Huh, the headline has been changed to make more sense.

HMPV is endemic in Australia and the rest of the world. You probably didn't even notice the last wave of HMPV in Australia, which peaked in October.

You're probably already aware, but the CDC has a really wonky way of calculating the "wastewater viral activity level". I don't think there's any guarantee it would be even close to proportional to infections, especially at the ends of the range.

www.cdc.gov/nwss/about-d...

Can I ask how you're converting the wastewater numbers into infections per day? It looks fairly reasonable, but I wonder about whether it works to tell you quantitatively about the peak-to-trough variations. ED visits have fallen 5X but your blue curve about 4X and green curve about 3X.

Apparently it will be even worse once the effects of covid are included! 😬

(They only considered trends from 2002-2020 and extrapolated to 2040, so assumed no covid.)

pophealthanalytics.com/wp-content/u...