David Epstein
@davidnotdave.bsky.social
Literature major, then neuroscience Ph.D., then addiction researcher. Enough-knowledge-to-endanger-myself in social sciences and statistics. He/him. Views my own.
Signs made for tomorrow.
Because every season is spooky season!
Because every season is spooky season!
October 17, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Signs made for tomorrow.
Because every season is spooky season!
Because every season is spooky season!
I’m proud of the way this paper turned out. We said:
--Stop revictimizing people. Don’t say, “You were sexually abused, so you’re more prone to iatrogenic addiction, so we won't prescribe opioids for your pain.”
--Monitor whole communities.
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11469-025-01527-w
--Stop revictimizing people. Don’t say, “You were sexually abused, so you’re more prone to iatrogenic addiction, so we won't prescribe opioids for your pain.”
--Monitor whole communities.
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11469-025-01527-w
August 7, 2025 at 12:36 AM
I’m proud of the way this paper turned out. We said:
--Stop revictimizing people. Don’t say, “You were sexually abused, so you’re more prone to iatrogenic addiction, so we won't prescribe opioids for your pain.”
--Monitor whole communities.
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11469-025-01527-w
--Stop revictimizing people. Don’t say, “You were sexually abused, so you’re more prone to iatrogenic addiction, so we won't prescribe opioids for your pain.”
--Monitor whole communities.
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11469-025-01527-w
Unsuccessful trial, good preprint. I fervently hope the final sentence makes it through peer review.
![Micro interventions based on real-time monitoring of affective instability: a proof-of- concept study.
Merlijn Olthof et al.
Excerpt 1 of 3:
Design: We used a quasi-randomized within-person experimental design for testing the micro-intervention effects during increased EWMSD [exponentially weighted moving standard deviation of affect ratings] vs. control periods (with EWMSD below the threshold). At the start of the study, participants were assigned at random to one of two phases: the experimental phase (micro-intervention is applied when there is increased EWMSD) and the control phase (micro-intervention is applied semi-randomly).
[David’s comment: This is the appropriate control for Forer effects, and no one else ever uses it!]
Excerpt 2 of 3:
Interestingly, from the data viewing sessions, we also learned that there was a large heterogeneity in how persons experienced - and reacted to - the intervention and burst measurements. While some persons were really enthusiastic about the intervention, others found it annoying or confronting because they found that they had no time to engage in the intervention. Some persons never actually performed the activity they selected, some nearly always performed it in the next 30 minutes, but others used it as 'a reminder'…
[David’s comment: This is the kind of frankness we need more of.]
Excerpt 3 of 3:
These results can inform future research, which, who knows, may at some point be able test the hypothesis that we were after.
[David’s comment: OK, marry me.]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:7o2boh56sjssyukc6qat5uu6/bafkreifesxbw3k4cmcf3pqh4guujgoj4nbsvvwh6gilry5rklqevvpl7ky@jpeg)
June 28, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Unsuccessful trial, good preprint. I fervently hope the final sentence makes it through peer review.
Pinker's assertion about trigger warnings (that they "can do more harm than good") is based on research that doesn't generalize to the intended situations, as I told the author five years ago.
May 24, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Pinker's assertion about trigger warnings (that they "can do more harm than good") is based on research that doesn't generalize to the intended situations, as I told the author five years ago.
New weekend of Tesla Takedown protests, new two-sided sign.
(I'm reading 𝘍𝘶𝘯𝘯𝘺 𝘉𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘐𝘵'𝘴 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘦, Christine Wenc's excellent book about the history of The Onion.)
(I'm reading 𝘍𝘶𝘯𝘯𝘺 𝘉𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘐𝘵'𝘴 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘦, Christine Wenc's excellent book about the history of The Onion.)
May 2, 2025 at 10:50 PM
New weekend of Tesla Takedown protests, new two-sided sign.
(I'm reading 𝘍𝘶𝘯𝘯𝘺 𝘉𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘐𝘵'𝘴 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘦, Christine Wenc's excellent book about the history of The Onion.)
(I'm reading 𝘍𝘶𝘯𝘯𝘺 𝘉𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘐𝘵'𝘴 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘦, Christine Wenc's excellent book about the history of The Onion.)
New sign made for tomorrow's Tesla Takedown. As a scientist, I've had it drummed into me--you're always supposed to show data.
April 26, 2025 at 12:07 AM
New sign made for tomorrow's Tesla Takedown. As a scientist, I've had it drummed into me--you're always supposed to show data.
My two-sided sign for today's "Hands Off" protest outside the Social Security Administration building in Catonsville, MD.
The Baltimore Banner put the crowd at "over 300," but I think it was 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 over that. And Catonsville is but a suburb.
The Baltimore Banner put the crowd at "over 300," but I think it was 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 over that. And Catonsville is but a suburb.
April 5, 2025 at 8:52 PM
My two-sided sign for today's "Hands Off" protest outside the Social Security Administration building in Catonsville, MD.
The Baltimore Banner put the crowd at "over 300," but I think it was 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 over that. And Catonsville is but a suburb.
The Baltimore Banner put the crowd at "over 300," but I think it was 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 over that. And Catonsville is but a suburb.
Going cold, turkey.
I saw this paper on April 1, but it was not published on April 1.
I saw this paper on April 1, but it was not published on April 1.
April 1, 2025 at 10:29 PM
Going cold, turkey.
I saw this paper on April 1, but it was not published on April 1.
I saw this paper on April 1, but it was not published on April 1.
This title made me happy out of all proportion to the stimulus. I want to thank it.
Right now it's only a preprint. Together, psychological-science Bluesky, we can commit to editor/reviewer stances that might bring it all the way to publication. And that would be kinda great.
Right now it's only a preprint. Together, psychological-science Bluesky, we can commit to editor/reviewer stances that might bring it all the way to publication. And that would be kinda great.
March 30, 2025 at 3:18 AM
This title made me happy out of all proportion to the stimulus. I want to thank it.
Right now it's only a preprint. Together, psychological-science Bluesky, we can commit to editor/reviewer stances that might bring it all the way to publication. And that would be kinda great.
Right now it's only a preprint. Together, psychological-science Bluesky, we can commit to editor/reviewer stances that might bring it all the way to publication. And that would be kinda great.
On both sides of the road in Owings Mills, MD, there were ~200 of us making it less socially comfortable to do business with Tesla. It matters. Purchases are elections that happen every day.
Nearly nonstop response of thumbs-up honking from drivers-by, including 18-wheelers. Salt of the earth.
Nearly nonstop response of thumbs-up honking from drivers-by, including 18-wheelers. Salt of the earth.
March 15, 2025 at 7:38 PM
On both sides of the road in Owings Mills, MD, there were ~200 of us making it less socially comfortable to do business with Tesla. It matters. Purchases are elections that happen every day.
Nearly nonstop response of thumbs-up honking from drivers-by, including 18-wheelers. Salt of the earth.
Nearly nonstop response of thumbs-up honking from drivers-by, including 18-wheelers. Salt of the earth.
You've created a situation whereby I have to post one of my old tweets.
December 7, 2024 at 2:20 AM
You've created a situation whereby I have to post one of my old tweets.
I had an invitation lined up for my virtual attendance to #ACNP2024, but we left it too long, and ACNP has shut the door. Attendees, please post prolifically about the goings-on. I ask with puppydog eyes. If puppydog eyes could talk.
December 6, 2024 at 9:20 PM
I had an invitation lined up for my virtual attendance to #ACNP2024, but we left it too long, and ACNP has shut the door. Attendees, please post prolifically about the goings-on. I ask with puppydog eyes. If puppydog eyes could talk.
I haven't posted enough for this RoasterBot to work well, but it kinda worked well anyway.
December 1, 2024 at 3:47 AM
I haven't posted enough for this RoasterBot to work well, but it kinda worked well anyway.
I'd like to see more of this in science: say what decisions you made, in what order, and why.
Btw, it's not about preregistration. Dishonest people can "preregister" analyses they've already done. Honest people can be honest without preregistering. It's the honesty and clarity I applaud.
Btw, it's not about preregistration. Dishonest people can "preregister" analyses they've already done. Honest people can be honest without preregistering. It's the honesty and clarity I applaud.
November 15, 2024 at 9:58 PM
I'd like to see more of this in science: say what decisions you made, in what order, and why.
Btw, it's not about preregistration. Dishonest people can "preregister" analyses they've already done. Honest people can be honest without preregistering. It's the honesty and clarity I applaud.
Btw, it's not about preregistration. Dishonest people can "preregister" analyses they've already done. Honest people can be honest without preregistering. It's the honesty and clarity I applaud.
I think this is the first year we've ever created a pumpkin situation here. Jack o'liberty.
Treats were issued a moment ago to a smol RBG.
Treats were issued a moment ago to a smol RBG.
October 31, 2024 at 10:22 PM
I think this is the first year we've ever created a pumpkin situation here. Jack o'liberty.
Treats were issued a moment ago to a smol RBG.
Treats were issued a moment ago to a smol RBG.
That would work.
October 14, 2024 at 9:05 PM
That would work.
And Christina didn't see a thing.
(I have no good explanation for why I did this.)
(I have no good explanation for why I did this.)
June 16, 2024 at 2:54 AM
And Christina didn't see a thing.
(I have no good explanation for why I did this.)
(I have no good explanation for why I did this.)
Our new #kratom paper explains frankly why we're putting these data into press now. Sometimes you publish because you don't want to soft-pedal or file-drawer counterpoints to your other work.
www.frontiersin.org/journals/pharmacology/articles/10.3389/fphar.2024.1412397/
www.frontiersin.org/journals/pharmacology/articles/10.3389/fphar.2024.1412397/
June 14, 2024 at 4:40 AM
Our new #kratom paper explains frankly why we're putting these data into press now. Sometimes you publish because you don't want to soft-pedal or file-drawer counterpoints to your other work.
www.frontiersin.org/journals/pharmacology/articles/10.3389/fphar.2024.1412397/
www.frontiersin.org/journals/pharmacology/articles/10.3389/fphar.2024.1412397/
"Did you come up with a snappy title for our paper?"
"I sure did!"
"Great! And you checked to make sure it hasn't been used before?"
"Oh, this is guaranteed fresh."
"I sure did!"
"Great! And you checked to make sure it hasn't been used before?"
"Oh, this is guaranteed fresh."
April 18, 2024 at 12:48 AM
"Did you come up with a snappy title for our paper?"
"I sure did!"
"Great! And you checked to make sure it hasn't been used before?"
"Oh, this is guaranteed fresh."
"I sure did!"
"Great! And you checked to make sure it hasn't been used before?"
"Oh, this is guaranteed fresh."
This thing is making a reappearance on Twitter, and no one appears to know that the answer is zero. Good luck claiming your earned-income tax credit on those gains, cowboy.
March 16, 2024 at 4:10 PM
This thing is making a reappearance on Twitter, and no one appears to know that the answer is zero. Good luck claiming your earned-income tax credit on those gains, cowboy.
You could say that scientists have a compulsion to fold things, but that would be unfair. Scientists have a compulsion to fold things a specified number of times.
(Screenshot: quasirandom selection from papers I've recently read.)
(Screenshot: quasirandom selection from papers I've recently read.)
March 8, 2024 at 11:15 PM
You could say that scientists have a compulsion to fold things, but that would be unfair. Scientists have a compulsion to fold things a specified number of times.
(Screenshot: quasirandom selection from papers I've recently read.)
(Screenshot: quasirandom selection from papers I've recently read.)
"Orange you glad we didn't maintain a data column labeled 'methamphetamine'?"
February 19, 2024 at 7:42 PM
"Orange you glad we didn't maintain a data column labeled 'methamphetamine'?"
And furthermore, I might be willing to die on the same hill as these fellas...
February 16, 2024 at 12:56 AM
And furthermore, I might be willing to die on the same hill as these fellas...
Ah, but that brings us to whether a CI is a cat's-eye or a cliff. I'm a cat's-eye guy myself.
February 16, 2024 at 12:52 AM
Ah, but that brings us to whether a CI is a cat's-eye or a cliff. I'm a cat's-eye guy myself.
I kinda startled myself with this little experiment in power calculations. You can have zero ability to find the effect you're looking for, but more than zero "power," all of which reflects your likelihood of overestimating the effect.
February 15, 2024 at 11:28 PM
I kinda startled myself with this little experiment in power calculations. You can have zero ability to find the effect you're looking for, but more than zero "power," all of which reflects your likelihood of overestimating the effect.