JPWeiland
@jpweiland.bsky.social
Scientist+Engineer. Infectious disease modeler. Posts and spelling mistakes my own
BA.3.2* still appears to be a bit of an enigma, with recent German sequences at only 1 out of 30. This suggests that there is still a lot of uncertainty in its fitness advantage.
It's clearly nowhere near dominant today if the samples are any bit random.
It's clearly nowhere near dominant today if the samples are any bit random.
December 2, 2025 at 3:51 AM
BA.3.2* still appears to be a bit of an enigma, with recent German sequences at only 1 out of 30. This suggests that there is still a lot of uncertainty in its fitness advantage.
It's clearly nowhere near dominant today if the samples are any bit random.
It's clearly nowhere near dominant today if the samples are any bit random.
Flu "Variant K" appears to be expanding rapidly in the US as noted in BIOFIRE data. Confidence is increasing that this will be a bad flu season.
November 23, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Flu "Variant K" appears to be expanding rapidly in the US as noted in BIOFIRE data. Confidence is increasing that this will be a bad flu season.
Nov 21st Update:
NWSS is back! After what may have been the lowest transmission rates since 2021, we are seeing rises again. Expect this to accelerate into the holiday season, especially in MW&NE
Estimates:
🔸150,000 new inf/day
🔸~1 in 220 currently infected
🔸~1 in 550 are significantly infectious
NWSS is back! After what may have been the lowest transmission rates since 2021, we are seeing rises again. Expect this to accelerate into the holiday season, especially in MW&NE
Estimates:
🔸150,000 new inf/day
🔸~1 in 220 currently infected
🔸~1 in 550 are significantly infectious
November 21, 2025 at 11:39 PM
Nov 21st Update:
NWSS is back! After what may have been the lowest transmission rates since 2021, we are seeing rises again. Expect this to accelerate into the holiday season, especially in MW&NE
Estimates:
🔸150,000 new inf/day
🔸~1 in 220 currently infected
🔸~1 in 550 are significantly infectious
NWSS is back! After what may have been the lowest transmission rates since 2021, we are seeing rises again. Expect this to accelerate into the holiday season, especially in MW&NE
Estimates:
🔸150,000 new inf/day
🔸~1 in 220 currently infected
🔸~1 in 550 are significantly infectious
BA.2.86 came out of the gate with ~45% advantage, and the addition of L455S within 6 weeks brought it to nearly 100%/wk.
BA.3.2 has been at ~10%/wk and has had a lot more time to find fitness advantages, but has yet to take off like BA.2.86 did.
BA.3.2 has been at ~10%/wk and has had a lot more time to find fitness advantages, but has yet to take off like BA.2.86 did.
November 21, 2025 at 12:02 AM
BA.2.86 came out of the gate with ~45% advantage, and the addition of L455S within 6 weeks brought it to nearly 100%/wk.
BA.3.2 has been at ~10%/wk and has had a lot more time to find fitness advantages, but has yet to take off like BA.2.86 did.
BA.3.2 has been at ~10%/wk and has had a lot more time to find fitness advantages, but has yet to take off like BA.2.86 did.
It's taken a full year for BA.3.2* to just get this far, but the 8 new sequences out of Germany makes me wonder if it has finally reached a turning point where it could move toward dominance over BA.2.86*.
Up to maybe 10% in Germany. We'll have to continue to monitor this one.
Up to maybe 10% in Germany. We'll have to continue to monitor this one.
November 21, 2025 at 12:02 AM
It's taken a full year for BA.3.2* to just get this far, but the 8 new sequences out of Germany makes me wonder if it has finally reached a turning point where it could move toward dominance over BA.2.86*.
Up to maybe 10% in Germany. We'll have to continue to monitor this one.
Up to maybe 10% in Germany. We'll have to continue to monitor this one.
Wow!! The X4 flare that just missed us to the right is clocking in above the May 2024 superstorm levels on our Stereo A 🛰!! Sustained -50 Bz
That is a brutal near miss of a superstorm that would have probably been visible in Mexico
That is a brutal near miss of a superstorm that would have probably been visible in Mexico
November 15, 2025 at 10:47 PM
Wow!! The X4 flare that just missed us to the right is clocking in above the May 2024 superstorm levels on our Stereo A 🛰!! Sustained -50 Bz
That is a brutal near miss of a superstorm that would have probably been visible in Mexico
That is a brutal near miss of a superstorm that would have probably been visible in Mexico
Despite the clouds, still had a decent view of the Northern Lights tonight!
Definitely better on camera tonight than to the eye.
Definitely better on camera tonight than to the eye.
November 13, 2025 at 3:45 AM
Despite the clouds, still had a decent view of the Northern Lights tonight!
Definitely better on camera tonight than to the eye.
Definitely better on camera tonight than to the eye.
What a great night!
November 12, 2025 at 4:13 AM
What a great night!
WOOOOOW
THIS IS A HUGE SIGNAL, GET YOUR CAMERAS READY!
THIS IS A HUGE SIGNAL, GET YOUR CAMERAS READY!
November 12, 2025 at 12:35 AM
WOOOOOW
THIS IS A HUGE SIGNAL, GET YOUR CAMERAS READY!
THIS IS A HUGE SIGNAL, GET YOUR CAMERAS READY!
WOOOOOW!!
GAME ON FOR TONIGHT! BZ APPROACHING -60
GAME ON FOR TONIGHT! BZ APPROACHING -60
November 12, 2025 at 12:02 AM
WOOOOOW!!
GAME ON FOR TONIGHT! BZ APPROACHING -60
GAME ON FOR TONIGHT! BZ APPROACHING -60
🔸️Early data suggests we could be in for a worse than normal flu season, brought on by a cluster of escape mutations in H3N2 this year that may lift the Re from 1.2 to 1.4. We are starting to see an uptick in the US. Data from BIOFIRE.
November 11, 2025 at 11:52 PM
🔸️Early data suggests we could be in for a worse than normal flu season, brought on by a cluster of escape mutations in H3N2 this year that may lift the Re from 1.2 to 1.4. We are starting to see an uptick in the US. Data from BIOFIRE.
💥A *MASSIVE* CME was launched early this morning with a predicted direct hit to earth tomorrow! 1300km/s would be an insanely fast impact.
*IF* it has favorable polarity, we could see a superstorm similar to the two in 2024!
Get your cameras charged.
*IF* it has favorable polarity, we could see a superstorm similar to the two in 2024!
Get your cameras charged.
November 11, 2025 at 11:35 PM
💥A *MASSIVE* CME was launched early this morning with a predicted direct hit to earth tomorrow! 1300km/s would be an insanely fast impact.
*IF* it has favorable polarity, we could see a superstorm similar to the two in 2024!
Get your cameras charged.
*IF* it has favorable polarity, we could see a superstorm similar to the two in 2024!
Get your cameras charged.
This is one of the coolest visualizations I've seen of waves moving throughout the country over 2 years. Note the seasonal patterns in various states.
From Yale school of public health
From Yale school of public health
November 8, 2025 at 12:18 AM
This is one of the coolest visualizations I've seen of waves moving throughout the country over 2 years. Note the seasonal patterns in various states.
From Yale school of public health
From Yale school of public health
BIOFIRE and WWScan both show the lowest readings since Pirola (BA.2.86*) swept two years ago.
We're in a good lull right now.
We're in a good lull right now.
November 6, 2025 at 2:22 AM
BIOFIRE and WWScan both show the lowest readings since Pirola (BA.2.86*) swept two years ago.
We're in a good lull right now.
We're in a good lull right now.
Will we have a G4 or G5 geomagnetic superstorm in the next week like we did twice in 2024?
Honestly? My gut says yes.
Honestly? My gut says yes.
November 5, 2025 at 11:11 PM
Will we have a G4 or G5 geomagnetic superstorm in the next week like we did twice in 2024?
Honestly? My gut says yes.
Honestly? My gut says yes.
We had another one overnight that is sure to impact earth! I think it's going to keep going too 🤞
November 5, 2025 at 5:30 PM
We had another one overnight that is sure to impact earth! I think it's going to keep going too 🤞
We have a solid CME coming our way, with expected impact tomorrow night into Friday!
I don't think this activity is nearly done yet, we could be in for a lot of chances this next week or two!
I don't think this activity is nearly done yet, we could be in for a lot of chances this next week or two!
November 5, 2025 at 5:29 PM
We have a solid CME coming our way, with expected impact tomorrow night into Friday!
I don't think this activity is nearly done yet, we could be in for a lot of chances this next week or two!
I don't think this activity is nearly done yet, we could be in for a lot of chances this next week or two!
The sun is ULTRA active right now, two X flares today and multiple CMEs! While not directly pointed at earth, we might still see some impacts. I hope these ARs keep it up as they rotate toward earth!
November 4, 2025 at 11:34 PM
The sun is ULTRA active right now, two X flares today and multiple CMEs! While not directly pointed at earth, we might still see some impacts. I hope these ARs keep it up as they rotate toward earth!
Pretty dramatic damage to the vegetation in Western Jamaica is visible via zoom.earth satellite imagery.
October 22nd vs today
October 22nd vs today
October 31, 2025 at 11:42 PM
Pretty dramatic damage to the vegetation in Western Jamaica is visible via zoom.earth satellite imagery.
October 22nd vs today
October 22nd vs today
This infrared satellite image is one of the most shocking I've seen. I wonder if it's on a path to break other records in the next few hours 😔
October 27, 2025 at 10:27 PM
This infrared satellite image is one of the most shocking I've seen. I wonder if it's on a path to break other records in the next few hours 😔
The latest dropsondes into Hurricane Melissa shows ultra rapid intensification is underway. A drop of 8mb in only a couple hours down to 959mb, and eyewall wind speeds of 132mph suggests it's near Category 4 already. Wow
October 26, 2025 at 5:09 AM
The latest dropsondes into Hurricane Melissa shows ultra rapid intensification is underway. A drop of 8mb in only a couple hours down to 959mb, and eyewall wind speeds of 132mph suggests it's near Category 4 already. Wow
Hurricane Melissa is setting itself up to cause widespread damage in Jamaica over the coming days, with up to 40 inches of rain forecasted, followed by the possibility of a Category 4 or 5 landfall.
An awful outlook at the moment.
An awful outlook at the moment.
October 25, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Hurricane Melissa is setting itself up to cause widespread damage in Jamaica over the coming days, with up to 40 inches of rain forecasted, followed by the possibility of a Category 4 or 5 landfall.
An awful outlook at the moment.
An awful outlook at the moment.
We have two active data sets;
🔹WWScan wastewater
🔸BIOFiRE positivity
Both suggest we are now near multi year lows for transmission. I'd expect this to last for another month before Thanksgiving gives it a boost up.
🔹WWScan wastewater
🔸BIOFiRE positivity
Both suggest we are now near multi year lows for transmission. I'd expect this to last for another month before Thanksgiving gives it a boost up.
October 24, 2025 at 2:05 AM
We have two active data sets;
🔹WWScan wastewater
🔸BIOFiRE positivity
Both suggest we are now near multi year lows for transmission. I'd expect this to last for another month before Thanksgiving gives it a boost up.
🔹WWScan wastewater
🔸BIOFiRE positivity
Both suggest we are now near multi year lows for transmission. I'd expect this to last for another month before Thanksgiving gives it a boost up.
I didn't realize this last night, but Comet Lemmon actually moved considerably against the background stars over the 20 minutes we looked at it!
October 20, 2025 at 10:06 PM
I didn't realize this last night, but Comet Lemmon actually moved considerably against the background stars over the 20 minutes we looked at it!