JPWeiland
@jpweiland.bsky.social
Scientist+Engineer. Infectious disease modeler. Posts and spelling mistakes my own
Pinned
JPWeiland
@jpweiland.bsky.social
· Nov 19
❄️ Holiday Season Forecast:
🔹The wildest forecast I've ever made was for Dec 2021, predicting multiple millions of daily infections. This one is easily second place. A very muted holiday wave relative to all prior years, due to weak evolution and large summer numbers.
🔹The wildest forecast I've ever made was for Dec 2021, predicting multiple millions of daily infections. This one is easily second place. A very muted holiday wave relative to all prior years, due to weak evolution and large summer numbers.
This is one of the coolest visualizations I've seen of waves moving throughout the country over 2 years. Note the seasonal patterns in various states.
From Yale school of public health
From Yale school of public health
November 8, 2025 at 12:18 AM
This is one of the coolest visualizations I've seen of waves moving throughout the country over 2 years. Note the seasonal patterns in various states.
From Yale school of public health
From Yale school of public health
BIOFIRE and WWScan both show the lowest readings since Pirola (BA.2.86*) swept two years ago.
We're in a good lull right now.
We're in a good lull right now.
November 6, 2025 at 2:22 AM
BIOFIRE and WWScan both show the lowest readings since Pirola (BA.2.86*) swept two years ago.
We're in a good lull right now.
We're in a good lull right now.
Will we have a G4 or G5 geomagnetic superstorm in the next week like we did twice in 2024?
Honestly? My gut says yes.
Honestly? My gut says yes.
November 5, 2025 at 11:11 PM
Will we have a G4 or G5 geomagnetic superstorm in the next week like we did twice in 2024?
Honestly? My gut says yes.
Honestly? My gut says yes.
We have a solid CME coming our way, with expected impact tomorrow night into Friday!
I don't think this activity is nearly done yet, we could be in for a lot of chances this next week or two!
I don't think this activity is nearly done yet, we could be in for a lot of chances this next week or two!
November 5, 2025 at 5:29 PM
We have a solid CME coming our way, with expected impact tomorrow night into Friday!
I don't think this activity is nearly done yet, we could be in for a lot of chances this next week or two!
I don't think this activity is nearly done yet, we could be in for a lot of chances this next week or two!
The sun is ULTRA active right now, two X flares today and multiple CMEs! While not directly pointed at earth, we might still see some impacts. I hope these ARs keep it up as they rotate toward earth!
November 4, 2025 at 11:34 PM
The sun is ULTRA active right now, two X flares today and multiple CMEs! While not directly pointed at earth, we might still see some impacts. I hope these ARs keep it up as they rotate toward earth!
Pretty dramatic damage to the vegetation in Western Jamaica is visible via zoom.earth satellite imagery.
October 22nd vs today
October 22nd vs today
October 31, 2025 at 11:42 PM
Pretty dramatic damage to the vegetation in Western Jamaica is visible via zoom.earth satellite imagery.
October 22nd vs today
October 22nd vs today
GISAID is now blocking genomic sequencing access to critical resources like Nextstrain, Covspectrum, Outbreak-info, & others.
This makes us less safe, as live tracking of viral evolution remains critical for assessment of emerging threats. This needs to be escalated.
This makes us less safe, as live tracking of viral evolution remains critical for assessment of emerging threats. This needs to be escalated.
Bad. No justification, no communication, no standard procedures for making changes—just arbitrary pronouncements cutting off access to some of the most valuable resources we have.
And now NextStrain as well.
Next up, will GISAID start charging open-source community tools to have access?
That would completely shaft users who contributed to GISAID, where we never agreed to that and assumed GISAID would be good custodians of the data we contributed. They're not.
Next up, will GISAID start charging open-source community tools to have access?
That would completely shaft users who contributed to GISAID, where we never agreed to that and assumed GISAID would be good custodians of the data we contributed. They're not.
October 30, 2025 at 10:53 PM
GISAID is now blocking genomic sequencing access to critical resources like Nextstrain, Covspectrum, Outbreak-info, & others.
This makes us less safe, as live tracking of viral evolution remains critical for assessment of emerging threats. This needs to be escalated.
This makes us less safe, as live tracking of viral evolution remains critical for assessment of emerging threats. This needs to be escalated.
Defaulting to surgical masks in health care settings in 2025 is one of the most dissapointing examples of reluctance to change despite overwhelming evidence.
Even defaulting to KN95 style would significantly increase protection of the most vulnerable.
Infuriating inertia in the HC industry.
Even defaulting to KN95 style would significantly increase protection of the most vulnerable.
Infuriating inertia in the HC industry.
October 30, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Defaulting to surgical masks in health care settings in 2025 is one of the most dissapointing examples of reluctance to change despite overwhelming evidence.
Even defaulting to KN95 style would significantly increase protection of the most vulnerable.
Infuriating inertia in the HC industry.
Even defaulting to KN95 style would significantly increase protection of the most vulnerable.
Infuriating inertia in the HC industry.
Every optometrist's worst nightmare.
Seriously though, this is not a world record you want to see broken less than a day before a predicted landfall.
Seriously though, this is not a world record you want to see broken less than a day before a predicted landfall.
Watch as it zooms all the way into the eye!
Melissa just broke a World record for the "driest" eye in any hurricane! Illustrates just how textbook this storm structure is... 1/
Melissa just broke a World record for the "driest" eye in any hurricane! Illustrates just how textbook this storm structure is... 1/
October 27, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Every optometrist's worst nightmare.
Seriously though, this is not a world record you want to see broken less than a day before a predicted landfall.
Seriously though, this is not a world record you want to see broken less than a day before a predicted landfall.
The latest dropsondes into Hurricane Melissa shows ultra rapid intensification is underway. A drop of 8mb in only a couple hours down to 959mb, and eyewall wind speeds of 132mph suggests it's near Category 4 already. Wow
October 26, 2025 at 5:09 AM
The latest dropsondes into Hurricane Melissa shows ultra rapid intensification is underway. A drop of 8mb in only a couple hours down to 959mb, and eyewall wind speeds of 132mph suggests it's near Category 4 already. Wow
Hurricane Melissa is setting itself up to cause widespread damage in Jamaica over the coming days, with up to 40 inches of rain forecasted, followed by the possibility of a Category 4 or 5 landfall.
An awful outlook at the moment.
An awful outlook at the moment.
October 25, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Hurricane Melissa is setting itself up to cause widespread damage in Jamaica over the coming days, with up to 40 inches of rain forecasted, followed by the possibility of a Category 4 or 5 landfall.
An awful outlook at the moment.
An awful outlook at the moment.
We have two active data sets;
🔹WWScan wastewater
🔸BIOFiRE positivity
Both suggest we are now near multi year lows for transmission. I'd expect this to last for another month before Thanksgiving gives it a boost up.
🔹WWScan wastewater
🔸BIOFiRE positivity
Both suggest we are now near multi year lows for transmission. I'd expect this to last for another month before Thanksgiving gives it a boost up.
October 24, 2025 at 2:05 AM
We have two active data sets;
🔹WWScan wastewater
🔸BIOFiRE positivity
Both suggest we are now near multi year lows for transmission. I'd expect this to last for another month before Thanksgiving gives it a boost up.
🔹WWScan wastewater
🔸BIOFiRE positivity
Both suggest we are now near multi year lows for transmission. I'd expect this to last for another month before Thanksgiving gives it a boost up.
I didn't realize this last night, but Comet Lemmon actually moved considerably against the background stars over the 20 minutes we looked at it!
October 20, 2025 at 10:06 PM
I didn't realize this last night, but Comet Lemmon actually moved considerably against the background stars over the 20 minutes we looked at it!
Comet Lemmon looks awesome through a telescope tonight!
October 20, 2025 at 1:02 AM
Comet Lemmon looks awesome through a telescope tonight!
WastewaterSCAN suggests that we are at the lowest levels in years... but I am not confident in that claim without ED, NWSS or Biobot data for the few of weeks.
I do miss having 4 data sets to cross compare...
I do miss having 4 data sets to cross compare...
October 15, 2025 at 1:07 AM
WastewaterSCAN suggests that we are at the lowest levels in years... but I am not confident in that claim without ED, NWSS or Biobot data for the few of weeks.
I do miss having 4 data sets to cross compare...
I do miss having 4 data sets to cross compare...
Lacking CDC data again this week, we turn to our secondary wastewater source
@wastewaterscan.bsky.social
🔸The trajectory through September suggests that we may be approaching yearly lows today of 150-200k/day.
@wastewaterscan.bsky.social
🔸The trajectory through September suggests that we may be approaching yearly lows today of 150-200k/day.
October 10, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Lacking CDC data again this week, we turn to our secondary wastewater source
@wastewaterscan.bsky.social
🔸The trajectory through September suggests that we may be approaching yearly lows today of 150-200k/day.
@wastewaterscan.bsky.social
🔸The trajectory through September suggests that we may be approaching yearly lows today of 150-200k/day.
Both emergency dept and wastewater data suggest a rapid decline in prevalence after a relatively modest summer peak. The lull in evolution continues... with no new fast variants close behind XFG.
That being said, we're still watching BA.3.2*
That being said, we're still watching BA.3.2*
October 6, 2025 at 11:25 PM
Both emergency dept and wastewater data suggest a rapid decline in prevalence after a relatively modest summer peak. The lull in evolution continues... with no new fast variants close behind XFG.
That being said, we're still watching BA.3.2*
That being said, we're still watching BA.3.2*
Sept 28th update:
Wastewater daily inf estimate are cratering, just as anticipated via the model. This trend should continue for at least the next month.
🔸510,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in 66 currently infected
🔸1 in 165 highly infectious
Wastewater daily inf estimate are cratering, just as anticipated via the model. This trend should continue for at least the next month.
🔸510,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in 66 currently infected
🔸1 in 165 highly infectious
September 29, 2025 at 2:40 AM
Sept 28th update:
Wastewater daily inf estimate are cratering, just as anticipated via the model. This trend should continue for at least the next month.
🔸510,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in 66 currently infected
🔸1 in 165 highly infectious
Wastewater daily inf estimate are cratering, just as anticipated via the model. This trend should continue for at least the next month.
🔸510,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in 66 currently infected
🔸1 in 165 highly infectious
I heard somewhere recently that if you want your child to excel in math and science, all you have to do is pop a bunch of Tylenol?
Big if true
Big if true
September 23, 2025 at 11:59 PM
I heard somewhere recently that if you want your child to excel in math and science, all you have to do is pop a bunch of Tylenol?
Big if true
Big if true
Get ready for late October! Comet "Lemmon" is forecasted to reach an apparent magnitude of 5 to 2, which suggests it could be brighter than last year's comet!
And it's green! This is due to the presence of a molecule you'll never find on earth: C2 (diatomic carbon)
And it's green! This is due to the presence of a molecule you'll never find on earth: C2 (diatomic carbon)
September 17, 2025 at 11:14 PM
Get ready for late October! Comet "Lemmon" is forecasted to reach an apparent magnitude of 5 to 2, which suggests it could be brighter than last year's comet!
And it's green! This is due to the presence of a molecule you'll never find on earth: C2 (diatomic carbon)
And it's green! This is due to the presence of a molecule you'll never find on earth: C2 (diatomic carbon)
Happy Pythagoras day to all you nerds! (9/16/25)
3^2 + 4^2 = 5^2
3^2 + 4^2 = 5^2
September 17, 2025 at 2:02 AM
Happy Pythagoras day to all you nerds! (9/16/25)
3^2 + 4^2 = 5^2
3^2 + 4^2 = 5^2
Sept 12th update:
Wastewater daily inf estimate increased to 600k this week. Positivity and ED data have both peaked and begun to retreat, and I expect wastewater will soon follow.
🔸600,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in 55 currently infected
🔸1 in 140 infectious out of household
Wastewater daily inf estimate increased to 600k this week. Positivity and ED data have both peaked and begun to retreat, and I expect wastewater will soon follow.
🔸600,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in 55 currently infected
🔸1 in 140 infectious out of household
September 12, 2025 at 10:40 PM
Sept 12th update:
Wastewater daily inf estimate increased to 600k this week. Positivity and ED data have both peaked and begun to retreat, and I expect wastewater will soon follow.
🔸600,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in 55 currently infected
🔸1 in 140 infectious out of household
Wastewater daily inf estimate increased to 600k this week. Positivity and ED data have both peaked and begun to retreat, and I expect wastewater will soon follow.
🔸600,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in 55 currently infected
🔸1 in 140 infectious out of household
The CDC quietly neutered the best Covid data on the planet yesterday. ED data visualization has been stripped of age stratification, and state-by-state trends.
ED data has been far better for state by state trends than WW. Poof.
ED data has been far better for state by state trends than WW. Poof.
September 6, 2025 at 6:06 PM
The CDC quietly neutered the best Covid data on the planet yesterday. ED data visualization has been stripped of age stratification, and state-by-state trends.
ED data has been far better for state by state trends than WW. Poof.
ED data has been far better for state by state trends than WW. Poof.