Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
@epimodels.bsky.social
Covid. Epidemiology. Infectious disease dynamics.
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
Australia Admits All Those Animals Made Up theonion.com/austral...
August 5, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Australia Admits All Those Animals Made Up theonion.com/austral...
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
I often get comments like "how can you say Covid is low when there's no testing"... there is testing in hospitals & testing protocols haven't changed really since Apr 2023, so covid admissions are comparable over last yr.
Plus Scottish wasterwater consistent with lowest Covid winter so far. 1/2
Plus Scottish wasterwater consistent with lowest Covid winter so far. 1/2
January 12, 2025 at 12:24 PM
I often get comments like "how can you say Covid is low when there's no testing"... there is testing in hospitals & testing protocols haven't changed really since Apr 2023, so covid admissions are comparable over last yr.
Plus Scottish wasterwater consistent with lowest Covid winter so far. 1/2
Plus Scottish wasterwater consistent with lowest Covid winter so far. 1/2
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
%ED visits for Covid is starting to decline in the first week of Jan.
Only 4 states had (slightly) higher %ED peaks in their December waves than their summer peaks:
🔸️Michigan
🔸️Maine
🔸️New Hampshire
🔸️South Dakota
Most were significantly below. Florida was 90% lower than Aug.
Only 4 states had (slightly) higher %ED peaks in their December waves than their summer peaks:
🔸️Michigan
🔸️Maine
🔸️New Hampshire
🔸️South Dakota
Most were significantly below. Florida was 90% lower than Aug.
January 10, 2025 at 11:49 PM
%ED visits for Covid is starting to decline in the first week of Jan.
Only 4 states had (slightly) higher %ED peaks in their December waves than their summer peaks:
🔸️Michigan
🔸️Maine
🔸️New Hampshire
🔸️South Dakota
Most were significantly below. Florida was 90% lower than Aug.
Only 4 states had (slightly) higher %ED peaks in their December waves than their summer peaks:
🔸️Michigan
🔸️Maine
🔸️New Hampshire
🔸️South Dakota
Most were significantly below. Florida was 90% lower than Aug.
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
Really proud to share our preprint describing early adaptation of H5N1 to US dairy cattle, and showing how these mutations enhance the ability of the virus to infect other mammals, such as pigs and humans.
With @influenzal.bsky.social @vidhid.bsky.social @drclairesmith.bsky.social and many more!
With @influenzal.bsky.social @vidhid.bsky.social @drclairesmith.bsky.social and many more!
Polymerase mutations underlie adaptation of H5N1 influenza virus to dairy cattle and other mammals.
In early 2024, an unprecedented outbreak of H5N1 high pathogenicity avian influenza was detected in dairy cattle in the USA. The epidemic remains uncontrolled, with spillbacks into poultry, wild birds...
www.biorxiv.org
January 7, 2025 at 7:59 AM
Really proud to share our preprint describing early adaptation of H5N1 to US dairy cattle, and showing how these mutations enhance the ability of the virus to infect other mammals, such as pigs and humans.
With @influenzal.bsky.social @vidhid.bsky.social @drclairesmith.bsky.social and many more!
With @influenzal.bsky.social @vidhid.bsky.social @drclairesmith.bsky.social and many more!
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
AFD Blog `WHO DON: Trends of Acute Respiratory Infection, Including Human Metapneumovirus, in the Northern Hemisphere' afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/01/who-...
WHO DON: Trends of Acute Respiratory Infection, Including Human Metapneumovirus, in the Northern Hemisphere
#18,534 For the past week or so the internet, and even the mainstream media, has been speculating over a rumored outbreak of a `mystery vi...
afludiary.blogspot.com
January 7, 2025 at 9:17 PM
AFD Blog `WHO DON: Trends of Acute Respiratory Infection, Including Human Metapneumovirus, in the Northern Hemisphere' afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/01/who-...
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
Headlines are warning of a 'quad-demic' about the hit the NHS, but data show that a 'quad-demic' is v unlikely.
The worry is not that the NHS is about to be hit by unprecedented demand, but that it is unable to cope with normal demand.
I've written about it here
open.substack.com/pub/christin...
The worry is not that the NHS is about to be hit by unprecedented demand, but that it is unable to cope with normal demand.
I've written about it here
open.substack.com/pub/christin...
Is the NHS facing a 'quad-demic' this winter?
No, but it is finding it harder and harder to cope with 'normal' winter pressures. Plus flu might still have a nasty kicker in store this winter.
open.substack.com
December 16, 2024 at 5:43 PM
Headlines are warning of a 'quad-demic' about the hit the NHS, but data show that a 'quad-demic' is v unlikely.
The worry is not that the NHS is about to be hit by unprecedented demand, but that it is unable to cope with normal demand.
I've written about it here
open.substack.com/pub/christin...
The worry is not that the NHS is about to be hit by unprecedented demand, but that it is unable to cope with normal demand.
I've written about it here
open.substack.com/pub/christin...
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
"The issue is not that the NHS is facing an unprecedented winter avalanche of illness - the issue is that the NHS cannot cope with an entirely precedented winter season." Very good substack from @chrischirp.bsky.social
Fantastic piece from @chrischirp.bsky.social outlining the real issues the NHS is facing- challenging the quadremic idea and suggesting pragmatic ways we can PROACTIVELY reduce the impacts and spread of these diseases and help the NHS! open.substack.com/pub/christin...
Is the NHS facing a 'quad-demic' this winter?
No, but it is finding it harder and harder to cope with 'normal' winter pressures. Plus flu might still have a nasty kicker in store this winter.
open.substack.com
December 16, 2024 at 7:03 PM
"The issue is not that the NHS is facing an unprecedented winter avalanche of illness - the issue is that the NHS cannot cope with an entirely precedented winter season." Very good substack from @chrischirp.bsky.social
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
Fantastic piece from @chrischirp.bsky.social outlining the real issues the NHS is facing- challenging the quadremic idea and suggesting pragmatic ways we can PROACTIVELY reduce the impacts and spread of these diseases and help the NHS! open.substack.com/pub/christin...
Is the NHS facing a 'quad-demic' this winter?
No, but it is finding it harder and harder to cope with 'normal' winter pressures. Plus flu might still have a nasty kicker in store this winter.
open.substack.com
December 16, 2024 at 6:16 PM
Fantastic piece from @chrischirp.bsky.social outlining the real issues the NHS is facing- challenging the quadremic idea and suggesting pragmatic ways we can PROACTIVELY reduce the impacts and spread of these diseases and help the NHS! open.substack.com/pub/christin...
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
You are here:
November 30, 2024 at 10:32 PM
You are here:
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
It's interesting to look at the detection data for Whooping cough (also called Pertussis, named after the bacterial cause - 𝘉𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘦𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘢 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘴.
Australian NNDSS data show a 3-5 year space between Pertussis epidemics.
Australian NNDSS data show a 3-5 year space between Pertussis epidemics.
November 26, 2024 at 6:25 AM
It's interesting to look at the detection data for Whooping cough (also called Pertussis, named after the bacterial cause - 𝘉𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘦𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘢 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘴.
Australian NNDSS data show a 3-5 year space between Pertussis epidemics.
Australian NNDSS data show a 3-5 year space between Pertussis epidemics.
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
❄️ Holiday Season Forecast:
🔹The wildest forecast I've ever made was for Dec 2021, predicting multiple millions of daily infections. This one is easily second place. A very muted holiday wave relative to all prior years, due to weak evolution and large summer numbers.
🔹The wildest forecast I've ever made was for Dec 2021, predicting multiple millions of daily infections. This one is easily second place. A very muted holiday wave relative to all prior years, due to weak evolution and large summer numbers.
November 19, 2024 at 11:25 PM
❄️ Holiday Season Forecast:
🔹The wildest forecast I've ever made was for Dec 2021, predicting multiple millions of daily infections. This one is easily second place. A very muted holiday wave relative to all prior years, due to weak evolution and large summer numbers.
🔹The wildest forecast I've ever made was for Dec 2021, predicting multiple millions of daily infections. This one is easily second place. A very muted holiday wave relative to all prior years, due to weak evolution and large summer numbers.
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
The growth advantages of variants over the last year help tell the story.
🔸Pirola (JN.1) elevated 2023 ❄️ wave
🔸FLiRT (KP.2) and KP.3.1.1 back to back caused large summer waves
🔹XEC looks relatively low in comparison. That's why I refer to XEC as a weak leading variant.
🔸Pirola (JN.1) elevated 2023 ❄️ wave
🔸FLiRT (KP.2) and KP.3.1.1 back to back caused large summer waves
🔹XEC looks relatively low in comparison. That's why I refer to XEC as a weak leading variant.
November 12, 2024 at 11:26 PM
The growth advantages of variants over the last year help tell the story.
🔸Pirola (JN.1) elevated 2023 ❄️ wave
🔸FLiRT (KP.2) and KP.3.1.1 back to back caused large summer waves
🔹XEC looks relatively low in comparison. That's why I refer to XEC as a weak leading variant.
🔸Pirola (JN.1) elevated 2023 ❄️ wave
🔸FLiRT (KP.2) and KP.3.1.1 back to back caused large summer waves
🔹XEC looks relatively low in comparison. That's why I refer to XEC as a weak leading variant.
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
ABS today released life expectancy statistics for 2021-2023 (they publish three year averages).
www.abs.gov.au/statistics/p...
www.abs.gov.au/statistics/p...
Life expectancy, 2021 - 2023
Statistics about life tables and life expectancy estimates for Australia, states and territories and life expectancy at birth for sub-state regions.
www.abs.gov.au
November 8, 2024 at 7:19 AM
ABS today released life expectancy statistics for 2021-2023 (they publish three year averages).
www.abs.gov.au/statistics/p...
www.abs.gov.au/statistics/p...
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
UK life expectancy for 2021-2023, showing an increase. The Aust figures are due out in about two weeks but will show a decline (our 2023 mortality was worse than our 2020)
An increase in life expectancy (LE) today as 2023 replaces 2020 in 3-year average.
LE in Eng&Wal 2021-23 was:
• male 79 years (+13 wks)
• female 83 years (+11 wks)
LE remains below pre-pandemic levels (2017-19).
LE will increase again next year (2024 replaces 2021).
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
LE in Eng&Wal 2021-23 was:
• male 79 years (+13 wks)
• female 83 years (+11 wks)
LE remains below pre-pandemic levels (2017-19).
LE will increase again next year (2024 replaces 2021).
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
National life tables – life expectancy in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics
Trends in period life expectancy, a measure of the average number of years people will live beyond their current age, analysed by age and sex for England and Wales.
www.ons.gov.uk
October 23, 2024 at 9:04 PM
UK life expectancy for 2021-2023, showing an increase. The Aust figures are due out in about two weeks but will show a decline (our 2023 mortality was worse than our 2020)
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
If you can, please help spread the word that I joined this site by reposting or sharing this post!
Here is my 4 month winter outlook from September. We are still in line to have a significantly lower peak than last winter!
Here is my 4 month winter outlook from September. We are still in line to have a significantly lower peak than last winter!
October 19, 2024 at 1:15 AM
If you can, please help spread the word that I joined this site by reposting or sharing this post!
Here is my 4 month winter outlook from September. We are still in line to have a significantly lower peak than last winter!
Here is my 4 month winter outlook from September. We are still in line to have a significantly lower peak than last winter!
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
My first post has to be about #LongCOVID
🔹 400 million individuals affected worldwide
🔹 $1 trillion in annual economic costs
🔹 Countless lives & communities shattered
The time for a comprehensive policy and research response is now!
Details in our review here www.nature.com/articles/s41...
🔹 400 million individuals affected worldwide
🔹 $1 trillion in annual economic costs
🔹 Countless lives & communities shattered
The time for a comprehensive policy and research response is now!
Details in our review here www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Long COVID science, research and policy - Nature Medicine
This Review outlines the current state of scientific evidence on long COVID, discusses its impacts on patients, health systems, economies and global health metrics, and proposes a forward-looking rese...
www.nature.com
October 19, 2024 at 5:49 PM
My first post has to be about #LongCOVID
🔹 400 million individuals affected worldwide
🔹 $1 trillion in annual economic costs
🔹 Countless lives & communities shattered
The time for a comprehensive policy and research response is now!
Details in our review here www.nature.com/articles/s41...
🔹 400 million individuals affected worldwide
🔹 $1 trillion in annual economic costs
🔹 Countless lives & communities shattered
The time for a comprehensive policy and research response is now!
Details in our review here www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
New COVID-19 XBB 1.5 vaccine available to target current variants.
Providers can order this new vaccine, with doses being delivered ready to administer from 11 December 2023.
#COVID19 #XBBvaccines @Mark_Butler_MP
www.health.gov.au/ministers/th...
Providers can order this new vaccine, with doses being delivered ready to administer from 11 December 2023.
#COVID19 #XBBvaccines @Mark_Butler_MP
www.health.gov.au/ministers/th...
www.health.gov.au
November 20, 2023 at 5:44 AM
New COVID-19 XBB 1.5 vaccine available to target current variants.
Providers can order this new vaccine, with doses being delivered ready to administer from 11 December 2023.
#COVID19 #XBBvaccines @Mark_Butler_MP
www.health.gov.au/ministers/th...
Providers can order this new vaccine, with doses being delivered ready to administer from 11 December 2023.
#COVID19 #XBBvaccines @Mark_Butler_MP
www.health.gov.au/ministers/th...
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
"The data shows that the number of people becoming destitute is currently outstripping our ability to set up new correctional facilities to imprison them."
Concerning New Study Finds Nation’s Poverty Growing Faster Than Officials Can Build Prisons
WASHINGTON—A concerning new study released Monday by the Federal Bureau of Prisons found that the nation’s poverty is growing faster than officials can build prisons. “The data shows that the nu...
www.theonion.com
November 6, 2023 at 4:48 PM
"The data shows that the number of people becoming destitute is currently outstripping our ability to set up new correctional facilities to imprison them."
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
The meaning of life is wine.
We’re born because our parents drank wine. We study to find work to buy our own wine and have reasons to drink. Friends are people that drink wine with us, and then have kids with us, ending the cycle, as those kids become a forever excuse to drink wine whenever we want.
We’re born because our parents drank wine. We study to find work to buy our own wine and have reasons to drink. Friends are people that drink wine with us, and then have kids with us, ending the cycle, as those kids become a forever excuse to drink wine whenever we want.
November 5, 2023 at 4:44 PM
The meaning of life is wine.
We’re born because our parents drank wine. We study to find work to buy our own wine and have reasons to drink. Friends are people that drink wine with us, and then have kids with us, ending the cycle, as those kids become a forever excuse to drink wine whenever we want.
We’re born because our parents drank wine. We study to find work to buy our own wine and have reasons to drink. Friends are people that drink wine with us, and then have kids with us, ending the cycle, as those kids become a forever excuse to drink wine whenever we want.
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
Harlan Crow and a few billionaires have provided Clarence Thomas with:
-38 destination vacations
-26 private jet flights
-6 helicopter flights
-Yacht voyages
And we're going to let Thomas rule on Moore v. US, which could permanently shield billionaires from a wealth tax?
-38 destination vacations
-26 private jet flights
-6 helicopter flights
-Yacht voyages
And we're going to let Thomas rule on Moore v. US, which could permanently shield billionaires from a wealth tax?
October 25, 2023 at 10:24 PM
Harlan Crow and a few billionaires have provided Clarence Thomas with:
-38 destination vacations
-26 private jet flights
-6 helicopter flights
-Yacht voyages
And we're going to let Thomas rule on Moore v. US, which could permanently shield billionaires from a wealth tax?
-38 destination vacations
-26 private jet flights
-6 helicopter flights
-Yacht voyages
And we're going to let Thomas rule on Moore v. US, which could permanently shield billionaires from a wealth tax?
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
This may be the most important piece of journalism in the entire pandemic. Brilliant detective work by scientists; compellingly told.
www.wired.com/story/the-te...
www.wired.com/story/the-te...
The 60-Year-Old Scientific Screwup That Helped Covid Kill
All pandemic long, scientists brawled over how the virus spreads. Droplets! No, aerosols! At the heart of the fight was a teensy error with huge consequences.
www.wired.com
October 25, 2023 at 8:31 PM
This may be the most important piece of journalism in the entire pandemic. Brilliant detective work by scientists; compellingly told.
www.wired.com/story/the-te...
www.wired.com/story/the-te...
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
JN.1 growth is real.
New big data dump from France and other countries.
I think this solidifies things, this is quite fast. The trend in the last 4 weeks is so tight that it's messing with the confidence intervals!
I still like a lower CI of ~100%.
New big data dump from France and other countries.
I think this solidifies things, this is quite fast. The trend in the last 4 weeks is so tight that it's messing with the confidence intervals!
I still like a lower CI of ~100%.
October 24, 2023 at 11:36 PM
JN.1 growth is real.
New big data dump from France and other countries.
I think this solidifies things, this is quite fast. The trend in the last 4 weeks is so tight that it's messing with the confidence intervals!
I still like a lower CI of ~100%.
New big data dump from France and other countries.
I think this solidifies things, this is quite fast. The trend in the last 4 weeks is so tight that it's messing with the confidence intervals!
I still like a lower CI of ~100%.
Reposted by Covid is: Airborne, Not Over, and Endemic
The dismantling of the Australian COVID-19 case reporting is hiding the scale (or even existence) of the current wave of community transmission sweeping across the country.
More details:
aus.social/@mike_honey_...
More details:
aus.social/@mike_honey_...
Mike Honey (@mike_honey_@aus.social)
Attached: 1 image · Content warning: COVID-19 community transmission statistics for Australia
aus.social
October 24, 2023 at 1:59 AM
The dismantling of the Australian COVID-19 case reporting is hiding the scale (or even existence) of the current wave of community transmission sweeping across the country.
More details:
aus.social/@mike_honey_...
More details:
aus.social/@mike_honey_...