David Epstein
@davidnotdave.bsky.social
Literature major, then neuroscience Ph.D., then addiction researcher. Enough-knowledge-to-endanger-myself in social sciences and statistics. He/him. Views my own.
He's right. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘈𝘳𝘦 𝘔𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴 (2013) deserves FAR more good attention.
It has all the things that make zombie movies potentially great, without the thing that makes them bad (they inevitably try to have fun with gun violence; this one doesn't, at least not yet, with 30 minutes to go).
It has all the things that make zombie movies potentially great, without the thing that makes them bad (they inevitably try to have fun with gun violence; this one doesn't, at least not yet, with 30 minutes to go).
My brother recommended the horror movie There Are Monsters (2013) and friends it was just wonderful. Unsettling and freaky. Jumpscares aplenty, but also pure creepiness.
November 13, 2025 at 4:49 AM
He's right. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘈𝘳𝘦 𝘔𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴 (2013) deserves FAR more good attention.
It has all the things that make zombie movies potentially great, without the thing that makes them bad (they inevitably try to have fun with gun violence; this one doesn't, at least not yet, with 30 minutes to go).
It has all the things that make zombie movies potentially great, without the thing that makes them bad (they inevitably try to have fun with gun violence; this one doesn't, at least not yet, with 30 minutes to go).
Reposted by David Epstein
Republican rhetoric all week was clearly aiming to either depress turnout or inspire visible maga pushback. Neither happened and the press doesn’t seem particularly interested in exploring the implications of that.
October 19, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Republican rhetoric all week was clearly aiming to either depress turnout or inspire visible maga pushback. Neither happened and the press doesn’t seem particularly interested in exploring the implications of that.
Signs made for tomorrow.
Because every season is spooky season!
Because every season is spooky season!
October 17, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Signs made for tomorrow.
Because every season is spooky season!
Because every season is spooky season!
Most papers presenting psychological questionnaires don't specify whether respondents should see the title of the questionnaire. And papers rarely say whether respondents did see the titles.
Everybody who uses questionnaires: how do you handle titles when the questionnaire gives no guidance?
Everybody who uses questionnaires: how do you handle titles when the questionnaire gives no guidance?
September 18, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Most papers presenting psychological questionnaires don't specify whether respondents should see the title of the questionnaire. And papers rarely say whether respondents did see the titles.
Everybody who uses questionnaires: how do you handle titles when the questionnaire gives no guidance?
Everybody who uses questionnaires: how do you handle titles when the questionnaire gives no guidance?
I’m proud of the way this paper turned out. We said:
--Stop revictimizing people. Don’t say, “You were sexually abused, so you’re more prone to iatrogenic addiction, so we won't prescribe opioids for your pain.”
--Monitor whole communities.
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11469-025-01527-w
--Stop revictimizing people. Don’t say, “You were sexually abused, so you’re more prone to iatrogenic addiction, so we won't prescribe opioids for your pain.”
--Monitor whole communities.
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11469-025-01527-w
August 7, 2025 at 12:36 AM
I’m proud of the way this paper turned out. We said:
--Stop revictimizing people. Don’t say, “You were sexually abused, so you’re more prone to iatrogenic addiction, so we won't prescribe opioids for your pain.”
--Monitor whole communities.
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11469-025-01527-w
--Stop revictimizing people. Don’t say, “You were sexually abused, so you’re more prone to iatrogenic addiction, so we won't prescribe opioids for your pain.”
--Monitor whole communities.
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11469-025-01527-w
When I see IRT used on psychological/psychiatric inventories, I question "difficulty." Low correct-response rates reflect difficulty if items measure knowledge or skill. But symptom/trait/state endorsement? Low "yes" rates may mean many things--not a construct called "difficulty." Change my mind.
July 8, 2025 at 10:44 PM
When I see IRT used on psychological/psychiatric inventories, I question "difficulty." Low correct-response rates reflect difficulty if items measure knowledge or skill. But symptom/trait/state endorsement? Low "yes" rates may mean many things--not a construct called "difficulty." Change my mind.
Unsuccessful trial, good preprint. I fervently hope the final sentence makes it through peer review.
![Micro interventions based on real-time monitoring of affective instability: a proof-of- concept study.
Merlijn Olthof et al.
Excerpt 1 of 3:
Design: We used a quasi-randomized within-person experimental design for testing the micro-intervention effects during increased EWMSD [exponentially weighted moving standard deviation of affect ratings] vs. control periods (with EWMSD below the threshold). At the start of the study, participants were assigned at random to one of two phases: the experimental phase (micro-intervention is applied when there is increased EWMSD) and the control phase (micro-intervention is applied semi-randomly).
[David’s comment: This is the appropriate control for Forer effects, and no one else ever uses it!]
Excerpt 2 of 3:
Interestingly, from the data viewing sessions, we also learned that there was a large heterogeneity in how persons experienced - and reacted to - the intervention and burst measurements. While some persons were really enthusiastic about the intervention, others found it annoying or confronting because they found that they had no time to engage in the intervention. Some persons never actually performed the activity they selected, some nearly always performed it in the next 30 minutes, but others used it as 'a reminder'…
[David’s comment: This is the kind of frankness we need more of.]
Excerpt 3 of 3:
These results can inform future research, which, who knows, may at some point be able test the hypothesis that we were after.
[David’s comment: OK, marry me.]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:7o2boh56sjssyukc6qat5uu6/bafkreifesxbw3k4cmcf3pqh4guujgoj4nbsvvwh6gilry5rklqevvpl7ky@jpeg)
June 28, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Unsuccessful trial, good preprint. I fervently hope the final sentence makes it through peer review.
I've been telling people how the use of full labeling on an ordinal response scale can clarify what you get from a survey/EMA item. I didn't mean this.
A scale for the ages. How exactly is one “a little neutral”?
May 23, 2025 at 9:28 PM
I've been telling people how the use of full labeling on an ordinal response scale can clarify what you get from a survey/EMA item. I didn't mean this.
New weekend of Tesla Takedown protests, new two-sided sign.
(I'm reading 𝘍𝘶𝘯𝘯𝘺 𝘉𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘐𝘵'𝘴 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘦, Christine Wenc's excellent book about the history of The Onion.)
(I'm reading 𝘍𝘶𝘯𝘯𝘺 𝘉𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘐𝘵'𝘴 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘦, Christine Wenc's excellent book about the history of The Onion.)
May 2, 2025 at 10:50 PM
New weekend of Tesla Takedown protests, new two-sided sign.
(I'm reading 𝘍𝘶𝘯𝘯𝘺 𝘉𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘐𝘵'𝘴 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘦, Christine Wenc's excellent book about the history of The Onion.)
(I'm reading 𝘍𝘶𝘯𝘯𝘺 𝘉𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘐𝘵'𝘴 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘦, Christine Wenc's excellent book about the history of The Onion.)
New sign made for tomorrow's Tesla Takedown. As a scientist, I've had it drummed into me--you're always supposed to show data.
April 26, 2025 at 12:07 AM
New sign made for tomorrow's Tesla Takedown. As a scientist, I've had it drummed into me--you're always supposed to show data.
Barnum/Forer effect by proxy: That's when researchers think a published scale measures their construct of interest because the scale has exactly the right title (plus the usual reliability metrics and validity claims). The items on the scale are weird and repetitious, but only respondents see it.
April 11, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Barnum/Forer effect by proxy: That's when researchers think a published scale measures their construct of interest because the scale has exactly the right title (plus the usual reliability metrics and validity claims). The items on the scale are weird and repetitious, but only respondents see it.
My two-sided sign for today's "Hands Off" protest outside the Social Security Administration building in Catonsville, MD.
The Baltimore Banner put the crowd at "over 300," but I think it was 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 over that. And Catonsville is but a suburb.
The Baltimore Banner put the crowd at "over 300," but I think it was 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 over that. And Catonsville is but a suburb.
April 5, 2025 at 8:52 PM
My two-sided sign for today's "Hands Off" protest outside the Social Security Administration building in Catonsville, MD.
The Baltimore Banner put the crowd at "over 300," but I think it was 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 over that. And Catonsville is but a suburb.
The Baltimore Banner put the crowd at "over 300," but I think it was 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 over that. And Catonsville is but a suburb.
There’s more to it, but perhaps one piece of what we’re seeing in national politics is the outcome of a tech/business culture in which affirmative meanings started inhering in word “disrupt.” I was raised to have that word default to the pejorative.
April 3, 2025 at 10:07 PM
There’s more to it, but perhaps one piece of what we’re seeing in national politics is the outcome of a tech/business culture in which affirmative meanings started inhering in word “disrupt.” I was raised to have that word default to the pejorative.
Going cold, turkey.
I saw this paper on April 1, but it was not published on April 1.
I saw this paper on April 1, but it was not published on April 1.
April 1, 2025 at 10:29 PM
Going cold, turkey.
I saw this paper on April 1, but it was not published on April 1.
I saw this paper on April 1, but it was not published on April 1.
This title made me happy out of all proportion to the stimulus. I want to thank it.
Right now it's only a preprint. Together, psychological-science Bluesky, we can commit to editor/reviewer stances that might bring it all the way to publication. And that would be kinda great.
Right now it's only a preprint. Together, psychological-science Bluesky, we can commit to editor/reviewer stances that might bring it all the way to publication. And that would be kinda great.
March 30, 2025 at 3:18 AM
This title made me happy out of all proportion to the stimulus. I want to thank it.
Right now it's only a preprint. Together, psychological-science Bluesky, we can commit to editor/reviewer stances that might bring it all the way to publication. And that would be kinda great.
Right now it's only a preprint. Together, psychological-science Bluesky, we can commit to editor/reviewer stances that might bring it all the way to publication. And that would be kinda great.
On both sides of the road in Owings Mills, MD, there were ~200 of us making it less socially comfortable to do business with Tesla. It matters. Purchases are elections that happen every day.
Nearly nonstop response of thumbs-up honking from drivers-by, including 18-wheelers. Salt of the earth.
Nearly nonstop response of thumbs-up honking from drivers-by, including 18-wheelers. Salt of the earth.
March 15, 2025 at 7:38 PM
On both sides of the road in Owings Mills, MD, there were ~200 of us making it less socially comfortable to do business with Tesla. It matters. Purchases are elections that happen every day.
Nearly nonstop response of thumbs-up honking from drivers-by, including 18-wheelers. Salt of the earth.
Nearly nonstop response of thumbs-up honking from drivers-by, including 18-wheelers. Salt of the earth.
Reposted by David Epstein
-‘Internalizing’ is much narrower than the current model suggests (but a broader dimension like ‘emotional dysfunction’ could be useful to group the fear, distress, eating pathology, sexual problems, and somatoform domains)
-Harmful substance use should be distinct from core externalizing
2/2
-Harmful substance use should be distinct from core externalizing
2/2
January 8, 2025 at 1:51 AM
-‘Internalizing’ is much narrower than the current model suggests (but a broader dimension like ‘emotional dysfunction’ could be useful to group the fear, distress, eating pathology, sexual problems, and somatoform domains)
-Harmful substance use should be distinct from core externalizing
2/2
-Harmful substance use should be distinct from core externalizing
2/2
Article in JAMA Psychiatry: "Are Psychiatric Nosologies Limiting the Success of Clinical Prediction Models?" Authors say yes.
Eh.
Counterpoint 1 of 2: Automated detection/prediction is usually also inaccurate for discrete, verifiable behavioral events, such as instances of drug use.
(1/2)
Eh.
Counterpoint 1 of 2: Automated detection/prediction is usually also inaccurate for discrete, verifiable behavioral events, such as instances of drug use.
(1/2)
December 10, 2024 at 10:00 PM
Article in JAMA Psychiatry: "Are Psychiatric Nosologies Limiting the Success of Clinical Prediction Models?" Authors say yes.
Eh.
Counterpoint 1 of 2: Automated detection/prediction is usually also inaccurate for discrete, verifiable behavioral events, such as instances of drug use.
(1/2)
Eh.
Counterpoint 1 of 2: Automated detection/prediction is usually also inaccurate for discrete, verifiable behavioral events, such as instances of drug use.
(1/2)
I had an invitation lined up for my virtual attendance to #ACNP2024, but we left it too long, and ACNP has shut the door. Attendees, please post prolifically about the goings-on. I ask with puppydog eyes. If puppydog eyes could talk.
December 6, 2024 at 9:20 PM
I had an invitation lined up for my virtual attendance to #ACNP2024, but we left it too long, and ACNP has shut the door. Attendees, please post prolifically about the goings-on. I ask with puppydog eyes. If puppydog eyes could talk.
People who study norm-based interventions for behavior change: Is there any work that speaks, even indirectly, to the social effects of "We believe..." yard signs and other such displays of decency?
November 23, 2024 at 9:00 PM
People who study norm-based interventions for behavior change: Is there any work that speaks, even indirectly, to the social effects of "We believe..." yard signs and other such displays of decency?
I'm here mostly for the next incarnation of what was Science Twitter, but sometimes I'll also post things such as this.
By "this," I mean a life-giving, strength-bolstering playlist for our times, from my friend Meredith.
By "this," I mean a life-giving, strength-bolstering playlist for our times, from my friend Meredith.
Here, America, I made you a playlist.
The Revolution Will Be Live
open.spotify.com
November 16, 2024 at 10:04 PM
I'm here mostly for the next incarnation of what was Science Twitter, but sometimes I'll also post things such as this.
By "this," I mean a life-giving, strength-bolstering playlist for our times, from my friend Meredith.
By "this," I mean a life-giving, strength-bolstering playlist for our times, from my friend Meredith.
I'd like to see more of this in science: say what decisions you made, in what order, and why.
Btw, it's not about preregistration. Dishonest people can "preregister" analyses they've already done. Honest people can be honest without preregistering. It's the honesty and clarity I applaud.
Btw, it's not about preregistration. Dishonest people can "preregister" analyses they've already done. Honest people can be honest without preregistering. It's the honesty and clarity I applaud.
November 15, 2024 at 9:58 PM
I'd like to see more of this in science: say what decisions you made, in what order, and why.
Btw, it's not about preregistration. Dishonest people can "preregister" analyses they've already done. Honest people can be honest without preregistering. It's the honesty and clarity I applaud.
Btw, it's not about preregistration. Dishonest people can "preregister" analyses they've already done. Honest people can be honest without preregistering. It's the honesty and clarity I applaud.
Apparently I've tweeted 1,295 times. Whereas, here, I've made only 30 noises. So I have a self-conscious feeling like I'm putting prints into flat snow.
November 11, 2024 at 4:17 AM
Apparently I've tweeted 1,295 times. Whereas, here, I've made only 30 noises. So I have a self-conscious feeling like I'm putting prints into flat snow.
I think this is the first year we've ever created a pumpkin situation here. Jack o'liberty.
Treats were issued a moment ago to a smol RBG.
Treats were issued a moment ago to a smol RBG.
October 31, 2024 at 10:22 PM
I think this is the first year we've ever created a pumpkin situation here. Jack o'liberty.
Treats were issued a moment ago to a smol RBG.
Treats were issued a moment ago to a smol RBG.
That would work.
October 14, 2024 at 9:05 PM
That would work.