for Bill Cassidy. Trump endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow over Cassidy in the #LASen GOP primary & now the incumbent might be boiled shrimp 🦐 in 2026.
DDHQ's newsletter breaks things down:
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/trump-letl...
DDHQ's newsletter breaks things down:
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/trump-letl...
Is Bill Cassidy boiled shrimp? ⚜️🦐♨️
Rep. Julia Letlow's primary challenge could oust the Louisiana senator and add Cassidy to the pile of discarded Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump in 2021
decisiondeskhq.substack.com
January 26, 2026 at 3:40 PM
Baby, it's cold outside, but things are heating up ♨️ in Louisiana for Bill Cassidy. Trump endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow over Cassidy in the #LASen GOP primary & now the incumbent might be boiled shrimp 🦐 in 2026.
DDHQ's newsletter breaks things down:
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/trump-letl...
DDHQ's newsletter breaks things down:
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/trump-letl...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
DDHQ has a new polling average for South Carolina's GOP primary for governor. The 4 main contenders are all between 10-20%, with Rep. Nancy Mace & state AG Alan Wilson both around 19%.
The race may well depend on Trump's endorsement (if he does).
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/no-clear-f...
The race may well depend on Trump's endorsement (if he does).
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/no-clear-f...
No clear frontrunner in South Carolina
The Palmetto State’s GOP primary for governor has four high-profile contenders, each of whom could make a likely runoff
decisiondeskhq.substack.com
January 21, 2026 at 3:01 PM
DDHQ has a new polling average for South Carolina's GOP primary for governor. The 4 main contenders are all between 10-20%, with Rep. Nancy Mace & state AG Alan Wilson both around 19%.
The race may well depend on Trump's endorsement (if he does).
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/no-clear-f...
The race may well depend on Trump's endorsement (if he does).
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/no-clear-f...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
ICYMI yesterday, this week's DDHQ newsletter covered 10 big elections to watch in the first three months of 2026. One of them is the #GA14 special on March 10 to fill the seat vacated by Marjorie Taylor Greene.
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/10-big-ele...
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/10-big-ele...
10 Big Elections in Q1 of 2026 🗳️🗓️
A look at the significant elections happening during the first three months of 2026
decisiondeskhq.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 8:36 PM
ICYMI yesterday, this week's DDHQ newsletter covered 10 big elections to watch in the first three months of 2026. One of them is the #GA14 special on March 10 to fill the seat vacated by Marjorie Taylor Greene.
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/10-big-ele...
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/10-big-ele...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
In this week's DDHQ newsletter, @geoffreyskelley.com runs through 10 key elections to watch in the first 3 months of 2026. On the list is the March 10 special election for Marjorie Taylor Greene's former seat, Georgia's 14th District. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/10-big-ele...
January 19, 2026 at 5:55 PM
In this week's DDHQ newsletter, @geoffreyskelley.com runs through 10 key elections to watch in the first 3 months of 2026. On the list is the March 10 special election for Marjorie Taylor Greene's former seat, Georgia's 14th District. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/10-big-ele...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
If Klobuchar runs for #MNGov, she'll be the 4th sitting senator to run for governor in 2026 — most in any election from 1914-now.
@geoffreyvs will have more in tomorrow morning's DDHQ newsletter. You can get it in your inbox by signing up for FREE here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome
@geoffreyvs will have more in tomorrow morning's DDHQ newsletter. You can get it in your inbox by signing up for FREE here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome
Decision Desk HQ | Substack
Home to Decision Desk HQ's analysis of U.S. elections and politics, led by The Bellwether newsletter. Click to read Decision Desk HQ, a Substack publication with hundreds of thousands of subscribers.
decisiondeskhq.substack.com
January 11, 2026 at 7:37 PM
If Klobuchar runs for #MNGov, she'll be the 4th sitting senator to run for governor in 2026 — most in any election from 1914-now.
@geoffreyvs will have more in tomorrow morning's DDHQ newsletter. You can get it in your inbox by signing up for FREE here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome
@geoffreyvs will have more in tomorrow morning's DDHQ newsletter. You can get it in your inbox by signing up for FREE here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
Everything is bigger in Texas, including the candidate filing deadline! @geoffreyskelley.com discussed the ins and outs of Texas's big races with @gbirenbaum.bsky.social from @texastribune.org, including what Jasmine Crockett's candidacy means for #TXSen. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/episode-9-...
Episode 9: The 2026 Texas Two-Step, with Gabby Birenbaum from The Texas Tribune
The Lone Star State's candidate filing deadline didn't disappoint for drama, setting the stage for some very exciting nomination contests and general elections in 2026
decisiondeskhq.substack.com
December 11, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Everything is bigger in Texas, including the candidate filing deadline! @geoffreyskelley.com discussed the ins and outs of Texas's big races with @gbirenbaum.bsky.social from @texastribune.org, including what Jasmine Crockett's candidacy means for #TXSen. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/episode-9-...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
In this week's newsletter, a look at candidates who might get accused of "carpetbagging" by running in states or districts that are mostly or totally new to them. This includes at least 4 former or current House members running in 2026, such as Madison Cawthorn & Chris Collins. zurl.co/J8573
December 8, 2025 at 7:29 PM
In this week's newsletter, a look at candidates who might get accused of "carpetbagging" by running in states or districts that are mostly or totally new to them. This includes at least 4 former or current House members running in 2026, such as Madison Cawthorn & Chris Collins. zurl.co/J8573
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
In this week's DDHQ Podcast, @geoffreyskelley.com talked Tennessee with @rubashkin.bsky.social from Inside Elections! They dug into the #TN07 special election result — especially the contest's high turnout — and what it may say about next year's midterms. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/tennessee-...
Episode 8: Talking Tennessee, with Jacob Rubashkin from Inside Elections
Digging into the much-watched special election in Tennessee's 7th District and the broader electoral trends ahead of the 2026 midterms
decisiondeskhq.substack.com
December 4, 2025 at 10:22 PM
In this week's DDHQ Podcast, @geoffreyskelley.com talked Tennessee with @rubashkin.bsky.social from Inside Elections! They dug into the #TN07 special election result — especially the contest's high turnout — and what it may say about next year's midterms. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/tennessee-...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
DDHQ has a big preview of today's #TN07 special election. The GOP favored to win the Trump +22 district, but limited polling says it's close & both parties' super PACs have spent $$$. A Dem upset would rank among biggest recent special election flips. zurl.co/9KZWR
December 2, 2025 at 4:19 PM
DDHQ has a big preview of today's #TN07 special election. The GOP favored to win the Trump +22 district, but limited polling says it's close & both parties' super PACs have spent $$$. A Dem upset would rank among biggest recent special election flips. zurl.co/9KZWR
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
DDHQ has an in-depth preview of the special election for Tennessee's 7th District happening on Tuesday (tomorrow)! The solidly Republican seat looks competitive, so while the GOP is favored to hold onto the seat, a Democratic upset can't be written off. zurl.co/QNK00
December 1, 2025 at 4:35 PM
DDHQ has an in-depth preview of the special election for Tennessee's 7th District happening on Tuesday (tomorrow)! The solidly Republican seat looks competitive, so while the GOP is favored to hold onto the seat, a Democratic upset can't be written off. zurl.co/QNK00
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
The holiday season is here, which means 2026 is close at hand. DDHQ put together a 2026 Primary Primer covering next year's primary election calendar, which stretches from March to September. Every state. Every notable race. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-2026-p...
November 25, 2025 at 2:49 PM
The holiday season is here, which means 2026 is close at hand. DDHQ put together a 2026 Primary Primer covering next year's primary election calendar, which stretches from March to September. Every state. Every notable race. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-2026-p...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
Maps & more maps. In this week's episode of the DDHQ Podcast, @geoffreyskelley.com & guest @baseballot.bsky.social toured the states that have redistricted their congressional maps. A big ? is Texas, where a federal judicial panel just blocked the new map. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/texas-redi...
Episode 7: Redistricting Turbulence in Texas and Elsewhere, with Nathaniel Rakich from Votebeat
An in-depth overview of mid-decade congressional redistricting (so far) and what it could mean for the 2026 midterms
decisiondeskhq.substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Maps & more maps. In this week's episode of the DDHQ Podcast, @geoffreyskelley.com & guest @baseballot.bsky.social toured the states that have redistricted their congressional maps. A big ? is Texas, where a federal judicial panel just blocked the new map. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/texas-redi...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
why polls matter!
Let's talk polling in 2025. Decision Desk HQ's podcast explored why polling is important, what challenges it faces, building polling averages, and what happened in the 2025 polls with @fiftyplusone.news's Mary Radcliffe & @gelliottmorris.com. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/episode-6-...
November 13, 2025 at 10:33 PM
why polls matter!
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
2025 election review in this week's DDHQ newsletter: How Mamdani won NYC, why California's redistricting measure passed so easily & how swingy Georgia voted über blue for Public Service Commission. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/new-york-c...
November 17, 2025 at 5:57 PM
2025 election review in this week's DDHQ newsletter: How Mamdani won NYC, why California's redistricting measure passed so easily & how swingy Georgia voted über blue for Public Service Commission. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/new-york-c...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
Let's talk polling in 2025. Decision Desk HQ's podcast explored why polling is important, what challenges it faces, building polling averages, and what happened in the 2025 polls with @fiftyplusone.news's Mary Radcliffe & @gelliottmorris.com. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/episode-6-...
November 13, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Let's talk polling in 2025. Decision Desk HQ's podcast explored why polling is important, what challenges it faces, building polling averages, and what happened in the 2025 polls with @fiftyplusone.news's Mary Radcliffe & @gelliottmorris.com. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/episode-6-...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
DDHQ's Monday newsletter delved into the results in Virginia and New Jersey with 10 maps, charts & tables. Read it here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/virginia-a...
Virginia and New Jersey's elections in 10 charts
A medley of maps, charts, and tables to explore the 2025 election results in Virginia and New Jersey
decisiondeskhq.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 4:58 PM
DDHQ's Monday newsletter delved into the results in Virginia and New Jersey with 10 maps, charts & tables. Read it here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/virginia-a...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
DDHQ's newsletter explores Virginia & New Jersey's elections in 10 charts, maps & tables. In both, Democrats won double-digit victories for governor, took/kept control of state government, and won their largest state legislative majorities in recent times. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/virginia-a...
Virginia and New Jersey's elections in 10 charts
A medley of maps, charts, and tables to explore the 2025 election results in Virginia and New Jersey
zurl.co
November 10, 2025 at 6:15 PM
DDHQ's newsletter explores Virginia & New Jersey's elections in 10 charts, maps & tables. In both, Democrats won double-digit victories for governor, took/kept control of state government, and won their largest state legislative majorities in recent times. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/virginia-a...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
The 2025 election is in the books! In our post-election podcast, the DDHQ team offers its first reactions to the results, including Zohran Mamdani's win in New York, which was driven by unusually large turnout among younger voters. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/2025-elect...
November 5, 2025 at 10:58 PM
The 2025 election is in the books! In our post-election podcast, the DDHQ team offers its first reactions to the results, including Zohran Mamdani's win in New York, which was driven by unusually large turnout among younger voters. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/2025-elect...
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
31 states. 20,000+ elections. 2025 may be an "off year" election, but there is A LOT being decided by voters tomorrow. DDHQ's election preview extravaganza dives into the most notable contests across the country.
Election Preview Extravaganza 🗳️
Let's take a look at what's on the ballot this Tuesday!
decisiondeskhq.substack.com
November 3, 2025 at 6:07 PM
31 states. 20,000+ elections. 2025 may be an "off year" election, but there is A LOT being decided by voters tomorrow. DDHQ's election preview extravaganza dives into the most notable contests across the country.
Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley
The DDHQ Podcast talked #NYCMayor with @michaellangenyc.bsky.social. With Mamdani holding a double-digit lead over Cuomo, the question for Election Day may not so much be who wins or loses, but whether Mamdani can break 50% & win something like a mandate. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/new-york-c...
October 31, 2025 at 12:03 AM
The DDHQ Podcast talked #NYCMayor with @michaellangenyc.bsky.social. With Mamdani holding a double-digit lead over Cuomo, the question for Election Day may not so much be who wins or loses, but whether Mamdani can break 50% & win something like a mandate. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/new-york-c...