JPWeiland
@jpweiland.bsky.social
Scientist+Engineer. Infectious disease modeler. Posts and spelling mistakes my own
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JPWeiland
@jpweiland.bsky.social
· Nov 19
❄️ Holiday Season Forecast:
🔹The wildest forecast I've ever made was for Dec 2021, predicting multiple millions of daily infections. This one is easily second place. A very muted holiday wave relative to all prior years, due to weak evolution and large summer numbers.
🔹The wildest forecast I've ever made was for Dec 2021, predicting multiple millions of daily infections. This one is easily second place. A very muted holiday wave relative to all prior years, due to weak evolution and large summer numbers.
Reposted by JPWeiland
Very proud to be a co-author on this comprehensive preprint on the novel, growing saltation lineage BA.3.2, together with @tuliodna.bsky.social, @darrenmartin.bsky.social, Dikeledi Kekana, and lead author @graemedor.bsky.social. 1/11
bsky.app/profile/tuli...
bsky.app/profile/tuli...
SARS-CoV-2 continue to surprise us with evolutionary jumps. In this pre-print, we describe the Identification and genomic characterisation of BA.3.2: a highly divergent BA.3-related SARS-CoV-2 lineage from southern Africa. A thread 🧵 www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
Identification and genomic characterisation of BA.3.2: a highly divergent BA.3-related SARS-CoV-2 lineage from southern Africa
In November 2024, a highly divergent BA.3-related SARS-CoV-2 lineage, designated BA.3.2, was detected in South Africa, marking the first appearance of a BA.3-derived lineage in over two years. Phyloge...
www.medrxiv.org
December 29, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Very proud to be a co-author on this comprehensive preprint on the novel, growing saltation lineage BA.3.2, together with @tuliodna.bsky.social, @darrenmartin.bsky.social, Dikeledi Kekana, and lead author @graemedor.bsky.social. 1/11
bsky.app/profile/tuli...
bsky.app/profile/tuli...
Walgreens ARI has flu nationally at 6/10 and Cov19 at 2/10.
There are a dozen states at 10/10 flu. Some NFL teams have up to 10 players currently ill.
Be careful out there!
There are a dozen states at 10/10 flu. Some NFL teams have up to 10 players currently ill.
Be careful out there!
December 29, 2025 at 2:59 AM
Walgreens ARI has flu nationally at 6/10 and Cov19 at 2/10.
There are a dozen states at 10/10 flu. Some NFL teams have up to 10 players currently ill.
Be careful out there!
There are a dozen states at 10/10 flu. Some NFL teams have up to 10 players currently ill.
Be careful out there!
Seahawks-Rams on Thursday: Best game of the season!!
Bears-Packers:
Bears-Packers:
two men standing next to each other with the words mmb says hold my beer
ALT: two men standing next to each other with the words mmb says hold my beer
media.tenor.com
December 21, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Seahawks-Rams on Thursday: Best game of the season!!
Bears-Packers:
Bears-Packers:
Well, I think recent data suggests ~90% chance that BA.3.2 will quickly take over and replace the BA.2.86 (Pirola) lineages that dominated for more than 2 years.
50-80% weekly advantage noted in Euorpe in recent months is convincing that it's turned a corner
50-80% weekly advantage noted in Euorpe in recent months is convincing that it's turned a corner
December 18, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Well, I think recent data suggests ~90% chance that BA.3.2 will quickly take over and replace the BA.2.86 (Pirola) lineages that dominated for more than 2 years.
50-80% weekly advantage noted in Euorpe in recent months is convincing that it's turned a corner
50-80% weekly advantage noted in Euorpe in recent months is convincing that it's turned a corner
BA.3.2* still appears to be a bit of an enigma, with recent German sequences at only 1 out of 30. This suggests that there is still a lot of uncertainty in its fitness advantage.
It's clearly nowhere near dominant today if the samples are any bit random.
It's clearly nowhere near dominant today if the samples are any bit random.
December 2, 2025 at 3:51 AM
BA.3.2* still appears to be a bit of an enigma, with recent German sequences at only 1 out of 30. This suggests that there is still a lot of uncertainty in its fitness advantage.
It's clearly nowhere near dominant today if the samples are any bit random.
It's clearly nowhere near dominant today if the samples are any bit random.
Despite what some who aren't privy to the details claim, yes there are absolutely seasonally driven trends ON TOP OF the irregularity of sudden escape evolution.
I can confidently say that the northern states will have a similar modest winter peak this year and in '26, a Jul/Aug wave in the south
I can confidently say that the northern states will have a similar modest winter peak this year and in '26, a Jul/Aug wave in the south
There are no seasonal patterns evident, at least to my eye. It's high in the south in winter, summer, and fall, for example. And there are only a few years of data: far too little to establish seasonality.
November 30, 2025 at 6:09 AM
Despite what some who aren't privy to the details claim, yes there are absolutely seasonally driven trends ON TOP OF the irregularity of sudden escape evolution.
I can confidently say that the northern states will have a similar modest winter peak this year and in '26, a Jul/Aug wave in the south
I can confidently say that the northern states will have a similar modest winter peak this year and in '26, a Jul/Aug wave in the south
Flu "Variant K" appears to be expanding rapidly in the US as noted in BIOFIRE data. Confidence is increasing that this will be a bad flu season.
November 23, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Flu "Variant K" appears to be expanding rapidly in the US as noted in BIOFIRE data. Confidence is increasing that this will be a bad flu season.
A potentially concerning reassortment of HPAI H5N1 to H5N5 infected a man at his backyard bird farm in Washington state. He has since succumbed to the virus😔. No evidence of H-H transmission, but every roll of the dice creates more opportunities.
BREAKING: Man from Washington state dies after being infected with H5N5 bird flu
November 22, 2025 at 7:10 PM
A potentially concerning reassortment of HPAI H5N1 to H5N5 infected a man at his backyard bird farm in Washington state. He has since succumbed to the virus😔. No evidence of H-H transmission, but every roll of the dice creates more opportunities.
Nov 21st Update:
NWSS is back! After what may have been the lowest transmission rates since 2021, we are seeing rises again. Expect this to accelerate into the holiday season, especially in MW&NE
Estimates:
🔸150,000 new inf/day
🔸~1 in 220 currently infected
🔸~1 in 550 are significantly infectious
NWSS is back! After what may have been the lowest transmission rates since 2021, we are seeing rises again. Expect this to accelerate into the holiday season, especially in MW&NE
Estimates:
🔸150,000 new inf/day
🔸~1 in 220 currently infected
🔸~1 in 550 are significantly infectious
November 21, 2025 at 11:39 PM
Nov 21st Update:
NWSS is back! After what may have been the lowest transmission rates since 2021, we are seeing rises again. Expect this to accelerate into the holiday season, especially in MW&NE
Estimates:
🔸150,000 new inf/day
🔸~1 in 220 currently infected
🔸~1 in 550 are significantly infectious
NWSS is back! After what may have been the lowest transmission rates since 2021, we are seeing rises again. Expect this to accelerate into the holiday season, especially in MW&NE
Estimates:
🔸150,000 new inf/day
🔸~1 in 220 currently infected
🔸~1 in 550 are significantly infectious
It's taken a full year for BA.3.2* to just get this far, but the 8 new sequences out of Germany makes me wonder if it has finally reached a turning point where it could move toward dominance over BA.2.86*.
Up to maybe 10% in Germany. We'll have to continue to monitor this one.
Up to maybe 10% in Germany. We'll have to continue to monitor this one.
November 21, 2025 at 12:02 AM
It's taken a full year for BA.3.2* to just get this far, but the 8 new sequences out of Germany makes me wonder if it has finally reached a turning point where it could move toward dominance over BA.2.86*.
Up to maybe 10% in Germany. We'll have to continue to monitor this one.
Up to maybe 10% in Germany. We'll have to continue to monitor this one.
Wow!! The X4 flare that just missed us to the right is clocking in above the May 2024 superstorm levels on our Stereo A 🛰!! Sustained -50 Bz
That is a brutal near miss of a superstorm that would have probably been visible in Mexico
That is a brutal near miss of a superstorm that would have probably been visible in Mexico
November 15, 2025 at 10:47 PM
Wow!! The X4 flare that just missed us to the right is clocking in above the May 2024 superstorm levels on our Stereo A 🛰!! Sustained -50 Bz
That is a brutal near miss of a superstorm that would have probably been visible in Mexico
That is a brutal near miss of a superstorm that would have probably been visible in Mexico
Not going to say I called it, but not going to not say I called it.
Will we have a G4 or G5 geomagnetic superstorm in the next week like we did twice in 2024?
Honestly? My gut says yes.
Honestly? My gut says yes.
November 14, 2025 at 12:24 AM
Not going to say I called it, but not going to not say I called it.
Despite the clouds, still had a decent view of the Northern Lights tonight!
Definitely better on camera tonight than to the eye.
Definitely better on camera tonight than to the eye.
November 13, 2025 at 3:45 AM
Despite the clouds, still had a decent view of the Northern Lights tonight!
Definitely better on camera tonight than to the eye.
Definitely better on camera tonight than to the eye.
What a great night!
November 12, 2025 at 4:13 AM
What a great night!
WOOOOOW
THIS IS A HUGE SIGNAL, GET YOUR CAMERAS READY!
THIS IS A HUGE SIGNAL, GET YOUR CAMERAS READY!
November 12, 2025 at 12:35 AM
WOOOOOW
THIS IS A HUGE SIGNAL, GET YOUR CAMERAS READY!
THIS IS A HUGE SIGNAL, GET YOUR CAMERAS READY!
WOOOOOW!!
GAME ON FOR TONIGHT! BZ APPROACHING -60
GAME ON FOR TONIGHT! BZ APPROACHING -60
November 12, 2025 at 12:02 AM
WOOOOOW!!
GAME ON FOR TONIGHT! BZ APPROACHING -60
GAME ON FOR TONIGHT! BZ APPROACHING -60
🔸️Early data suggests we could be in for a worse than normal flu season, brought on by a cluster of escape mutations in H3N2 this year that may lift the Re from 1.2 to 1.4. We are starting to see an uptick in the US. Data from BIOFIRE.
November 11, 2025 at 11:52 PM
🔸️Early data suggests we could be in for a worse than normal flu season, brought on by a cluster of escape mutations in H3N2 this year that may lift the Re from 1.2 to 1.4. We are starting to see an uptick in the US. Data from BIOFIRE.
💥A *MASSIVE* CME was launched early this morning with a predicted direct hit to earth tomorrow! 1300km/s would be an insanely fast impact.
*IF* it has favorable polarity, we could see a superstorm similar to the two in 2024!
Get your cameras charged.
*IF* it has favorable polarity, we could see a superstorm similar to the two in 2024!
Get your cameras charged.
November 11, 2025 at 11:35 PM
💥A *MASSIVE* CME was launched early this morning with a predicted direct hit to earth tomorrow! 1300km/s would be an insanely fast impact.
*IF* it has favorable polarity, we could see a superstorm similar to the two in 2024!
Get your cameras charged.
*IF* it has favorable polarity, we could see a superstorm similar to the two in 2024!
Get your cameras charged.
This is one of the coolest visualizations I've seen of waves moving throughout the country over 2 years. Note the seasonal patterns in various states.
From Yale school of public health
From Yale school of public health
November 8, 2025 at 12:18 AM
This is one of the coolest visualizations I've seen of waves moving throughout the country over 2 years. Note the seasonal patterns in various states.
From Yale school of public health
From Yale school of public health
BIOFIRE and WWScan both show the lowest readings since Pirola (BA.2.86*) swept two years ago.
We're in a good lull right now.
We're in a good lull right now.
November 6, 2025 at 2:22 AM
BIOFIRE and WWScan both show the lowest readings since Pirola (BA.2.86*) swept two years ago.
We're in a good lull right now.
We're in a good lull right now.
Will we have a G4 or G5 geomagnetic superstorm in the next week like we did twice in 2024?
Honestly? My gut says yes.
Honestly? My gut says yes.
November 5, 2025 at 11:11 PM
Will we have a G4 or G5 geomagnetic superstorm in the next week like we did twice in 2024?
Honestly? My gut says yes.
Honestly? My gut says yes.
We have a solid CME coming our way, with expected impact tomorrow night into Friday!
I don't think this activity is nearly done yet, we could be in for a lot of chances this next week or two!
I don't think this activity is nearly done yet, we could be in for a lot of chances this next week or two!
November 5, 2025 at 5:29 PM
We have a solid CME coming our way, with expected impact tomorrow night into Friday!
I don't think this activity is nearly done yet, we could be in for a lot of chances this next week or two!
I don't think this activity is nearly done yet, we could be in for a lot of chances this next week or two!
The sun is ULTRA active right now, two X flares today and multiple CMEs! While not directly pointed at earth, we might still see some impacts. I hope these ARs keep it up as they rotate toward earth!
November 4, 2025 at 11:34 PM
The sun is ULTRA active right now, two X flares today and multiple CMEs! While not directly pointed at earth, we might still see some impacts. I hope these ARs keep it up as they rotate toward earth!
Pretty dramatic damage to the vegetation in Western Jamaica is visible via zoom.earth satellite imagery.
October 22nd vs today
October 22nd vs today
October 31, 2025 at 11:42 PM
Pretty dramatic damage to the vegetation in Western Jamaica is visible via zoom.earth satellite imagery.
October 22nd vs today
October 22nd vs today